These articles are fun. They're based primarily on analysis of player fit and team budgets, but in the end, it tends to come down to hunches. That's just fun.
So here we go. Here are my guesstimates for the top free agent landing spots, ranked in order of how good I think the players are and nothing else. The first dollar figure is only for guaranteed years; that is, any option buyout is not included in that figure.
1. SP David Price
Signing Team: Chicago Cubs
Contract Terms: 8 years, $216M
Notes: For quite some time, I have assumed that Price would land a 7-year deal worth either $182M or $189M. Max Scherzer effectively got a 7-year deal worth $170.4M last year, so that would be a big, market-setting jump for Price.
But now I think that I'm low, not necessarily on the AAV but on the total commitment. This deal lets Price secure the largest guarantee ever and it basically gives the Cubs a free year in the process. They could even structure the deal to give Price $210M over the first seven years of the deal with an extremely cheap eighth year tacked on.
It'll be a real fight between the Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees, but in the end, I think Price rejoins Joe Maddon in pursuit of a ring.
2. SP Zack Greinke
Signing Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Terms: 6 years, $168M plus mutual option for $30M ($7M buyout)
Notes: Greinke used his opt-out to create leverage, but it's darn-near impossible to envision the Dodgers letting him escape, especially not up the coast to San Francisco.
3. RF Jason Heyward
Signing Team: New York Yankees
Contract Terms: 10 years, $200M (with opt-out after year 5)
Notes: My least favorite contract of the offseason exclusively because of the opt out. I love Heyward and I'd love to see him join the Cubs. A 10-year, $200M deal would even be palatable. But not with the opt out. The opt out kills the deal, placing all of the risk on the signing club. Still, he makes sense for the Yankees with Carlos Beltran in his final year and Brett Gardner on the trade block. While the Yankees would prefer to spend next year to this year, this year's free agent class is overwhelmingly superior to next year's, so they'll have to pay a little extra tax in 2016 to get their man.
4. LF Alex Gordon
Signing Team: Kansas City Royals
Contract Terms: 5 years, $85M plus club option for $20M ($5M buyout)
Notes: In the end, Gordon gets a big guarantee but still gives the Royals a substantial discount in the range of 15-20%. It's still a good deal for him and the club.
5. SP Jordan Zimmermann
Signing Team: San Francisco Giants
Contract Terms: 6 years, $126M
Notes: The Giants have an incredible amount of money coming off of the books this year and next, so they use some of that cash to replenish their rotation. Zimmermann should add some surprisingly-needed stability to their rotation.
6. SP Johnny Cueto
Signing Team: Boston Red Sox
Contract Terms: 6 years, $140M
Notes: Cueto had a strange year, simultaneously solidifying his status as an ace and struggling mightily in Kansas City in a way that challenges his market. In the end, I think that he'll do just fine.
7. LF Yoenis Cespedes
Signing Team: San Francisco Giants
Contract Terms: 7 years, $150M
Notes: Remember that thing I said above about the Giants and all of their payroll space? Here goes the rest of it. Their lineup is deep and strong, but they don't have a monster power bat. Cespedes is a marvelous fit with Posey, Crawford, Belt, and Duffy. And perhaps a healthy Hunter Pence, too.
8. 1B Chris Davis
Signing Team: Baltimore Orioles
Contract Terms: 6 years, $135M
Notes: Davis is the premier power bat on the market, but his other limitations will keep him from pushing this contract higher. The Orioles have tons of free agents, but they also have a nice pile of cash with which to replenish their roster. Keeping Davis just makes sense.
9. SP Jeff Samardzija
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 5 years, $90M
Notes: The Angels are a sneaky crappy team with Mike Trout propping them up for years. They desperately need to fill out their roster, and it's about time for Arte Moreno to throw piles of cash at his problems again. So here's a risky, high-upside pitcher.
10. LF Justin Upton
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 7 years, $119M
Notes: I originally had Upton slated to the Cardinals, but the White Sox are desperate for offense and he's the best bat left.
11. 2B/LF Ben Zobrist
Signing Team: St. Louis Cardinals
Contract Terms: 4 years, $55M
Notes: Zobrist is perfect for the Cardinals, and this way they get to take a chance that he ages better than we might expect without sacrificing a boatload of cash to find out. I'm sure that they'll adore his flexibility.
12. SS Ian Desmond
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 6 years, $100M
Notes: The Padres desperately need to address their middle infield and taking a shot that Desmond's first half was a fluke is probably their best option. There's plenty of risk, but the reward is massive.
13. SP Yovani Gallardo
Signing Team: Baltimore Orioles
Contract Terms: 5 years, $80M
Notes: Gallardo is no ace, but he is extremely durable and extremely consistently good. That's going to get him paid.
14. CF Dexter Fowler
Signing Team: Texas Rangers
Contract Terms: 5 years, $70M
Notes: Cleveland is a bit of a dark horse here, but in the end, I think that the Rangers decide that they're ready to try having some offense in centerfield.
15. SP Wei-Yin Chen
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 5 years, $65M
Notes: Chen has been very consistent in his time in the Majors. Given that the Mariners need a starter (or two) and consistently find themselves with Japanese pitchers on the roster, this union makes sense.
16. SP Scott Kazmir
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 4 years, $55M
Notes: Kazmir is normally very good, but his second half with Houston was very poor in 2015. That hurts his earning power a bit. Joining the Angels' staff is a good fit for him.
17. SP John Lackey
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $42M
Notes: The Tigers need some starters. The steady Lackey would be a nice addition to their staff, particularly as some useful young arms bring their volatility to the staff.
18. SP Mike Leake
Signing Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Contract Terms: 6 years, $105M
Notes: Leake gets the Homer Bailey contract even though he's not as good. The Jays desperately need an arm, and if they strike out on the bigger names above, Leake is a decent enough fit.
19. 2B Howie Kendrick
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 5 years, $70M
Notes: Kendrick would be a great solution to the second base position that has been an ongoing disaster for the ChiSox. He just hits.
20. OF Colby Rasmus
Signing Team: Cleveland Indians
Contract Terms: 4 years, $50M
Notes: Rasmus makes tons of sense for the Indians as they could use help in either center or right, and they even need help in left given the recent news of Michael Brantley's injury.
21. 2B Daniel Murphy
Signing Team: Anaheim Angels
Contract Terms: 5 years, $60M
Notes: Murphy is a solid, unspectacular guy. Given the Angels' recent production at the keystone, he would be a welcome addition.
22. C Matt Wieters
Signing Team: Atlanta Braves
Contract Terms: 5 years, $75M
Notes: This is an extremely risky contract, but it does make a good bit of sense. The Braves are clearing payroll space in anticipation of their move to a new stadium in 2017, but adding Wieters gives them a centerpiece, homegrown talent to sell to their fans. It also addresses a shaky catching spot. Wieters would likely command a lot more than this if he was healthy, but health issues have plagued him as of late. He's a tough free agent to peg.
23. SP Hisashi Iwakuma
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 3 years, $40M
Notes: It's just tough to see him leaving.
24. RP Darren O'Day
Signing Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract Terms: 4 years, $30M
Notes: The Dodgers have boatloads of money and they sure seem like a good bet to spend some more of it. O'Day is a nice piece.
25. RP Tyler Clippard
Signing Team: Boston Red Sox
Contract Terms: 3 years, $21M
Notes: The Red Sox really need to find a strong arm or two for the back of their bullpen. Clippard doesn't overpower hitters, but his superb changeup has rendered him an extremely formidable reliever.
26. SP J.A. Happ
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 3 years, $33M
Notes: Happ had the best run of his career in Pittsburgh this summer and the Bucs need to add at least one starter. It makes a lot of sense.
27. 3B David Freese
Signing Team: Milwaukee Brewers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $36M
Notes: Outside of a disastrous 2013 with the Cardinals, Freese has been consistently productive, basically an average third baseman, throughout his time in the Majors. Unfortunately for him, he didn't grab an everyday job until he was 28, so he's entering his age-33 season. He should get a nice deal and the Brewers have a gaping hole at third base. Just don't expect him to finish this deal in Milwaukee.
28. SP Marco Estrada
Signing Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Contract Terms: 4 years, $60M
Notes: Estrada was a scrap heap acquisition by the Blue Jays, but after his strong 2015, he's going to command a pretty penny. He's always struggled with home runs and his strikeouts have dissipated. This is the leading contender for worst contract of the offseason.
29. SS Asdrubal Cabrera
Signing Team: Oakland Athletics
Contract Terms: 1 year, $8M
Notes: The A's need to add another potential starter to their infield mix and Cabrera makes enough sense. He's not moving the needle much, however.
30. RP Joakim Soria
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 3 years, $20M
Notes: The Tigers badly need Soria's relief production back. I've gotta think that they'll get him.
31. CF Denard Span
Signing Team: Seattle Mariners
Contract Terms: 3 years, $30M
Notes: The Mainers had a gaping hole in center field, so I think they'll take the plunge on Span's balky body.
32. SP Brett Anderson
Signing Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract Terms: 4 years, $60M
Notes: The D-Backs have oodles of cash to spend and a continuing need in the rotation. They'll spend it here.
33. SP Ian Kennedy
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 1 year, $15.8M
Notes: If there's any sanity in the world, Kennedy is accepting his qualifying offer and trying to reenter the market next year poised to make double what he'd make this year.
34. OF Gerardo Parra
Signing Team: Colorado Rockies
Contract Terms: 4 years, $44M
Notes: The Rockies need to add a complementary piece or two this winter to make it look like they're doing something. Enter Parra.
35. OF Nori Aoki
Signing Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Contract Terms: 2 years, $12M
Notes: The Rays have to be alarmed by Steven Souza's strikeout woes. Aoki's defense-first profile is a great fit for their club as he is likely to provide good value on this meager deal.
36. C Chris Iannetta
Signing Team: Miami Marlins
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: The Marlins make it look like they're kinda, sorta doing something.
37. CF Chris Young
Signing Team: Washington Nationals
Contract Terms: 2 years, $15M
Notes: The Nats need to add something to the mix, so taking a shot on Young's remaining upside is as good of an idea as any at this point.
38. SP Chris Young
Signing Team: Kansas City Royals
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M plus $7M club option with $1M buyout
Notes: Young has pitched his way into a guaranteed deal and he might leave a tiny bit of cash on the table to keep the band together in Kansas City.
39. OF Rajai Davis
Signing Team: Houston Astros
Contract Terms: 2 years, $10M
Notes: This is a great deal for Davis in his mid-30s. The Astros need to add this security blanket to their extremely young, volatile outfield mix.
40. SP Bartolo Colon
Signing Team: Houston Astros
Contract Terms: 1 year, $6M
Notes: Speaking of adding veteran security blankets...
41. SS Jimmy Rollins
Signing Team: New York Yankees
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The Yankees likely want to add some insurance to Didi Gregorious and Rollins has the glove and cost that makes sense...if he's willing to accept a reduced role.
