I'm feeling painfully disheartened by the Bears in light of last weekend's collapse versus the surprisingly hated Seahawks. As if a home loss to a team with a 1-5 road record entering the game wasn't bad enough, Brian Urlacher, Tim Jennings, and Earl Bennett were all lost to injuries that should keep them out for a couple of games. Saddest of all, it appears as though the end of the line is rapidly approaching for Urlacher. The man was an absolute joy to watch, cheer for, and follow. Here's hoping he's got some magic left in those legs for January.
But I digress. The Winter Meetings are upon as, and as the baseball world overwhelms Opryland, I just can't stop thinking about the Cubs. This happens every year around this time. I start trying to figure out what combination of Jason Schmidt and Brian Giles will assure a five-year run of division titles (glad I wasn't the GM for that one). Or I try to convince all of my friends and family that Ted Lilly would be an ideal target (nailed it!). Or I try to talk myself into Zack Greinke coming in to lead a surprisingly strong rotation (still working on that - not like it's going to happen but still).
This year feels a bit different than most years past. Generally, the Chicago club is decent enough that either minor tweaks or one big splash could propel them to October. Obviously, that is not so this year.
But the even bigger difference lingers beneath the surface: the Cubs have some actual prospects. To be fair, the pitching crop is full of raw arms (Pierce Johnson, Duane Underwood, Juan Carlos Paniagua), stalled out developers (Trey McNutt), and unprotected likely Rule 5 draft picks (Nick Struck - why Theo?).
The hitters are a different story. At this time last year, I was hoping for three things: 1) that Javier Baez would do enough in 2012 for me to have hope for a 19-year-old high schooler, 2) that the Cubs would sign Cuban free agent outfielder Jorge Soler, and 3) that the club would bring in an impact player - preferably a pitcher - with the sixth overall pick in the 2012 draft.
We went two for three, but the two both happened in a big way. I'll look at each individually.
Baez
The book on Javier Baez is pretty clear. He's probably going to be able to stick at shortstop, but he won't be an above-average defender there. No problem. He isn't going to impress with gaudy walk numbers as he climbs the organizational ladder. He is, however, going to make loud contact and lots of it. If you skip to the :40 mark of this video, you'll see a bomb to center. Similarly, at 1:10 of this one, the explosion in his bat is obvious. When baseball people think Gary Sheffield when watching you play, that's a good thing. In his full-season debut, Baez put up a combined line of .294/.346/.543 with 16 HR, 13 2B, 6 3B, and 24 (of 29) SB in 80 games. Needless to say, that kind of production screams of an impact player. Baez will get another crack at Daytona (A+) to begin 2013, but I imagine he'll spend at least half of the season at Tennessee (AA) unless things go horribly wrong at Daytona. If he has a huge year, a September cup of coffee isn't entirely out of the question. Realistically, Cubs fans should expect to see Baez at Wrigley Field in the late summer of 2014, permanently arriving to start 2015. As of now, he has the look of a middle-of-the-order bat.
Soler
I was senselessly excited by the prospect of bringing in Soler. As many of you know, with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement severely limiting the amount that teams can pay in bonus money to foreign prospects, Soler and fellow defector OF Yasiel Puig represented the last two prizes of the pre-capped international market. The Cubs did well to nab Soler for nine years and $30M, especially in light of Puig inking with the Dodgers for seven years and $42M days later. Soler is the classic power-hitting corner outfield prospect. He has a big, muscular frame, yet he runs well given his size (it is likely that, if he adds the 20 pounds of expected weight in the next couple of years, the speed aspect of his game will largely dissipate). As Soler cost only cash (unlike acquiring players via trade or signing free agents that formerly required draft pick compensation), I was ecstatic about the investment. And he delivered as well. In 34 games at the rookie level and for Peoria (A), Soler put up a line of .299/.369/.463 with 5 HR, 7 2B, and 12 (of 13) SB. Much like Baez, the thing that stands out most about Soler is the noise. When he connects cleanly on a pitch, the sound is mesmerizing. The sound of the crack on this bomb is far less impressive due to crowd noise surrounding the videographer, but the reaction of the fans makes clear what the video of a ball flying over a deck in left field already conveys: there is a ton of power in Soler's game. Soler is 10 months older than Baez, but given his adjustment to the United States and professional baseball here, I expect that Soler will be on a similar timetable, beginning perhaps with a short sting at Kane County (new A affiliate) this year before moving up to Daytona. If all goes well, he could reach Tennessee before the end of the season, placing himself in position for a trip to Chicago in 2014 in advance of a 2015 full-time job.
Almora
Teams can't be perfect. That's not to say that I am either. But entering draft day 2012, I had a list of players about whom I would be particularly excited to obtain with the #6 selection: RHP Kyle Zimmer (went #5 to KC), SS Carlos Correa (went #1 to HOU), RHP Mark Appel (went #8 to PIT - bonus concerns), OF Byron Buxton (went #2 to MIN), RHP Lucas Giolito (went #16 to WSH - injury concerns) and RHP Kevin Gausman (went #4 to BAL). By draft day, the one player under consideration to which I had a serious aversion was Almora. From every single scouting report I can find, Almora projects to be something like Shane Victorino. Not Victorino's incredible 2011 season; the rest of Victorino's fine career. Almora is expected to play a strong center field, hit for average power (15-20 HR), steal a handful of bases (15-20), hit for solid average, and draw enough walks to get on base well. Overall, if Almora reaches his widely-held projection, he will be a strong player to add to the fold. I'll enjoy his contribution. However, I just cannot get on board with the Almora selection. When drafting at #6, the team needs to seek out a true impact player, the kind that costs $20M+ on the open market, not a $10-12M player. That doesn't even mention the system's desperate need for impact pitching (to be fair, the Cubs' seven subsequent picks were all used on pitchers). Almora's projections just don't convey enough hope in me that he will be able to impact games. It's possible that Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer view him as a possible leadoff man with good pop and excellent defense, a table setter for Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, Baez, and Soler. I just hate that the #6 overall pick comes with such a low ceiling. He did hit well in his debut where he split between the rookie league and Boise (A-) posting a line of .321/.331/.464 with 2 HR, 12 2B, 1 3B, and 5 SB (of 7) in 33 games. He just doesn't offer much on which to hope.
It's obviously much too early to be so bullish on Almora. I realize that. While I believe that his pre-pitch movement is much too extreme, he is years of development away from Chicago. He could be a perennial All-Star by the time my children are thinking about applying for college. That's the nature of drafts: you tend to like some guys more than you should and others less so.
In the coming months, I will do a more in-depth look at the system, examining position groups to see which will need the most help in the future and which appear relatively stable. For now, hopefully this introduction whets your appetite.
*bearish
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