But that's just the thing: football is a team sport, not an individual one. Michigan has an outstanding defensive front seven, a stable of strong running backs, and an offensive line that can run block against any team in the country. Alas, they're a disaster at quarterback with a leaky secondary. Result? 8-4 with a trio of multi-score losses.
Penn State has endured many seasons like that where a particular position group proved to be the downfall of the team as a whole.
Next year? Next year there doesn't appear to be such a position group. Here's a group-by-group look at next year's team with their 2018 class year listed and their Rivals recruiting ranking in parentheses with new starters in italics:
Quarterback
Projected Starter: RS SR Trace McSorley (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Tommy Stevens (★★★), RS FR Sean Clifford (★★★★), RS SO Jake Zembiec (★★★★)
Recruits: Will Levis (★★★)
Losses: None
McSorley was second-team All-Big Ten in 2017 after being second-team All-Big Ten in 2016. He'll have a good shot of staying at that level in 2018. Stevens has played plenty and looks like a larger, slower version of McSorley. Notably, Clifford beat out Zembiec on this year's depth chart and held the #3 job all season.
Rating: ★★★★★
Running Back
Projected Starter: JR Miles Sanders (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Andre Robinson (★★★), RS SR Mark Allen (★★), RS FR Journey Brown (★★★)
Recruits: Ricky Slade (★★★★)
Losses: Saquon Barkley
Sanders will get his time to shine, and given what he's shown so far and his pedigree as the top back in his high school class, he should do so. Robinson and Allen are capable backups and Brown should carve out a complementary role in his time, but Slade is the real future here. I suspect that the coaching staff will attempt to redshirt him, but he may force his way onto the field.
Rating: ★★★★
Wide Receiver
Projected Starters: RS JR Juwan Johnson (★★★★), RS SR DeAndre Thompkins (★★★★), RS JR Irvin Charles (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Brandon Polk (★★★), RS SO Dae'lun Darien (★★★), RS FR K.J. Hamler (★★★★), RS FR Mac Hippenhammer (★★★), RS FR Mac Hippenhammer (★★★)
Recruits: Justin Shorter (★★★★), Daniel George (★★★★), Shaquon Anderson-Butts (★★★)
Losses: DaeSean Hamilton
The Nittany Lions lost Chris Godwin to the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but DaeSean Hamilton rediscovered his freshman year magic, producing a huge season. Next year, it'll be all about Juwan Johnson who emerged as a go-to target. Listed at 6-4, 226 pounds, Johnson will likely be off to the NFL after the 2018 season, but in his redshirt junior year, he'll pair with seasoned veteran DeAndre Thompkins to lead the way.
The two bits of intrigue here: which undersized youngster wins time in the slot (my bet is Polk first and then Hamler) and how long can the coaches keep Shorter, the 6-3, 220-pound consensus top-50 overall player, on the bench? If Johnson and Thompkins are healthy, it'll be for a while. But if there's an injury, expect McSorley to target Shorter with regularity.
Rating: ★★★★
Tight End
Projected Starters: RS JR Jonathan Holland (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Nick Bowers (★★★), RS SO Danny Dalton (★★★)
Recruits: Patrick Freiermuth (★★★★), Zack Kuntz (★★★★)
Losses: Mike Gesicki, Tom Pancoast
It's almost like the recruiting staff thought Gesicki was going to be around forever. Alas, eligibility rules being what they are, Gesicki is off to the NFL after a decorated career in blue and white, leaving behind an uncertain position group.
I have plenty of hope for Holland after he forced his way into a role in 2017, but the real hope here lies with Freiermuth and Kuntz. One of them will likely earn some playing time in 2018: the smart money is on the bulldozing Freiermuth. Nevertheless, while the position is healthy going forward, 2018 could be lean.
Rating: ★★★
Offensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS JR Ryan Bates (★★★★), RS SO Will Fries (★★★★)
Reserves: RS SO Alex Gellerstedt (★★★), RS SR Chasz Wright (★★★), RS JR Sterling Jenkins (★★★), RS FR Des Holmes (★★★), RS FR C.J. Thorpe (★★★★)
Recruits: Nana Asiedu (★★★★), Antwan Reed (★★★★) Bryce Effner (★★★)
Losses: Andrew Nelson
Bates is the best lineman on the team and the offense's struggles can be tied to the moment he left the Ohio State game with an injury. Fries is nowhere near Bates' level, but on the right side, he's an asset.
