I'm fresh off of attending the Bears-Lions game on November 19, 2017. While some folks watched that game and thought that the Bears still looked to be years away from competing, I saw a squad that is taking shape as a real contender ready for launch in 2018.
Why the disconnect?
There are a few reasons. One is recency bias. The Bears have stumbled twice in the last eight days, dropping back-to-back one-score home games to the Packers and Lions to turn a surprisingly relevant season into a surefire 5-11/6-10 campaign, as expected. Go back another week, however, and the Bears were looking tough and promising.
Two, the Bears current roster is below-average (at best), lacking the playmakers necessary to succeed in the NFL and the premium prospects required for reaching the upper echelon. Or so it appears.
Three, most folks spend far less time looking at the Bears' salary cap situation than I do. My familiarity with it gives me additional confidence, so let's get to explaining said confidence.
Perhaps most importantly: many of the club's veteran, bloated salaries belong substantially to players who will be cut in the offseason, leaving behind minimal salary cap hits. In one sense, this is bad: the most expensive players should be the best players, not the worst players. Yes, that's true. But when expensive players can be jettisoned for minimal cost, that's a good thing. Here's a list of easily-replaceable players at a fraction of their cost (you may want to shield your eyes now):
- WR Markus Wheaton
- 2018 Cap: $5.75M
- 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.75M
- Easily Cut Because...Wheaton has one catch for nine yards. All season.
- CB Marcus Cooper
- 2018 Cap: $5.5M
- 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $1M
- Easily Cut Because...Cooper's awful play has him out of the CB rotation.
- ILB Jerrell Freeman
- 2018 Cap: $4M
- 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.5M
- Easily Cut Because...Freeman has now been suspended for PEDs and injured twice each in two years. The Bears may even be able to get out from his dead money entirely as a result.
- OLB Pernell McPhee
- 2018 Cap: $8.075M
- 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $1M
- Easily Cut Because...McPhee's body hasn't recovered from a rash of knee injuries, negating his effectiveness.
- TE Dion Sims
- 2018 Cap: $6.333M
- 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.667M
- Easily Cut Because...Sims made no impact in the passing game and $6M+ for a blocking tight end is ludicrous. Plus, he's been out with an injury so he's not gaining report with Trubisky.
- S Quintin Demps
- 2018 Cap: $4.333M
- 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.667M
- Easily Cut Because...It's not an easy cut, per se, but it's an easier choice given the emergence of Amos and Jackson combined with the cheap depth options behind them.
- QB Mike Glennon
- 2018 Cap: $16M
- 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $4.5M (or $2M, perhaps)
- Easily Cut Because...Come on now.
There are other cut candidates -- Willie Young ($5.4M cap number or $0.9M dead) may need to prove he's fully healthy after tearing his triceps, Quintin Demps ($4.333M or $0.667M dead) will have a tough time wresting his starting job back from Adrian Amos, Bobby Massie ($6.1M or $0.5M dead) remains the weak link on the offensive line, and Eric Kush ($1.4M or $0 dead) figures to lose the backup guard spot to 2017 draftee Jordan Morgan -- but the seven above provide obvious, substantial relief against the salary cap, leaving just $9.084M behind (thanks Glennon).
The remaining players counting more than $1M against the cap in 2018:
- DE Akiem Hicks ($9.6M)
- G Kyle Long ($8.825M)
- G Josh Sitton ($8.667M)
- ILB Danny Trevathan ($7.15M)
- QB Mitch Trubisky ($6.598M)
- RT Bobby Massie ($6.1M)
- LT Charles Leno ($5.9M)
- OLB Willie Young ($5.4M)
- WR Kevin White ($5.27M)
- OLB Leonard Floyd ($4.304M)
- DT Eddie Goldman ($1.809M)
- G Eric Kush ($1.4M)
- TE Adam Shaheen ($1.343M)
- C Cody Whitehair ($1.152M)
That's...actually pretty darn good. The sub-$1M group is littered with contributors ranging from full-time starters like Amos, Nick Kwiatkoski, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, and Jordan Howard to part-time contributors like Crevon LeBlanc and Jonathan Bullard. Deiondre' Hall and Roy Robertson-Harris have struggled with injuries, but they carry intrigue nevertheless. Only C Hroniss Grasu has been a true bust who figures to hit the waiver wire in the coming months.
