James Harden

I'll likely take a look at the recent extensions signed by fourth-year NBA players in the coming weeks. But there's one thing that requires immediate attention. I would have posted earlier on this topic, but I got caught on the wrong side of Hurricane Sandy, so I spent a few days off the grid.

Anyway, in case you have also been on the wrong side of the storm, the Thunder and Rockets pulled off a doozy of a deal on Saturday.

Houston Gets:
SG James Harden
C   Cole Aldrich
SF Lazar Haywood
SG Daequan Cook

Oklahoma City Gets: 
SG Kevin Martin
SG Jeremy Lamb
2013 first-round pick (from Toronto - doubly protected. 15-30 protected 2013-17; top-3 protected 2013, top-2 protected 2014-15, top-1 protected 2016-17)
2013 first-round pick (from Dallas - top-20 protected through 2017)
2013 second-round pick (from Charlotte)

Aldrich, Haywood, and Cook are largely fill-ins to make the trade work under the salary cap. We can dispose of their impact on the deal quickly. Cook is something of a three-point specialist who struggled with three-pointers last year. Haywood is probably a fringe-NBA player. And Aldrich has averaged just seven minutes per game for his career. None of the three should have much of an impact on Houston this year or going forward.

So this basically breaks down to a deal of Harden for Martin, Lamb, and two top picks. Let's look at Oklahoma City's haul first, in reverse order.

That pick from Dallas could be a long time coming. Dirk Nowitzki is out indefinitely after undergoing knee surgery two weeks ago. The Mavericks have enough talent to squeak into the playoffs, but their combination of over-the-hill veterans (Vince Carter, Elton Brand, Shawn Marion, Eddy Curry) and imperfect in-their-prime players (Darren Collison, Brandon Wright, O.J. Mayo) means they won't be picking outside of the top 20 until a new nucleus forms around a new star. Needless to say, that pick won't bring any returns to the Thunder anytime soon.

The Toronto pick is different. The protections require it to be a lottery pick but outside of the top few selections. It seems like there's a very good chance that the pick gets conveyed this year. Toronto has a below-average roster, but they shouldn't be picking in the top three this year unless they have a couple of serious injuries. Oklahoma City can expect to receive the mid-to-late lottery pick this year. Unfortunately for OKC, mid-to-late lottery picks tend not to become serious impact players. For example, the players drafted after James Harden in the 2009 draft: SG Tyreke Evans, PG Ricky Rubio, PG Jonny Flynn, PG Stephen Curry, PF Jordan Hill, SG DeMar DeRozan, PG Brandon Jennings, SG Terrence Williams, SG Gerald Henderson, PF Tyler Hansbrough, and SF Earl Clark. Only Rubio can truly be thought of as a player with impact potential at this point. Of the others, there are some nice complimentary pieces, but only Curry and Jennings are anything more. Simply put, it's highly unlikely that this pick becomes an elite player, although OKC has a good chance of finding a strong fourth banana or capable third banana.

Jeremy Lamb is a difficult player to peg. He should be a really great fit in the Thunder offense as more of a pure shooter than a slasher. While he is still plenty raw, he could be an excellent shooter within a couple of years. Elite shooting is a great skill; Kyle Korver has carved out a nice career for himself as a spot-up shooter with little other NBA-level skill. But Lamb's ceiling is much higher than Korver. Should he develop the ability to create his own shot, Lamb can be a really great addition. His ceiling is a solid tier below Harden's current status, however, and he is years away from it.

Which brings us to Kevin Martin. Martin is an obvious of a one year rental player as you'll find in a trade. Martin is set to earn a hair under $13M this year and become a free agent this off-season. He is a nice scorer who should mesh well with Durant and Westbrook in much the same way that Lamb may in the future. He is a tremendous free throw shooter who does a nice job getting himself to the line. His deep shooting has regressed in recent years, but he's hardly a poor shooter. Martin has been miscast as a primary scorer in recent years. He should have more success as a third option, although he is also a tier or so below Harden.

