Back in late December, I gazed optimistically toward the Chicago Bears' 2017 offseason, a time in which the front office could take another leap forward in reshaping the roster in the image of the great Chicago defenses of years' past while simultaneously anointing new quarterbacks of the present and future (perhaps even the same guy!).
With free agency just one week away and the franchise tag deadline now in the rearview mirror, here are 13 thoughts about the Bears' offseason to date, their approach to the free agency marketplace, and their goals for April's draft.
1. No assigning the franchise tag to WR Alshon Jeffery was a bad football move, but even worse, it was an irresponsible waste of an elite asset.
The franchise tag is one of the most powerful tools that any NFL team holds in its toolbox. After playing under the franchise tag last season, Jeffery would have been entitled to a one-year salary in 2017 of $17,518,800, an astronomical amount for an NFL wide receiver...except that Antonio Brown will eclipse that number in both 2018 and 2019 and he had far less leverage than Jeffery given that Brown remained under contract for 2017 at the time of his extension. Julio Jones just completed a season in which he had a cap hit of $15.9M. The going rate for an elite wide receiver is something in the neighborhood of $15M per year, so while paying Jeffery $17.5M represents a premium, it was likely worth it because (1) it came with no long-term commitment and/or future dead cap space, and (2) the Bears didn't have to compete with other teams to sign Jeffery in a marketplace swimming with cash. Jeffery's market will be scorching hot as most other premier free agents have been franchised and with both Tennessee and San Francisco interested with mountains of cap space.
The Bears will have as much cap space as any team (more on that in a moment), yet they chose not to retain an elite (if flawed) player at the cost of only cash and cap space. That's embarrassing.
Yet that doesn't even get to the worst part: teams can tag and trade players. So even if the Bears were shortsightedly content to let Jeffery walk, they could have tagged him and traded him for some amount of compensation. I won't pretend to know exactly what that compensation would have been, but I do know that it would have been more than nothing which is what the Bears will almost certainly get next week.
Wasting assets is no way to build a team.
2. The Bears are going to have far more salary cap space than they can reasonably use.
Teams often/always use less cap space than they have available, keeping a few million dollars around for use in mid-season acquisitions to fill roster spots vacated by injury or ineffectiveness. Even if the Bears keep $10M in the tank, they're going to have enough money to spend to fill out half a roster.
At present the Bears have approximately $49,961,058 of cap space, a very large number that is actually closer to the middle of the pack than the top of the league. The Cleveland Browns have nearly $106M of space while the San Francisco 49ers have $92.5M of space. Wow.
The above number factors in (1) cap holds for empty roster spots, (2) a draft class hold of $10.6M, (3) dead money of $738,046, (4) a practice squad estimate of $800,000, (5) a spending adjustment of $5.4M (to offset the draft class and cap holds above), and (6) the Bears' $8.1M upward adjustment to their cap based on their 2016 rollover.
However, that number is misleading.
The Bears are going to cut Jay Cutler. They're going to cut Eddie Royal. They're highly likely to cut Lamarr Houston. There's even a chance that they cut Bobby Massie, though his late-season play last year may earn him another year.
Assuming Massie sticks around, the Bears will "save" an additional $24.01M against the cap by releasing Cutler, Royal, and Houston, kicking their functional cap space up to $72,351,058. That's a ton of cap space.
3. The Bears don't have much in the way of notable young talent deserving of an extension in the next year or two.
This is a sobering moment. The Phil Emery draft classes didn't work out well. At all. By class:
2012: Of six picks, only Jeffery remained a Bear in 2016. Only Jeffery and LB Shea McClellin were in the NFL.
2013: Of six picks, only OG Kyle Long, DE Cornelius Washington, and WR Marquess Wilson remained Bears in 2016. Only Long figures to stick around.
2014: Of eight picks, only CB Kyle Fuller, DT Will Sutton, RB Ka'Deem Carey, P Pat O'Donnell, and LT Charles Leno were Bears in 2016. None look like impact players, though O'Donnell has been solid.
Thanks to trades and poor drafting, the Bears also lack a single player on the roster from the Jerry Angelo era meaning that, as soon as this season, the Bears could plausibly have just Long and O'Donnell as starters that preceded the Ryan Pace regime, though the below-average Leno may hold his job out of necessity. Ugh.
One benefit of this horrific drafting record: the Bears barely have any money at all tied up in their own picks and they don't have any recent picks of note in need of extensions.
Accordingly, that cap space is either going to free agents or its going to waste away.
4. Most of the elite free agents won't reach free agency by virtue of either signing extensions or being franchise tagged.
Yet another sobering reality. At the beginning of the offseason, it appeared as though the Bears would have a nice selection of defensive back targets as they looked to rebuild their cornerback position that has been subpar since Charles Tillman left for Carolina and their safety unit that has been dreadful since Mike Brown and Chris Harris left town (though I remain one of the last few Chris Conte holdouts).