GM Ryan Pace finds himself needing to rebuild the cornerback position this offseason as his top two cover men -- Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller -- hit free agency in addition to Cooper following his inevitable release. Dollars will need to be used at that position. That was also true last year when Pace struck out on AJ Bouye in the spring and watched Bouye instead head to Jacksonville to form the NFL's best cornerback group alongside Jalen Ramsey. He can't miss again this year.
Let's look at the roster and its needs as we determine where the Bears are likely to spend their resources in the springtime.
Quarterback
2018 Players: Mitch Trubisky ($6.598M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 3
Analysis: This is Trubisky's bus to drive. Yes, the Bears need a backup here. Whether that's a mid-round pick or a veteran doesn't matter much.
Running Back
2018 Players: Jordan Howard ($0.692M), Tarik Cohen ($0.714M), Taquan Mizzell ($0.555M), Michael Burton ($0.705M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: The Bears will grab someone in the Benny Cunningham mold (perhaps the actual Benny Cunningham?), but like QB, this position rests on the shoulders of the young draftees.
Wide Receiver
2018 Players: Kevin White ($5.27M)
Needed Starters/Players: 2/4
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: Duh. The Bears need lots of bodies here, most of whom will be new. No listed: RFA Cameron Meredith, who will be retained on a yet-unknown (likely) one-year deal. Dontrelle Inman may also return -- Trubisky seems to like him -- and Kendall Wright could come back on another short deal. There are plenty of options here.
Tight End
2018 Players: Adam Shaheen ($1.343M), Daniel Brown ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/2
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: This, of course, assumes that Sims gets the boot. If he's back, the position probably looks more or less the same moving forward. It's Shaheen's job to grab and run with it.
Offensive Tackle
2018 Players: Charles Leno ($5.9M), Bobby Massie ($6.1M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 7
Analysis: I'm still bummed that Ryan Pace lost his mind and paid Leno like he is a starting-caliber tackle. He's probably about the 28th best left tackle at any given time. It's worth seeing if he continues to improve, but the Bears would be wise to plan for his replacement. The mediocre Massie will be in the final year of his deal as well.
Offensive Guard
2018 Players: Josh Sitton ($8.667M), Kyle Long ($8.825M), Eric Kush ($1.4M), Jordan Morgan ($0.629M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: The team's best position group. It's Sitton's walk year, but his replacement can be found later and possibly even in-house if Morgan develops.
Center
2018 Players: Cody Whitehair ($1.152M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: Whitehair has struggled some this year, but on the whole, he still looks like a core piece moving ahead.
Nose Tackle
2018 Players: Eddie Goldman ($1.809M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Goldman has stayed healthy and though his play has been more "good" than "great," he still looks like a keeper.
Defensive End
2018 Players: Akiem Hicks ($9.6M), Jonathan Bullard ($0.925M), Roy Robertson-Harris ($0.557M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/1
Level of Need: 5
Analysis: The Bears would love to add another rotation player here, but they'd love even more for Bullard to emerge in December as a likely starter for next year's squad. If that happens, expect them to consider bringing back Mitch Unrein on another cheap deal.
Inside Linebacker
2018 Players: Danny Trevathan ($7.15M), Nick Kwiatkoski ($0.774M), Jonathan Anderson ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/1
Level of Need: 5
Analysis: Given Trevathan's injury history and Kwiatkoski's solid but unspectacular play, the club would be best served grabbing another starting-caliber ILB. That could very well be Jerrell Freeman back on a minimum-salary deal.
Outside Linebacker
2018 Players: Leonard Floyd ($4.304M), Willie Young ($5.4M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/3
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: 3-4 OLBs have to get into the backfield. Floyd and Young both come with upside (much more for Floyd) and injury histories. The Bears need to find another viable rusher to make the defense click.
Cornerback
2018 Players: Crevon LeBlanc ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 3/5
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I don't think that LeBlanc can hold the position group together all by himself. Bryce Callahan likely comes back as an RFA.
Safety
2018 Players: Adrian Amos ($0.763M), Eddie Jackson ($0.721M), Deon Bush ($0.762M), DeAndre Houston-Carson ($0.63M), Deiondre' Hall ($0.758M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: After so many years of desperately needing to find a safety, the Bears don't need one anymore. There's no way each of these six makes the final roster next year. The most likely outcomes? Either (i) Demps gets cut, or (ii) Houston-Carson gets cut.