As for the centerpiece of the deal, James Harden is a stud. I didn't understand him from the moment I heard about him as a high draft pick through the middle of the 2010-11 season. It seemed like James Harden was going to be known as the guy the Thunder drafted instead of Steph Curry. But The Beard quickly changed my mind. He is a wonderfully creative scorer. He sees the court well and passes, at times, like a strong point guard. Harden shoots three-pointers as well as Kevin Martin. Harden's ability to create his own quality shot is among the top 15 or so players in the league. That's extremely valuable.

Harden's contract seriously complicated the situation. From what I can tell, Harden was willing to accept a "max" contract offer from the Thunder to remain their third option. According to the new collective bargaining agreement, teams are only allowed to have two players with five-year maximum deals. In the case of OKC, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook already posses those contracts, leaving Harden with a four-year max. However, as a result of the trade, Harden was eligible for (and has already signed) a five-year, $80M deal, the full "max" offer.

Evaluating the Trade
We've looked at all the assets that changed hands. So who won? Normally, it takes years to figure out the answer to this question. It could still happen here, especially if something funny happens with the Toronto pick (like the Raptors holding the pick this year, then sending #3 overall to OKC next year).

But this case is clear: it's a decent win for Houston and an enormous loss for Oklahoma City.

Houston has been gunning for an elite player for years. Harden is absolutely an elite player. They immediately wrapped him up for the next half decade. The Rockets are going to have a hard time putting together a championship roster around Harden. By virtue of a pair of poison pill contracts this off-season, the 2014-15 salary cap is going to be really difficult for Houston to manage. Still, there's no doubting they got significantly better in the last six months. Last year's team was centered on Martin, surrounding by solid role players at every other spot: Sam Dalembert, Luis Scola, Chandler Parsons, and Goran Dragic. They have since replaced Dragic with Jeremy Lin and Dalembert with Omer Asik, a pair of high-ceiling yet risky talents. It's not a great group, but Harden and Lin should create an exciting back court with Asik a nice compliment in the middle. Houston should be headed for some playoff trips, albeit as a lower seeded team.

But OKC. Man. In one regard, they were in a tough spot with lots of extension-ready talent and only so much cap space to spare. They wisely locked up both Durant and Westbrook. They also have Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison on solidly team-friendly deals. The two big players with big deals really complicated their cap situation. Kendrick Perkins is due $25.5M over the next three years (including this season). Serge Ibaka's deal, however, is the catch: beginning next year, Ibaka is due $49M over four years. His deal made it nearly impossible to retain Harden.

That sentence should alarm you. Serge Ibaka made retaining James Harden nearly impossible. Ibaka is a really good, valuable player. Harden is a top-20 NBA player. OKC could have flipped Ibaka for picks and had enough space to keep Harden with only minor moves possibly required.

OKC needed to find a way to stay ahead of the Nash-Bryant-Gasol-Howard Lakers and the Wade-James-Bosh Heat. OKC opted to go with only Durant-Westbrook and the hope that Jeremy Lamb grows into something vaguely like, well, James Harden.

Championship windows are inherently fickle. OKC may have just closed their own.

I understand that the Oklahoma City market isn't Los Angeles, New York, or Chicago. I also understand that Clay Bennett is worth roughly $400M. Bennett paid $45M to buy out two years of the team's remaining lease in Seattle. Winning helps to create cash flow. The Thunder already have at least $59M committed to player salaries in each of the next three years; it's not as if they won't be spending. They're trying to avoid paying a luxury tax and essentially given away shots at championships to do so. That's the definition of a terrible choice.

Obtaining an asset on the level of James Harden is difficult for any team to do once. It's effectively impossible for a team to do when that team already has players like Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. There is one big winner from the trade:

The 2012-13 NBA Champion Miami Heat