42. CF Austin Jackson
Signing Team: Cleveland Indians
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: I don't understand why so many writers think Jackson is getting a multi-year deal worth $10M+ per year. Yes, he's a strong defender in center field. But he hasn't hit for a year and a half. Non-hitting outfielders rarely get paid. He's a good fit in Cleveland.
43. SP Doug Fister
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 1 year, $8M
Notes: Fister's velocity evaporated and he may very well be done. On the off chance that he isn't, heading to spacious PNC Park would be a great way to resurrect his career and hit the market again next winter.
44. SS Alexei Ramirez
Signing Team: Philadelphia Phillies
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The perfect rebound-and-flip candidate. And the Phillies can give him full-time plate appearances.
45. OF Steve Pearce
Signing Team: Colorado Rockies
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: Look, I'm not saying that Pearce has to go to the Rockies. I am saying that a bat-first player needing to rebuild value coming off of a miserable campaign should definitely call Coors home, even if he has to play first base.
46. SP Tim Lincecum
Signing Team: San Diego Padres
Contract Terms: 1 year, $3M (with boatloads of incentives)
Notes: Lincecum has struggled mightily for years now. Heading to PETCO to join a team in need of a cheap lottery ticket makes plenty of sense.
47. OF Alex Rios
Signing Team: Minnesota Twins
Contract Terms: 1 year, $5M
Notes: The Twins spent most of their cash on Byung-Ho Park (assuming that they agree to a deal with him), so Rios on a one-year deal is a fine addition. He buys them a few months while Byron Buxton continues to percolate, at which time Rios can be kicked to the bench or, if he produces, flipped for a helpful part.
48. OF David Murphy
Signing Team: Detroit Tigers
Contract Terms: 1 year, $4M
Notes: Murphy needs to find some plate appearances and the Tigers need to find some cheap options.
49. RP Ryan Madson
Signing Team: Chicago White Sox
Contract Terms: 3 years, $15M
Notes: The White Sox love paying for relievers and they need to find some this winter. Enter Madson, the formerly-great rehabilitation project from Kansas City.
50. 1B Mike Napoli
Signing Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
Contract Terms: 1 year, $7M
Notes: Assuming that the Pirates non-tender Pedro Alvarez, they'll need a bat to throw at first base. Napoli would fit the bill assuming he isn't completely washed up.
*** SP Kenta Maeda
Signing Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Contract Terms: 6 years, $95M (plus $20M posting fee)
Notes: Though Maeda isn't technically a free agent, he is widely expected to be posted. In that event, the Diamondbacks have been connected to him for so long that it's truly difficult to imagine them not signing Maeda at this point.
There we have it. Some completely worthless guesses. But they were fun to make.
Incredibly, only two teams ended up without a top-50 free agent: the Reds (duh) and the Mets (huh?). It should be a fun winter!
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Tuesday, September 22, 2015
Imagining the Next Great Bears Team
***Note: I wrote this post between the Packers loss and the Cardinals debacle, finalizing my edits only after the Arizona game. Just pretend it's last week when you're reading this.
I know that I'm not supposed to be happy or satisfied with a season-opening 31-23 loss to the Packers at home, and to be clear, I'm not. I am, however, pleasantly surprised after having imagined that the club would be completely trounced by Green Bay's powerful offense.
In the end, the Bears' defense proved no match for the Packers' attack, surrendering points on all but two possessions, and allowing Aaron Rodgers to post a sizzling QBR of 94.4, second to only explosive Titans' rookie Marcus Mariota. Only one NFL QB posted a QBR of higher than 77.4 last season (Dallas' Tony Romo at 83.6), so Rodgers' showing was truly exceptional...though it was, remarkably, a bit lower than last year's 98.2 in Green Bay's visit to Chicago. I guess that qualifies as improvement?
Anyway, the Bears' defense was truly dreadful, not even registering a single hit on Rodgers on the afternoon. It's going to be a painfully long season on that side of the ball.
On the other hand, the Chicago offense showed much of the promise that fans hoped for from the 2014 unit despite the worsened offensive line and the hobbled receiving corps. Jay Cutler played a strong game, at least until his backbreaking interception late in the fourth quarter. Still, the running of Matt Forte and the excellent run blocking of the offensive line provides reason for hope on that side of the ball.
With all of that said: the 2015 Bears aren't going anywhere. A wildly successful coaching job by John Fox, Adam Gase, and Vic Fangio will be required in order to keep the club from picking in the top ten in the 2016 draft. The 2015 team is going to lose a lot of games.
2016? The 2016 club could have some promise, but the inevitable divorce from Jay Cutler is coming, and with his dead money charge dropping from approximately $29M to $13M next year, I suspect that Cutler will be out of work in March. Cutler absolutely showed signs of growing into a top-tier starting quarterback from 2010-13, but between a slew of injuries and reversion to old, devastating habits, that dream was never fully realized. The 2016 Bears figure to have a new quarterback, and new quarterbacks almost never mean success.
So, to me, 2017 is the first time the Bears can hope to truly reach a high level of success. It will take lots and lots of work, especially from Fangio as he looks to build a defense from almost nothing, so here's a look at what general manager Ryan Pace might do in order to build that 2017 club examining each position and its relative need between now and then with the level of need indicating ranging from 1 (minimal need) to 10 (overwhelmingly desperate need).
Specialists
Current Players: Robbie Gould (K), Pat O'Donnell (P), Thomas Gafford (LS)
2017 Players: Gould (K), O'Donnell (P), UNKNOWN (LS)
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Gould is signed through 2017 with a manageable cap hit, and he continues to be among the most productive kickers in the league. O'Donnell is also signed through 2017 on his rookie deal, and he has produced effectively. While Gafford may or may not be the long snapper who sticks around, I have no doubt that the club can find a viable long snapper to fill the role.
The specialists are locked in.
Running Back
Current Players: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ka'Deem Carey
2017 Players: Forte, Langford, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: It probably seems strange to see a "1" above, but my expectation is that the Bears will give Forte a 2-3 year extension to keep him in orange and blue for the rest of his career. That may be an ill-advised choice given the aging curves of running backs, but Forte remains an elite back. Langford should have no trouble sticking around thanks to his speed and experience in a pro-style offense.
I'll be surprised if Carey lasts beyond this season; indeed, he likely only made this roster as a result of the injury to Senorise Perry at the end of the preseason. Still, with Forte and Langford likely on the roster moving forward, there's no real sense in addressing this position with assets.
If Forte leaves in free agency or unexpectedly retires, this need probably only jumps to a 4 given that Langford appears well-equipped to handle a feature back job.
Center
Current Players: Will Montgomery, Hroniss Grasu
2017 Players: Grasu
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Grasu was undoubtedly drafted by this regime to be the 2016 center; we sure better hope he handles that job in 2017, too.
Nose Tackle
Current Players: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie Goldman
2017 Players: Goldman, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 2
Analysis: Much like Grasu, Goldman was drafted to fill this exact job. Here's hoping he was the right pick (he was on my short list, so I hope so, too!). He will need a backup, but that should come from a late-round draft pick or an undrafted rookie.
Wide Receiver
Current Players: Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy
2017 Players: Jeffery, White, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 4
Analysis: This is a similar spot to the running back position group. I fully expect that the Bears will extend Jeffery with a deal that is similar to those signed by Dez Bryant, TY Hilton, Julio Jones, and AJ Green, Jeffery's peers. Such a deal would be somewhere in the range of $70M over five years with approximately $40M guaranteed. John Fox and Adam Gase enjoyed their greatest success when pairing Demaryius Thomas with Eric Decker, so I suspect that they will seek out the opportunity to replicate that lineup in Chicago, especially considering that the Bears will have the cap space necessary to do so.
If Jeffery leaves, this need jump up to a 9 as White is the only player with a reasonable level of certainty to stick on this roster. Royal effectively has a $5M team option for 2017, and given that a different quarterback will be in town, picking it up is unlikely to make a whole lot of sense unless Royal really explodes this year or next.
Tight End
Current Players: Martellus Bennett, Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Gannon Sinclair
2017 Players: Lee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 6
Analysis: Bennett is clearly the star of this group, but his desire for a new contract and the team's unwillingness to meet his demands suggest that a divorce is likely coming in the future, either via trade or upon the expiration of his deal following the 2016 season. There will be a number of enticing options on the free agent market following the 2016 season including Miami's Jordan Cameron, Bennett, and Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert. It's entirely possible that the Bears will in fact leverage their 2016 control of Bennett into a somewhat friendly extension. Otherwise, the club will need to find a new featured tight end between now and 2017.
Defensive End
Current Players: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis Jenkins, Cornelius Washington, Will Sutton
2017 Players: Ferguson, Sutton, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 7
Analysis: Ferguson was one of the big beneficiaries of the switch from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4 base (though query what that actually means given that the Bears spent just three snaps on Sunday in their 3-4 formation). While Ferguson looked to be a decent 4-3 defensive tackle, he is built much more ideally to play the end spot in a 3-4. With continued growth, he could very well lock down one of these jobs.
Sutton was much better suited to play the 4-3, and though strong special teams play and a few big moments this preseason kept him on the roster, he is unlikely to fit as a 3-4 end in the long term, though he could nonetheless serve as a useful reserve throughout his rookie contract.
Washington hasn't been able to get himself on the field, though his bodily transformation this offseason at least keeps him in the conversation. Jenkins is a stopgap.
No beating around the bush, here: the Bears need at least one new starter and at least one additional reserve at defensive end.
Safety
Current Players: Antrel Rolle, Adrian Amos, Ryan Mundy, Demontre Hurst, Brock Vereen, Harold Jones-Quartey
2017 Players: Amos, Vereen, Jones-Quartey, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: The presence of three names above is somewhat deceptive: only Amos figures to have a real shot at starting going forward. I never understood what the Emery regime saw in Vereen and apparently the Pace regime doesn't either as Vereen got just one defensive snap in the opener. Nevertheless, he was a core special teamer and on a rookie deal, he could stick around.
Jones-Quartey is a Division II success story for even making the active roster, but his preseason play suggests that he could play his way into a substitute job.
Regardless, a starter is needed here in addition to another depth body.
Guard
Current Players: Matt Slauson, Vladimir Ducasse, Patrick Omameh
2017 Players: Slauson, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: Slauson would be in the final year of his deal in 2017 if he makes it that far, though his cap charge only escalates $100K per season so continued production makes his presence on the roster a reasonable bet.
Ducasse will be gone and Omameh never looked that good at Michigan; a legitimate NFL career from him would be a big surprise.
The "8" need above assumes that Kyle Long will be left at right tackle. If he moves back inside, this drops to a 2.
Offensive Tackle
Current Players: Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje
2017 Players: Bushrod, Long, Leno, Fabuluje
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: It might seem really odd to have the same four names listed above and nonetheless list the need as an "8," but in the case of the Bears' tackles, it makes sense.
Bushrod will be a 33-year-old in the final year of his deal in 2017, and there's a very good chance he gets cut loose following the 2016 season. Long is just a single game into his experiment at right tackle, and he could find himself back at guard in a few weeks; he'll also need an extension by 2017. Leno and Fabuluje are both massive projects with very little likelihood of success.
