* - Denotes wild card
1. Tampa Bay
Projected Wins: 89
Explanation: The Tampa Bay offense is best described as this: Longoria, Zobrist, a bit of Jennings, and pray for rain. However, the Rays pitching staff is so good, the team will ride the arms into October. Ace David Price dominated the American League en route to the 2012 Cy Young award. He has been remarkably consistent and he is a very safe bet to produce another excellent year in what figures to be his final full campaign in Tampa. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are as good of a 2-3 combination as exists in the game. The Rays fill in their final two spots with Alex Cobb, Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona), Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi. That quartet is as good as many teams second through fifth starters. The Rays will throw a good starting pitcher in every game in 2013, a feature that should be just enough to overcome their anemic offense. Then again, power prospect Wil Myers could excel as a rookie and push the win total into the 90s.
Player to Watch: Myers. Tampa has never been in a position to take on big contracts, so any impact additions tend to come from within the organization. Acquired in the James Shields blockbuster, Myers could push Zobrist to the second spot in the lineup, occupying the fourth spot behind Longoria and giving the top of the Tampa lineup that juggernaut look that it currently lacks.
Projected Wins: 89
Explanation: The Tampa Bay offense is best described as this: Longoria, Zobrist, a bit of Jennings, and pray for rain. However, the Rays pitching staff is so good, the team will ride the arms into October. Ace David Price dominated the American League en route to the 2012 Cy Young award. He has been remarkably consistent and he is a very safe bet to produce another excellent year in what figures to be his final full campaign in Tampa. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are as good of a 2-3 combination as exists in the game. The Rays fill in their final two spots with Alex Cobb, Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona), Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi. That quartet is as good as many teams second through fifth starters. The Rays will throw a good starting pitcher in every game in 2013, a feature that should be just enough to overcome their anemic offense. Then again, power prospect Wil Myers could excel as a rookie and push the win total into the 90s.
Player to Watch: Myers. Tampa has never been in a position to take on big contracts, so any impact additions tend to come from within the organization. Acquired in the James Shields blockbuster, Myers could push Zobrist to the second spot in the lineup, occupying the fourth spot behind Longoria and giving the top of the Tampa lineup that juggernaut look that it currently lacks.
2. *Toronto
Projected Wins: 87
Explanation: The top of the Toronto lineup looks like that of a World Series contender with Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. The bottom five, on the other hand, should provide only defense unless Colby Rasmus can finally progress toward his considerable ceiling. More importantly for the Jays, their offseason facelift gives them a mostly-new starting rotation of big names. Reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey should be good, although some regression is expected after a huge spike in strikeouts in 2012. Brandon Morrow should be strong while J.A. Happ is a good fifth option. Toronto's season likely hangs on the free agent season of Josh Johnson and the failing left arm of Mark Buehrle. Buehrle showed signs of the end last season in Miami and represents a huge risk for the Jays. Johnson should have a big year, but health was a big issue in 2011, so he needs to make 30+ starts. If Toronto does manage to reach the postseason, their bullpen will propel them there with the excellent tandem of Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos nailing down wins.
Player to Watch: Johnson. A big season could leave him as the top arm to reach the free agent market. An injury-riddled year likely renders him a Scott Baker-type on the market, fishing for a one-year deal to reestablish his value.
3. Boston
Projected Wins: 83
Explanation: The Red Sox are at something of a crossroads as an organization. After a surprising 69-93 2012 campaign, the front office added veteran starter Ryan Dempster, the big bat of Mike Napoli, and Shane Victrino's all-around game. However, star center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury will hit free agency after the year, and the team's two best pitching prospects, Matt Barnes and Allen Webster, should reach Boston this season. With mainstays Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz continuing to anchor the lineup, the Sox should have a good year but not a special one.
