Anyone who has spoken with me in the past couple of months knows a few things about my thoughts on Nittany's upcoming season:
1. I'm not a huge James Franklin fan, though I'm certainly interested to see how he handles the program and the early returns are encouraging enough;
2. I think that the schedule lines up very favorably for the club to get on a roll in advance of late-season slugfests; and
3. I'm in love with Christian Hackenberg.
It's crazy. I'm 100% on board the Hacktrain, and I don't plan to get off for 20 years, following Hack from State College, PA to his inevitable home in Chicago, IL. It's going to be a fun run.
Of course, just talking about Hack misses the fact that there's an entire team of guys out there and the entire team has to win or lose games as a unit. So here are some very quick thoughts about the units on the team followed by a slightly more detailed look at my expectations for the schedule. I've organized these positions from weakest to strongest, meaning that we inevitably start with...
Specialists
Gulp. This group is ugly. After Sam Ficken's disastrous debut as a Freshman (that Virginia game was actually a nightmare and not something that really happened, right?), he turned into one of the Big Ten's best kickers. The fact that Ficken's final career play - an overtime extra point - won his final career game was a poetic bookend to his ascent.
Unfortunately, Sam left a vacancy that hasn't yet been filled. Whichever walk-on kicker wins the kicking job (probably going to be Joey Julius), it's going to be a big downgrade. Add in underwhelming Aussie punter Daniel Pasquariello, and you've got a unit in desperate need of improvement going forward. Unfortunately, the 2015 special teams units aren't pretty and they seem exceedingly likely to cost the club a game or two along the way. Franklin has already secured a verbal commitment from the top kicker in the Class of 2016 (Rockford, Michigan's Quinn Nordin) as well as a top-five punter (Atlanta-area leg Blake Gillikin). While that bodes well for the future, Nordin and Gillikin won't help the lackluster 2015 units.
Offensive Line
Before you hate me, I firmly believe that there's plenty of hope for this unit. Yes, it was abysmal last year, and yes, the top player is now protecting Jameis Winston's blind side in Tampa instead of Hack's in PA. Still, the quartet from LG to RT (Brendan Mahon, Angelo Mangiro, Brian Gaia, and Andrew Nelson) all comes with starting experience instead of exclusively question marks and concerns as was the case last year. The 44 sacks cannot be repeated - Hack won't survive the year - but this group should be better. If they can somehow comprise even an average Big Ten line, it'll go a long way toward making for a positive season.
Ah, but then there's the left tackle. Maybe Paris Palmer proves to be the JUCO angel Nittany needs him to be. Maybe Chance Sorrell proves that uncommon redshirt freshman capable of stepping in at the line's most important spot. Color me unexcited about either option.
Running Backs
Look, I've got nothing against this group. Akeel Lynch looks like a strong starter and Mark Allen looks ready to go in a part-time role. Yet, there's underwhelming depth here and Lynch looks like a plus starter instead of a star. That's fine, but not great.
Linebackers
Brandon Bell has placed a target on his back by taking on the responsibility of wearing #11, but his tape suggests that he's ready for that role. On the outside, Jason Cabinda and Nyeem Wartman-White are both plenty competent as starters. However, this unit either needs a true breakout from Cabinda or a big push from lower on the depth chart (we're looking at you, Koa Farmer) to move it's way up this list.
Defensive Line
Anthony Zettel is the second best player on this team and the most valuable member of the defense. Austin Johnson is a blossoming collegiate star next to him. This group should be ideal. Unfortunately, the group of Garrett Sickels, Carl Nassib, Curtis Cothran, and Evan Schwan needs to find a way to produce 120 plus snaps and while I have hope for Sickels, I don't see it for the group. Add in uninspiring depth on the interior, and this group only looks really good, not elite.
Wide Receivers
This group could top the list when all is said and done. The top five receivers feature just one upperclassman, redshirt junior Geno Lewis, an explosive yet inconsistent target. Three sophomores and a redshirt freshman join him among the top options. Saeed Blacknall proved capable of using his 6-3, 211-pound frame effectively last year, especially in making a game-changing touchdown catch when PSU gave Ohio State their toughest game of the year. DeAndre Thompkins put his redshirt year to use, and is poised to win a starting gig.