If Bushrod is the left tackle in 2017, he's probably in the bottom quartile of starters at his position, an alarming development for a potential new quarterback.
Outside Linebacker
Current Players: Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Jared Allen, Willie Young
2017 Players: McPhee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: The 3-4 defense doesn't work without pressure from the pass rushing outside linebackers. McPhee was a monstrous rusher around the edge in Baltimore, and I suspect that the Pace regime will ride with McPhee for years as a result. Here's hoping that the results match the pay.
Houston, on the other hand, was an Emery-era acquisition and his dead money charge drops in a big way next year as he has a $6.99M cap charge if he's on the roster in 2016 but just $2.97M in dead money if he is released. It's still reasonable to have hope for Houston playing his way into a big-time role given his past success in Oakland, but he played just four snaps in the opener. It seems unlikely that the current regime is interested in having him around.
Allen will be cut immediately following the season when his contract allows for his release without any dead money, and Young will likely find his way out of town despite a $666,668 charge thanks to his awkward fit in the 3-4.
The 2017 Bears need at least two rotation outside linebackers and a third depth piece. They're really going to have to target this spot.
Cornerback
Current Players: Kyle Fuller, Alan Ball, Tracy Porter, Sherrick McManis, Terrance Mitchell, Bryce Callahan
2017 Players: Fuller, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: As badly as the club needs outside linebackers, there is seemingly no position of greater need than cornerback (seemingly because, well, there's yet another defensive position coming next!). This need rating would be a 9.9 if I used decimals. In the new NFL, the nickelback is more of a starter than the extra linebacker is, and the Bears simply don't have the necessary bodies in the defensive backfield. Fuller is a true building block on the back end, but that's it. Mitchell is the only other player in this group with any real chance of sticking around in 2017, and he is decidedly a longshot.
The Bears need two starters and three depth pieces. They're going to add a lot of cornerbacks making this a position to watch in both free agency and the draft.
Inside Linebacker
Current Players: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, John Timu, Lamin Barrow
2017 Players: UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: It's not hard to slap a "10" on this group. McClellin was a marvelous bust from what turned out to be a spectacularly poor second half of the first round in the 2012 draft. Jones has been a success story of sorts, an undrafted free agent who played his way into the starting lineup, albeit without much success to this point. While he could continue to grow, he will be a free agent following the 2016 season. Bostic, like McClellin, has been a disastrous flop despite showcasing his tremendous athleticism at times. Timu and Barrow are both bottom-of-the-roster fodder with special teams ceilings.
As bleak as the outlook is at defensive end and cornerback, there are literally no bodies on the current roster who figure to occupy inside linebacking jobs in 2017. Wow.
Quarterback
Current Players: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen
2017 Players: UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: It's obviously easiest to throw out a "10" here. Even if Jay Cutler somehow survives next March and makes his way onto the Bears roster in 2016 (his $13M in dead money versus his $17M cap charge will go a long way there), his $2M in dead money in 2017 makes him a goner. Clausen is an easily replaceable backup.
The Bears need a quarterback, in part so that they can get someone else to play under center and in part to signal the final change to a new era.
I will never speak poorly of Cutler. His toughness and his arm strength have endeared him to me in spite of his propensity for throwing backbreaking interceptions and other ill-advised tosses into heavy coverage. The 2010 season was a blast, and Jay took an absolute beating all year to get the club into January. The 2011 season looked like his finest work to date until he broke his thumb and it all came crashing down on Caleb Hanie. The 2012 year was also spectacular until a concussion derailed the campaign. Yet still, in 2013, Jay looked like an ace quarterback playing for a team with absolutely no semblance of a defense. 2014 was a nightmare.
I expect that Jay will play tough this year and that he'll post some nice numbers thanks to a strong collection of weapons and a capable, average offensive line.
But I don't expect him to be the guy in 2017 when the team has a real shot at winning big again.
Interlude
It may seem alarmist to have so many high numbers, but I think that's just the reality of being such a poor team devoid of young talent. There are tons of holes that need to be filled. On the bright side, outside of Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, there aren't any players on the roster who will need a big-money extension in the near future and there are some seriously big-money deals that figure to come off of the books in the upcoming seasons (Allen, Cutler, Houston). The team should have plenty of cap space with which to supplement their upcoming draft classes.
Players to Target
This list could be seemingly endless given the amount of turnover that occurs on NFL rosters every year. Accordingly, let's first start with a look at the projected roster in a simpler format.
QB: UNK, UNK
RB: Forte, Langford, UNK, UNK
TE: UNK, Lee, UNK, UNK
OT: Bushrod, Long, Leno, Fabuluje
G: Slauson, UNK, UNK
C: Grasu
DE: Ferguson, UNK, Sutton, UNK
NT: Goldman, UNK
OLB: McPhee, UNK, UNK, UNK
ILB: UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK
CB: Fuller, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK
S: UNK, Amos, Vereen, Jones-Quartey, UNK
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, UNK
And similarly, here is a slightly more confusing list of the needs by individual roster spot. For example, QB1 is a "10" whereas QB2 is a "3," accenting the difference in need between a starting QB and a backup.
10: QB1, ILB1, CB2
9: OLB2
8: G2, ILB2, CB3, S1
7: DE2
6: TE1, CB4
5: OLB3
4: ILB3
3: QB2
2: NT2
1: RB3, RB4, TE3, TE4, G3, DE4, OLB4, ILB4, ILB5, CB5, CB6, S5, LS1
Though it wasn't my intent, the divide between the positions listed in 1-5 and 6-10 provides a nice breaking point for looking at those positions that can likely be filled late in free agency or with depth draftees versus those positions that need more meaningful assets thrown at them.
Let's take a detailed look at the following positions: QB, ILB, CB, OLB, G, S, and DE.
QB
2016 Free Agents: Sam Bradford (Philadelphia)
2016 Draft Prospects: Connor Cook (Michigan St.), Christian Hackenberg (Penn St.), Cardale Jones (Ohio St.), Jared Goff (Cal)
2017 Free Agents: Drew Brees (New Orleans), Peyton Manning (ha!) (Denver)
2017 Draft Prospects: Deshaun Watson (Clemson), Kyle Allen (Texas A&M)
Analysis: The upcoming free agent classes are littered with reserve quarterbacks like Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins, and plenty of other guys who didn't play their college ball in Michigan. However, the only true option in free agency is Brees and even he is unlikely to leave New Orleans.
Thus, the Bears' new QB1 will either come via trade (yikes) or the draft. Thankfully, the 2016 draft class figures to feature four quarterbacks worth of selection in the first round. None of the quarterbacks come without serious red flags - Cook has accuracy problems, Jones has only a handful of collegiate starts, Hackenberg has been seriously stunted by a porous offensive line, and Goff comes with the stigma of having quarterbacked a Cal team to a 1-11 season as a freshman - but any of them would qualify as viable cornerstones around which to build the next contender in Chicago.
ILB
2016 Free Agents: Sean Weatherspoon (Arizona), Danny Trevathan (Denver), Brandon Marshall (Denver)
2016 Draft Prospects: Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), Reggie Ragland (Alabama), Kendell Beckwith (LSU), Terrance Smith (Florida St.)
2017 Free Agents: Kiko Alonso (Philaelphia), Lawrence Timmons (Pittsburgh), Manti Te'o (San Diego)
2017 Draft Prospects: Reggie Northrup (Florida St.), Raekwon McMillan (Ohio St.), Tre Williams (Auburn), Reuben Foster (Alabama)
Analysis: It's a strange time for linebackers. As football has turned into a much more passing oriented game, linebackers find themselves in a point of transition. Defensive linemen are primarily valued for the ability to rush the passer while defensive backs earn their keep by stopping would-be pass catchers, not helping out in run support. Linebackers have seen their need for speed explode in this new era, and 3-4 inside linebackers are certainly no exception.
While there are no stars set to hit the market in March, both Trevathan and Marshall cut their teeth playing for John Fox in Denver, and as the Broncos prepare for life after Peyton Manning, I suspect that one of them (mercifully) finds their way onto the Bears' roster. Nevertheless, the abject of failure of Jon Bostic should leave the Bears seeking out at least one additional inside 'backer in next year's draft.
CB
2016 Free Agents: Leon Hall (Cincinnati), Prince Amukamara (New York Giants)
2016 Draft Prospects: Vernon Hargreaves III (Florida), Jalen Ramsey (Florida St.), Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), Tre'Davious White (LSU), Cameron Sutton (Tennessee)
2017 Free Agents: Jamar Taylor (Miami), Stephon Gillmore (Buffalo), Dre Kirkpatrick (Cincinnati), D.J. Hayden (Oakland)
2017 Draft Prospects: Tony Connor (Mississippi), Jalen Tabor (Florida), Adoree Jackson (USC)
Analysis: The Bears' need in the defensive backfield is extreme, but unfortunately, the free agent pickings are relatively slim. The Bears enjoyed a decade of strong play at cornerback during the reign of Peanut Tillman as he partnered first with Nathan "The Interceptor" Vasher and later with Tim Jennings to form a strong tandem. While the hope remains that Kyle Fuller can form half of a top duo, he is doing it alone at this point. The Bears will be hard pressed to pass on any of the draft-eligible players listed above if they are available after the first round. Depending on the success of the 2015 Bears, they may even find themselves making a play for Hargreaves, Fuller, or Ramsey in May.
OLB
2016 Free Agents: Von Miller (Denver), Tamba Hali (Kansas City), Courtney Upshaw (Baltimore)
2016 Draft Prospects: Joey Bosa (Ohio St.), Scooby Wright III (Arizona), Myles Garrett (Texas A&M), Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma St.), Shilique Calhoun (Michigan St.)
2017 Free Agents: Dont'a Hightower (New England), Melvin Ingram (San Diego), Quinton Coples (New York Jets)
2017 Draft Prospects: Da'Shawn Hand (Alabama), Devonte Fields (Louisville), Leonard Floyd (Georgia)
Analysis: The Bears' need in the defensive backfield is extreme, but unfortunately, the free agent pickings are relatively slim. The Bears enjoyed a decade of strong play at cornerback during the reign of Peanut Tillman as he partnered first with Nathan "The Interceptor" Vasher and later with Tim Jennings to form a strong tandem. While the hope remains that Kyle Fuller can form half of a top duo, he is doing it alone at this point. The Bears will be hard pressed to pass on any of the draft-eligible players listed above if they are available after the first round. Depending on the success of the 2015 Bears, they may even find themselves making a play for Hargreaves, Fuller, or Ramsey in May if the club is drafting outside of the top five.
G (but really T)
2016 Free Agents: Russell Okung (Seattle), Andre Smith (Cincinnati), Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati)
2016 Draft Prospects: Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), Laremy Tunsil (Mississippi), Jack Conklin (Michigan St.), Taylor Decker (Ohio St.), Tyler Johnstone (Oregon)
2017 Free Agents: Matt Kalil (Minnesota), Phil Loadholt (Minnesota), Riley Reiff (Detroit), Eric Fisher (Kansas City), Luke Joeckel (Jacksonville)
2017 Draft Prospects: Cam Robinson (Alabama), Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M), Jerald Hawkins (LSU)
Analysis: While the position of need is technically guard, there's no real sense in acquiring a guard prospect instead of a tackle. Bushrod is nearing the end of the line with a back injury beginning to slow him down while Long is almost certainly best situated in the interior. Accordingly, every name listed above is that of a tackle.