Player to Watch: Ellsbury. After injuries in 2010 and 2012, the dynamic center fielder figures to get himself a nine figure deal in the offseason if he plays a full year with good results. Should he suffer through another injury-marred year, he will have to choose between a one-year deal and a multi-year deal with a much lower dollar figure. There's a ton at stake for Ellsbury, a player this writer hopes to see on the north side of Chicago next year.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 80
Explanation: Despite the name on the front of the uniform, this Yankees team screams average with a couple of elite players (CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera) surrounded by a heap of scrubs (Lyle Overbay, Chris Stewart, Eduardo Nunez, Vernon Wells). The latter group should be replaced at some point during the season by established former stars Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter. However, the ceiling for those stars is much lower than it was when the team signed them to gaudy contracts. The Yankees were a fringe playoff team with full seasons of the stars; without them, the postseason is out of reach.
Player to Watch: Granderson. The 32-year-old center fielder followed an electric 2011 season by bashing 43 home runs in 2012. However, Granderson managed only a .319 on-base percentage and struck out in a career-high 28.5% of his plate appearances while swiping just 10 bases. A return to his career-average .341 OBP could mean a huge payday for the Chicago native.
5. Baltimore
Projected Wins: 76
Explanation: Buck Showalter should have Manager of the Decade wrapped up solely based on his 2012 performance. The Baltimore core of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Weiters is exciting and strong. Further, the group is complemented by mega-prospects Manny Machado and ace Dylan Bundy with big starter Kevin Gausman not far behind. However, the depth offensively is average at best and the starting rotation lacks a single truly exciting arm. If Bundy and Gausman reach the majors quickly and pitch to their ability, the team could contend for a playoff spot again. However, that's too tall of an order to ask. The 2012 Orioles outscored their opponents by just seven runs, yet somehow exceeded their Pythagorean win-loss record by an astounding 11 wins. Lightning tends not to strike the same place twice.
Player to Watch: Bundy. He's the most exciting pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. That says enough. Hopefully his spring training elbow flare up is a minor setback and not a sign of things to come.
Player to Watch: Ellsbury. After injuries in 2010 and 2012, the dynamic center fielder figures to get himself a nine figure deal in the offseason if he plays a full year with good results. Should he suffer through another injury-marred year, he will have to choose between a one-year deal and a multi-year deal with a much lower dollar figure. There's a ton at stake for Ellsbury, a player this writer hopes to see on the north side of Chicago next year.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 80
Explanation: Despite the name on the front of the uniform, this Yankees team screams average with a couple of elite players (CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera) surrounded by a heap of scrubs (Lyle Overbay, Chris Stewart, Eduardo Nunez, Vernon Wells). The latter group should be replaced at some point during the season by established former stars Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter. However, the ceiling for those stars is much lower than it was when the team signed them to gaudy contracts. The Yankees were a fringe playoff team with full seasons of the stars; without them, the postseason is out of reach.
Player to Watch: Granderson. The 32-year-old center fielder followed an electric 2011 season by bashing 43 home runs in 2012. However, Granderson managed only a .319 on-base percentage and struck out in a career-high 28.5% of his plate appearances while swiping just 10 bases. A return to his career-average .341 OBP could mean a huge payday for the Chicago native.
5. Baltimore
Projected Wins: 76
Explanation: Buck Showalter should have Manager of the Decade wrapped up solely based on his 2012 performance. The Baltimore core of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Weiters is exciting and strong. Further, the group is complemented by mega-prospects Manny Machado and ace Dylan Bundy with big starter Kevin Gausman not far behind. However, the depth offensively is average at best and the starting rotation lacks a single truly exciting arm. If Bundy and Gausman reach the majors quickly and pitch to their ability, the team could contend for a playoff spot again. However, that's too tall of an order to ask. The 2012 Orioles outscored their opponents by just seven runs, yet somehow exceeded their Pythagorean win-loss record by an astounding 11 wins. Lightning tends not to strike the same place twice.
Player to Watch: Bundy. He's the most exciting pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. That says enough. Hopefully his spring training elbow flare up is a minor setback and not a sign of things to come.
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