Armed with a bevy of salary cap space -- approximately $77.6M assuming that Jay Cutler, Royal, Massie, and Lamarr Houston all get the axe -- Pace heads into his most important free agency period today.
With that backdrop, I'll offer up thoughts on each move (or non-move) as it occurs, timestamping each post.
*****An important reminder: I don't inflate grades, so a "C" is an average grade, not a B+/A- like it is at most colleges.
*****An important reminder: I don't inflate grades, so a "C" is an average grade, not a B+/A- like it is at most colleges.
(3/9/17 @ 11:02am)
Bears Elect Not to Use the Franchise Tag on WR Alshon Jeffery
Grade: F
Analysis: This is a no-brainer. A team with an asset deficiency cannot afford to give away assets for free. If the Bears have decided that Jeffery is not a part of the future for whatever reason -- be it his injury history or otherwise -- so be it. But allowing him to leave without compensation is an irresponsible waste of an asset. The Bears could have tagged Jeffery and traded him for a mid-round draft pick. The Bears have found Bernard Berrian in the third round and Johnny Knox in the fifth round, turning mediocre picks into core contributors.
While it's still possible that Jeffery does re-sign with the club, the front office took an unjustifiable risk in failing to tag him. That should be unacceptable.
(4:15pm update: With Jeffery off to Philadelphia for $14M on a one-year deal, the Bears' decision to let him walk looks even worse. The club only needed to pay a $3M premium to control the premium talent. Inexcusable.)
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(3/9/17 @ 11:28am)
(4:15pm update: With Jeffery off to Philadelphia for $14M on a one-year deal, the Bears' decision to let him walk looks even worse. The club only needed to pay a $3M premium to control the premium talent. Inexcusable.)
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(3/9/17 @ 11:28am)
Bears Reportedly Sign QB Mike Glennon
Grade: B-
Analysis: I know that most of the football world is shocked by the number that the Bears gave Glennon; I'll reserve full judgment on the specifics of the financials until they are released. For now, I'll assume that Glennon got something like $9M as a signing bonus with base salaries of $5M, $13M, and $18M.
In my eyes, considering the options available and the assets on hand, Glennon is a strong addition. I honestly would have preferred a fourth year on the deal so that the Bears buy a little additional upside.
In one sense, Glennon looks like a stop-gap, just like Brian Hoyer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Colin Kaepernick. On the other hand, those other three quarterbacks have had multi-year runs as starters and proved themselves to be strong backups but underqualified #1s. Glennon hasn't had that chance yet, only getting something like a full year as a rookie on a dreadful team with a porous offensive line.
Glennon comes with a sliver of a hope of being good enough to play well enough in January to give his team a chance to win. Neither Hoyer nor Fitzpatrick offered that and Kaepernick comes with his own set of questions given his wildly inconsistent play over the last couple of years.
As for the money, the Bears have oodles of cap space but little in the way of young talent or excess draft picks. Accordingly, using cash to fill holes is the way to go. I like that the club avoided surrendering other assets to fill the QB spot, even though they easily could have used some package of picks to grab Jimmy Garoppolo from New England. The grade here isn't perfect given that they appear to have bid against themselves to secure Glennon -- a classic Yankees move that I've long pilloried -- but after all, it's just cash and cap space in years where those both are aplenty.
In my ideal scenario, the Bears would sign a QB to start in 2017 and perhaps 2018 while drafting DeShone Kizer after trading down from #3. We're halfway there.
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(3/9/17 @ 1:07pm)
In my eyes, considering the options available and the assets on hand, Glennon is a strong addition. I honestly would have preferred a fourth year on the deal so that the Bears buy a little additional upside.
In one sense, Glennon looks like a stop-gap, just like Brian Hoyer, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or Colin Kaepernick. On the other hand, those other three quarterbacks have had multi-year runs as starters and proved themselves to be strong backups but underqualified #1s. Glennon hasn't had that chance yet, only getting something like a full year as a rookie on a dreadful team with a porous offensive line.
Glennon comes with a sliver of a hope of being good enough to play well enough in January to give his team a chance to win. Neither Hoyer nor Fitzpatrick offered that and Kaepernick comes with his own set of questions given his wildly inconsistent play over the last couple of years.
As for the money, the Bears have oodles of cap space but little in the way of young talent or excess draft picks. Accordingly, using cash to fill holes is the way to go. I like that the club avoided surrendering other assets to fill the QB spot, even though they easily could have used some package of picks to grab Jimmy Garoppolo from New England. The grade here isn't perfect given that they appear to have bid against themselves to secure Glennon -- a classic Yankees move that I've long pilloried -- but after all, it's just cash and cap space in years where those both are aplenty.
In my ideal scenario, the Bears would sign a QB to start in 2017 and perhaps 2018 while drafting DeShone Kizer after trading down from #3. We're halfway there.