And then there's the big two options: true sophomore Chris Godwin and redshirt sophomore DaeSean Hamilton. Godwin showed flashes last year, and is certainly capable of playing his way into Hack's favor. Hamilton, on the other hand, is a preseason first-team All-Big Ten selection for a reason. The guy has the hands, quickness, and body to pitch-and-catch all day. This is a really strong group that can carry the team.
Secondary
The strength of the defense, this unit also lacks depth behind the starters like the defensive line, but the starters in the secondary are a glorious quartet. Senior Trevor Williams comes with a multitude of experience at cornerback while true sophomore Grant Haley brings oodles of athleticism (if not size) across from him.
The muscle comes at safety. Senior Jordan Lucas has earned and held a starting job for years, and he should competently quarterback the defense. But sophomore Marcus Allen is the star. I don't know if anybody is talking about the NFL prospects of true sophomore defensive backs, but Allen is headed for the NFL. He has the body, playing style, and football acumen to be a serious player at the next level. He's poised for a monster year.
Tight Ends
The depth here is just silly, largely thanks to Bill O'Brien's recruiting efforts and offense. Redshirt sophomore Adam Breneman flashed brilliance as a true freshman before losing last year to a knee injury. Breneman's injury red flags are flying freely, but there's still plenty of skill in there to be a pass-catching force. Senior Kyle Carter has been the go-to guy at the tight end spot for multiple stretches over the past couple of years, showing strong hands and body control. Carter is even showing up on All-Big Ten lists...yet true sophomore Mike Gesicki is listed atop the depth chart and with good reason: 6-6, 250-pound sure-handed speed targets are always attractive. Hack is going to love this group.
Speaking of...
Quarterbacks
The depth is poor with a true freshman (Tommy Stevens) and two redshirt freshmen (Trace McSorley and Billy Fessler) behind Hack. At 6-0, 196 pounds, McSorley brings a running element that Hack lacks, but he would represent a massive drop off.
The 6-4, 228-pound Hackenberg will carry the team on his shoulders in 2015 or he'll crumble behind a porous offensive line. I'm obviously visualizing the former. The arm is perfect, the footwork is strong, the acumen is solid, and with two dozen starts under his belt, Hack is ready for the leap with something like $20M at stake. He has a chance to be the best quarterback in the country this year, and Nittany's fortunes will follow his right arm and his brain.
Schedule
With that look at the players complete, here are my week-by-week picks, something that will prove completely ridiculous as players get hurt and strengths and weaknesses are revealed.
Week 1: @ Temple (Philadelphia)
Temple has given Penn State a tough time in their meetings over the past few years, and they have forced their way up near the top of the MAC standings.
However, Penn State continues come out ahead and the 2015 Nittany defense should have its way with the Owls.
Pick: Penn State 31, Temple 10
Week 2: v. Buffalo
I hate these games. They're not fun, even if you win 50-0. Let's get to Week 3.
Pick: Penn State 38, Buffalo 7
Week 3: v. Rutgers
The season gets at least a little bit more interesting in Week 3 as Rutgers comes to State College for a primetime date. Penn State's primetime visit to Piscataway in 2014 was one of the year's most frustrating games, albeit one with a marvelous payoff late in the fourth quarter. Don't expect similar results this year. Rutgers still hasn't named its quarterback, and Kyle Flood's squad appears destined for the basement of the Big Ten East.
Pick: Penn State 40, Rutgers 10
Week 4: v. San Diego State
San Diego State is certainly a more formidable opponent than Buffalo or some of the other lower-MAC fodder that has appeared on the schedule in recent years, but the Aztecs are nonetheless a tier or two below Big Ten competition. Preseason rankings have them in a similar spot to that of Temple and Rutgers. Sounds about right to me. I expect similar results.
Pick: Penn State 28, San Diego State 7
Week 5: v. Army
From everything I've been told, it's a cool experience to play an academy. Hopefully the Penn State players enjoy themselves before pummeling the opposition.
Pick: Penn State 45, Army 14
Week 6: v. Indiana
Indiana is a wonderful opponent against whom to open Big Ten play in earnest. The Hoosiers should lack both the depth and the star power to put up a true fight, yet they have given Nittany an inexplicably hard time for four straight years, including an embarrassing beatdown of Penn State in 2013.