Specialists
2018 Players: None
Needed Starters/Players: 3/3
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I hope/suspect that the front office will keep Pat O'Donnell around -- he has acquitted himself nicely on the whole during his team in the league thus far. The kicking job should be up for grabs. No comment re long snappers.
Assuming that the above moves are made -- Wheaton, Cooper, Freeman, McPhee, Sims, and Glennon are cut while everyone else above sticks around -- the Bears would have $9.626M in dead money (their $8.417M of dead cap money plus $1.209M from those released last year). Not an enviable total but not a brutal amount by any stretch. The 31 players listed above account for approximately $88.926M of cap space.
The Bears are projected to have the sixth-worst record in the league (5-11) but lose every tiebreaker with other 5-win teams, so they should pick ninth. They own all of their own picks except for their third-round choice and they also own Arizona's fourth-round pick. Arizona is projected to have the 13th-worst record in the league. Accordingly, the Bears are expected to own picks 9, 41, 116, 120, 153, 193, and 227 (though 227 may head to San Diego thanks to the Inman trade). Last year, players chosen in those spots had combined cap numbers of about $7.6M. It's possible and even probable that Pace will trade down and add picks as he has in recent years, but adding a non-first round pick to the tally barely touches the cap at all.
Once we add the draft holds to the guaranteed hits above, we have a total spend of $96.526M with 13 spots to go. At present, the Bears are projected to have an adjusted cap of approximately $175.302M next year, yielding $78.776M of cap space entering free agency. Yowzers!
The offense would have huge needs at wide receiver and tight end while the defense would need a gaggle of new cornerbacks and a handful of linebackers. And some of that space would be used on extensions for the likes of Goldman and Amos. Still, there's lots of money to go around, so here are the proposed free agent deals and draft picks.
Free Agency
Quarterback
2018 Players: Mitch Trubisky ($6.598M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 3
Analysis: This is Trubisky's bus to drive. Yes, the Bears need a backup here. Whether that's a mid-round pick or a veteran doesn't matter much.
Running Back
2018 Players: Jordan Howard ($0.692M), Tarik Cohen ($0.714M), Taquan Mizzell ($0.555M), Michael Burton ($0.705M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: The Bears will grab someone in the Benny Cunningham mold (perhaps the actual Benny Cunningham?), but like QB, this position rests on the shoulders of the young draftees.
Wide Receiver
2018 Players: Kevin White ($5.27M)
Needed Starters/Players: 2/4
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: Duh. The Bears need lots of bodies here, most of whom will be new. No listed: RFA Cameron Meredith, who will be retained on a yet-unknown (likely) one-year deal. Dontrelle Inman may also return -- Trubisky seems to like him -- and Kendall Wright could come back on another short deal. There are plenty of options here.
Tight End
2018 Players: Adam Shaheen ($1.343M), Daniel Brown ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/2
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: This, of course, assumes that Sims gets the boot. If he's back, the position probably looks more or less the same moving forward. It's Shaheen's job to grab and run with it.
Offensive Tackle
2018 Players: Charles Leno ($5.9M), Bobby Massie ($6.1M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 7
Analysis: I'm still bummed that Ryan Pace lost his mind and paid Leno like he is a starting-caliber tackle. He's probably about the 28th best left tackle at any given time. It's worth seeing if he continues to improve, but the Bears would be wise to plan for his replacement. The mediocre Massie will be in the final year of his deal as well.
Offensive Guard
2018 Players: Josh Sitton ($8.667M), Kyle Long ($8.825M), Eric Kush ($1.4M), Jordan Morgan ($0.629M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: The team's best position group. It's Sitton's walk year, but his replacement can be found later and possibly even in-house if Morgan develops.
Center
2018 Players: Cody Whitehair ($1.152M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: Whitehair has struggled some this year, but on the whole, he still looks like a core piece moving ahead.
Nose Tackle
2018 Players: Eddie Goldman ($1.809M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Goldman has stayed healthy and though his play has been more "good" than "great," he still looks like a keeper.
Defensive End
2018 Players: Akiem Hicks ($9.6M), Jonathan Bullard ($0.925M), Roy Robertson-Harris ($0.557M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/1
Level of Need: 5
Analysis: The Bears would love to add another rotation player here, but they'd love even more for Bullard to emerge in December as a likely starter for next year's squad. If that happens, expect them to consider bringing back Mitch Unrein on another cheap deal.
