2015 Chicago Bears Roster Breakdown and Projection

With the shift from the franchise's traditional 4-3 defense to new Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio's 3-4 base, the Bears have signaled the beginning of a new era under fresh GM Ryan Pace. At this point, the roster has already turned over in a big way. Looking toward the 2015 season, here's who I expect to make it on a position-by-position basis. The parentheses that follow the position group name indicate how many players I expect the Bears to keep at such position.

Quarterbacks (2)

Locks: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen
On the Bubble: None

Analysis: The Bears are going to carry Cutler and Clausen. No intrigue here.

Running Backs (4)

Locks: Matt Forte, Jacquizz Rodgers, Jeremy Langford
On the Bubble: Ka'Deem Carey, Senorise Perry

Analysis: Forte, Rodgers, and Langford will suit up on Opening Day. The fourth spot is a whole lot trickier. Despite being drafted in the fourth round in 2014, Carey finds himself squarely on the bubble already. His uninspiring rookie season has been followed by Langford passing Carey on the depth chart in camp. It's possible that Carey's impressive showing in the preseason opener will sway the coaches; on the other hand, Perry comes with experience and is a plus on special teams. In the end, I suspect that the club will attempt to trade Carey before resigning itself to keep the sophomore in lieu of paying both his cap dead money charge (approximately $333K) and Perry's salary. Regardless, this is probably the battle to watch in camp.

Wide Receivers (5)

Locks: Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal, Kevin White, Marquess Wilson
On the Bubble: Josh Bellamy, Cameron Meredith, Marc Mariani, Rashad Lawrence

Analysis: This is obviously another big camp battle, though the reality remains that the winner of the competition for the fifth receiver job will likely be the guy who contributes most on special teams, giving Mariani a leg up in the competition. I'd be surprised to see a sixth receiver make the club, especially with the number of depth options on defense.

Tight Ends (3)

Locks: Martellus Bennett, Dante Rosario, Zach Miller
On the Bubble: Bear Pascoe, Blake Annen

Analysis: The Bears traditionally carry four tight ends, and with no traditional fullback on the roster, they could carry a fourth tight end this year despite the lack of a compelling option. Furthermore, Miller needs to come with an asterisk as he has lost multiple seasons to injury in his career.

Offensive Tackles (3)

Locks: Jermon Bushrod, Jordan Mills, Charles Leno, Jr.
On the Bubble: Michael Ola

Analysis: Mills and Leno may very well be headed for a battle for the right tackle job with Bushrod locked in on the blind side. Ola is something of a long shot to make the club. Sixth-round pick Tayo Fabuluje seems destined for the Practice Squad.

Guards (3)

Locks: Matt Slauson, Kyle Long, Vladimir Ducasse
On the Bubble: None

Analysis: Much like last season, Slauson and Long will man the starting positions. There are a few names in consideration for the reserve job, but Ducasse comes with experience and starts under his belt without a truly compelling prospect to push him. He'll get the job.

Centers (2)

Locks: Will Montgomery, Hroniss Grasu
On the Bubble: None

Analysis: Speaking of lacking intrigue. Montgomery is slated to start on a one-year deal whereas Grasu was just drafted with a third-round pick. They'll both make it.

Nose Tackles (2)

Locks: Jeremiah Ratliff, Eddie Goldman
On the Bubble: None

Analysis: Just like it was at center, there's nothing interesting here. Ratliff will start, and Goldman was drafted in the second round to be the long-term answer in the interior. Terry Williams isn't in serious consideration for a spot.

Defensive Ends (5)

Locks: Ego Ferguson, Jarvis Jenkins
On the Bubble: Will Sutton, Brandon Dunn, Cornelius Washington

Analysis: This is another compelling position group. Washington proved too small as a 260-pound 4-3 defensive end, yet he put on 25 pounds in an effort to stick as an end in the 3-4. If he maintained his trademark quickness in spite of the added weight, he should make it. Sutton comes from the opposite position, a 4-3 defensive tackle kicking outside in the new alignment. Ditto Dunn. In the end, with only two nose tackles, I think the Bears will end up keeping all five defensive ends. If one guy doesn't make it, I suspect that Dunn will be left holding the short straw. 

