The N.L. Central figures to be a two horse race in 2013. Cincinnati should be in contention all year after winning the division with 97 wins in 2012, but, given their excellent pitching and pitching depth, St. Louis is a good bet to make repeating difficult for the Reds. With Houston off to the American League and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh both playing decent ball, the Cubs should have a firm grip on the doormat.
1. St. Louis
Projected Wins: 94
Explanation: The Cardinals have the pitching to dominate for long stretches with a perfect mix of experienced hurlers and young talent. Their pitching depth also enables them to swing a big trade if they see fit, something that could very well be the difference between reaching the postseason and just missing. I foresee Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller being very productive behind ace Adam Wainwright. I also foresee the Cardinals top five producing plenty of offense. John Jay should get on base enough in front of Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina for the offense to be at least average. David Freese is a good sixth option. However, the bottom duo of Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma just won't get the job done. Solid second base prospect Kolten Wong should have a chance to supplant Descalso during the season. Elite outfield prospect Oscar Taveras could also help out, although St. Louis may prefer another full season of seasoning for the wildly talented 19-year-old. With Rafael Furcal injured and looking increasingly washed up, the shortstop hole will keep the Cardinals on the lookout for a big acquisition.
Player to Watch: Miller. The big Texan has had the look of a staff ace for quite some time, and even with a tiny dip in his ceiling, he could be an excellent rotation option just behind Wainwright. If Miller puts it together for a full season, he could be pitching Game Two of the Division Series in October.
2. *Cincinnati
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: That's no mistake: I think we'll have a Wild Card play-in game between Cincinnati and Los Angeles for the right to play Washington in the Wild Card round. The Reds are built very similarly to the Cardinals with excellent starting pitching depth, a very strong bullpen, and an exceptionally productive top of the order. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Shin-Soo Choo are the best trio of lefties on any team with Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick complementing them nicely from the right side. The bottom of the Cincinnati order is good but unspectacular as Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart both struggle to get on base while Ryan Hanigan offers almost no power, although Hanigan could be fully supplanted by the superior Devin Mesoraco behind the plate. Chris Heisey provides good outfield depth as well. Nonetheless, the starting rotation features five good options while the bullpen is anchored by the three-headed monster of Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall, and Jonathan Broxton. Cincinnati won't blow a lot of leads in 2013.
Player to Watch: Bronson Arroyo. In a contract season, the 36-year-old starter has a ton at stake. A productive year could mean another two or three year deal to close his career while struggles could lead to a mid-season move to the bullpen.
3. Milwaukee
Projected Wins: 81
Explanation: I really despise the Kyle Lohse signing by the Brewers. Milwaukee's offensive prowess is undeniable. Their top six of Aoki-Weeks-Braun-Ramirez-Lucroy-Gomez is very strong and that sextext will be vastly improved when Corey Hart replaces Alex Gonzalez at first base in June. Jean Segura rounds out the group nicely. Yovani Gallardo continues to be an excellent starter, and there is some hope for the likes of Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta, and Tyler Thornburg. However, it takes a ton of hope to see that pitching staff - even with Lohse included - being enough for the Brewers to overcome the likes of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Washington, San Francisco, or Los Angeles. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, they have to come out ahead of a number of those teams to make the playoffs. Lohse is coming off of a career year at age 33. It is possible that he will enjoy some of the same improvements and luck that carried him to that great season again. However, it is just as likely that he will pitch like a 34-year-old, giving the Brewers a fourth or fifth starting pitcher for $11M and costing them their first-round pick in June's draft while simultaneously giving division rival St. Louis an extra selection. It's hard to see this working out well for the Brewers.
Player to Watch: Carlos Gomez. With a 3-year, $24M extension in hand, Gomez needs to show that 2012 was a year of his talent coming to fruition, not a year of luck. If it is the latter, Milwaukee is in trouble. If it is the former, Gomez could take another big step in 2013.
4. Pittsburgh
Projected Wins: 77
Explanation: Pirates fans hoping to break the .500 barrier have to wait one more season to do so. Thankfully for them, 2014 should be that year with the arrival of top starters Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Before Cole and Taillon make it to Pittsburgh, the team will struggle through starts from Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez behind solid arms A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and James McDonald. The bullpen should be solid, led by big armed closer Jason Grilli. The lineup, on the other hand, consists of superstar Andrew McCutchen, good second baseman Neil Walker, and six average but unspectacular bats. There just isn't enough offensively to carry the team given its decent pitching.
Player to Watch: Pedro Alvarez. The second overall pick in the 2008 draft, Alvarez has showed the power stroke that made scouts fall in love with him. Unfortunately for the Pirates, he has also shown mind-boggling inconsistency at the plate. If he puts it together at 26, he could still be one of the top five third basemen in the game. It's time.
5. Chicago
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: After winning just 61 games in 2012, the new front office regime shored up the team's starting pitch depth issues by signing Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Carlos Villanueva, and Scott Feldman. They also added Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa to shore up a dreadful bullpen. Baker was expected to be out until May, but a spring training setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery should keep him out until at least the All-Star break. Similarly, largely seen as the top trade chip on the market, Matt Garza has been slowed in his return from a July elbow injury by a lat strain, although Garza is on track to return in May. Even with the new found starting depth, the Cubs bullpen looked to be shaky entering the season and early returns have been dreadful. Thankfully 2012 breakouts Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood have continued rolling along in the rotation. Regardless of the pitching success or failure, the team's offense will keep them from having any chance of competing. Future studs Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo should anchor the patchwork lineup with only catcher Welington Castillo and perhaps second baseman Darwin Barney likely to be in Cubs uniforms by the time the team competes again for a postseason berth. Alfonso Soriano turned in a strong 2012 campaign, waiting until May 15th to club his first home run, then smashing 32 on the year. Another good season from Soriano could help the development of the two younger Cubs ahead of him in the batting order.
Player to Watch: Garza. The team's best bet to bring back a big return in a mid-season trade, the 29-year-old righty pitched like an ace in 2011 before the injury bug bit in 2012. If he returns to form for a couple of months in advance of the deadline, he could still net the team a nice haul in a trade.
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