2017 MLB Predictions

Last year's picks featured some nice choices, like picking the Indians to lose the World Series and pegging the Cubs for baseball's best regular season record. Of course, there were also some real duds that stand out like sore thumbs: picking both Houston and Anaheim 10 wins too high, missing both Arizona and Colorado by 15 games (in opposite directions), overshooting the Twins by 19 wins, and, worst of all, picking the playoff-bound Orioles to finish 22 games under .500. Alas, on the whole, I feel pretty good about the picks for the teams.

My award picks were all over the place. My pick for NL MVP -- Giancarlo Stanton -- posted the worst season of his career and didn't garner a single vote. On the other hand, my AL pick -- Mike Trout -- won the award. My Cy Young picks finished third and fourth. But like my MVP picks, my Rookie of the Year picks were right on (Corey Seager) and wildly off (Byron Buxton) just like my Manager of the Year choices (Terry Francona won whereas Bruce Bochy got no votes).

Enough looking back. Let's look to 2017 as the World Champion Chicago Cubs look to defend their crown. As always, italicized teams will participate in the postseason.

American League West
Houston (94-68)
Seattle (86-76)
Texas (82-80)
Anaheim (73-89)
Oakland (65-97)

Last year, the Texas Rangers posted a Pythagorean record of just 82-80 yet they parlayed a strong bullpen and a run of luck into 95 wins and the American League's best record. That's not happening again. They'll be better but the luck won't carry over, yielding a disappointing season in light of last year's fun. Texas also already has a franchise-high payroll despite a huge impending decision on Yu Darvish. There's little financial flexibility here.

Instead, the division crown will go to the team that both has the strongest current roster and the best ability to make a move this summer to embolden their playoff chances. The Astros already had a superb infield with Carlos Correa flanked by Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, but they filled out holes over the last year adding Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Yulieski Gurriel. There are real issues here -- Nori Aoki ain't much in left, the starting rotation lacks inspiring depth options, and I don't buy George Springer as an everyday glove in center -- but the strong offense, loaded bullpen, and strong top-four in the rotation should gobble up plenty of wins in Houston. Throw in that, although payroll is at a franchise-high level, I suspect that they have $10M+ left to spend given that they're just now back above their 2009 level and that they have a loaded farm system, and Houston looks like a big buyer on the summer starting pitching market.

Seattle remains stuck in the middle with just enough talent to be good but not enough upside to be better than that. Payroll is ballooning and big raises are due next year to Kyle Seager, Drew Smyly, Jean Segura, and James Paxton. Plus, the farm is atrocious. Jerry DiPoto may have to blow things up this year.

Poor Mike Trout. He's arguably the best baseball player ever. He's rich beyond dreams. And he plays for a team expected to start Martin Maldonado, Danny Espinosa, Yunel Escobar, and Luis Valbuena in the same infield. All of those players are solid as the third or fourth best among the group of four infielders and a catcher, but stuck altogether in the same group? That's no good. Add in a perennially injured rotation and the outlook is bleak.

Then there's Oakland. The projection systems don't hate the A's, but I see a team going nowhere fast with a general manger willing to sell off all of his spare parts. So, come July, expect to see Ryan Madson, Sean Doolittle, Rajai Davis, Jed Lowrie, John Axford, and perhaps even Sonny Gray packing their bags. Throw in some growing pains for promising young starters Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton and you've got the recipe for a dreadful season.

American League Central
Cleveland (99-63)
Detroit (89-73)
Kansas City (75-87)
Minnesota (71-91)
Chicago (60-102)

Cleveland is awesome. Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis are two of my favorite ballplayers, and they're surrounded in a lineup by average or better starters at just about every spot, Tyler Naquin skepticism notwithstanding, and adding Edwin Encarnacion was a genius move. Still, this team is driven by their prodigious arms. Kluber-Carrasco-Salazar once again looks excellent, and Bauer-Tomlin as the 4-5 is strong. The bullpen of Miller-Allen-Shaw-McAllister-Otero inexplicably got a boost with the arrival of Boone Logan, as if that was needed. The Indians are going to win a ton of games in 2017, in small part because their division is tanking but in large part because they're darn good at baseball.

I'm still a sucker for the Tigers. I love that rotation at the top with Justin Verlander, Jordan Zimmermann, and Michael, and between Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, Anibal Sanchez, and Mike Pelfrey, Detroit should be able to throw a solid starter in every game. That's a good start. The bullpen is a little wobbly, but Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson form a nice duo while the Tigers hope for bounce-back years from Bruce Rondon and Mark Lowe. Still, it's all about the offense. Some year, guys like Miggy, Kinsler, and Victor Martinez are going to fall off of a cliff. But not this year. Surround them with Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez, Jose Iglesias, and big problems at catcher and in center field and you've got a flawed team with the chance to score a lot. I'll buy the upside, just like I do every year. The caveat here, of course: with Mike Ilitch gone, will his family keep spending at the current level or will they look to slash expenses in advanced of a sale?