Outside Linebackers (5)

Locks: Pernell McPhee, Jared Allen, Lamarr Houston
On the Bubble: Sam Acho, Willie Young, David Bass

Analysis: The Bears desperately needed to add an impact piece at the new 3-4 outside linebacker spot, and McPhee fit the bill perfectly. Though there's always risk taking a situational player and giving him a full-time job, McPhee's contract was largely risk-free (if cut, his cap hit for 2016 would be just $2M) and his upside is immense. Allen sticks around as a guy with a hefty guaranteed salary. This will be his final year with the Bears.

Houston flopped in his debut season with the Bears and embarrassingly tore his ACL celebrating his only sack, a garbage-time takedown against New England. Acho comes with some pass rushing success, Young is coming off of a ten-sack season, and Bass has shown some aptitude for pass rushing over the last two years. In the end, Acho, Young, and Bass may very well be competing for two spots. Young's marvelous 2014 campaign - his torn Achilles notwithstanding - should give him the upper hand while Acho's experience in the 3-4 helps his cause. Bass' speed could keep him on the roster, however, so this is the toughest spot for me to pick. In the end, I'll say that Acho and Young stick around while noting that an offer of a sixth-round pick from an opposing general manager would probably get Young, especially if such a deal moved him back into a 4-3 scheme.

Inside Linebackers (5)
Locks: Shea McClellin, Christian Jones, Jon Bostic, Mason Foster
On the Bubble: Matthew Wells, DeDe Lattimore

Analysis: The top four inside 'backers are all effectively assured of their jobs. Jones is penciled in as the starter next to McClellin whereas Bostic comes with huge upside and Foster comes with years of solid, if uninspiring, tape. Wells came over from New England in a rare preseason trade for guard Ryan Groy; it would be strange if the Bears acquired the 2015 sixth-round pick and then cut him a few weeks later, though perhaps he'll head to the Practice Squad. Lattimore proved competent in limited use in 2014, but he's not moving the needle much.

Cornerbacks (5)

Locks: Kyle Fuller, Tim Jennings, Alan Ball
On the Bubble: Sherrick McManis, Tracy Porter, Terrance Mitchell, Al Louis-Jean

Analysis: The top four will all stick around, and I had McManis on that top line for a bit before dropping him down. He should still make it. Ditto Porter. Mitchell and Louis-Jean are longshots. Despite seven names for five spots, there's little intrigue here.

Safeties (4)

Locks: Ryan Mundy, Antrel Rolle, Brock Vereen, Adrian Amos
On the Bubble: Demontre Hurst

Analysis: I have been consistently impressed by Hurst's production in games, both live and on television. Unfortunately for him, this roster is not well-shaped to provide him with a window to playing time. I suspect that Ryan Pace will keep him on speed dial in the event of an injury in the secondary.

Specialists (2)

Locks: Robbie Gould, Pat O'Donnell, Thomas Gafford
On the Bubble: None

Analysis: Three guys with jobs as secure as possible.

Cap Situation

It's mostly worthless to look at the club's roster without at least some idea of the team's salary cap situation. The Bears currently stand about $8.5M under the cap for 2015, placing them very near the median figure among NFL clubs. A couple of major numbers will come off of the books in 2016 (Jared Allen, Brandon Marshall) though nearly all of those savings figure to be reinvested into a new, long-term deal for Alshon Jeffery. Regardless, the cap sheet is relatively healthy.

Final Projection

Given everything listed above, here is my projection for the Opening Day 2015 roster:

QB: Cutler, Clausen
RB: Forte, Rodgers, Langford, Carey
TE: Bennett, Rosario, Miller, Pascoe
OT: Bushrod, Mills, Leno
OG: Slauson, Long, Ducasse
C:   Montgomery, Grasu
WR: Jeffery, Royal, White, Wilson, Bellamy
DE: Ferguson, Jenkins, Sutton, Dunn, Washington
NT: Ratliff, Goldman
OLB: McPhee, Allen, Houston, Acho, Young
ILB: Jones, McClellin, Foster, Bostic, Wells
CB: Fuller, Jennings, Ball, Porter, McManis
S:    Vereen, Rolle, Mundy, Amos, Hurst
SP: Gould, O'Donnell, Gafford

That roster contains 23 players on offense, 27 on defense, and 3 specialists. Should a compelling wide receiver hit the market in the coming weeks, I suspect that the Bears would gobble him up, punting on one of Dunn, Washington, Young, Wells, or Hurst. Until then, the above roster figures to be the 53-man makeup.