Thankfully for the Bears, this is a very good time to be in the market for an offensive tackle. While the team would be hard-pressed to pass up the chance to grab a potential franchise signal caller in the top five of the 2016 draft, a slightly more successful season could leave the top quarterbacks off the board by the time the Bears draft with one of Stanley or Tunsil potentially available. Either would be a marvelous choice. With a few prominent options hitting free agency over the next couple of years and a half dozen compelling draft prospects, this could be an area that the Bears address by taking advantage of the depth in the marketplace.
S
2016 Free Agents: Eric Weddle (San Diego), Eric Berry (Kansas City), Tashaun Gipson (Cleveland)
2016 Draft Prospects: Jalen Mills (LSU), Darian Thompson (Boise St.), Nate Andrews (Florida St.), Karl Joseph (West Virginia)
2017 Free Agents: Reshad Jones (Miami), Harrison Smith (Minnesota), Malcolm Jenkins (Philadelphia), Eric Reid (San Francisco)
2017 Draft Prospects: Vonn Bell (Ohio St.), Max Redfield (Notre Dame), Jayron Kearse (Clemson), Orion Stewart (Baylor)
Analysis: There are a couple of truly excellent safeties hitting the free agent market this winter, but it remains to be seen if the new regime will commit the resources necessary to solving a decades-long problem spot instead of attempting to fix the position with band-aids. I would be particularly interested in Mills as a Day Two selection this year, appreciating fully that a big year from Mills will likely vault him into the first round. Still, he has the type of athleticism that the Bears have lacked at the position since the departure of the occasionally brilliant yet inconsistent Danieal Manning.
Regardless of the club's approach to the position, it's clear that there is a lot of pressure riding on Adrian Amos.
DE
2016 Free Agents: Muhammad Wilkerson (New York Jets), Letroy Guion (Green Bay)
2016 Draft Prospects: A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), Adolphus Washington (Ohio St.), Chris Jones (Mississippi St.), Robert Nkemdiche (Mississippi), Shawn Oakman (Baylor), Anthony Zettel (Penn St.)
2017 Free Agents: Sheldon Richardson (New York Jets), Calais Campbell (Arizona), Fletcher Cox (Philadelphia), Datone Jones (Green Bay)
2017 Draft Prospects: Andrew Billings (Baylor), Jonathan Allen (Alabama), Jonathan Bullard (Florida), Montravious Adams (Auburn)
Analysis: As was the case at offensive tackle, there are actually a bevy of compelling options to man the all-important 3-4 DE spot reaching the marketplace in the coming years. The Bears will have plenty of flexibility in filling this spot as collegiate defensive tackles and NFL DEs can both fit the bill.
My Ideal Scenario
That was a ton of information, but the entire point of this monstrous post was to get here: my vision for crafting the 2017 Bears into a real contender.
While I'd love to trade off superfluous parts for late-round draft picks, I'm going to approach this assuming that the Bears have their full allotment of picks (excluding the 2017 sixth-rounder sent to Houston for TE Khari Lee) and that they don't acquire or lose any picks in either draft class.
2016 Offseason
Players to Cut (cap charge)
OLB Jared Allen ($0)
OLB Willie Young ($666,668)
ILB Jon Bostic ($311,509)
SS Antrel Rolle ($0)
Allen and Rolle are no-brainers are past-their-prime players due too much cash and cap space. Young is unfortunate, but it's tough to see him rebounding from such a serious injury and fitting well into a 3-4 defense. Bostic is an incredibly disappointing outcome, but for a player that can't get on the field, the $942,381 of cap space that his release would create is probably his best use to the team. Such a letdown.
And then there's Jay. He can stick around for 2016 if he plays exceptionally well in 2015 as his dead money charge drops from $13M in 2016 to $2M in 2017, but if the Bears draft a quarterback in 2016, it probably makes more sense to send Jay packing and complete the turning of the page. This will be one of the defining choices of the Ryan Pace era, and I think he'll keep Cutler around for 2016 instead of burning 2016 on a rookie or a journeyman. I just don't know.
(NOTE: watching Jimmy Clausen run the Bears' offense, it seems likely that Cutler will be back next year. The drop off from Jay to the readily available NFL QBs is massive.)
Players to Re-Sign
RB Matt Forte
WR Alshon Jeffery
Forte's contract is genuinely difficult to peg whereas Jeffery's is incredibly easy. Marshawn Lynch, who is the same age as Forte and similarly productive, secured a two-year, $24M extension. I think that such a deal would be a mostly palatable option to the Bears and Forte, though Forte will have more leverage as an impending free agent. Accordingly, I could see a three-year, $35M extension getting the job done with the following structure:
2016: $9M base, $3M roster bonus (guaranteed)
2017: $10M base (guaranteed)
2018: $10M base, $3M roster bonus (no guarantees)
The Bears give Forte a much larger guarantee ($22M) than Lynch, but they effectively just give him a two-year, $22M deal with a roster bonus early in 2018 to allow him to hit free agency, as appropriate, if he is released.
Jeffery is simple. Here are the extensions recently signed by other top young receivers:
AJ Green: 4 years, $60M ($32.75M guaranteed)
Julio Jones: 5 years, $71.3M ($47M guaranteed)
TY Hilton: 5 years, $65M ($28M guaranteed)
Jeffery isn't quite as good as Green or Jones, but he is better than Hilton, though Alshon comes with significant injury concerns. Accordingly, I expect the following deal with Alshon:
Signing Bonus: $12M
2016: $5M base, $2M roster bonus (fully guaranteed)
2017: $8M base (fully guaranteed)
2018: $5M base, $4M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $13M base (no guarantees)
2020: $14M base, $2M roster bonus (no guarantees)
The total guarantee reaches $32M and the year by year cap hit is $9.4M, $10.4M, $11.4M, $15.4M, and $18.4M. It would be reported as a 5 year, $65M deal with $32M guaranteed.
Given the number of comparables, this shouldn't be the toughest deal to execute.
Players to Sign
ILB Brandon Marshall: 5 years, $30M ($12M guaranteed)
OT Andre Smith: 4 years, $24M ($8M guaranteed)
Marshall is a tricky a player, a thrice-waiver undrafted free agent who exploded onto the scene recently. This contract essentially values him like Pernell McPhee, albeit with Marshall at a slightly less expensive position. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $2.5M
2016: $4M base (fully guaranteed)
2017: $5M base, $0.5M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2018: $5M base (no guarantee)
2019: $5.5M base (no guarantee)
2020: $7M base (no guarantee)
Smith, on the other hand, is on the way down in his career with the Bengals ready to cut bait as evidenced by their drafting back-to-back tackles last May. This deal would give him a chance to reestablish himself as a viable starting tackle. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $2M
2016: $4M base (guaranteed)
2017: $2M base, $2M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2018: $6M base (no guarantee)
2019: $8M base (no guarantee)
Obviously the Bears would fill out the roster with cheaper players, but I'm not going through the Terrance Mitchells and the Alan Balls of the football world here.
Draft Dream
I'm assuming that the Bears end up with the fifth overall pick, as I projected before the season began. That will almost certainly be wrong, but I'm going to roll with it.
R1: OLB Joey Bosa (Ohio St.)
R2: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
R3: DE Anthony Zettel (Penn St.)
R4: CB Eric Murray (Minnesota)
R5: ILB Terrance Smith (Florida St.)
R6: TE Johnny Mundt (Oregon)
R7: CB Blake Countess (Auburn)
Holy Toledo, that's a lot of defensive players. I promise that I didn't set out to make such a class; it just worked out like that. I think it goes without saying that I would be thrilled by such a class.
2016 Snapshot in Time
This post is already absurd and nobody will ever read it, so I might as well take a moment to provide a snapshot of the 2016 roster based on these moves:
QB: Jay Cutler, ?????
RB: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, ?????
TE: Martellus Bennett, Khari Lee, Johnny Mundt, ?????
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, ?????
WR: Kevin White, Marquess Wilson
LT: Jermon Bushrod, Charles Leno, Jr.
LG: Matt Slauson, ?????
C: Hroniss Grasu
RG: Kyle Long
RT: Andre Smith, Tayo Fabuluje
DE: Ego Ferguson, ?????
NT: Eddie Goldman, ?????
DE: Anthony Zettel, Will Sutton
OLB: Pernell McPhee, ?????
ILB: Christian Jones, ?????
ILB: Terrance Smith, ?????
OLB: Joey Bosa, Lamarr Houston
CB: Kyle Fuller, Blake Countess, ?????
S: Jalen Mills, Brock Vereen
S: Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, ?????
CB: Eric Murray, ?????
2017 Offseason
Players to Cut (cap charge)
QB Jay Cutler ($2M)
RB Ka'Deem Carey ($110,845)
WR Eddie Royal ($0)
OLB Lamarr Houston ($1.98M)
Obviously it's possible that any of these four players could change our perceptions of them over the next 31 games, but it's just as possible that some of them will already be gone by the time March 2017 rolls around. Cutler's exit is clearly the marquee attraction here.
Players to Re-Sign
G Kyle Long
ILB Christian Jones
Although Martellus Bennett will be a free agent, I imagine that he will find his way off of the roster before the end of the 2016 season, though I do enjoy watching him play. Long can be extended on his fifth year option at what figures to be approximately $9M. As for Jones, he may play his way off of the roster by 2017 while he may instead play his way into a restricted free agent tender. Either way, there won't be big contractual decisions to make in early 2017 for players already on the roster.
Players to Sign
WR Emmanuel Sanders: 3 years, $18M ($7M guaranteed)
OLB Quinton Coples: 3 years, $15M ($7M guaranteed)
Sanders makes oodles of sense, and I fully suspect that veterans will be fleeing Denver by March 2017. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $0
2017: $5M base (guaranteed)
2018: $3M base, $3M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $7M base (no guarantee)
Here's the breakdown on Coples, a converted defensive end who feels like a fringe starter and gets paid as such to play in a strong rotation with McPhee and Bosa:
Signing Bonus: $3M
2017: $3M (guaranteed)
2018: $1M base, $3M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $5M (no guarantee)
Draft Dream
R1: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn St.)
R2: TE O.J. Howard (Alabama)
R3: CB Jalen Tabor (Florida)
R4: ILB Raekwon McMillan (Ohio St.)
R5: NT Austin Johnson (Penn St.)
R7: WR Bralon Addison (Oregon)
I promise I'm not cheating. I think Hackenberg stands a good chance to return to school for his senior season in 2016 to reestablish his stock as an elite quarterback, making millions along the way.
2017 Snapshot in Time
This is the real meat of this entire, monstrous post. The 2017 Bears:
QB: Christian Hackenberg, ?????
