First Basemen
2012 Overview: While the catching situation went from shaky to dire in 2012, first base could not have been more different. After elite 1B Derrek Lee held down the position from 2004-2010, stopgap Carlos Pena enjoyed a solid 2011 at the position with little hope of being a long-term solution. With Pena out of the picture, Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein got creative in filling a spot where a homegrown option hadn't truly been developed since Mark Grace (no hard feelings, Hee Seop Choi).
After three straight years of eviscerating AAA pitching, Bryan LaHair was given an everyday job and ran with the opportunity. He rode an obscene April (.390.471/.780/1.251) and strong May (.253/.343/.448/.792) to a surprise All Star selection. Unfortunately, the wheels came off shortly thereafter and LaHair failed to produce a wRC+ higher than 88 after May, unacceptably poor production from an offense-only first baseman. Already 29 and having posted a stunningly decrepit .292 OPS versus left-handed pitching, LaHair was unlikely to be a long-term solution himself. He slipped into obscurity before producing a season-ending walk-off single.
Largely due to LaHair's vicious splits, utility man Jeff Baker found himself receiving a handful of starts at first. However, Baker's traditional lefty-mashing bat failed him, making him largely an afterthought in a deadline trade to Atlanta.
Thankfully, in the offseason, Hoyer and Epstein made a splashy move, trading 2008 first-round pick pitcher Andrew Cashner and outfielder Kyung-Min Na to San Diego for 1B Anthony Rizzo and pitcher Zach Cates. Those who have followed the story know about the many acquisitions of Rizzo, but for those who haven't heard it, here's a brief timeline for your amusement:
2007: Rizzo is drafted in the sixth round by Theo Epstein (GM) and Jed Hoyer (Assistant GM) of the Boston Red Sox.
2010: Rizzo is traded from Boston (Epstein) to San Diego for Adrian Gonzalez. Hoyer was the new San Diego GM.
2012: Rizzo is traded from San Diego to the Cubs; Epstein is the new Cubs President while Hoyer is the new GM
So, in total, Rizzo has been acquired by Epstein twice, Hoyer three teams, and dealt by Epstein once. Pfew. He also overcame Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2008. Hopefully he's found a place where he can settle in, chaos free.
Rizzo has hit at every level. There's little doubt that his 6'3", 220 lbs. lefty frame can carry big power totals and he has produced a wRC+ of at least 118 at every level except in the majors. Even though, despite his horrendous MLB debut with San Diego in 2011, he posted a strong .285/.342/.463/.805 line for the Cubs in half a season of work this year. He is going to be a liability on the basepaths, but thus far his glove has been an asset. He has the look of a player who could produce .280/.350/.500 lines for the next decade with 30 home runs annually while manning the #3 or #4 spots in the lineup. Concerns over his disastrous Padre debut are largely a thing of the past after his insane .342/.405/.696/1.101 line at AAA was followed with his strong showing for the Cubs. Even when his strikeout rate rises, he should be a strong offensive force in the middle of the lineup. Although he has shown a massive platoon split in the majors, his AAA split was mostly negligible, so like Welington Castillo, the Cubs should give Rizzo an everyday shot before determining that he needs a partner who can hit left-handed pitching. Rizzo has just under one year of major league service time, so he is controllable through 2018.
Largely unknown 2009 21st round pick Greg Rohan turned in another strong season in 2012. On the heels of a .323/.378/.478/.856 showing in 2011 between Peoria and Daytona, Rohan ran his 2012 line to .282/.349/.491/.839 across three levels, from Daytona to Tennessee and finally Iowa. He enjoyed a solid uptick in power, reaching 21 home runs for the season. Unfortunately, I cannot find his righty/lefty splits for 2011 and 2012 (milb.com only has his limited winter league splits). Regardless, as a right-handed hitting first baseman, there's a chance that Rohan - who turns 27 in May - could carve out an unexpected niche for himself as Rizzo's complement, a right-handed bench bat who can pinch hit and spell Rizzo against tough lefties.
Tennessee 1B Justin Bour turned in another solid, if unspectacular, season as he continues to climb the organizational ladder. Bour lacks the kind of impact power often required of first basemen as his .283/.360/.455/.815 line shows, but the 24-year-old has a chance to keep climbing like Rohan, although he may be blocked into another year at Tennessee. Regardless, it's unlikely that Bour will make much of an impact as a major leaguer, even if he makes it as an extra bat.
Daytona 1Bs Richard Jones and Rebel Ridling are non-prospects. Same for Peoria's Ryan Cuneo and Paul Hoilman. Boise's Rock Shoulders could be a useful player, but his development is likely to be extremely lengthy as he learns to harness his power stroke.
The organization's remaining first baseman has had no trouble with his power stroke. Dan Vogelbach, the team's 2011 second round selection out of a Florida high school, has arguably the system's worst baseball body at 6'0" and generously listed at only 250 lbs. Vogelbach blistered rookie league pitching with a 166 wRC+ (.324/.391/.686/1.077), then continued the onslaught upon his call up to Boise for short season ball (189 wRC+: .322/.423/.608/1.031). I'm yet to find a scouting report that questions his bat's ability to play everyday in the majors. The defense and baserunning are another story. It seems unlikely that he will be able to man a position on the diamond, and while he would possess oodles of value as a designated hitter, that value cannot be provided directly to the Cubs. Still, Vogelbach's development will be fun to watch, especially if he gets moved to an outfield corner as an experiment.
2013 and Beyond: 2013 represents the next step in Rizzo's career as he will arrive at Spring Training with a major league starting job waiting for him. I'm certainly hoping that he can improve versus lefties while maintaining his current success versus righties. He should be the long-time first baseman and a reliably above-average or better starter.
The situation in the minors is less clear but plenty interesting. Rohan can make himself into a legitimate MLB bench player with another strong year. Shoulders can make himself into a more interesting prospect with some improvements. And Vogelbach's defense will be tightly followed. There should be plenty of optimism here.
Overall Perception: It's hard to beat having an above-average starter who is just 23 and controllable for six years. Throw in a high-level prospect in Vogelbach and this is a really strong group.
Final Rating: 8.5
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