I wrote a lot about potential scenarios for the Bears in the 2024 NFL offseason. While free agency featured its share of hits (Jaylon Johnson's extension, Gerald Everett's addition, the Keenan Allen trade) and misses (D'Andre Swift's deal, the Justin Fields trade), the draft also featured almost innumerable permutations. In the end, GM Ryan Poles took the easy path ahead, selecting the best player on his board at each spot. So, how did he do?
Before we start, recall that there's no grade inflation here. C is a solid, average move. B is a good move. A is a truly exceptional move. D is bad. F is a failure.
#1: USC QB Caleb Williams
The prince that was promised. While the Fields trade featured a galling return, that wasn't Williams' fault. He was the no-brainer choice at the top spot and the Bears' best hope to plug the hole at the QB spot that has plagued the franchise throughout its history.
Williams wasn't a flash-in-the-pan pick. He was an ultra-elite prospect coming out of Gonzaga High in Washington, DC, ranking either first or second among QBs by the major services depending on how they rated Quinn Ewers. Williams then starred as a freshman at Oklahoma, won the Heisman Trophy as a sophomore at USC, and actually improved his statistical output as a junior despite USC's struggles. Anyone has watched Big 12 football in the past two decades has a good feel for USC's defense in 2023. Again, not Williams' fault.
Here's hoping he puts the Bears on his back and carries the franchise to greatness. He has a solid offensive line and an elite group of pass catchers in his rookie season as part of a team that also features an elite back-seven on defense and...a defensive line. The Bears have a chance to win in 2024, and Williams will have a lot to say about whether they do.
Regardless, this is a superb pick.
Grade: A
#9: Washington WR Rome Odunze
Writing this a few months later, it's still hard to believe that Odunze made it to the Bears at #9. NFL.com (3rd), FOX (5th), PFF (6th), ESPN (8th), and CBS (9th) all graded Odunze as an elite WR prospect, so getting him at #9 looks pretty good in a vacuum.
Of course, none of this happens in a vacuum. We're living in a world where contracts for productive NFL WRs are exploding. As a result, the value proposition of getting a starting-caliber WR on a rookie deal presents especially tremendous efficiency.
On top of that, Odunze is an idyllic fit on this Bears roster. While Keenan Allen is a great security blanket for Williams in his rookie year, he doesn't figure to have a long-range fit as the #2 WR...which Odunze does. Odunze won't be forced into a starring role as a rookie, but so many contenders have propelled themselves to success by having strong depth at the WR spot which the Bears might be able to do with Odunze well overqualified as a #3 WR. Finally, Odunze's frame profiles wonderfully as a bigger option opposite DJ Moore.
Add it all up and this is a grand slam, accented even further by the fact that Poles was able to get Odunze while standing pat at #9 (despite his attempt to trade a 2025 4th to Atlanta to move up one spot). Poles gets graded on the actual outcome, not his offer to pay more for Odunze.
Grade: A+
#75: Yale OT Kiran Amegadjie
I love this pick so much. Amegadjie feels like the kind of prospect that the Packers have targeted for years. A plus physical profile combined with dominance at his level made Amegadjie intriguing. The fact that he has the frame and experience at LT figured to push him up into the second round and out of reach for the Bears, especially when factoring in his game experience in the interior, too; surely someone would jump at Amegadjie as an early-career starter somewhere with the ability to play everywhere on the line.
Of course, that's not how the Draft went. Perhaps scared away by Amegadjie's quad injury last fall, he made it to #75 and Poles astutely nabbed a really important piece for the Bears in 2024 (Amegadjie could start at RG or even LT at some point this year) and beyond (Amegadjie projects as a multi-spot starter moving ahead).
Rankings for Amegadjie were much more varied than for Williams and Odunze. CBS (116th) and ESPN (114th) saw him as a 4th rounder while PFF (57th) and NFL.com (64th) saw him in the 2nd. Only FOX (92nd) put him in the 3rd. That's probably about right given his profile.
But I'm very high on Amegadjie. If the Bears had a 2nd rounder, I would've been very happy with Amegadjie anywhere from about 40th overall onward. At #75, this is a great pick.
Grade: A-
#122: Iowa P Tory Taylor
Well this sure is a way to use the Robert Quinn pick!
The Bears desperately needed an upgrade at punter in light of Trenton Gill's performance over the past two seasons. Perhaps surprisingly, Poles found this upgrade by getting older at the position. I am very excited to see Taylor punt in a Bears uniform as both a former specialist and as someone who did not enjoy Gill's tenure. Taylor was a savant at Iowa; hopefully he brings that to Chicago.
Unfortunately, the value proposition monster rears its ugly head here. This Bears roster is not without holes. There was a gaping hole at DE at the time of the Taylor pick. I was very disappointed that #122 wasn't Kansas DE Austin Booker. He would've been a great fit, and I would've been OK with Booker at #75 given his projection and fit. More on that later.
In the coming years, I'll be watching the careers of Washington State S Jaden Hicks (a favorite of mine throughout my Draft prep), Iowa State CB T.J. Tampa, Clemson DE Xavier Thomas, Ohio State TE Cade Stover, and Louisville RB Isaac Guerendo, all players at positions where the Bears need talent who were taken in the next 15 selections.
I remain excited for Taylor and appreciate that he will play an important, immediate role on the 2024 Bears, but the value proposition is poor.
Grade: C-
#144: Kansas DE Austin Booker
Here's the ultimate value discussion. On one hand, Booker is an exciting prospect at a position of desperate need with the ceiling and projection of an NFL starter. He should be the #3 DE in 2024 with an eye on stepping into the #2 spot opposite Montez Sweat by 2025. He'll need to add a bit of size to reach his projection, but there's reason to think he can do that. While he weighed 240 lbs at the Combine, he bulked up to 253 at his Pro Day while running a faster 40-yard dash. His broad jump matches the explosion that showed up in his limited film after transferring from Minnesota. If he can stick at 253, he should be playable in a decent-sized role this year. Unfortunately, the Bears list him at 245, so we'll see where he lands this fall. Still, the value is strong...
...until, on the other hand, we see the trade cost. Poles made my least favorite type of trade, trading a 2025 4th for a 2024 5th. I know that this is the going rate for these types of trades, but I still hate them. While the time value of getting next year's pick this year is incredibly impactful to Poles, the Bears figure to stick around for a few generations, making this kind of move the worst type. While trading next year's 4th for an early 5th this year is the least-objectionable version of this deal, it remains objectionable. The Lions deal for Giovanni Manu -- next year's 3rd for a late 4th this year -- is probably the single worst version I've seen of this kind of deal, so that softens the blow for Poles.
So, I'm stuck between really liking just about everything about Booker the prospect and hating this kind of trade. The trade comp limits the value. Booker alone here would be a B+/A-, but the trade knocks down the grade while saying nothing about Booker himself.
A final thought: thank you, Falcons GM Terry Fontenot, for enabling the Bears to get both Odunze and Booker between their 2024 1st and 2025 4th rounders. We'll see where Booker's career goes, but this could turn into a real "what if" for the ages in Chicago.
Grade: C
I was very harsh on Poles' actions in free agency. I think he deserved that critique.
His Draft weekend was basically the opposite. Poles added key players that fit this roster really well, ensuring that the most important additions (Odunze and Amegadjie) help support Williams directly. I love it.
Overall Grade: A-
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