Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Penn State's 2018 Recruiting Class is Like None I've Ever Seen

There's nothing particularly profound to say here: James Franklin just signed one of the best classes in school history.

To say that Penn State hit a lull in recruiting in the final years under Joe Paterno would be a significant understatement. Here is the team's composite ranking according to 247sports since the star-studded 2006 class, covering Paterno's final five classes (before the gutted 2012 class):

2007: 39th (14 recruits, 0 ★, 4 ★, 9 )
2008: 40th (15 recruits, 0 ★, 5 ★, 9 )
2009: 19th (24 recruits, 0 ★, 7 ★, 16 )
2010: 13th (18 recruits, 0 ★, 13 ★, 5 )
2011: 31st (16 recruits, 0 ★, 5 ★, 10 )

Those classes aren't bad, but they're basically equivalent to what Michigan State did over the same span of time. That's not meant to be disrespectful to Sparty at all: Mark Dantonio built a juggernaut during that time and he's one of college football's elites in my mind. Recruiting doesn't win games. Nevertheless, Penn State would be expected to enjoy substantially more recruiting success.

The 2012 class was decimated by the sanctions, though Bill O'Brien incredibly led the program through that difficult time to produce OK results.

2012: 47th (20 recruits, 0 ★, 3 ★, 16 )

The on-field results with those players were as expected: after the veteran-laden 2009 squad turned in their second-straight 11-2 season, the 2010-15 Nitts were...mediocre:

2010: 7-6
2011: 9-4
2012: 8-4
2013: 7-5
2014: 7-6
2015: 7-6

Obviously the sanctions played a role in those results, but Penn State going six years without a 10-win season and going just 45-31 in the aggregate isn't too terribly impressive.

O'Brien's sole recruiting cycle didn't yield a banner class, but he kept enough of the Class of 2013 together to cobble together a solid group:

2013: 33rd (16 recruits, 1 ★, 3 ★, 11 )

Incredibly, the top eight players in that class by Rivals -- Christian Hackenberg, Adam Breneman, Garrett Sickels, Brendan Mahon, DaeSean Hamilton, Andrew Nelson, Brandon Bell, and Curtis Cothran -- all enjoyed multiple years of starting in college with a handful spending time in the NFL, too. That's rare in recruiting.

Regardless, this post both is and isn't about the Paterno/O'Brien classes. It's primarily about Franklin's incredible success on the recruiting trail. And that starts with his unholy, remarkable run in the month before signing day in 2014.

2014: 24th (25 recruits, 0 ★, 5 ★, 20 )

O'Brien had put together a solid class, but jumped for the NFL on January 2nd. Franklin was hired on January 11th. Of the 25-member class, nine commits joined the group after Franklin's hire. Nine. Included in that group: DE Torrence Brown, CB Christian Campbell, CB Amani Oruwariye, WR Saeed Blacknall, LB Koa Farmer, CB Grant Haley, and QB Trace McSorley. Now that's a good month. The O'Brien portion of the class produced relatively fewer impact players, but three pass catchers arrived -- TE Mike Gesicki and WRs Chris Godwin and De'Andre Thompkins -- that changed the fortunes of the Nittany offense.

Franklin's full recruiting classes, however, have been impactful across the board.

2015: 14th (25 recruits, 0 ★, 13 ★, 12 )
2016: 20th (20 recruits, 1 ★, 7 ★, 11 )
2017: 15th (22 recruits, 0 ★, 11 ★, 10 )

Unsurprisingly, the on-field results have followed with a pair of 10-win seasons and a returning roster/schedule for 2018 that should leave Nittany with a 9-win floor (if they lose @ Michigan and two of the following three: @ Pitt, Ohio State, and Michigan State) and a ceiling that is...higher than that.

The 2018 class figures to further fuel the renaissance in State College. All verbals except for three-star Shaquon Anderson-Butts have signed, and even if this class doesn't get another commitment -- Nittany is considered the favorite for top-100 OT Rasheed Walker and among the favorites for top-300 targets DE Jayson Oweh and legacy WR Solomon Enis -- it'll be the best class at Penn State...ever?

