Last week, I wrote a post covering the likely scenarios for the Bears with the 8th overall pick, ranking them from most preferable (like drafting Charles Tillman and Lance Briggs in the same 2003 class) to least (like drafting Cedric Benson 4th overall).
Today, I'm doing something that is more fun for me: putting together the dream scenario for tomorrow night. It's rare that the Bears have been in such an obvious trade down situation, but that's where they find themselves tomorrow. The seven picks prior to Chicago's figure to be littered with quarterbacks, which means two things: first, quarterback-needy squads later in the draft figure to get restless, and second, the teams immediately ahead of the Bears figure to nab elite talents -- like Penn State RB Saquon Barkley, North Carolina State DE/OLB Bradley Chubb, and Notre Dame G Quenton Nelson -- later than they might in a draft that featured fewer upper-echelon quarterbacks. With that in mind, here's my dream scenario:
1. Cleveland: QB Josh Allen (Wyoming)
----- Allen is the top QB with the best chance of slipping in the draft. That's impossible if he goes #1.
2. New York Giants: QB Sam Darnold (USC)
----- Another QB.
3. New York Jets: QB Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma)
----- Teams drafting in the teens are now terrified that there won't be any quarterbacks left!
4. Cleveland: RB Saquon Barkley (Penn State)
----- I adore Saquon and I genuinely believe that he can be a catalyst that helps turn things around in Cleveland. Thus, I'm either prescient or a chump. It'll be tough for Cleveland to pass on Chubb if he's still here, but in this dream scenario, the Browns passing on Chubb is essential. If he goes to Cleveland, the dream scenarios become much less likely.
5. Denver: G Quenton Nelson (Notre Dame)
----- This is a key pick: if Denver loves Nelson, they're disinclined to trade back. I don't want the Bears drafting a pure guard this high. It's been generations since a college guard drafted this highly worked out.
6. Indianapolis: DE Bradley Chubb (NC State)
----- Chubb is a top-3 talent in just about every draft. He's too good to pass up on here for Indy, preventing another trade.
7. Tampa Bay: LT Mike McGlinchy (Notre Dame)
----- This one requires three factors working together in unison. First, Tampa has to have given up on former Penn State stalwart LT Donovan Smith. Second, Tampa has to love McGlinchy. Third, Tampa requires solid intel that Chicago, San Francisco, or Oakland will pick McGlinchy is he's on the board. In that perfect storm scenario, Tampa has to stay at #7 to get their man in order to keep Jameis Winston upright.
The above scenario is almost too good to be true for the Bears, though it's hardly far-fetched. It results in only Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson remaining on the board at quarterback. At that point, the Bears need more than one of Miami, Buffalo, Arizona, Baltimore, New England, or New Orleans to be head over heels for one of these guys. Every team in the league knows that the Bears (at #8), 49ers (at #9), and Raiders (at #10) aren't taking a quarterback, so leverage will have to come in the form of external competition. Miami makes plenty of sense -- Ryan Tannehill has only been OK, is coming off of a knee injury, and was drafted three GMs ago. Buffalo and Arizona both had recent success with older QBs but are looking to reset at the position. New England and New Orleans both need succession plans, though ponying up for the move to #8 may prove too rich for those clubs.
Unfortunately for the Bears, potential trade partners will be able to use San Francisco and Oakland as leverage against Chicago. Fortunately for the Bears, if there are enough teams involved, that issue should be mitigated.
Buffalo is my top choice in a trade partner. At #12, Buffalo's pick is close enough to the Bears' to move down and plausibly maintain a shot at a top target. Accordingly, the Bears swing the following deal:
Chicago trades #8 overall (21.4 CS, 1400 JJ) to Buffalo for #12 overall (18.8, 1200) and #65 overall (8, 265)
The Bears only pick up a hair of extra value on the Johnson chart, but this is a big boost on the Chase Stuart chart, a 25% increase in value. That matters a lot for the Bears.
From here, I'd be plenty content with the Bears picking LB Tremaine Edmunds (intentionally listed as merely "LB" given his versatile ability to play inside on early downs before shifting into a pass rushing role on later downs, if necessary), ILB Roquan Smith, CB Denzel Ward, DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, OLB Marcus Davenport, or WR Calvin Ridley at #12. Each pick makes tons of sense.
But do you know what makes even more sense? Leveraging access to Washington NT Vita Vea and trading down again.
Washington (NFL edition) is likely to make a play for Vea at #13, so any team desiring to draft the behemoth lineman will need to get to #12. The Chargers, Dallas, Detroit, and Atlanta all make sense for such a move as teams in win-now mode that would love a plug-and-play talent like Vea in their interior. As a result, Ryan Pace really changes his draft by making the following deal:
Chicago trades #12 overall (18.8, 1200) to Atlanta for #26 overall (13.9, 700), #200 overall (1, 11.4), and Atlanta's 2019 1st round pick
Woah. Atlanta struck out in free agency when it came time to replace Dontari Poe, so they're looking for a big piece in the middle of their defense. I'm not certain as to where Atlanta thinks they are on the win curve -- they could be headed for a mini-rebuild -- but if they're pushing for the Super Bowl again, this kind of move makes some sense. For the Bears, it's a no-brainer as the chance to get another 1st round pick is simply too enticing, especially since NFL front offices apply such hefty discounts to future picks given the likelihood that some other general manager has the job by then.
I had considered a big deal with New England, but it doesn't really make sense. At some point, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are going to decide to move on from football. That time could well be in the next two years. Making a big move and mortgaging a future pick only makes sense if the Patriots are going to face a rebuild in the coming years. Here's hoping that the time is now and that the Bears are involved. Unfortunately, it won't be for Vea after the Pats sent their 2019 3rd rounder to Cleveland for Danny Shelton.
At #26, the Bears could hope to land Boston College OLB Harold Landry, Iowa CB Joshua Jackson, UCLA OT Kolton Miller, Michigan DE Maurice Hurst, or Georgia G Isaiah Wynn, among others. Any of those picks would be fine.
In the end, the Bears would be dropping all the way from #8 to #26, a drop of 700 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart (equivalent of the #26 pick itself) and 7.5 points on the Chase Stuart chart (equivalent of the #70 overall pick). That's a lot of value. In exchange for their troubles, they'd pick up #65 overall, #200 overall, and a future 1st rounder. That's the kind of talent influx that the Bears need to fill out the roster: lots of bodies. That'd wrap things up for the team.
Unless...
What if the Jaguars decide that Lamar Jackson is an ideal successor at quarterback, especially in a run-first attack, who just needs another year or two to develop? What if New Orleans agrees? Well, then...
Chicago trades #26 overall (13.9, 700) to Jacksonville for #29 overall (13.2, 640) and #129 overall (3.7, 43)
The Bears would target the same players, scooping up a pick at the end of the 4th round for their troubles as Jacksonville jumps the Saints to get their man. That extra 4th round pick would likely give them plenty of ammunition with which to trade back into the mid-to-late 3rd round if necessary should a favorite prospect slip to the 80s or 90s like Penn State WR DaeSean Hamilton, Alabama CB Anthony Averett, USC OLB Uchenna Nwosu, or Kansas OLB Dorance Armstrong, to say nothing of extreme boom-or-bust candidate LSU OLB Arden Key.
This post is relatively straightforward: unlike most rebuilding teams, the Bears have shed picks instead of acquiring picks in recent years. It's time to acquire some extra picks, Ryan.
And please, oh please, don't draft a collegiate interior offensive lineman at #8.
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