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(3/9/17 @ 1:07pm)
Bears Reportedly Sign S Quintin Demps
Grade: C+
Analysis: This is a tricky grade for me.
On the one hand, Demps plays a position of dire need for the franchise, he comes at a very reasonable cost (reportedly $13.5M over three years), and he costs only cash and cap space. Demps bounced around the league for a few years before finally settling in as a starter in Houston and producing a very successful 2016 season as a follow-up to a strong 2015.
On the other hand, Demps was a free agent into mid-April this past year and he signed a measly one-year deal for $1.5M. When a player who was available for peanuts 11 months ago gets a reasonably significant financial commitment as Demps does here, it evinces a failure in the scouting department to effectively find the talented player despite having a full year of game tape on him.
One additional nugget of note: if signing Demps helps the Bears grab talented young corner A.J. Bouye, this move will get an A.
Kudos to Pace for grabbing a good player at a big position of need. But the drawback of missing this evaluation last year is real.
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(3/9/17 @ 1:35pm)
On the one hand, Demps plays a position of dire need for the franchise, he comes at a very reasonable cost (reportedly $13.5M over three years), and he costs only cash and cap space. Demps bounced around the league for a few years before finally settling in as a starter in Houston and producing a very successful 2016 season as a follow-up to a strong 2015.
On the other hand, Demps was a free agent into mid-April this past year and he signed a measly one-year deal for $1.5M. When a player who was available for peanuts 11 months ago gets a reasonably significant financial commitment as Demps does here, it evinces a failure in the scouting department to effectively find the talented player despite having a full year of game tape on him.
One additional nugget of note: if signing Demps helps the Bears grab talented young corner A.J. Bouye, this move will get an A.
Kudos to Pace for grabbing a good player at a big position of need. But the drawback of missing this evaluation last year is real.
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(3/9/17 @ 1:35pm)
Bears Release QB Jay Cutler
Grade: C
Analysis: Duh.
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(3/9/17 @ 3:02pm)
Analysis: Duh.
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(3/9/17 @ 3:02pm)
Bears Reportedly Sign TE Dion Sims
Grade: B
Analysis: While I haven't seen any terms yet on Sims, I'm assuming that he got a two- or three-year deal in the neighborhood of $4M per year, based on my own estimation.
Sims is an NLF-caliber tight end. While he's not a starting option on a contender, he's a very strong #2 and he's very reliable, having played at least 13 games in each of his four seasons. With Zach Miller the opposite of dependability, Sims makes a lot of sense, particularly because he gets solid marks for his blocking.
Sims doesn't get a perfect grade here because he has never been a featured member of a passing offense, so there's some question of his ultimate ceiling as a pass catcher.
In spite of that, I'm biased in his favor having seen Sims at Orchard Lake St. Mary's high school and Michigan State. In a Bears offense light on playmakers -- contrasted with a Dolphins offense brimming with big-play threats -- Sims should get a chance to feature himself a bit more as a receiver.
(3/10/17 @ 9:45am update: Sims grabbed a bit more cash than I expected, nabbing an AAV of $6M instead of $4M. Perhaps that drops the grade to a B- but it doesn't much impact my thoughts here.)
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(3/9/17 @ 4:21pm)
Analysis: While I haven't seen any terms yet on Sims, I'm assuming that he got a two- or three-year deal in the neighborhood of $4M per year, based on my own estimation.
Sims is an NLF-caliber tight end. While he's not a starting option on a contender, he's a very strong #2 and he's very reliable, having played at least 13 games in each of his four seasons. With Zach Miller the opposite of dependability, Sims makes a lot of sense, particularly because he gets solid marks for his blocking.
Sims doesn't get a perfect grade here because he has never been a featured member of a passing offense, so there's some question of his ultimate ceiling as a pass catcher.
In spite of that, I'm biased in his favor having seen Sims at Orchard Lake St. Mary's high school and Michigan State. In a Bears offense light on playmakers -- contrasted with a Dolphins offense brimming with big-play threats -- Sims should get a chance to feature himself a bit more as a receiver.
(3/10/17 @ 9:45am update: Sims grabbed a bit more cash than I expected, nabbing an AAV of $6M instead of $4M. Perhaps that drops the grade to a B- but it doesn't much impact my thoughts here.)
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(3/9/17 @ 4:21pm)
Bears Reportedly Fail to Sign Any of CBs A.J. Bouye, Trumaine Johnson (franchised by Rams), Stephon Gilmore, or Dre Kirkpatrick
Grade: Incomplete (F thus far)
Analysis: Logan Ryan, Prince Amukamara, and Morris Claiborne remain unsigned, though Claiborne would be an alarming addition given that he has only ever produced in his contract year.
A team with a desperate talent deficiency at cornerback and oodles of salary cap space is sitting out the elite portion of the market.