Unfortunately, since that time, the Rams franchised elite cornerback Trumaine Johnson and the Chiefs handed out a massive contract to star safety Eric Berry, removing two of the best defensive backs from the market. Three of the top pass rushers expected to hit the market also received the tag as Melvin Ingram, Chandler Jones, and Jason Pierre-Paul won't be going anywhere.
There's still enough in the free agent cupboard to augment the roster, but the Bears had to be salivating at the chance to add Berry or Johnson.
5. Don't trade for Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo.
An abrupt change in tone to highlight something that must be said: I have no doubt that the Patriots will trade Garoppolo given that he only has one year remaining on his contract and he won't be franchised next year, regardless of what the Patriots brass might say to the press. But I don't want the Bears to be the team that trades for him unless the price comes well down from what has been reported.
Garoppolo was the 62nd pick in the 2014 draft. Since that time, he has thrown 94 passes. Total. Although he was expected to start for the Patriots' first four games in 2016 while Tom Brady served his suspension, Garoppolo made it through just 80 minutes before spraining a joint in his throwing shoulder. He was below-average against Arizona in Week 1, then lit up Miami on three drives before sustaining the injury. That's his entire resume.
Any team trading for Garoppolo has to pay for him twice, first by surrendering what will likely be a first-round pick (or its equivalent) plus some filler assets and second by extending Garoppolo either in 2018 or in 2019 after using the franchise tag on him in 2018. The cost is astronomical, the kind of cost you'd expect to pay for an established playoff-caliber quarterback.
Instead, you get a backup with fewer than 100 passes to his name. There's not nearly enough data on Garoppolo to justify that bounty. Unless the price comes way down (perhaps 3rd and 4th round picks?), Ryan Pace should stay away.
6. Sign free agent QB Mike Glennon.
My initial reaction to these murmurs was disdain, but I've quickly come around. Handing the offense to Brian Hoyer is a waste given that there's maybe a 0.00001% chance of Hoyer growing into the type of quarterback that can make real noise in January. Giving the offense to Matt Barkley yields perhaps a 1% chance of finding a January quarterback, an improvement but still with terrible odds.
Glennon has major flaws, not the least of which is that he hasn't played much for years thanks to the arrival of Jameis Winston in Tampa. Glennon also lacks any semblance of mobility. It's not a great combination.
Yet Glennon costs only money and cap space whereas most other quarterbacks require the Bears to spend much more valuable draft capital. Glennon could be signed to something like a four-year, $58M deal that is really a two-year pact as follows:
Signing Bonus: $0
Y1: $6M base salary, $9M roster bonus
Y2: $9M base salary (guaranteed)
Y3: $16M base salary
Y4: $18M base salary
If Glennon emerges as a real starting option, the third and fourth year salaries are below-market which are, at the very least, an attractive trade chip. Nice. If he's a flop, he's off the books by the time the Bears need to have cap space available to (hopefully) extend members of the 2015 draft class like WR Kevin White and NT Eddie Goldman.
Of course, I don't expect Glennon to be the long-term answer. See #11 below.
7. Rebuild the secondary with young free agents without regard to cost.
The Bears have done a good job compiling assets in the front-seven defensively, though Danny Trevathan's patellar tendon injury has thrown a wrench into those plans. Still, Trevathan, Jerrell Freeman, and Nick Kwiatkoski look solid in the middle, Pernell McPhee, Leonard Floyd, and Willie Young are strong on the outside, Akiem Hicks and hopefully Jonathan Bullard can handle defensive end, and Eddie Goldman is a stud (when healthy) at the nose. There's plenty to build on up front.
But in the back? It's ugly. I think that Adrian Amos is a find second safety, but he needs a backfield ace next to him. Similarly, there are plenty of capable bodies at cornerback in Tracy Porter, Kyle Fuller (I hope), Bryce Callahan (an ERFA), and especially Cre'von LeBlanc, but those players are best suited to be third or fourth cornerbacks, not starters as has been the case.
Thankfully, this free agent class offers numerous quality options, even with some of the top names off of the market.
It all starts with Cardinals safety Tony Jefferson. Jefferson was an undrafted free agent in 2013 and after playing 2016 under a tender offer, he is an unrestricted free agent. I've seen contract estimates for him as low as $24M over four years, and while I understand the hesitancy with a player leaving an elite secondary featuring Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, I expect that Jefferson will earn far more, despite his lack of pedigree. He's something of a strange prospect given that he was both an elite recruit and a Freshman All-American at Oklahoma before going undrafted. Nevertheless, he just turned 25, so he remains stuck in the middle of his prime years. I suspect that he'll end up with a four-year, $40M deal before free agency is done and I'd love to see him come to the Bears. If not Jefferson, the Bears could look to big-hitting Jacksonville safety John Cyprien, LA's T.J. McDonald, or Dallas free agent Barry Church. It'll be tough to project a strong secondary without at least a solid addition from outside the organization.