RB: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, ?????, ?????
TE: O.J. Howard, Johnny Mundt, Khari Lee, ?????
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Bralon Addison, ?????
WR: Kevin White, Emmanuel Sanders
LT: Jermon Bushrod, Charles Leno, Jr.
LG: Matt Slauson, ?????
C: Hroniss Grasu
RG: Kyle Long
RT: Andre Smith, Tayo Fabuluje
DE: Ego Ferguson, ?????
NT: Eddie Goldman, Austin Johnson
DE: Anthony Zettel, Will Sutton
OLB: Pernell McPhee, Quinton Coples
ILB: Raekwon McMillan, ?????
ILB: Terrance Smith, ?????
OLB: Joey Bosa, ?????
CB: Kyle Fuller, Blake Countess, ?????
S: Jalen Mills, Brock Vereen
S: Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, ?????
CB: Jalen Tabor, Eric Murray
Pfew. That was a lot.
Decompress and Wrap Up
Look, there's a 0.00000000000001% chance of this happening and quite honestly, I'll be surprised if any of the moves listed above come to fruition. I do know that this exercise has largely confirmed for me what I already believed: the Bears need to add a ton of talent on their defense and a lot of that is going to come through the draft.
That said, they also need to use free agency because the amount of talent required is far greater than their allotment of picks. They need another Pernell McPhee or two, a guy who the metrics love, who the scouts like, and who was otherwise blocked by a star-level player. When you can make a short-term commitment to that kind of guy but with long-term control if it works out, you can strike it rich...or get out of a mistake quickly. That worked exceptionally well for the Bears with Adewale Ogunleye: as it turned out, he was, in fact, really good and not just a Jason Taylor-created mirage. It certainly doesn't always work out like that. But that's where the Bears should live for now.
That's enough for now. The Bears need to add a ton of players, mostly defenders, to the roster before they have a real chance to be relevant and avoid embarrassing showings like they had against the Cardinals. Here's hoping Ryan Pace makes it happen.
I know that I'm not supposed to be happy or satisfied with a season-opening 31-23 loss to the Packers at home, and to be clear, I'm not. I am, however, pleasantly surprised after having imagined that the club would be completely trounced by Green Bay's powerful offense.
In the end, the Bears' defense proved no match for the Packers' attack, surrendering points on all but two possessions, and allowing Aaron Rodgers to post a sizzling QBR of 94.4, second to only explosive Titans' rookie Marcus Mariota. Only one NFL QB posted a QBR of higher than 77.4 last season (Dallas' Tony Romo at 83.6), so Rodgers' showing was truly exceptional...though it was, remarkably, a bit lower than last year's 98.2 in Green Bay's visit to Chicago. I guess that qualifies as improvement?
Anyway, the Bears' defense was truly dreadful, not even registering a single hit on Rodgers on the afternoon. It's going to be a painfully long season on that side of the ball.
On the other hand, the Chicago offense showed much of the promise that fans hoped for from the 2014 unit despite the worsened offensive line and the hobbled receiving corps. Jay Cutler played a strong game, at least until his backbreaking interception late in the fourth quarter. Still, the running of Matt Forte and the excellent run blocking of the offensive line provides reason for hope on that side of the ball.
With all of that said: the 2015 Bears aren't going anywhere. A wildly successful coaching job by John Fox, Adam Gase, and Vic Fangio will be required in order to keep the club from picking in the top ten in the 2016 draft. The 2015 team is going to lose a lot of games.
2016? The 2016 club could have some promise, but the inevitable divorce from Jay Cutler is coming, and with his dead money charge dropping from approximately $29M to $13M next year, I suspect that Cutler will be out of work in March. Cutler absolutely showed signs of growing into a top-tier starting quarterback from 2010-13, but between a slew of injuries and reversion to old, devastating habits, that dream was never fully realized. The 2016 Bears figure to have a new quarterback, and new quarterbacks almost never mean success.
So, to me, 2017 is the first time the Bears can hope to truly reach a high level of success. It will take lots and lots of work, especially from Fangio as he looks to build a defense from almost nothing, so here's a look at what general manager Ryan Pace might do in order to build that 2017 club examining each position and its relative need between now and then with the level of need indicating ranging from 1 (minimal need) to 10 (overwhelmingly desperate need).
Specialists
Current Players: Robbie Gould (K), Pat O'Donnell (P), Thomas Gafford (LS)
2017 Players: Gould (K), O'Donnell (P), UNKNOWN (LS)
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Gould is signed through 2017 with a manageable cap hit, and he continues to be among the most productive kickers in the league. O'Donnell is also signed through 2017 on his rookie deal, and he has produced effectively. While Gafford may or may not be the long snapper who sticks around, I have no doubt that the club can find a viable long snapper to fill the role.
The specialists are locked in.
Running Back
Current Players: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Jacquizz Rodgers, Ka'Deem Carey
2017 Players: Forte, Langford, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: It probably seems strange to see a "1" above, but my expectation is that the Bears will give Forte a 2-3 year extension to keep him in orange and blue for the rest of his career. That may be an ill-advised choice given the aging curves of running backs, but Forte remains an elite back. Langford should have no trouble sticking around thanks to his speed and experience in a pro-style offense.
I'll be surprised if Carey lasts beyond this season; indeed, he likely only made this roster as a result of the injury to Senorise Perry at the end of the preseason. Still, with Forte and Langford likely on the roster moving forward, there's no real sense in addressing this position with assets.
If Forte leaves in free agency or unexpectedly retires, this need probably only jumps to a 4 given that Langford appears well-equipped to handle a feature back job.
Center
Current Players: Will Montgomery, Hroniss Grasu
2017 Players: Grasu
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Grasu was undoubtedly drafted by this regime to be the 2016 center; we sure better hope he handles that job in 2017, too.
Nose Tackle
Current Players: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie Goldman
2017 Players: Goldman, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 2
Analysis: Much like Grasu, Goldman was drafted to fill this exact job. Here's hoping he was the right pick (he was on my short list, so I hope so, too!). He will need a backup, but that should come from a late-round draft pick or an undrafted rookie.
Wide Receiver
Current Players: Alshon Jeffery, Kevin White, Eddie Royal, Marquess Wilson, Marc Mariani, Josh Bellamy
2017 Players: Jeffery, White, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 4
Analysis: This is a similar spot to the running back position group. I fully expect that the Bears will extend Jeffery with a deal that is similar to those signed by Dez Bryant, TY Hilton, Julio Jones, and AJ Green, Jeffery's peers. Such a deal would be somewhere in the range of $70M over five years with approximately $40M guaranteed. John Fox and Adam Gase enjoyed their greatest success when pairing Demaryius Thomas with Eric Decker, so I suspect that they will seek out the opportunity to replicate that lineup in Chicago, especially considering that the Bears will have the cap space necessary to do so.
If Jeffery leaves, this need jump up to a 9 as White is the only player with a reasonable level of certainty to stick on this roster. Royal effectively has a $5M team option for 2017, and given that a different quarterback will be in town, picking it up is unlikely to make a whole lot of sense unless Royal really explodes this year or next.
Tight End
Current Players: Martellus Bennett, Zach Miller, Khari Lee, Gannon Sinclair
2017 Players: Lee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 6
Analysis: Bennett is clearly the star of this group, but his desire for a new contract and the team's unwillingness to meet his demands suggest that a divorce is likely coming in the future, either via trade or upon the expiration of his deal following the 2016 season. There will be a number of enticing options on the free agent market following the 2016 season including Miami's Jordan Cameron, Bennett, and Cincinnati's Tyler Eifert. It's entirely possible that the Bears will in fact leverage their 2016 control of Bennett into a somewhat friendly extension. Otherwise, the club will need to find a new featured tight end between now and 2017.
Defensive End
Current Players: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis Jenkins, Cornelius Washington, Will Sutton
2017 Players: Ferguson, Sutton, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 7
Analysis: Ferguson was one of the big beneficiaries of the switch from a 4-3 base defense to a 3-4 base (though query what that actually means given that the Bears spent just three snaps on Sunday in their 3-4 formation). While Ferguson looked to be a decent 4-3 defensive tackle, he is built much more ideally to play the end spot in a 3-4. With continued growth, he could very well lock down one of these jobs.
Sutton was much better suited to play the 4-3, and though strong special teams play and a few big moments this preseason kept him on the roster, he is unlikely to fit as a 3-4 end in the long term, though he could nonetheless serve as a useful reserve throughout his rookie contract.
Washington hasn't been able to get himself on the field, though his bodily transformation this offseason at least keeps him in the conversation. Jenkins is a stopgap.
No beating around the bush, here: the Bears need at least one new starter and at least one additional reserve at defensive end.
Safety
Current Players: Antrel Rolle, Adrian Amos, Ryan Mundy, Demontre Hurst, Brock Vereen, Harold Jones-Quartey
2017 Players: Amos, Vereen, Jones-Quartey, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: The presence of three names above is somewhat deceptive: only Amos figures to have a real shot at starting going forward. I never understood what the Emery regime saw in Vereen and apparently the Pace regime doesn't either as Vereen got just one defensive snap in the opener. Nevertheless, he was a core special teamer and on a rookie deal, he could stick around.
Jones-Quartey is a Division II success story for even making the active roster, but his preseason play suggests that he could play his way into a substitute job.
Regardless, a starter is needed here in addition to another depth body.
Guard
Current Players: Matt Slauson, Vladimir Ducasse, Patrick Omameh
2017 Players: Slauson, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: Slauson would be in the final year of his deal in 2017 if he makes it that far, though his cap charge only escalates $100K per season so continued production makes his presence on the roster a reasonable bet.
Ducasse will be gone and Omameh never looked that good at Michigan; a legitimate NFL career from him would be a big surprise.
The "8" need above assumes that Kyle Long will be left at right tackle. If he moves back inside, this drops to a 2.
Offensive Tackle
Current Players: Jermon Bushrod, Kyle Long, Charles Leno, Jr., Tayo Fabuluje
2017 Players: Bushrod, Long, Leno, Fabuluje
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: It might seem really odd to have the same four names listed above and nonetheless list the need as an "8," but in the case of the Bears' tackles, it makes sense.
Bushrod will be a 33-year-old in the final year of his deal in 2017, and there's a very good chance he gets cut loose following the 2016 season. Long is just a single game into his experiment at right tackle, and he could find himself back at guard in a few weeks; he'll also need an extension by 2017. Leno and Fabuluje are both massive projects with very little likelihood of success.
If Bushrod is the left tackle in 2017, he's probably in the bottom quartile of starters at his position, an alarming development for a potential new quarterback.
Outside Linebacker
Current Players: Pernell McPhee, Lamarr Houston, Jared Allen, Willie Young
2017 Players: McPhee, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: The 3-4 defense doesn't work without pressure from the pass rushing outside linebackers. McPhee was a monstrous rusher around the edge in Baltimore, and I suspect that the Pace regime will ride with McPhee for years as a result. Here's hoping that the results match the pay.