2018: 4th (22 recruits, 3 ★, 9 ★, 10 )

That overall ranking will drop to the 6-10 range once elite players fill out the ranks at Alabama, Clemson, and the like, but that's still an elite class. And here's the whole point of this post: the players that comprise the class are largely players targeted by those elite peer institutions. Here's the top five offers for each player in the Penn State class (using my own highly unofficial prestige rankings).
  • ★ DE/OLB Micah Parsons
    • Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Florida
  • ★ WR Justin Shorter (Shorter committed in Aug. '16)
    • Miami, Michigan, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Pitt
  • ★ RB Ricky Slade
    • Ohio State, Miami, Florida, Virginia Tech, Pitt
  • ★ OT Nana Asiedu
    • Clemson, Florida, Michigan, Georgia, LSU
  • ★ DT P.J. Mustipher
    • Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Michigan
  • ★ TE Zack Kuntz
    • Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, Michigan
  • ★ WR Jahan Dotson
    • Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Georgia, Notre Dame
  • ★ TE Pat Freiermuth (like Shorter, Freiermuth committed in Aug. '16)
    • Notre Dame, Maryland, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Rutgers
  • ★ C Juice Scruggs
    • Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Pitt
  • ★ OLB Jesse Luketa
    • Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Stanford, Pitt (and most of the Ivy League)
  • ★ WR Daniel George
    • Wisconsin, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Iowa, Maryland
  • ★ LB Nick Tarburton
    • Pitt, Michigan State, Maryland, Louisville, Syracuse
  • ★ CB Jordan Miner
    • Georgia, Florida, Auburn, Oregon, Wisconsin
  • ★ CB Trent Gordon
    • Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, Michigan
  • ★ DT Aeneas Hawkins
    • Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Miami, Georgia
  • ★ DE Judge Culpepper
    • Alabama, USC, Notre Dame, Georgia, Florida
  • ★ S Isaiah Humphries
    • Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Colorado
  • ★ LB Charlie Katshir
    • Pitt, West Virginia, Rutgers, Virginia, Indiana
  • ★ OT Bryce Effner
    • Syracuse, Minnesota, Duke, Missouri, Kansas State
  • ★ QB Will Levis
    • Florida State, Mississippi, North Carolina, Iowa, Syracuse (and most of the Ivy League)
  • ★ K Jake Pinegar
    • Indiana, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Western Illinois
There are a lot of huge names on that list. And here are the other players that remain unsigned (Anderson-Butts) or high-level targets:
  • ★★ DE Tyreke Smith
    • Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Georgia, Notre Dame
  • ★★★ OT Rasheed Walker
    • Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Florida, Michigan
  • ★★★ DE Jayson Oweh
    • Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida, Michigan
  • ★★★ WR Solomon Enis
    • USC, Oregon, Georgia, UCLA, Mississippi
  • ★ WR Shaquon Anderson-Butts
    • Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon, Nebraska, Pitt
According to the highly official crystal ball on 247, Nittany has no shot at Smith (Ohio State), but they're a lock for Enis (100%), a near-lock for Walker (94%) and a surprising late strong play for Oweh (83%). Anderson-Butts is unique in that he has been a hard commit for a year but didn't sign during the early signing period amid speculation he may look elsewhere, perhaps fueled in part by the monster commitments of Shorter, George, and Dotson and the likely impending addition of Enis. It's also possible the Isheem Young's legal troubles have pushed the coaching staff to ask Anderson-Butts to play safety instead of wide receiver. There's too much speculation here to know for sure.

Regardless of what happens with Walker, Oweh, Enis, and Anderson-Butts, Nittany's recruiting haul this year sets the team up for immense success into the next decade as the team transitions from McSorley to Stevens to Clifford at QB and as the coaching staff coalesces with a new group around James Franklin when coordinators leave for head coaching opportunities. It's a very exciting time for Nittany ball.

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