For now, just four before I go to bed:
1. The Cubs are saving some serious cash. They owed Samardzija roughly $2.6M more over the rest of this year and likely something around $10M next year. They owed Hammel $3M more this year. Thus, about $5.6M comes off of the books for 2014 with the removal of next year's second biggest expense. Making only very basic projections about the 40-man roster (removing Darwin Barney, John Baker, James McDonald, Brett Jackson, and Josh Vitters while adding a few guys who need to be protected), through 35 players, I have the salary at $61.7M. That's a bit lower than normal; from 2007-2011, the 40-man averaged about $133M. If ever a team is positioned to be major players in free agency, it is the 2014 Cubs.
2. I have to think that some of the sense of urgency to make this deal involves draft positioning. This rebuild has been built around the premise that bottoming out nets top picks and big spending pools, enabling the team to gobble up elite talent cheaply. 2014 figured to be the last year of putrid play, but something went wrong: the 2014 Cubs can pitch. Really well. Despite having a team wRC+ of 82 (18% below the average offense) that ranked 29th in baseball ahead of only the miserable Padres, the Cubs run differential was remarkably +1 on the strength of the fifth best WAR among pitching staffs and the second best rotation WAR.
The Cubs were on pace for another stinker at 20-34 as of June 1st. Since then, the team has posted an 18-12 mark to climb to 38-46, the tenth worst record in baseball and dangerously on the brink of missing out on a protected first-round draft pick in 2015. Seeing as the Cubs are positioned to make a run at one of the winter's marquee starting pitchers - Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields, and Co. are certainly aware of today's move - losing the protection of the top pick represents a massive cost addition to the free agency plan. The Cubs are currently only four games better than MLB-worst Houston, so as more talented teams with worse records like Boston, Texas, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota improve in the second half, the Cubs have assured themselves of avoiding such a winning run. If they're going to get one more crack at a marquee draftee, the Cubs want to maximize their draft spot. Trading away their top two pitchers after 84 games is a marvelous way to do that.
3. Projecting lineups has been extremely fun for a while. Now, it's just silly. Russell has the infield chops to be a plus defender at any position, but I would be surprised if the Cubs envision him playing somewhere other than SS or 2B. As such, how about this mid-2015 lineup:
CF Alcantara
SS Russell
1B Rizzo
RF Bryant
3B Baez
2B Castro
LF Soler
C Castillo
That's silly good. But we left Kyle Schwarber out of the party, so let's look to May 1st, 2016:
SS Russell
1B Rizzo
RF Bryant
LF Schwarber
3B Baez
CF Alcantara
2B Castro
C Castillo
I remember seeing the 2004 Cubs field an offensive lineup of the following players with the triple slash lines as of that date...
CF Patterson (.276/.329/.434)
SS Garciaparra (.320/.361/.491)
LF Alou (.276/.336/.526)
RF Sosa (.275/.358/.578)
3B Ramirez (.326/.376/.592)
1B Lee (.299/.370/.547)
2B Walker (.281/.364/.507)
C Barrett (.289/.339/.479)
P Zambrano (.200/.196/.220 - a rough offensive year for Z)
...and realizing that it was the best offensive lineup of my lifetime.
This Cubs team does not project to be better than that late 2004 offense. But they project to be at least somewhat similar in an era where that type of offense just isn't supposed to happen, and they project to do so while playing overwhelmingly superior defense with four MLB-caliber shortstops (Baez, Russell, Castro, Alcantara) on the field at the same time. It's hard to believe the roster that Theo and Jed have put together. The minor leaguers could destroy the major leaguers, unless Jake Arrieta is on the mound.
The bullpen is there. The position players are coming rapidly. And there's money and supply to address the starters in a few months plus an Arrieta in the fold.
4. If I was Starlin Castro, I'd be looking over my shoulder. Both Baez and Russell project for better defense and offense than Castro with Baez at AAA and Russell at AA. Arismendy Alcantara looks like a big-time 2B prospect who may get bumped to CF based on need. Kris Bryant has the chops to play an average 3B and his arm might help him creep above that level. The Cubs need pitching and a centerfielder. What might the going rate be for a cost-controlled two-time All-Star SS who is just 24, ranks seventh among SS in WAR, and ranks third among SS in wRC+, trailing only Hanley Ramirez (not a SS) and Troy Tulowitzki (not a human)? How much would he return, especially given that his very affordable contract makes him a viable target for every single team?
Just from a brief look through MLB teams, the following clubs jump out as potential Castro suitors either this month or in the winter:
Tampa Bay: Yunel Escobar can't do anything this year. He was extended at the beginning of the year, but if the Rays move Ben Zobrist, they'll have an opening. Hak-Ju Lee could push Escobar and play with Castro.
Miami: Adeiny Hechavarria is really bad with the stick. .060 ISO and a .299 OBP. They're the ideal match with all tiers of pitching in he minors. How about Castro for Andrew Heaney?
New York Yankees: Almost too obvious. Jeter will bail and the Yanks desperately need a replacement. Castro could play 2B for the 2014 playoff push and replace Jeter for the long haul. The Yankees system is poor, but they could offer the Cubs a high-end catching prospect and some project arms. Or Masahiro Tanaka (kidding).
Boston: Xander Bogaerts might move back to SS but Stephen Drew appears unlikely to stick around beyond 2014.
Cleveland: Asdrubal Cabrera will be a free agent.
New York Mets: They haven't had a good SS since the moment Jose Reyes left.
So many possibilities. So much high-end talent.
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