The cornerback market is somewhat similar in that, in my eyes, seven starting-caliber corners are available, all of whom will command a rather significant financial investment: A.J. Bouye, Logan Ryan, Stephon Gilmore, Prince Amukamara, Morris Claiborne, Dre Kirkpatrick, and Ross Cockrell. I'm partial to Bouye (the top corner available), Gilmore, Amukamara, and Kirkpatrick. The last three come with strong pedigrees and production. Bouye is the real wild card as he came out of nowhere in 2016. Both Gilmore and Kirkpatrick have pedigrees and are young enough to play well for years.
8. Sign WR Robert Woods.
This should be a no-brainer. The Bears need young talent and Woods likely won't require anything more than a glorified two-year deal (like most NFL contracts) despite being just 25. It's too sensible.
9. Kick the tires on free agent LT Russell Okung.
I have no idea what Okung's price tag will be, but the Broncos walked away from a one-year, $11.7M deal with Okung last month, so he doesn't figure to break the bank. His extensive injury history is alarming, but his talent is enthralling. With Leno still under club control, grabbing Okung to kick Leno to the swing tackle role is a prudent move, especially with both Cody Whitehair and Kyle Long around to play tackle in an emergency capacity.
10. Draft a tight end.
Of all of the positions where the Bears desperately need an infusion of talent -- and there are a lot of them -- tight end really stands out to me. Greg Olsen was a real weapon as a Bear and Martellus Bennett made innumerable game-changing plays in his short time with the franchise.
This year's draft class features a pair of scintillating talents at the position in Alabama's OJ Howard and Miami's David Njoku. If either player manages to slip to the Bears' pick at #36 in the second round, the club would be wise to scoop him up. There's no true long-term asset at the position on the roster at present. Either of these tremendous athletes would change that and give the Bears' new quarterback a building-block target.
Speaking of...
11. Draft QB DeShone Kizer, ideally after trading down from #3 overall.
The Bears need assets and lots of 'em, so trading down makes oodles of sense. I've been partial to Kizer throughout the draft process and with only eight weeks to go, I expect that he'll remain my preferred QB target for the Bears. Mitch Trubisky is appealing, Deshaun Watson is intriguing, and Pat Mahomes is volatile, but Kizer should be the target. He's got the arm, pro-system experience, and mobility to be an impact player at QB, even if he needs a year or so to learn the ways of the NFL. Most mock drafts have Kizer going in the middle of the first round, so it's entirely possible that the Bears will just have to take him at #3. Fine by me.
Of course, the ideal scenario involves OLB Myles Garrett inexplicably falling to #3 where the Bears draft him and enjoy his career prior to his 2038 induction into the Hall of Fame. Barring that, get your hands on Kizer.
12. Other possibilities at #3.
#3 is a tasty spot. Garrett is the dream, but there's almost no chance he falls that far, something that sounds goofy to say about the #3 pick. Garrett is that type of talent.
Alabama DE Jonathan Allen would be a tremendous fit with the Bears and he's unlikely to escape the top five, so the Bears will have to nab him at #3 if he is the pick. If the Bears decide to completely flip the script at safety, they could sign Jefferson as noted above and use the #3 pick on either LSU's Jamal Adams or Ohio State's Malik Hooker. No safety has ever been drafted so high, so it would be unprecedented.
Other sensible options include Tennessee OLB Derek Barnett, Ohio State CB Marshon Lattimore, Alabama CB Marlon Humphrey, and Alabama OT Cam Robinson, provided that the front office agrees with me in thinking that Robinson will be a left tackle as a pro and not a right tackle.
The Bears are situated very nicely in the draft for a couple of reasons. First, the elite talent -- Garrett -- is a non-quarterback. Normally that's a bummer when drafting at the top, but for a team at #3 instead of #1, this is a plus. Either the top talent slides or a top quarterback is available at #3. Second, there are a pair of quarterbacks that look like franchise QB starter kits: Kizer and Trubisky. At least one of Garrett, Kizer, or Trubisky has to be available at #3, leaving the Bears is a strong spot. Third, much of the top-12 talent is in the defensive backfield, an area of tremendous need. If the Bears do trade down a handful of spots, they're highly likely to find an impact player at a position of need. That's not the reason to draft a particular player, but it certainly is a nice bonus.
13. Other draft thoughts and targets.
The aforementioned draft classes from the late-Angelo era and the Emery regime are the primary reason that the Bears find themselves with yet another top-ten pick. Conversely, the early Angelo draft classes built the foundation of a championship defense with picks like Peanut Tillman, Lance Briggs, Tommie Harris, Alex Brown, Nathan Vasher, Chris Harris, Daniel Manning, and even subs like Tank Johnson, Ian Scott, Mark Anderson, and Todd Johnson.