Inside Linebacker
2018 Players: Danny Trevathan ($7.15M), Nick Kwiatkoski ($0.774M), Jonathan Anderson ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/1
Level of Need: 5
Analysis: Given Trevathan's injury history and Kwiatkoski's solid but unspectacular play, the club would be best served grabbing another starting-caliber ILB. That could very well be Jerrell Freeman back on a minimum-salary deal.
Outside Linebacker
2018 Players: Leonard Floyd ($4.304M), Willie Young ($5.4M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/3
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: 3-4 OLBs have to get into the backfield. Floyd and Young both come with upside (much more for Floyd) and injury histories. The Bears need to find another viable rusher to make the defense click.
Cornerback
2018 Players: Crevon LeBlanc ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 3/5
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I don't think that LeBlanc can hold the position group together all by himself. Bryce Callahan likely comes back as an RFA.
Safety
2018 Players: Adrian Amos ($0.763M), Eddie Jackson ($0.721M), Deon Bush ($0.762M), DeAndre Houston-Carson ($0.63M), Deiondre' Hall ($0.758M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: After so many years of desperately needing to find a safety, the Bears don't need one anymore. There's no way each of these six makes the final roster next year. The most likely outcomes? Either (i) Demps gets cut, or (ii) Houston-Carson gets cut.
Specialists
2018 Players: None
Needed Starters/Players: 3/3
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I hope/suspect that the front office will keep Pat O'Donnell around -- he has acquitted himself nicely on the whole during his team in the league thus far. The kicking job should be up for grabs. No comment re long snappers.
Assuming that the above moves are made -- Wheaton, Cooper, Freeman, McPhee, Sims, and Glennon are cut while everyone else above sticks around -- the Bears would have $9.626M in dead money (their $8.417M of dead cap money plus $1.209M from those released last year). Not an enviable total but not a brutal amount by any stretch. The 31 players listed above account for approximately $88.926M of cap space.
The Bears are projected to have the sixth-worst record in the league (5-11) but lose every tiebreaker with other 5-win teams, so they should pick ninth. They own all of their own picks except for their third-round choice and they also own Arizona's fourth-round pick. Arizona is projected to have the 13th-worst record in the league. Accordingly, the Bears are expected to own picks 9, 41, 116, 120, 153, 193, and 227 (though 227 may head to San Diego thanks to the Inman trade). Last year, players chosen in those spots had combined cap numbers of about $7.6M. It's possible and even probable that Pace will trade down and add picks as he has in recent years, but adding a non-first round pick to the tally barely touches the cap at all.
Once we add the draft holds to the guaranteed hits above, we have a total spend of $96.526M with 13 spots to go. At present, the Bears are projected to have an adjusted cap of approximately $175.302M next year, yielding $78.776M of cap space entering free agency. Yowzers!
The offense would have huge needs at wide receiver and tight end while the defense would need a gaggle of new cornerbacks and a handful of linebackers. And some of that space would be used on extensions for the likes of Goldman and Amos. Still, there's lots of money to go around, so here are the proposed free agent deals and draft picks.
Free Agency
- Sign WR Cam Meredith to a one-year, $3M deal (approximate second round tender)
- Sign CB Bryce Callahan to a one-year, $2M deal (approximate original round tender)
- Sign QB Chad Henne to a one-year, $3.5M deal
- Sign P Pat O'Donnell to a three-year, $9M deal
- Sign WR Dontrelle Inman to a two-year, $6M deal
- Sign WR Kendall Wright to a one-year, $2M deal
- Sign OLB Lamarr Houston to a one-year, $2M deal
- Sign CB Trumaine Johnson to a five-year, $80M deal
- Sign CB Prince Amukamara to a three-year, $27M deal
- Sign ILB Demario Davis to a four-year, $34M deal
I'd love to nab somebody significant for the receiver group like Allen Robinson or Jarvis Landry, but such an expenditure may not be wise with limited snaps to go around and so many solid targets with the hopeful returns of Meredith and White. The most important additions appear to be the last three.
That octet would use up approximately $50M in cap space, just over half of the club's allotment. Dang.
NFL Draft
Pick #9: OLB Arden Key, LSU
----- Key is violent, fast, and has incredible bend in his upper half. He probably won't make it to #9, but if he does, the Bears would be thrilled.
