*Back on August 14th, I posted my picks for the 2015 NFL season here. Unfortunately, I failed to perform my normal check to make sure that the records lined up. As a result, I gave the league a composite record of 241-271. Ouch. So below, please find a revised post that accounts for the fact that the league, as a whole, has to play .500 ball. I can't change the basic predictions - for example, no accounting for Philip Rivers having already received his extension or Kelvin Benjamin being out for the year for the Panthers - but the records and the draft order are updated as appropriate. The playoff tree is unchanged.
We're in the midst of the first week of the NFL preseason, but for me, it's still all about baseball. The Cubs are playing their best baseball in decades, with September relevance assured and a playoff odds percentage that is creeping up toward 90%.
Nevertheless, I love the Chicago Bears and I want nothing but greatness for them. With last night's preseason opener in the books, it's time to throw out my picks for this season. I'm sure that there will be a slew of injuries throughout the rest of the preseason that seriously impact these records, but the beauty of prognostication is that even the best mathematical systems miss an awful lot.
So using nothing but my gut and my brain, here goes!
NFC NORTH
Green Bay (12-4): Aaron Rodgers + Mike McCarthy + Ted Thompson = see you in January.
Minnesota (11-5): Teddy's offense and Zimmer's defense will win lots of games with this deep roster.
Detroit (8-8): With Ndamukong Suh and Dominic Raiola gone, the Lions need to find a new identity. Unfortunately for them, an 0-4 start (@ SD, @ MIN, v. DEN, @ SEA) will be too much to overcome.
Chicago (4-12): They'll be exciting on offense and brutal on defense; this record is mostly a reflection of their extremely strong division.
NFC SOUTH
Carolina (9-7): Cam Newton, gigantic slow receivers, and a defense. That's enough here.
Atlanta (8-8): This team keeps living in mediocrity, even with Julio Jones and Roddy White wreaking havoc.
New Orleans (6-10): The Brees era is heading for a screaming thud. Their cap management finally catches up to them this year.
Tampa Bay (5-11): Watch out for these guys in December and 2016 onward. A Lovie Smith defense + Jameis Winston's offense can be special. It'll just take a bit of time.
NFC WEST
Seattle (12-4): Because duh.
Arizona (10-6): Way too much defensive ability here now to not reach January.
St. Louis (9-7): Much like Detroit, the schedule makes it too tough right away. Talent is here.
San Francisco (4-12): Oh dear.
NFC EAST
Philadelphia (11-5): Chip makes his move.
Dallas (7-9): When the hype machine calms down, another flawed 'boys team will emerge.
New York (6-10): There's already no offensive line. It's only getting worse on that side of the ball.
Washington (3-13): It'll get better at some point, D.C. fans.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore (10-6): Harbaugh, Flacco, and Co. eek out just enough.
Cincinnati (9-7): They're just so consistently decent.
Pittsburgh (8-8): They're basically the same as Baltimore and Cincinnati, but somebody gets the short stick.
Cleveland (4-12): Still no direction and lots of problems.
AFC SOUTH
Indianapolis (13-3): A 6-0 division record is nearly locked in.
Houston (9-7): I still love Bill O'Brien, and adding Clowney makes that defense formidable.
Jacksonville (6-10): Rather quietly, GM David Caldwell has given QB Blake Bortles a bevy of weapons. Allen Robinson is about to explode onto the scene.
Tennessee (3-13): They are really, really awful.
AFC WEST
Denver (10-6): These Broncos are flawed, but so is the competition.
San Diego (10-6): Rivers got his contract, but I can't change the basic idea: tons of yards.
Kansas City (8-8): Andy Reid and the defense keep it respectable.
Oakland (5-11): Getting better, I suppose, but just barely.
AFC EAST
New England (12-4): Just because. Belichick and angry Brady? It's too obvious.
Miami (10-6): They've got their problems, but Tannehill takes another step with an improved defense.
Buffalo (8-8): Loads of weapons, no quarterback.
New York (6-10): Incredible collection of defensive talent, absolutely no quarterback play.
PLAYOFF TREE
Minnesota over Carolina
Philadelphia over Arizona
Denver over Miami
Baltimore over San Diego
Green Bay over Minnesota
Seattle over Philadelphia
New England over Denver
Indianapolis over Baltimore
Green Bay over Seattle
Indianapolis over New England
Green Bay over Indianapolis
2016 DRAFT ORDER
1. Tennessee
2. Washington
3. San Francisco
4. Cleveland
5. Chicago
6. Oakland
7. Tampa Bay
8. New York Jets
9. New Orleans
10. Jacksonville
11. New York Giants
12. Dallas
13. Atlanta
14. Pittsburgh
15. Buffalo
16. Kansas City
17. Detroit
18. St. Louis
19. Houston
20. Cincinnati
21. Carolina
22. Miami
23. San Diego
24. Arizona
25. Baltimore
26. Denver
27. Minnesota
28. Philadelphia
29. Seattle
30. Indianapolis
31. Green Bay
(*New England is currently slated to surrender their first-round pick as punishment for the Deflategate scandal.)
With those picks made, here are a handful of additional thoughts that I have about this season:
1. The Vikings are going to announce their arrival as a contender, and they'll stay there for the rest of this decade.
2. The NFC North and NFC West will be the class of the NFL this year; even the fourth-place finishers (Chicago and San Francisco, respectively) will play nearly average football.
3. Aaron Rodgers will run away with the MVP award.
4. No team in the AFC North holds a division lead of greater than one game all year; the Ravens knock off the Steelers in Week 16 prior to a Week 17 upset in Cincinnati that punches their playoff ticket.
5. Andrew Luck will make the leap from "elite young QB" to "elite QB."
6. The 2016 pre-draft offseason will be one for the ages as the Tennessee Titans will hold arguably the most highly-sought-after top pick in history with Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg the clear top choice and the next five clubs - Washington, San Francisco, Cleveland, Chicago, and Oakland - all desperately in need of a franchise signal-caller.
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