The depth, however, remains a big concern. The only other tackles listed on the depth chart in 2017 were Wright, who struggled mightily, and Gellerstedt, who didn't play any meaningful snaps. Jenkins has been a major bust after being an Under Armour All-American and while Thorpe, Reed, and particularly Asiedu all look like plausible future starters, injuries have created a major gap in the depth chart. Here's hoping for better health in 2018.
Rating: ★★★★
Interior Offensive Line
Projected Starters: RS JR Steven Gonzalez (★★★), RS SO Michal Menet (★★★★), JR Connor McGovern (center) (★★★★)
Reserves: RS FR Mike Miranda (★★★), RS FR Robbie Martin (★★★)
Recruits: Juice Scruggs (center) (★★★★)
Losses: Brendan Mahon
If you thought the tackle group was thin, just wait until you see the guards. McGovern has been a stud from day one at center, but the guard positions are far less certain.
At various times in the past year, it seemed as though Menet or Miranda would force his way into the starting lineup, but Mahon and Gonzalez managed to hold them off. Given some run blocking struggles during Big Ten play, this is none too encouraging.
Rating: ★★★
Defensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS JR Kevin Givens (★★★), RS JR Robert Windsor (★★★)
Reserves: RS SO Ellison Jordan (★★★), RS SO Antonio Shelton (★★★), RS FR Cory Bolds (★★★), RS FR Fred Hansard (★★★★)
Recruits: Aeneas Hawkins (★★★★), PJ Mustipher (★★★★)
Losses: Parker Cothren, Curtis Cothran
Defensive tackle was a true position of strength at Penn State for nearly a decade, but that hasn't been true for the past two seasons and 2018 doesn't appear to be in line to break that streak. Givens flashed plenty in 2016, then struggled to find playing time this year.
There is, however, one way in which that could be true: if top 2017 recruit Hansard bursts out of nowhere to become an every-down caliber player. Without that, it's going to be another thin year inside before the prized 2018 recruits can begin to put their stamp on the system. Even then, Hawkins probably needs to add 30 pounds before he can be in line for a starting gig, so 2020 may be the target for this position group. Gulp.
Rating: ★★★
Defensive End
Projected Starters: RS SR Torrence Brown (★★★), RS JR Ryan Buchholz (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Shareef Miller (★★★), RS SO Shane Simmons (★★★★), SO Yetur Gross-Matos (★★★★), RS SO Shaka Toney (★★★), RS SO Daniel Joseph (★★★), RS FR Damion Barber (★★★)
Recruits: Judge Culpepper (★★★★)
Losses: None
Whereas defensive tackle is a traditionally strong position that has fallen on hard times, defensive end has been and remains a spot of strength. Unfortunate injuries to Brown and Buchholz have given Miller, Simmons, Toney, and Gross-Matos chances to get on the field. Gross-Matos in particular earned himself a significant look down the stretch. Of course, all eyes remain on the recruiting trail where prized former commit Micah Parsons lingers...
Even without Parsons in tow, this group looks strong now and moving forward.
Rating: ★★★★
Linebacker
Projected Starters: RS SR Koa Farmer (★★★★), SR Manny Bowen (★★★★), RS FR Ellis Brooks (★★★★)
Reserves: JR Cam Brown (★★★), RS JR Jarvis Miller (★★★), SR Jake Cooper (★★★), RS FR Brelin Faison-Walden (★★★★), RS FR Brailyn Franklin (★★★)
Recruits: Jesse Luketa (★★★★), Nick Tarburton (★★★★), Charlie Katshir (★★★)
Losses: Jason Cabinda, Brandon Smith
Yikes. Farmer was recruited as a safety/linebacker hybrid, but his bulked-up body has been too slow to play strong pass coverage. Bowen has been good when on the field...but he was mysteriously suspended in mid-November and missed multiple games for it after being suspended late in 2016 as well. It'll be tough to count on him going forward. Brown handled himself well in a somewhat limited run, though he's undersized for defending the run.
Accordingly, Penn State needs a lot to break right in 2018 to have a strong linebacking group. The best bets for such a result: an explosion from Brooks and a highly successful redshirt year from either Faison-Walden or Fanklin. Here's hoping. This rating reflects the fact that there is a lot of volatility here.
