The National League East has been a tumultuous place for teams not based in Atlanta. The Mets began the 2000s with a World Series appearance but otherwise endured a lackluster decade and currently the team is in the midst of a changing of the guard. The Nationals were baseball's doormat for years but drafted well for a couple of years and announced their presence as serious players in 2012. The Phillies won a World Series and played for another at the end of the last decade, but the team seems likely to have a wildly different roster when they return to that level. Finally, the Marlins at the poster child for wild fluctuations, sandwiching rousing success with horrifying failure. Despite this reality, the division's teams seem easier to peg in 2013 than ever before.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Atlanta
Projected Wins: 95
Explanation: While I do feel a bit conflicted for picking such a big season out of the Braves given their fiery hot start to the year, I have not picked another team to win the division since the 1990s, so there is authenticity here. Entering the season, Atlanta had six excellent regulars including superstars Justin Upton and Jason Heyward, and the team had holes only at third base and catcher. Although Brian McCann's recovery from offseason shoulder surgery has gone poorly, the unknown Evan Gattis has shown that his wildly successful 2012 across three minor league levels was no fluke. If Gattis can be even an average regular all year, Atlanta could eclipse 100 wins even when Paul Maholm returns to Earth thanks to their excellent pitching depth with extremely high ceilings.
Player to Watch: For the remainder of the season, it's Gattis by a mile. But without the benefit of the last three weeks, it has to be Justin Upton. The younger of the brothers in the Atlanta outfield, Justin cost the Braves Martin Prado and ace prospect Randall Delgado. If Justin plays close to his ability, he is an MVP candidate. He has played like a superstar before. He has also played like an average regular. He turns 26 in August, so it is time for him to solidify his star status.
2. *Washington
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: The Nationals pitching staff is the best in baseball. Their excellent rotation features a pair of Cy Young contenders in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez followed by two above-average arms in Jordan Zimmerman and Dan Haren. Ross Detwiler figures to own the fifth spot as an average starter. Once those starters give the bullpen a lead, it is lights out with Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, and Tyler Clippard slamming the door shut. The offense is more about depth with average regulars surrounding stars Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. However, very few other teams actually put eight average or better starters on the field, so the Washington offense should hum again in 2013.
Player to Watch: The Nationals have plenty of interesting names but I think that the most interesting player on the roster is Jayson Werth. The Washington payroll spiked from $68M in 2011 to $118M this year. Including this season, Werth has five years and $99M left on his deal. While the team has locked up Ryan Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Denard Span, Adam LaRoche, and Soriano, the likes of Strasburg, Ian Desmond, Detwiler, Storen, and Clippard are all into their arbitration years as key cogs in the franchise's wheels. If Werth continues to be just an average regular, he could be on his way out the door to accommodate the rising costs of the superior talent.
3. Philadelphia
Projected Wins: 84
Explanation: Philly has a good team with some serious star talent. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay form the top trio in the game in spite of Halladay's early season struggles where he has been devastated by the long ball. Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan round out the rotation complemented by an excellent bullpen with big arms Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo. However, the offense is harder to come by in the Phillies lineup. Ryan Howard's extension has been a disappointment since before it kicked in, Chase Utley has dealt with knee problems, and Michael Young - seemingly acquired to solidify the group - is 36 with rapidly declining power and floundering on-base ability. The Philadelphia system lacks impact talent to be called up or used in trades, making the possibility of a mid-season fire sale all the more likely.
Player to Watch: Domonic Brown. The former banner prospect is yet to put it together in the majors. However, few doubt that the tools are still there. At 25, he continues to confound projection systems that wonder where the star offensive player is. He may be too old to have a magical career, but he can still muster a great one if the puzzle comes together. He should get his full-time shot in 2013.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 74
Explanation: The Mets made a spectacular trade this offseason, turning 38-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey into big pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard and across-the-board above-average catcher Travis d'Arnaud. Unfortunately for the big club in 2013, the results will be worse as a result. By the end of the season, the team could feature an exciting, deep rotation headlined by young studs Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey trailed by the solid Jon Niese and Dillon Gee with veteran Shaun Marcum filling out the group. Regardless, the team will surround the excellent David Wright with the solid duo of Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy with little else. There just isn't enough on offense yet for the team to compete, although there could be enough pitching for playoff dreams in 2014. Expect the Mets to be players for big offensive free agents like Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson this offseason.
Player to Watch: Davis. Despite crushing 32 home runs in 2012, Davis had just a .308 on-base percentage thanks to a .246 BABIP and nearly 25% strikeout rate. If he shows more on-base ability while maintaining good power, he is a cleanup hitter. If the on-base ability is gone, he likely hits sixth or seventh on a good team.
5. Miami
Projected Wins: 53
Explanation: Giancarlo Stanton is an ultra-mega-star. Jose Fernandez should be a top-of-the-rotation starter and pitch some in Miami this year. I'm punting the rest of this write-up just like the Marlins are punting the 2013 season.
Player to Watch: Stanton. Nobody else on this team is interesting while Stanton could still challenge for the MVP despite a likely triple digit loss total. That is a rarity to say the least.
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