Houston, on the other hand, was an Emery-era acquisition and his dead money charge drops in a big way next year as he has a $6.99M cap charge if he's on the roster in 2016 but just $2.97M in dead money if he is released. It's still reasonable to have hope for Houston playing his way into a big-time role given his past success in Oakland, but he played just four snaps in the opener. It seems unlikely that the current regime is interested in having him around.
Allen will be cut immediately following the season when his contract allows for his release without any dead money, and Young will likely find his way out of town despite a $666,668 charge thanks to his awkward fit in the 3-4.
The 2017 Bears need at least two rotation outside linebackers and a third depth piece. They're really going to have to target this spot.
Cornerback
Current Players: Kyle Fuller, Alan Ball, Tracy Porter, Sherrick McManis, Terrance Mitchell, Bryce Callahan
2017 Players: Fuller, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: As badly as the club needs outside linebackers, there is seemingly no position of greater need than cornerback (seemingly because, well, there's yet another defensive position coming next!). This need rating would be a 9.9 if I used decimals. In the new NFL, the nickelback is more of a starter than the extra linebacker is, and the Bears simply don't have the necessary bodies in the defensive backfield. Fuller is a true building block on the back end, but that's it. Mitchell is the only other player in this group with any real chance of sticking around in 2017, and he is decidedly a longshot.
The Bears need two starters and three depth pieces. They're going to add a lot of cornerbacks making this a position to watch in both free agency and the draft.
Inside Linebacker
Current Players: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, John Timu, Lamin Barrow
2017 Players: UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: It's not hard to slap a "10" on this group. McClellin was a marvelous bust from what turned out to be a spectacularly poor second half of the first round in the 2012 draft. Jones has been a success story of sorts, an undrafted free agent who played his way into the starting lineup, albeit without much success to this point. While he could continue to grow, he will be a free agent following the 2016 season. Bostic, like McClellin, has been a disastrous flop despite showcasing his tremendous athleticism at times. Timu and Barrow are both bottom-of-the-roster fodder with special teams ceilings.
As bleak as the outlook is at defensive end and cornerback, there are literally no bodies on the current roster who figure to occupy inside linebacking jobs in 2017. Wow.
Quarterback
Current Players: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen
2017 Players: UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: It's obviously easiest to throw out a "10" here. Even if Jay Cutler somehow survives next March and makes his way onto the Bears roster in 2016 (his $13M in dead money versus his $17M cap charge will go a long way there), his $2M in dead money in 2017 makes him a goner. Clausen is an easily replaceable backup.
The Bears need a quarterback, in part so that they can get someone else to play under center and in part to signal the final change to a new era.
I will never speak poorly of Cutler. His toughness and his arm strength have endeared him to me in spite of his propensity for throwing backbreaking interceptions and other ill-advised tosses into heavy coverage. The 2010 season was a blast, and Jay took an absolute beating all year to get the club into January. The 2011 season looked like his finest work to date until he broke his thumb and it all came crashing down on Caleb Hanie. The 2012 year was also spectacular until a concussion derailed the campaign. Yet still, in 2013, Jay looked like an ace quarterback playing for a team with absolutely no semblance of a defense. 2014 was a nightmare.
I expect that Jay will play tough this year and that he'll post some nice numbers thanks to a strong collection of weapons and a capable, average offensive line.
But I don't expect him to be the guy in 2017 when the team has a real shot at winning big again.
Interlude
It may seem alarmist to have so many high numbers, but I think that's just the reality of being such a poor team devoid of young talent. There are tons of holes that need to be filled. On the bright side, outside of Alshon Jeffery and Kyle Long, there aren't any players on the roster who will need a big-money extension in the near future and there are some seriously big-money deals that figure to come off of the books in the upcoming seasons (Allen, Cutler, Houston). The team should have plenty of cap space with which to supplement their upcoming draft classes.
Players to Target
This list could be seemingly endless given the amount of turnover that occurs on NFL rosters every year. Accordingly, let's first start with a look at the projected roster in a simpler format.
QB: UNK, UNK
RB: Forte, Langford, UNK, UNK
TE: UNK, Lee, UNK, UNK
OT: Bushrod, Long, Leno, Fabuluje
G: Slauson, UNK, UNK
C: Grasu
DE: Ferguson, UNK, Sutton, UNK
NT: Goldman, UNK
OLB: McPhee, UNK, UNK, UNK
ILB: UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK
CB: Fuller, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK, UNK
S: UNK, Amos, Vereen, Jones-Quartey, UNK
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, UNK
And similarly, here is a slightly more confusing list of the needs by individual roster spot. For example, QB1 is a "10" whereas QB2 is a "3," accenting the difference in need between a starting QB and a backup.
10: QB1, ILB1, CB2
9: OLB2
8: G2, ILB2, CB3, S1
7: DE2
6: TE1, CB4
5: OLB3
4: ILB3
3: QB2
2: NT2
1: RB3, RB4, TE3, TE4, G3, DE4, OLB4, ILB4, ILB5, CB5, CB6, S5, LS1
Though it wasn't my intent, the divide between the positions listed in 1-5 and 6-10 provides a nice breaking point for looking at those positions that can likely be filled late in free agency or with depth draftees versus those positions that need more meaningful assets thrown at them.
Let's take a detailed look at the following positions: QB, ILB, CB, OLB, G, S, and DE.
QB
2016 Free Agents: Sam Bradford (Philadelphia)
2016 Draft Prospects: Connor Cook (Michigan St.), Christian Hackenberg (Penn St.), Cardale Jones (Ohio St.), Jared Goff (Cal)
2017 Free Agents: Drew Brees (New Orleans), Peyton Manning (ha!) (Denver)
2017 Draft Prospects: Deshaun Watson (Clemson), Kyle Allen (Texas A&M)
Analysis: The upcoming free agent classes are littered with reserve quarterbacks like Drew Stanton, Chad Henne, Kirk Cousins, and plenty of other guys who didn't play their college ball in Michigan. However, the only true option in free agency is Brees and even he is unlikely to leave New Orleans.
Thus, the Bears' new QB1 will either come via trade (yikes) or the draft. Thankfully, the 2016 draft class figures to feature four quarterbacks worth of selection in the first round. None of the quarterbacks come without serious red flags - Cook has accuracy problems, Jones has only a handful of collegiate starts, Hackenberg has been seriously stunted by a porous offensive line, and Goff comes with the stigma of having quarterbacked a Cal team to a 1-11 season as a freshman - but any of them would qualify as viable cornerstones around which to build the next contender in Chicago.
ILB
2016 Free Agents: Sean Weatherspoon (Arizona), Danny Trevathan (Denver), Brandon Marshall (Denver)
2016 Draft Prospects: Jaylon Smith (Notre Dame), Reggie Ragland (Alabama), Kendell Beckwith (LSU), Terrance Smith (Florida St.)
2017 Free Agents: Kiko Alonso (Philaelphia), Lawrence Timmons (Pittsburgh), Manti Te'o (San Diego)
2017 Draft Prospects: Reggie Northrup (Florida St.), Raekwon McMillan (Ohio St.), Tre Williams (Auburn), Reuben Foster (Alabama)
Analysis: It's a strange time for linebackers. As football has turned into a much more passing oriented game, linebackers find themselves in a point of transition. Defensive linemen are primarily valued for the ability to rush the passer while defensive backs earn their keep by stopping would-be pass catchers, not helping out in run support. Linebackers have seen their need for speed explode in this new era, and 3-4 inside linebackers are certainly no exception.
While there are no stars set to hit the market in March, both Trevathan and Marshall cut their teeth playing for John Fox in Denver, and as the Broncos prepare for life after Peyton Manning, I suspect that one of them (mercifully) finds their way onto the Bears' roster. Nevertheless, the abject of failure of Jon Bostic should leave the Bears seeking out at least one additional inside 'backer in next year's draft.
CB
2016 Free Agents: Leon Hall (Cincinnati), Prince Amukamara (New York Giants)
2016 Draft Prospects: Vernon Hargreaves III (Florida), Jalen Ramsey (Florida St.), Kendall Fuller (Virginia Tech), Tre'Davious White (LSU), Cameron Sutton (Tennessee)
2017 Free Agents: Jamar Taylor (Miami), Stephon Gillmore (Buffalo), Dre Kirkpatrick (Cincinnati), D.J. Hayden (Oakland)
2017 Draft Prospects: Tony Connor (Mississippi), Jalen Tabor (Florida), Adoree Jackson (USC)
Analysis: The Bears' need in the defensive backfield is extreme, but unfortunately, the free agent pickings are relatively slim. The Bears enjoyed a decade of strong play at cornerback during the reign of Peanut Tillman as he partnered first with Nathan "The Interceptor" Vasher and later with Tim Jennings to form a strong tandem. While the hope remains that Kyle Fuller can form half of a top duo, he is doing it alone at this point. The Bears will be hard pressed to pass on any of the draft-eligible players listed above if they are available after the first round. Depending on the success of the 2015 Bears, they may even find themselves making a play for Hargreaves, Fuller, or Ramsey in May.
OLB
2016 Free Agents: Von Miller (Denver), Tamba Hali (Kansas City), Courtney Upshaw (Baltimore)
2016 Draft Prospects: Joey Bosa (Ohio St.), Scooby Wright III (Arizona), Myles Garrett (Texas A&M), Emmanuel Ogbah (Oklahoma St.), Shilique Calhoun (Michigan St.)
2017 Free Agents: Dont'a Hightower (New England), Melvin Ingram (San Diego), Quinton Coples (New York Jets)
2017 Draft Prospects: Da'Shawn Hand (Alabama), Devonte Fields (Louisville), Leonard Floyd (Georgia)
Analysis: The Bears' need in the defensive backfield is extreme, but unfortunately, the free agent pickings are relatively slim. The Bears enjoyed a decade of strong play at cornerback during the reign of Peanut Tillman as he partnered first with Nathan "The Interceptor" Vasher and later with Tim Jennings to form a strong tandem. While the hope remains that Kyle Fuller can form half of a top duo, he is doing it alone at this point. The Bears will be hard pressed to pass on any of the draft-eligible players listed above if they are available after the first round. Depending on the success of the 2015 Bears, they may even find themselves making a play for Hargreaves, Fuller, or Ramsey in May if the club is drafting outside of the top five.
G (but really T)
2016 Free Agents: Russell Okung (Seattle), Andre Smith (Cincinnati), Andrew Whitworth (Cincinnati)
2016 Draft Prospects: Ronnie Stanley (Notre Dame), Laremy Tunsil (Mississippi), Jack Conklin (Michigan St.), Taylor Decker (Ohio St.), Tyler Johnstone (Oregon)
2017 Free Agents: Matt Kalil (Minnesota), Phil Loadholt (Minnesota), Riley Reiff (Detroit), Eric Fisher (Kansas City), Luke Joeckel (Jacksonville)
2017 Draft Prospects: Cam Robinson (Alabama), Germain Ifedi (Texas A&M), Jerald Hawkins (LSU)
Analysis: While the position of need is technically guard, there's no real sense in acquiring a guard prospect instead of a tackle. Bushrod is nearing the end of the line with a back injury beginning to slow him down while Long is almost certainly best situated in the interior. Accordingly, every name listed above is that of a tackle.