Rating: ★★
Cornerback
Projected Starters: RS SR Amani Oruwariye (★★★), RS JR John Reid (★★★★)
Reserves: SO Lamont Wade (★★★★★), SO Tariq Castro-Fields (★★★★), RS SO Zech McPhearson (★★★), RS FR Donovan Johnson (★★★★), RS FR DJ Brown (★★★)
Recruits: Jordan Miner (★★★★), Trent Gordon (★★★★)
Losses: Grant Haley, Christian Campbell
The losses here are notable as Haley enjoyed a sparkling career at Penn State and Campbell emerged as an every-down player as a senior.
However, this position more than any other has loaded up on talent over the years and is reaping those rewards. Even if Reid can't return from his spring knee injury, this group is deep and extremely strong. If Reid comes back at 90% of his 2016 production, the secondary will remain the defense's strength in 2018.
Rating: ★★★★
Safety
Projected Starters: RS SR Nick Scott (★★★), RS JR Ayron Monroe (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Garrett Taylor (★★★★), RS JR Johnny Petrishen (★★★), RS FR Jonathan Sutherland (★★★★)
Recruits:
Losses: Marcus Allen, Troy Apke
Marcus Allen is a huge loss, a consistent All-Big Ten performer as a four-year starter. Those are tough to find. But the Nittany Lions are trying to find another Allen, tossing significant resources at the back of the secondary in recent years. A couple of program losses have created a gap on the depth chart that Sutherland will attempt to fill.
Rating: ★★★
Specialists
Projected Starters: RS SO Alex Barbir (★★★), JR Blake Gillikin (punter) (★★★)
Reserves: None
Recruits: Jake Pinegar (★★)
Losses: Tyler Davis (kicker)
It's tough to call this position a rousing success not knowing how Barbir will kick for accuracy, but Gillikin has been a godsend since arriving two years ago and should continue his All-Big Ten ways into the future. He'd get five stars, but until Barbir kicks in a game, this group remains limited.
Rating: ★★★★
Coaching
Projected Starters: James Franklin (head), Brent Pry (defense), ????? (offense)
Reserves: None
Recruits: None
Losses: Joe Moorhead
Franklin has recruited like a superhero, and it's tough to argue with his results following September 2016's beatdown at the Big House: a 19-3 record with a three-point loss at USC, a one-point loss at Ohio State, a three-point loss at Michigan State, and a Big Ten championship. If the Nitts win their bowl game, it'll make for a second straight top-10 finish. Not bad at all!
Alas, Franklin's gameday coaching still leaves something to be desired, and he'll almost certainly head into 2018 without offensive guru Joe Moorhead who figures to find a tasty head coaching opportunity in the coming days (edit: he's off to Starkville to replace Dan Mullen - awesome fit for Joe!). Congratulations to Moorhead for getting his shot and thanks to him for a couple of thrilling years!
It sounds like Ricky Rahne or Andrew Breiner will likely replace Moorhead. Here's hoping for continuing innovation in that spot.
Rating: ★★★
In the aggregate, next year's team looks very strong. Yes, they'll miss the star power of Barkley, Allen, and Gesicki as well as the strong veteran presences of Mahon, Cabinda, and Haley, but the talent on the roster is on the upswing. In a team game, that's what really matters. Returning 4/5 of the offensive line, a budding elite receiver, an elite punter, a deep and talented defensive end rotation, a strong secondary, and, most importantly, a three-year starter at quarterback is a recipe for success.
Perhaps most importantly for the team as a whole, the schedule shapes up quite favorably to make a big run. Unlike 2017 where Penn State got stuck playing Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State in order, including the last two on the road, the 2018 schedule doesn't feature anything as daunting. Here it is:
Appalachian State
@ Pittsburgh
Kent State
@ Illinois
Ohio State
BYE
Michigan State
@ Indiana
Iowa
@ Michigan
Wisconsin
@ Rutgers
Maryland
Pitt is generally dicey as a road rivalry game, especially given their penchant for upsetting top-five teams, though Penn State enjoys a marked talent advantage and should have plenty of home fans.
Getting Ohio State at home after back-to-back gimmes and before the Bye is ideal.
Getting Michigan State after the Bye is great.
Only the Iowa/@ Michigan/Wisconsin portion of the schedule shapes up poorly, and even then, two of those three are at home. Not bad. It's rare to have four of a team's five toughest games at home, but that's just what Penn State has with Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin all visiting Happy Valley.
In order to win the Big Ten, Penn State will have to (1) win its home games, even the tough ones, or (2) find a way to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Neither of those items will be easy to check off of the to-do list, but that's what it takes to win a championship. So be it.
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