The core that took the Royals to back-to-back World Series just a few years ago is on track to get one last crack at postseason glory in 2017, but I have a hard time seeing it work. Payroll has exploded in Kansas City but win totals have dropped, meaning that big extensions aren't coming for Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas, and Eric Hosmer. I suspect that the club will keep one of that trio, but probably not two and definitely not three. Their rotation looks poor and possibly quite bad following the tragic death of Yordano Ventura, and their once-heralded bullpen looks increasingly like Kelvin Herrera, Joakim Soria, and a prayer for afternoon showers. The farm system is a disaster. Kansas City will need huge years from Jorge Soler and Raul Mondesi to have a real shot at a .500 season. It's not happening.

In full disclosure, while preparing this piece, I expected to find the Twins' farm system stronger than it is. Nick Gordon and Tyler Jay both look like big-time pieces for the long haul, but neither should help much -- if at all -- in 2017. Accordingly, even though I'm expecting solid jumps from Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, the Twins will likely saunter through another ho-hum season this year, selling off Hector Santiago and some bullpen pieces at the deadline as they look to compete in 2018 behind a Buxton-Sano-Dozier core. I still don't see it and it leaves me curious as to what the roster might look like when this team is good again.

Finally, we have a festival in Chicago: Tankapalooza: 2017. Get ready for stories about how Yoan Moncada is working on his defense and how Michael Kopech's and Lucas Giolito's secondaries need just a little more fine tuning. The Sox are looking to lose in 2017, and the only things standing in the way of such a plan are (1) Jose Quintana, (2) Todd Frazier, and, to a lesser extent, (3) David Robertson. Plan your trades accordingly. The core of the next south side contender is already in-house, but expect the Sox to keep most of those stud prospects in the minors and tank so they can add a top-three pick in the 2018 draft to the stockpile.

American League Central
Boston (93-69)
Toronto (86-76)
Tampa Bay (80-82)
New York (78-84)
Baltimore (74-88)

One of the reasons you can never have too much of a good thing: sometimes David Price's elbow goes "owwww." Boston should still be fine in spite of that injury, but the rotation depth that looked elite now looks more like it is really good. It feels a little strange to see the likes of Sandy Leon and Mitch Moreland get some many PAs for a 93-win team, but that's where the new Killer Bs come in: Betts, Benintendi, and Bogaerts (and possibly Bradley, too). We'll see you in October, Chris Sale.

The Blue Jays are in a weird spot, trying to eek one more year out of an aging position player core. The rotation, conversely, is spearheaded by young guns Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez, two of baseball's best young arms. The bullpen is too with anchor Roberto Osuna. Alas, can Russell Martin, Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales, and Justin Smoak do enough to help the Donaldson-Tulowitzki-Pillar-Bautista core make one more run? I say yes...but barely.

The Rays are sneaky solid with lots of good rotation options and an offense capable of supporting some defensive stars. However, the arms come with gobs of injury concerns and the offense lacks much in the way of ceiling, rendering an overall ceiling around .500. I think that they'll get surprisingly close to that, but they won't be close enough in late July to justify standing pat or even adding. Their balance sheet is remarkably clean, however, and it facilitated strong moves to sign Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris as well as extend Kevin Kiermaier on a wildly team-friendly deal.

Ah, the Yankees. How weird it is to stick them down here again. This is where they've chosen to live by accumulating an entire cadre of below-average position players, save for Gary Sanchez. The rotation offers some strength at the top with Masahiro Tanaka and Michael Pineda, but the depth comes with mediocre ceilings unless Luis Severino surprises. The Chapman-Betances door-slamming operation will make 8th inning leads hold up, but will there be enough of those? Nah.

I never understand why the Orioles win, nor do I see it coming. I won't be fooled again in 2017...because the Orioles won't win. Manny Machado is an elite, super-duper star, but every other position player, despite being roughly average, comes with serious warts. And the starting pitching is a grab bag. I just don't see it.

National League West
Los Angeles (96-66)
San Francisco (91-71)
Colorado (84-78)
Arizona (79-83)
San Diego (59-103)

The Dodgers rotation is hilarious. They have baseball's best pitcher (Kershaw) and one of its best young arms (Julio Urias) followed by six versions of Rich Hill: great pitchers when they're healthy...who are rarely healthy. I, for one, love that approach to building a rotation. If everyone happens to be healthy, that's spectacular! If half of them are hurt, you've got a great five-man rotation! If more than three are hurt, oh well, fill in the gaps. The bullpen has my favorite reliever (Kenley Jansen) followed by a couple of interesting arms with more depth than last year. They may need a boost still. The offense is similarly funny with 15 starting position players for eight jobs. They're floor is absurdly high.