It's a signal that the front office expects 2017 to be a very long year.
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(3/10/17 @ 9:49am)
Analysis: Logan Ryan, Prince Amukamara, and Morris Claiborne remain unsigned, though Claiborne would be an alarming addition given that he has only ever produced in his contract year.
A team with a desperate talent deficiency at cornerback and oodles of salary cap space is sitting out the elite portion of the market.
It's a signal that the front office expects 2017 to be a very long year.
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(3/10/17 @ 9:49am)
Bears Reportedly Sign WR Markus Wheaton
Grade: C
Analysis: It's difficult to grade this acquisition without knowing the contract terms, but given Wheaton's injury-destroyed 2016 season, it's tough to imagine that this is anything more than a glorified one-year deal at something like $3M (the deal was announced as a two-year contract).
Assuming that's the neighborhood, this is a good risk for the Bears to take. They can afford to give Wheaton every-down snaps to see if he's anything more than the #3 he showed himself to be in Pittsburgh. Wheaton comes with a strong pedigree and good athleticism as well.
Despite the grade, this move does little to move the needle in the receivers room.
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(3/10/17 @ 2:07pm)
Analysis: It's difficult to grade this acquisition without knowing the contract terms, but given Wheaton's injury-destroyed 2016 season, it's tough to imagine that this is anything more than a glorified one-year deal at something like $3M (the deal was announced as a two-year contract).
Assuming that's the neighborhood, this is a good risk for the Bears to take. They can afford to give Wheaton every-down snaps to see if he's anything more than the #3 he showed himself to be in Pittsburgh. Wheaton comes with a strong pedigree and good athleticism as well.
Despite the grade, this move does little to move the needle in the receivers room.
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(3/10/17 @ 2:07pm)
Bears Reportedly Sign CB Prince Amukamara
Grade: D
Analysis: This is a strange grade, I know.
Amukamara was on the list of no-doubt starting-caliber cornerbacks that the Bears should have considered this week. Signing him is a huge improvement to the position group.
Why a D? A few reasons. First, Amukamara is signing a one-year deal, his second straight. His signing doesn't add a core piece to the position. Second, although Amukamara is an impressively talented band-aid, he comes with injury issues, having averaged 11.5 games per season over his six-year career. Third, although he made my list of target cornerbacks, Amukamara is arguably the weakest member of this year's strong group of free agent cornerbacks (along with Morris Claiborne).
His signing continues the trend of Ryan Pace whiffing on using his cap space and free agent dollars to find core pieces. Yes, it's true that most of those core pieces should come via the draft, but especially for a team rich in cap space but poor in assets, some of the core players need to come via expensive March deals. Amukamara does not fit that bill.
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(3/10/17 @ 2:12pm)
Analysis: This is a strange grade, I know.
Amukamara was on the list of no-doubt starting-caliber cornerbacks that the Bears should have considered this week. Signing him is a huge improvement to the position group.
Why a D? A few reasons. First, Amukamara is signing a one-year deal, his second straight. His signing doesn't add a core piece to the position. Second, although Amukamara is an impressively talented band-aid, he comes with injury issues, having averaged 11.5 games per season over his six-year career. Third, although he made my list of target cornerbacks, Amukamara is arguably the weakest member of this year's strong group of free agent cornerbacks (along with Morris Claiborne).
His signing continues the trend of Ryan Pace whiffing on using his cap space and free agent dollars to find core pieces. Yes, it's true that most of those core pieces should come via the draft, but especially for a team rich in cap space but poor in assets, some of the core players need to come via expensive March deals. Amukamara does not fit that bill.
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(3/10/17 @ 2:12pm)
Bears Reportedly Sign K Connor Barth
Grade: F
Analysis: There's absolutely no sense in throwing guaranteed dollars -- any guaranteed dollars -- at Barth. He was available last season at the end of the preseason (in early September) and he hardly proved himself to be a valuable asset at kicker.
There's no sense in using guaranteed dollars for a replacement-level player.
I expect that the Bears will have an open competition at kicker this summer/fall with that hope that a younger, non-Barth kicker wins the job. In that instance, the club will cut Barth, taking only a $115,000 cap hit in the process. But that cap hit is $115,000 more than it should be.
A wasteful transaction.
Analysis: There's absolutely no sense in throwing guaranteed dollars -- any guaranteed dollars -- at Barth. He was available last season at the end of the preseason (in early September) and he hardly proved himself to be a valuable asset at kicker.
There's no sense in using guaranteed dollars for a replacement-level player.
I expect that the Bears will have an open competition at kicker this summer/fall with that hope that a younger, non-Barth kicker wins the job. In that instance, the club will cut Barth, taking only a $115,000 cap hit in the process. But that cap hit is $115,000 more than it should be.
A wasteful transaction.
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