Pick #41: WR Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame
----- If St. Brown actually falls this far on draft day (as is currently projected), the Bears will be seriously hard-pressed to pass. He's got an elite receiver's body with excellent flexibility. A year ago at this time, his name was being bandied about with the likes of A.J. Green and Julio Jones. The only thing that changed? Brandon Wimbush replaced DeShone Kizer. St. Brown looks like this year's Alshon Jeffery to me, without the off-field murmurs, as a receiver who falls in a big way without much sense. He'd be a huge addition.
Pick #116: TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State
----- Gesicki's leaping ability and hands are tremendous. His route running isn't as developed as you'd like and his blocking is generally poor. That's a quality mid-round prospect.
Pick #120: OLB Chad Thomas, Miami
----- Thomas doesn't look like an every-down monster in the NFL, but he comes with an elite pedigree (5-star recruit) and impressive tape as a senior. Given his larger body (265 lbs.), it's easy to envision him playing with his hand in the dirt in obvious pass rushing situations in the NFL, a role he appears well-suited to play.
Pick #153: CB Holton Hill, Texas
----- Hill comes with the big body that so many teams covet. He doesn't move as fluidly as the elite corners in the game, but he'd be a strong depth addition to the team.
Pick #193: NT Michael Hill, Ohio State
----- It's not clear why Hill was suspended multiple times during his career at Ohio State. It is clear that he is massive at 320 pounds and that he occasionally commands double-teams in college. With some impressive first-step quickness and an ability to get into the backfield, he could be a nice depth piece behind Goldman.
Pick #193: NT Michael Hill, Ohio State
----- It's not clear why Hill was suspended multiple times during his career at Ohio State. It is clear that he is massive at 320 pounds and that he occasionally commands double-teams in college. With some impressive first-step quickness and an ability to get into the backfield, he could be a nice depth piece behind Goldman.
Pick #227: K Eddy Pineiro, Florida
----- Pineiro has bizarre mechanics and, incredibly, he didn't plan to kick in college, only taking it up again when his junior college needed a man for the job. I have questions about his ability to kick accurately over time, but the leg strength is impressive, as is his 78% touchback percentage. He'd be a boon to the roster.
----- Pineiro has bizarre mechanics and, incredibly, he didn't plan to kick in college, only taking it up again when his junior college needed a man for the job. I have questions about his ability to kick accurately over time, but the leg strength is impressive, as is his 78% touchback percentage. He'd be a boon to the roster.
53-Man Roster
QB (2): Trubisky, Henne
RB (5): Howard, Cohen, Mizzell, Burton, ?????
WR (5): White, Meredith, Inman, Wright, St. Brown
TE (4): Shaheen, Gesicki, Brown, ?????
OT (3): Leno, Massie, ?????
OG/C (5): Sitton, Long, Whitehair, Kush, Morgan
DT (2): Goldman, Hill
DE (4): Hicks, Bullard, Robertson-Harris, ?????
ILB (4): Trevathan, Davis, Kwiatkoski, Anderson
OLB (5): Floyd, Young, Houston, Key, Thomas
CB (6): Johnson, Amukamara, Callahan, LeBlanc, Hill, ?????
S (5): Amos, Jackson, Bush, Houston-Carson, Hall
SP (3): O'Donnell (P), Pineiro (K), ????? (LS)
So there we go. That's a team with plenty of potential, but also one that needs to stay healthy and get notable second-year jumps from Trubisky, Shaheen, and Co. in addition to much-needed third-year jumps from Floyd (to elite status) and Bullard (to regular status).
TE (4): Shaheen, Gesicki, Brown, ?????
OT (3): Leno, Massie, ?????
OG/C (5): Sitton, Long, Whitehair, Kush, Morgan
DT (2): Goldman, Hill
DE (4): Hicks, Bullard, Robertson-Harris, ?????
ILB (4): Trevathan, Davis, Kwiatkoski, Anderson
OLB (5): Floyd, Young, Houston, Key, Thomas
CB (6): Johnson, Amukamara, Callahan, LeBlanc, Hill, ?????
S (5): Amos, Jackson, Bush, Houston-Carson, Hall
SP (3): O'Donnell (P), Pineiro (K), ????? (LS)
So there we go. That's a team with plenty of potential, but also one that needs to stay healthy and get notable second-year jumps from Trubisky, Shaheen, and Co. in addition to much-needed third-year jumps from Floyd (to elite status) and Bullard (to regular status).
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