It takes a number of successful draft classes to form a winning core. The early returns on Pace's drafts have been encouraging if imperfect. The White injuries have been a real blow to the classes and Floyd's concussions have a chance to be a big problem. However, at present, Floyd, Goldman, Amos, Whitehair, and Jordan Howard look like strong keepers. Jeremy Langford is find as a backup running back and both Hroniss Grasu and White enter their third seasons with opportunities to cement themselves as contributors. From last year's class, the early returns were promising for Kwiatkoski and Deiondre' Hall, though injuries to Deon Bush, Hall, and DeAndre Houston-Carson stunted their development somewhat. This is an important offseason for last year's draftees with the club expected to fill in some veteran talent around them.
It's worth pointing out that Bullard finds himself with a wide open pathway to a starting gig this year, though that door could be slammed in his face if Allen is the pick at #3. I liked Bullard a lot as a prospect in last year's draft, but he'll need a second-year leap to get regular snaps.
Focusing on this year's draft, the options are seemingly endless for the Bears. Here's a list of players in each spot that I'd like to see the team consider:
#3: Garrett, Kizer, Trubisky, Allen, Hooker, Adams, Barnett, Lattimore, Humphrey, Robinson (discussed above)
#36: Njoku and Howard as discussed above; USC CB Adoree' Jackson (great athlete and can return kicks, too), Washington WR John Ross (small but explosive), Michigan State DE Malik McDowell (a great 3-4 DE fit), Michigan S/LB Jabrill Peppers (great athlete with football smarts galore, even if he's homeless), Florida CB Jalen Tabor (good prospect), Wisconsin OLB T.J. Watt (duh).
#67: Louisiana Tech WR Carlos Henderson (big play in tiny body), Washington CB Kevin King (great size and ball skills), Bucknell OT Julie'n Davenport (big frame but likely needs time), Ole Miss TE Evan Engram (fast but undersized), South Alabama TE Gerald Everett (ditto), Penn State WR Chris Godwin (no elite skills but a good-looking #2 option), Clemson CB Cordrea Tankersley (nice size).
#111: Auburn OLB Carl Lawson (elite athlete, huge injury red flags), Michigan State S Montae Nicholson (huge body with speed and strong play), Michigan TE Jake Butt (knee injury complicates this), Michigan WR Amara Darboh (similar to Godwin), Ashland TE Adam Shaheen (I don't love the tape or fluidity, but the measureables are incredible), LSU WR Travin Dural (good athlete with mediocre film).
#117: Ditto #111
#147: Penn State OLB Garrett Sickels (solid citizen but probably not a huge impact), Florida ILB Alex Anzalone (a security blanket for Trevathan and long-term fix for Freeman), Baylor WR K.D. Cannon (quick and explosive, but small).
#221: South Carolina OLB Darius English (little but quick), Michigan State TE Josiah Price (somewhat athletic, good blocker), Pitt NT Tyrique Jarrett (the Bears can't have Goldman go it alone given his injury history), Tennessee WR Josh Malone (great measureables).
Provided that the Bears don't make any trades and that Garrett goes either #1 or #2 overall, here's the type of draft I can sink my teeth into:
#3: QB DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame)
#36: DE Malik McDowell (Michigan State)
#67: WR Carlos Henderson (LA Tech)
#111: OLB Carl Lawson (Auburn)
#117: S Montae Nicholson (Michigan State)
#147: WR K.D. Cannon (Baylor)
#221: NT Tyrique Jarrett (Pitt)
Yes, I know that I implored the Bears to draft a tight end and then I didn't draft a tight end myself. So sue me. Kizer is the franchise-changing pick here (obviously). But I'm a huge fan of McDowell in the second round if he makes it there. Henderson might be high (or he might be low), but the Bears desperately need some explosiveness and he fits the bill. Nicholson is arguably the biggest get as a tremendous athlete on the back end.
Normally I'm obsessed with selecting linemen, believing that linemen make the difference in every game. Here, the Bears get one Day One starter on the line, but that's likely it. However, a quartet of factors have me drafting outside players instead:
1. The Bears' offensive line is in tremendous shape;
2. The Bears' defensive line is in good shape and Akiem Hicks is likely heading for an extension, keeping the core pieces (Hicks and Goldman) intact;
3. I've watching too many years of subpar play in the secondary; and
4. The Bears' wide receiving corps has been eviscerated by attrition over the years and desperately needs some players who can make plays with the ball in their ends.
So there we have it. Is that a great team? Nope. But it's another step forward (after the monstrous step back in allowing Jeffrey to leave).
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