Speaking of high floors: the Giants are above-average at almost every spot, save for left field, they've got two aces, a couple of nice mid-rotation arms, and just three plus relievers following the elbow injury to Will Smith. They can absorb an injury or two, though not as many as the Dodgers (no team can). The farm system is very poor, but for a team that likely only needs to add a starting pitcher, what do you know: two of their top prospects, Tyler Beede and Ty Blach, are MLB-ready and are starting pitchers. Some teams get all of the luck (and/or plan very well).

Like so many other baseball followers, I was befuddled by Colorado's acquisition of Ian Desmond considering the cash commitment he required as well as the loss of the draft's top unprotected pick at #11 overall. Unlike many others, I've long been wildly in favor of the Rockies' top prospects, so I appreciate making a splashy move now to attempt to fill a glaring hole. I suspect that, once he returns from injury, Desmond will play a superb defensive first base while offering roughly average offense at the spot. That's a pretty nifty player and the flexibility of a starting first baseman who doubles as a backup middle infielder is, if nothing else, novel. The pitching staff is thin for my taste, but I've long adored Jon Gray and see him emerging as an ace either this year or next. I've never liked Jeff Hoffman all that much, but the skills are there for him to be a mid-rotation arm. His development will be crucial this year. The Colorado bullpen has a chance to be superb, but the risk is extreme with the two biggest pieces, Greg Holland and Jake McGee. If both produce and Adam Ottavino and Carlos Estevez do as well, the Rox could surprise. It's not hard to see Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and David Dahl forming the core of a contender, especially flanked by in-prime bats like Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, DJ LeMahieu, and Desmond. Catching remains a problem spot, but there's plenty in the pipeline to swing a big deal for a mercenary like Jonathan Lucroy.

The Diamondbacks find themselves with a handful of star players in Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, Zack Greinke, and Robbie Ray. They also have a quintet of intriguing young starters in Archie Bradley, Taijuan Walker, Shelby Miller, Braden Shipley, and Patrick Corbin, any of whom could wonderfully fill out their rotation wonderfully well. Unfortunately for Arizona, they also have a horrendous bullpen, subpar catching, a terrible middle infield, and possibly the worst left field situation in all of baseball. I really adore that rotation and it could be elite. But it could just as easily hover around average. The farm is entirely bereft of impact talent. I don't know how they've done it, but the D-Backs have managed to combine a handful of stars and an impact rotation yet still come away with a mediocre team. Incredible.

And then the tankers. The Padres have taken a creative approach to tanking this year, combining a strong bullpen with a bunch of interesting position players, plenty of whom come with upside, with an unabashedly horrific rotation. They're going to lose a ton this year and next with an eye on improving in 2019 and winning a lot in 2020 around a position player core of Wil Myers, Austin Hedges, Manny Margot, and Hunter Renfroe supporting a strong rotation headlined by Cal Quantrill, Anderson Espinoza, Jacob Nix, and Adrian Morejon, in addition to whoever they add in the coming drafts.

National League Central
Chicago (98-64)
St. Louis (88-74)
Pittsburgh (85-77)
Cincinnati (66-96)
Milwaukee (63-99)

I don't care that the Cubs were remarkably healthy last year with their pitching. And I don't care that it's tough to repeat. The Cubs have one lineup spot that figures to be below-average -- center field, as fueled part by the misguided signing of Jon Jay given the presence of Albert Almora and Matt Szczur -- surrounded by seven spots that range from above-average to elite. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Addison Russell will all get MVP votes in 2017 just like they did in 2016. Kyle Schwarber may get some, too, even though his defense will knock his value down a notch or two. Jason Heyward's glove will keep him strong with offensive contributions being a bonus. And then there's Javy. The Cubs remain loaded offensively and defensively. The rotation features similar depth to that of last year's club, but it's tough to imagine the health working out as well. No matter. Between Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey, Montgomery, Anderson, and Butler, I'm confident that the Cubs will have a tremendous starting staff all year. The bullpen looks to be even better than last year with Wade Davis an elite arm (elbow warning bells) and the gaggle of Rondon, Uehara, Edwards, Strop, and Grimm all looking tough alongside Davis. If Brian Duensing shows anything, great! If not, expect Theo to shop in July and to finally pry Sean Doolittle out of Oakland. Add in Joe Maddon and Chris Bosio, and 2017 should be another long year in Chicago, again for the right reasons. Improvement from Almora's bat would be a huge boon to the squad as would Ian Happ or Jeimer Candelario forcing their way into the lineup. But that's all gravy.