Thankfully for the Bears, this is a very good time to be in the market for an offensive tackle. While the team would be hard-pressed to pass up the chance to grab a potential franchise signal caller in the top five of the 2016 draft, a slightly more successful season could leave the top quarterbacks off the board by the time the Bears draft with one of Stanley or Tunsil potentially available. Either would be a marvelous choice. With a few prominent options hitting free agency over the next couple of years and a half dozen compelling draft prospects, this could be an area that the Bears address by taking advantage of the depth in the marketplace.
S
2016 Free Agents: Eric Weddle (San Diego), Eric Berry (Kansas City), Tashaun Gipson (Cleveland)
2016 Draft Prospects: Jalen Mills (LSU), Darian Thompson (Boise St.), Nate Andrews (Florida St.), Karl Joseph (West Virginia)
2017 Free Agents: Reshad Jones (Miami), Harrison Smith (Minnesota), Malcolm Jenkins (Philadelphia), Eric Reid (San Francisco)
2017 Draft Prospects: Vonn Bell (Ohio St.), Max Redfield (Notre Dame), Jayron Kearse (Clemson), Orion Stewart (Baylor)
Analysis: There are a couple of truly excellent safeties hitting the free agent market this winter, but it remains to be seen if the new regime will commit the resources necessary to solving a decades-long problem spot instead of attempting to fix the position with band-aids. I would be particularly interested in Mills as a Day Two selection this year, appreciating fully that a big year from Mills will likely vault him into the first round. Still, he has the type of athleticism that the Bears have lacked at the position since the departure of the occasionally brilliant yet inconsistent Danieal Manning.
Regardless of the club's approach to the position, it's clear that there is a lot of pressure riding on Adrian Amos.
DE
2016 Free Agents: Muhammad Wilkerson (New York Jets), Letroy Guion (Green Bay)
2016 Draft Prospects: A'Shawn Robinson (Alabama), Adolphus Washington (Ohio St.), Chris Jones (Mississippi St.), Robert Nkemdiche (Mississippi), Shawn Oakman (Baylor), Anthony Zettel (Penn St.)
2017 Free Agents: Sheldon Richardson (New York Jets), Calais Campbell (Arizona), Fletcher Cox (Philadelphia), Datone Jones (Green Bay)
2017 Draft Prospects: Andrew Billings (Baylor), Jonathan Allen (Alabama), Jonathan Bullard (Florida), Montravious Adams (Auburn)
Analysis: As was the case at offensive tackle, there are actually a bevy of compelling options to man the all-important 3-4 DE spot reaching the marketplace in the coming years. The Bears will have plenty of flexibility in filling this spot as collegiate defensive tackles and NFL DEs can both fit the bill.
My Ideal Scenario
That was a ton of information, but the entire point of this monstrous post was to get here: my vision for crafting the 2017 Bears into a real contender.
While I'd love to trade off superfluous parts for late-round draft picks, I'm going to approach this assuming that the Bears have their full allotment of picks (excluding the 2017 sixth-rounder sent to Houston for TE Khari Lee) and that they don't acquire or lose any picks in either draft class.
2016 Offseason
Players to Cut (cap charge)
OLB Jared Allen ($0)
OLB Willie Young ($666,668)
ILB Jon Bostic ($311,509)
SS Antrel Rolle ($0)
Allen and Rolle are no-brainers are past-their-prime players due too much cash and cap space. Young is unfortunate, but it's tough to see him rebounding from such a serious injury and fitting well into a 3-4 defense. Bostic is an incredibly disappointing outcome, but for a player that can't get on the field, the $942,381 of cap space that his release would create is probably his best use to the team. Such a letdown.
And then there's Jay. He can stick around for 2016 if he plays exceptionally well in 2015 as his dead money charge drops from $13M in 2016 to $2M in 2017, but if the Bears draft a quarterback in 2016, it probably makes more sense to send Jay packing and complete the turning of the page. This will be one of the defining choices of the Ryan Pace era, and I think he'll keep Cutler around for 2016 instead of burning 2016 on a rookie or a journeyman. I just don't know.
(NOTE: watching Jimmy Clausen run the Bears' offense, it seems likely that Cutler will be back next year. The drop off from Jay to the readily available NFL QBs is massive.)
Players to Re-Sign
RB Matt Forte
WR Alshon Jeffery
Forte's contract is genuinely difficult to peg whereas Jeffery's is incredibly easy. Marshawn Lynch, who is the same age as Forte and similarly productive, secured a two-year, $24M extension. I think that such a deal would be a mostly palatable option to the Bears and Forte, though Forte will have more leverage as an impending free agent. Accordingly, I could see a three-year, $35M extension getting the job done with the following structure:
2016: $9M base, $3M roster bonus (guaranteed)
2017: $10M base (guaranteed)
2018: $10M base, $3M roster bonus (no guarantees)
The Bears give Forte a much larger guarantee ($22M) than Lynch, but they effectively just give him a two-year, $22M deal with a roster bonus early in 2018 to allow him to hit free agency, as appropriate, if he is released.
Jeffery is simple. Here are the extensions recently signed by other top young receivers:
AJ Green: 4 years, $60M ($32.75M guaranteed)
Julio Jones: 5 years, $71.3M ($47M guaranteed)
TY Hilton: 5 years, $65M ($28M guaranteed)
Jeffery isn't quite as good as Green or Jones, but he is better than Hilton, though Alshon comes with significant injury concerns. Accordingly, I expect the following deal with Alshon:
Signing Bonus: $12M
2016: $5M base, $2M roster bonus (fully guaranteed)
2017: $8M base (fully guaranteed)
2018: $5M base, $4M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $13M base (no guarantees)
2020: $14M base, $2M roster bonus (no guarantees)
The total guarantee reaches $32M and the year by year cap hit is $9.4M, $10.4M, $11.4M, $15.4M, and $18.4M. It would be reported as a 5 year, $65M deal with $32M guaranteed.
Given the number of comparables, this shouldn't be the toughest deal to execute.
Players to Sign
ILB Brandon Marshall: 5 years, $30M ($12M guaranteed)
OT Andre Smith: 4 years, $24M ($8M guaranteed)
Marshall is a tricky a player, a thrice-waiver undrafted free agent who exploded onto the scene recently. This contract essentially values him like Pernell McPhee, albeit with Marshall at a slightly less expensive position. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $2.5M
2016: $4M base (fully guaranteed)
2017: $5M base, $0.5M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2018: $5M base (no guarantee)
2019: $5.5M base (no guarantee)
2020: $7M base (no guarantee)
Smith, on the other hand, is on the way down in his career with the Bengals ready to cut bait as evidenced by their drafting back-to-back tackles last May. This deal would give him a chance to reestablish himself as a viable starting tackle. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $2M
2016: $4M base (guaranteed)
2017: $2M base, $2M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2018: $6M base (no guarantee)
2019: $8M base (no guarantee)
Obviously the Bears would fill out the roster with cheaper players, but I'm not going through the Terrance Mitchells and the Alan Balls of the football world here.
Draft Dream
I'm assuming that the Bears end up with the fifth overall pick, as I projected before the season began. That will almost certainly be wrong, but I'm going to roll with it.
R1: OLB Joey Bosa (Ohio St.)
R2: S Jalen Mills (LSU)
R3: DE Anthony Zettel (Penn St.)
R4: CB Eric Murray (Minnesota)
R5: ILB Terrance Smith (Florida St.)
R6: TE Johnny Mundt (Oregon)
R7: CB Blake Countess (Auburn)
Holy Toledo, that's a lot of defensive players. I promise that I didn't set out to make such a class; it just worked out like that. I think it goes without saying that I would be thrilled by such a class.
2016 Snapshot in Time
This post is already absurd and nobody will ever read it, so I might as well take a moment to provide a snapshot of the 2016 roster based on these moves:
QB: Jay Cutler, ?????
RB: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, Ka'Deem Carey, ?????
TE: Martellus Bennett, Khari Lee, Johnny Mundt, ?????
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, ?????
WR: Kevin White, Marquess Wilson
LT: Jermon Bushrod, Charles Leno, Jr.
LG: Matt Slauson, ?????
C: Hroniss Grasu
RG: Kyle Long
RT: Andre Smith, Tayo Fabuluje
DE: Ego Ferguson, ?????
NT: Eddie Goldman, ?????
DE: Anthony Zettel, Will Sutton
OLB: Pernell McPhee, ?????
ILB: Christian Jones, ?????
ILB: Terrance Smith, ?????
OLB: Joey Bosa, Lamarr Houston
CB: Kyle Fuller, Blake Countess, ?????
S: Jalen Mills, Brock Vereen
S: Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, ?????
CB: Eric Murray, ?????
2017 Offseason
Players to Cut (cap charge)
QB Jay Cutler ($2M)
RB Ka'Deem Carey ($110,845)
WR Eddie Royal ($0)
OLB Lamarr Houston ($1.98M)
Obviously it's possible that any of these four players could change our perceptions of them over the next 31 games, but it's just as possible that some of them will already be gone by the time March 2017 rolls around. Cutler's exit is clearly the marquee attraction here.
Players to Re-Sign
G Kyle Long
ILB Christian Jones
Although Martellus Bennett will be a free agent, I imagine that he will find his way off of the roster before the end of the 2016 season, though I do enjoy watching him play. Long can be extended on his fifth year option at what figures to be approximately $9M. As for Jones, he may play his way off of the roster by 2017 while he may instead play his way into a restricted free agent tender. Either way, there won't be big contractual decisions to make in early 2017 for players already on the roster.
Players to Sign
WR Emmanuel Sanders: 3 years, $18M ($7M guaranteed)
OLB Quinton Coples: 3 years, $15M ($7M guaranteed)
Sanders makes oodles of sense, and I fully suspect that veterans will be fleeing Denver by March 2017. The breakdown:
Signing Bonus: $0
2017: $5M base (guaranteed)
2018: $3M base, $3M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $7M base (no guarantee)
Here's the breakdown on Coples, a converted defensive end who feels like a fringe starter and gets paid as such to play in a strong rotation with McPhee and Bosa:
Signing Bonus: $3M
2017: $3M (guaranteed)
2018: $1M base, $3M roster bonus (base guaranteed)
2019: $5M (no guarantee)
Draft Dream
R1: QB Christian Hackenberg (Penn St.)
R2: TE O.J. Howard (Alabama)
R3: CB Jalen Tabor (Florida)
R4: ILB Raekwon McMillan (Ohio St.)
R5: NT Austin Johnson (Penn St.)
R7: WR Bralon Addison (Oregon)
I promise I'm not cheating. I think Hackenberg stands a good chance to return to school for his senior season in 2016 to reestablish his stock as an elite quarterback, making millions along the way.
2017 Snapshot in Time
This is the real meat of this entire, monstrous post. The 2017 Bears:
QB: Christian Hackenberg, ?????