I think Penn State will finally get some revenge this year, though not in dominating fashion.
Pick: Penn State 27, Indiana 10
Week 7: @ Ohio State
And then BOOM! At the Horseshoe in primetime, almost certainly a nationally televised showdown between undefeated and highly ranked squads. Ohio State's only marginally challenging game to that point is their Labor Day opener at Virginia Tech, and after the Hokies gave the Buckeyes their only blemish in last year's championship season, I expect Ohio State to be out for blood. They'll be 6-0 and rolling along.
That's unfortunate for Penn State. Nittany's best change is to catch Ohio State in the midst of a slate of challenging games, not as their first true focal point of the season. Joey Bosa will present a problem the likes of which hasn't been seen for the offensive line, and that Ohio State offense is a steamroller. As so often happens, this visit to Columbus will induce nightmares.
Pick: Ohio State 48, Penn State 10
Week 8: @ Maryland
After last year's stirring showing against the Buckeyes during the White Out game, Penn State followed up with the clunker of the year, a truly disheartening and depressing 20-19 loss to the Terrapins in their first-ever matchup as Big Ten foes. That loss dropped the 2014 club to 4-4 as their fourth straight loss, putting many of us in a funk.
Expect revenge in a big way this year. Maryland figures to field one of their weaker teams in recent memory and James Franklin appears uniquely poised to play off of the emotional damage inflicted by the Terps last year. I expect a rousing win following the letdown of Ohio State.
Pick: Penn State 30, Maryland 14
Week 9: v. Illinois
Trap game, anyone? Penn State somehow, rather inexplicably, lost in Champaign last season to a dreadful Illini squad in a game where Hackenberg completed just eight passes and threw for only 93 yards. Tim Beckman is on the hot seat and could very well be out of a job by Week 9, but I don't see it going down that way. Illinois should get off to a hot start against their non-conference foes, but thankfully for Penn State, Nittany catches Illinois at the end of their rough stretch, following games against Nebraska, Iowa (away), and Wisconsin. While both teams figure to be a bit beat up, I think Nittany can overpower Illinois this time.
Pick: Penn State 21, Illinois 15
Week 10: @ Northwestern
Ah, the Wildcats. Pat Fitzgerald's team almost always wins games you wouldn't expect them to win, yet oftentimes loses game they should win. Case in point: the 2014 Wildcats. The 2014 season featured loses to Cal, Northern Illinois, and Illinois, all at home. Ouch.
Yet that same club also beat Penn State, Wisconsin, and Notre Dame (on the road). What in the world?
It feels strange to pick a Northwestern game. I have no idea what's going to happen, but I do have very fond memories of sitting in Ryan Field on a chilly early evening in 2009 watching Daryll Clark's fourth quarter explosion turn a tight matchup into an easy win. Time for Hack to do that, too.
Pick: Penn State 31, Northwestern 20
Week 11: BYE
Finally!
Week 12: v. Michigan
Argh. I get a little angry thinking about this game.
Look, Michigan is going to be way better this year than they were last year simply due to Jim Harbaugh's presence. He's that good.
But how good will they be? And will Penn State be able to make it matter?
I just don't know. There's plenty of talent on both rosters and coaches new to town tasked with getting production out of them. I think that Harbaugh will be better at that...but Penn State has the better talent for their system right now.
Pick: Penn State 31, Michigan 30
Week 13: @ Michigan State
All yours, Mark Dantonio. Have fun fighting it out with Ohio State again!
Pick: Michigan State 28, Penn State 14
I fully expect Penn State to get obliterated by Ohio State this year, but both before and after the showdown in Columbus, the schedule shapes up nicely for a run at double-digit wins. I think they'll get there at 10-2. That'd be really fun.
I think Ohio State will go 12-0 because they have Urban Meyer and they're way more talented than everyone else that they'll play. I think Michigan State will go 9-3, dropping contests to Oregon, Ohio State, and one of Nebraska or Michigan (both road games). I think that Michigan will go 8-4, losing to Ohio State, Penn State, and two of Michigan State, Minnesota, BYU, and Utah.
Ohio State will face Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship Game, a game that the Buckeyes will win by 50 causing media members to wonder if Ohio State should move to the SEC.
It's going to be a fun year everyone!
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