The Cardinals are tricky. They're within a stone's throw of average at just about every position group, but their bullpen looks tremendous and their starting rotation has the ability to be excellent depending on health and the contributions from Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, and/or Luke Weaver. The loss of Alex Reyes was a huge blow as only Reyes and outfielder Harrison Bader had real chances of making noise from the farm for the 2017 club. Still, there's the potential for an excellent defensive infield and plenty of runs to win lots of games.

Pittsburgh is stuck in purgatory as they await the ascension of the likes of Josh Bell, Tyler Glasnow, and Austin Meadows, core players yet to establish themselves as such in the Majors. There's plenty of talent on board to have a great team, but the ceiling is low in the infield -- particularly with Jung Ho Kang's status up in the air -- and while the addition of Daniel Hudson was a real plus, the loss of Mark Melancon was a real minus, too.

The chasm between the top three teams in the division and the bottom two remains as wide as ever. I'd feel bad for Joey Votto if he wasn't making $225M. The Reds have Votto, a handful of average regulars, and a pile of scrubs. That's no way to win. To make matters worse, the farm is wobbly with some upside, not exactly the dream of a team buried at the bottom of the standings.

The Brewers have an enviable farm and an evaporated salary sheet, but that's because they're awful. And they're going to be especially awful in 2017, a statement that will be even more true if they ship out Ryan Braun. The core of a contender is here, but it's primarily living in the mid-minors, waiting for 2019 or so.

National League East
New York (97-65)
Washington (90-72)
Miami (81-81)
Philadelphia (76-86)
Atlanta (72-90)

The Mets pitching is the type that front offices dream about when trying to build a contender. With Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, and Robert Gsellmann, they'll have baseball's finest top-four in 2017. Between Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Seth Lugo, they'll have baseball's best fifth starter and depth arm. The bullpen of Familia-Reed-Robles-Salas-Blevins will be enough and will be strengthened by a deadline reinforcement. The position players are more confusing with the likes of d'Arnaud and Conforto offering tantalizing ceilings, Duda, Granderson, Walker, and Cabrera playing average ball, Cespedes offering star power, and third base looking potentially bad. My expectation at third? It's manned by Asdrubal Cabrera...once Amed Rosario gets promoted at the end of April. Rosario, Cespedes, and elite pitching lead the way.

The Nationals are nothing to slough at. On paper, they look a bit better than the Mets. In real life? Left field and first base are both dreadful at this point, and despite the front office's best efforts, the bullpen holes weren't plugged. The Nats emptied out the farm to get Adam Eaton, a completely defensible move that has them on the outside looking in for the midsummer trade market. They're going to be good, but this team could slide.

The Marlins continue to occupy the middle space between the division's elite squads and its bottomfeeders. The story is the same as it always is: elite outfield, solid infield, and an awful rotation. The rotation would be poor even with Jose Fernandez, but following his tragic death, it needs an overhaul. The farm remains rather poor.

The future isn't quite now in Philadelphia but it's getting closer and doing so quickly. J.P. Crawford, Odubel Herrera, Jorge Alfaro, Maikel Franco, and Nick Williams figure to form the next position player core in Philly and they'll all play in the Majors this year. Similarly, the next contending rotation figures to be anchored by Vincent Velasquez, Aaron Nola, and Jerad Eickhoff, all of whom are present. The bullpen looks below average and the problems in left field and possibly first base don't look great. Still, there's a good bit to dream on here for Phillies fans and I'd expect notable progress in 2017.

In spite of their confounding deals for Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips, the future is also bright in Atlanta and that future is starting to arrive. Dansby Swanson is ready, Ozzie Albies and Sean Newcomb aren't far behind, and the cavalry is ready to start rolling in by late-2018. The rotation picked up some nice, flippable bridge arms that should make Atlanta a more attractive spot to free agents in subsequent winters as a below-average team instead of an awful one, and both Colon and Dickey figure to turn into useful prospects by late summer.

Wild Card Play-In Game
Toronto over Seattle

Wild Card Games
Detroit over Toronto
Washington over San Francisco

Division Series
Cleveland over Detroit
Boston over Houston
Chicago Cubs over Washington
New York Mets over Los Angeles

Championship Series
Cleveland over Boston
New York Mets over Chicago Cubs

World Series
New York Mets over Cleveland

I'm still a sucker for that Mets pitching. Apologies to Cleveland once again.

Awards

MVP
AL: OF Mookie Betts
NL: 3B Kris Bryant

Cy Young
AL: SP Corey Kluber
NL: SP Clayton Kershaw

Rookie of the Year
AL: OF Andrew Benintendi
NL: SS Dansby Swanson

Manager of the Year
AL: A.J. Hinch
NL: Terry Collins