RB: Matt Forte, Jeremy Langford, ?????, ?????
TE: O.J. Howard, Johnny Mundt, Khari Lee, ?????
WR: Alshon Jeffery, Bralon Addison, ?????
WR: Kevin White, Emmanuel Sanders
LT: Jermon Bushrod, Charles Leno, Jr.
LG: Matt Slauson, ?????
C: Hroniss Grasu
RG: Kyle Long
RT: Andre Smith, Tayo Fabuluje
DE: Ego Ferguson, ?????
NT: Eddie Goldman, Austin Johnson
DE: Anthony Zettel, Will Sutton
OLB: Pernell McPhee, Quinton Coples
ILB: Raekwon McMillan, ?????
ILB: Terrance Smith, ?????
OLB: Joey Bosa, ?????
CB: Kyle Fuller, Blake Countess, ?????
S: Jalen Mills, Brock Vereen
S: Adrian Amos, Harold Jones-Quartey, ?????
CB: Jalen Tabor, Eric Murray
Pfew. That was a lot.
Decompress and Wrap Up
Look, there's a 0.00000000000001% chance of this happening and quite honestly, I'll be surprised if any of the moves listed above come to fruition. I do know that this exercise has largely confirmed for me what I already believed: the Bears need to add a ton of talent on their defense and a lot of that is going to come through the draft.
That said, they also need to use free agency because the amount of talent required is far greater than their allotment of picks. They need another Pernell McPhee or two, a guy who the metrics love, who the scouts like, and who was otherwise blocked by a star-level player. When you can make a short-term commitment to that kind of guy but with long-term control if it works out, you can strike it rich...or get out of a mistake quickly. That worked exceptionally well for the Bears with Adewale Ogunleye: as it turned out, he was, in fact, really good and not just a Jason Taylor-created mirage. It certainly doesn't always work out like that. But that's where the Bears should live for now.
That's enough for now. The Bears need to add a ton of players, mostly defenders, to the roster before they have a real chance to be relevant and avoid embarrassing showings like they had against the Cardinals. Here's hoping Ryan Pace makes it happen.
Friday, August 21, 2015
Mathematically Accurate 2015 NFL Predictions
*Back on August 14th, I posted my picks for the 2015 NFL season here. Unfortunately, I failed to perform my normal check to make sure that the records lined up. As a result, I gave the league a composite record of 241-271. Ouch. So below, please find a revised post that accounts for the fact that the league, as a whole, has to play .500 ball. I can't change the basic predictions - for example, no accounting for Philip Rivers having already received his extension or Kelvin Benjamin being out for the year for the Panthers - but the records and the draft order are updated as appropriate. The playoff tree is unchanged.
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (11-5): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (8-8): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (6-10): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to not reach January.
St. Louis (9-7): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (4-12): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (3-13): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (10-6): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (8-8): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (3-13): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers got his contract, but I can't change the basic idea: tons of yards.
Kansas City (8-8): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (5-11): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (10-6): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (8-8): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (6-10): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago
6. Oakland
7. Tampa Bay
8. New York Jets
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Dallas
13. Atlanta
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. Detroit
18. St. Louis
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next five clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (11-5): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (8-8): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (6-10): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to not reach January.
St. Louis (9-7): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (4-12): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (3-13): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (10-6): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (8-8): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (3-13): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers got his contract, but I can't change the basic idea: tons of yards.
Kansas City (8-8): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (5-11): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (10-6): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (8-8): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (6-10): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago
6. Oakland
7. Tampa Bay
8. New York Jets
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Dallas
13. Atlanta
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. Detroit
18. St. Louis
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next five clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Thursday, August 20, 2015
Picking Penn State's 2015 Season
Anyone who has spoken with me in the past couple of months knows a few things about my thoughts on Nittany's upcoming season:
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
Friday, August 14, 2015
2015 Chicago Bears Roster Breakdown and Projection
With the shift from the franchise's traditional 4-3 defense to new Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio's 3-4 base, the Bears have signaled the beginning of a new era under fresh GM Ryan Pace. At this point, the roster has already turned over in a big way. Looking toward the 2015 season, here's who I expect to make it on a position-by-position basis. The parentheses that follow the position group name indicate how many players I expect the Bears to keep at such position.
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
On the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence
On the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen
On the Bubble: Michael Ola
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: None
On the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington
On the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass
Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore
On the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean
On the Bubble: Demontre Hurst
On the Bubble: None
QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C: Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S: Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford
That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.
Quarterbacks (2)
Locks: Jay Cutler, Jimmy ClausenOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: The Bears are going to carry Cutler and Clausen. No intrigue here.
Running Backs (4)
Locks: Matt Forte, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jeremy LangfordOn the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry
Analysis: Forte, Rodgers, and Langford will suit up on Opening Day. The fourth spot is a whole lot trickier. Despite being drafted in the fourth round in 2014, Carey finds himself squarely on the bubble already. His uninspiring rookie season has been followed by Langford passing Carey on the depth chart in camp. It's possible that Carey's impressive showing in the preseason opener will sway the coaches; on the other hand, Perry comes with experience and is a plus on special teams. In the end, I suspect that the club will attempt to trade Carey before resigning itself to keep the sophomore in lieu of paying both his cap dead money charge (approximately $333K) and Perry's salary. Regardless, this is probably the battle to watch in camp.
Wide Receivers (5)
Locks: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, Kevin White, Marquess WilsonOn the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence
Analysis: This is obviously another big camp battle, though the reality remains that the winner of the competition for the fifth receiver job will likely be the guy who contributes most on special teams, giving Mariani a leg up in the competition. I'd be surprised to see a sixth receiver make the club, especially with the number of depth options on defense.
Tight Ends (3)
Locks: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach MillerOn the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen
Analysis: The Bears traditionally carry four tight ends, and with no traditional fullback on the roster, they could carry a fourth tight end this year despite the lack of a compelling option. Furthermore, Miller needs to come with an asterisk as he has lost multiple seasons to injury in his career.
Offensive Tackles (3)
Locks: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Charles Leno, Jr.On the Bubble: Michael Ola
Analysis: Mills and Leno may very well be headed for a battle for the right tackle job with Bushrod locked in on the blind side. Ola is something of a long shot to make the club. Sixth-round pick Tayo Fabuluje seems destined for the Practice Squad.
Guards (3)
Locks: Matt Slauson, Kyle Long, Vladimir DucasseOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Much like last season, Slauson and Long will man the starting positions. There are a few names in consideration for the reserve job, but Ducasse comes with experience and starts under his belt without a truly compelling prospect to push him. He'll get the job.
Centers (2)
Locks: Will Montgomery, Hroniss GrasuOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Speaking of lacking intrigue. Montgomery is slated to start on a one-year deal whereas Grasu was just drafted with a third-round pick. They'll both make it.
Nose Tackles (2)
Locks: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie GoldmanOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Just like it was at center, there's nothing interesting here. Ratliff will start, and Goldman was drafted in the second round to be the long-term answer in the interior. Terry Williams isn't in serious consideration for a spot.
Defensive Ends (5)
Locks: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis JenkinsOn the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington
Analysis: This is another compelling position group. Washington proved too small as a 260-pound 4-3 defensive end, yet he put on 25 pounds in an effort to stick as an end in the 3-4. If he maintained his trademark quickness in spite of the added weight, he should make it. Sutton comes from the opposite position, a 4-3 defensive tackle kicking outside in the new alignment. Ditto Dunn. In the end, with only two nose tackles, I think the Bears will end up keeping all five defensive ends. If one guy doesn't make it, I suspect that Dunn will be left holding the short straw.
Outside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Pernell McPhee, Jared Allen, Lamarr HoustonOn the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass
Analysis: The Bears desperately needed to add an impact piece at the new 3-4 outside linebacker spot, and McPhee fit the bill perfectly. Though there's always risk taking a situational player and giving him a full-time job, McPhee's contract was largely risk-free (if cut, his cap hit for 2016 would be just $2M) and his upside is immense. Allen sticks around as a guy with a hefty guaranteed salary. This will be his final year with the Bears.
Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.
Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.
Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore
Analysis: The top four inside 'backers are all effectively assured of their jobs. Jones is penciled in as the starter next to McClellin whereas Bostic comes with huge upside and Foster comes with years of solid, if uninspiring, tape. Wells came over from New England in a rare preseason trade for guard Ryan Groy; it would be strange if the Bears acquired the 2015 sixth-round pick and then cut him a few weeks later, though perhaps he'll head to the Practice Squad. Lattimore proved competent in limited use in 2014, but he's not moving the needle much.
Cornerbacks (5)
Locks: Kyle Fuller, Tim Jennings, Alan BallOn the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean
Analysis: The top four will all stick around, and I had McManis on that top line for a bit before dropping him down. He should still make it. Ditto Porter. Mitchell and Louis-Jean are longshots. Despite seven names for five spots, there's little intrigue here.
Safeties (4)
Locks: Ryan Mundy, Antrel Rolle, Brock Vereen, Adrian AmosOn the Bubble: Demontre Hurst
Analysis: I have been consistently impressed by Hurst's production in games, both live and on television. Unfortunately for him, this roster is not well-shaped to provide him with a window to playing time. I suspect that Ryan Pace will keep him on speed dial in the event of an injury in the secondary.
Specialists (2)
Locks: Robbie Gould, Pat O'Donnell, Thomas GaffordOn the Bubble: None
Analysis: Three guys with jobs as secure as possible.
Cap Situation
It's mostly worthless to look at the club's roster without at least some idea of the team's salary cap situation. The Bears currently stand about $8.5M under the cap for 2015, placing them very near the median figure among NFL clubs. A couple of major numbers will come off of the books in 2016 (Jared Allen, Brandon Marshall) though nearly all of those savings figure to be reinvested into a new, long-term deal for Alshon Jeffery. Regardless, the cap sheet is relatively healthy.
Final Projection
Given everything listed above, here is my projection for the Opening Day 2015 roster:QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C: Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S: Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford
That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.
2015 NFL Predictions
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (10-6): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (7-9): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (5-11): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to reach January.
St. Louis (8-8): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (3-13): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (2-14): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9-7): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (7-9): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (2-14): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers in a contract year: get ready for lots and lots of yards.
Kansas City (7-9): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (4-12): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (9-7): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (7-9): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (4-12): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Oakland
5. Cleveland
6. Chicago
7. New York Jets
8. Tampa Bay
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. Dallas
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. St. Louis
18. Detroit
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next six clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, and the New York Jets - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (10-6): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (7-9): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (5-11): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to reach January.
St. Louis (8-8): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (3-13): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (2-14): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (9-7): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (7-9): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (2-14): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers in a contract year: get ready for lots and lots of yards.
Kansas City (7-9): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (4-12): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (9-7): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (7-9): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (4-12): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Oakland
5. Cleveland
6. Chicago
7. New York Jets
8. Tampa Bay
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Atlanta
13. Dallas
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. St. Louis
18. Detroit
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next six clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Oakland, Cleveland, Chicago, and the New York Jets - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)