No need for a lengthy introduction here. We're well into the offseason at this point. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like this one here. The quick and dirty summary:
- The Bears will cut TE Gerald Everett and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
- GM Ryan Poles will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left, but a year removed from paying a 5th rounder for him, the guess here is that Poles keeps Bates, possibly requesting that he take a modest pay cut that can be recouped by being active on gamedays.
- Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same depth of options at DT.
- The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping that Ben Johnson is better than the last four!
Free Agency
OK, there actually is one big change here that is undeniably negative for the Bears: the NFL salary cap increased a good bit more than expected. The Bears previously enjoyed top-five cap space as a significant marginal advantage over the rest of the league, but with the new cap projection, the Bears figure to lose some of their ability to win free agency battles now that so many other teams picked up about $5M of space.
Estimating the base cap at $279M and factoring in the Bears' $5.1M of rollover cap from 2024, the Bears start with a cap number of $284.1M. Their top-51 contracts following the releases of Everett and Owens total $207M with $3.8M of dead cap bringing the total hit to $210.8M. That leaves $73.3M. Keeping $20M dry for the draft class, practice squad, and in-season moves is plenty conservative, so let's say they enter free agency with $53.3M of net cap space available for spending.
Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.
Now that PFF has published contract projections, I'll utilize those below. The big change for this mock: ESPN has named the Bears as the top fit for both Kansas City G Trey Smith and Atlanta C Drew Dalman. Could the Bears really go to the top of the market at two interior OL spots? Let's see what the offseason looks like if they do.
- Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $82M deal with $50M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of desperate need. This isn't complicated. Park Smith next to RT Darnell Wright and secure the right side as QB Caleb Williams develops. (I've long had Smith pegged at 4/$88M with $65M guaranteed. I think PFF is light.) It's worth noting that Smith has production and pedigree to fuel his free agency, but collegiate blood clots could scare some teams away just like they did during the Draft.
- Sign C Drew Dalman to a 4-year, $46M deal with $27.5M guaranteed. This doesn't require the same level of bank breaking given Dalman's injury history.
- Sign DT Levi Onwuzurike to a 2-year, $16.5M deal with $10M guaranteed. I have routinely mocked Philadelphia DT Milton Williams in this spot and PFF projects Williams for $21M on his next deal...per year! That'll be far too rich for Poles, so instead let's have Coach Johnson lure Onwuzurike to Chicago to join the rotation and add some pop. Onwuzurike is consistently productive, but he's got strikingly little game experience after sitting out his RS JR season at Washington during the pandemic and playing just 560 snaps in his first three NFL seasons combined. He's 27 and his 697 snaps in 2024 were really impressive, so perhaps his market ends up higher than this.
- Sign DE Derek Barnett to a 1-year, $4.25M deal. Barnett isn't a difference maker, but he's a solid citizen along a defensive line in need of some.
- Sign OT Jedrick Wills to a 1-year, $3M deal. A reunion with Kevin Zeitler would've made sense were it not for Smith. Unfortunately, almost all of the top free agent interior offensive linemen play RG, so we're going to take an unconventional approach and following the Mekhi Becton plan, signing Wills to try him at LG. If he flops, so be it.
- Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.
- Sign S Quandre Diggs to a 1-year, $3M deal. Diggs is coming off of a Lisfranc injury and he's 32, but he should be ready for 2025. He's a nice insurance policy for Brisker.
- Sign S Jaylon Jones to a 1-year, $1M deal. Keeping an RFA.
The above spending utilizes about $47.8M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.
NFL Draft
As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard, and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.
The Bears do have the tasty 39th pick from Carolina as the final piece from the Bryce Young trade, but this year's 4th rounder belongs to Buffalo thanks to the Austin Booker trade last year. With only four picks that can be reasonably counted on to produce 2025 starters, this is a tall task.
With that in mind, here we go!
Bears Trade #10 and #241 to Cincinnati for #17, #49, and #81
My rule at #10 remains the same as last month: if Penn State DE Abdul Carter or Michigan DT Mason Graham inexplicably slips to #10, make the pick and jump for joy. Otherwise, target a trade down. This is appropriate value as the additional 2nd and 3rd offer great value in spots where I really like this class.
#17: LSU OT Will Campbell
Huh. I did not see this coming. Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. was also available and I figured he stood a good chance to be the pick here. But someone always falls and, in this draft, it was Campbell. Perhaps teams didn't want to pick him higher than this if he's solidly a G on their board? Who cares! He's the perfect starter at LG who can project as a LT in year two and beyond.
#39: Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen
I'm very high on Umanmielen. He made a good choice to come back to school. He'd be a great fit on this roster.
#41: Texas DT Alfred Collins
This will feel too early for Collins for some folks. For me, it's not. He is a potential star with a unique physique that plays an essential spot. Obviously I would've preferred getting him later, but I couldn't risk him coming off the board between here and #49.
#49: Notre Dame S Xavier Watts
Had Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery made it here, he would've been the pick. But he didn't, so plug-and-play S Watts it is. He's a tremendous consolation prize for a safety room that has both Brisker and Byard in their walk years.
#72: West Virginia OT Wyatt Milum
I still think Milum is going to go in the 1st round by late April. Milum is so darn good and he's ready to be a plus player right away. There's talk of him kicking inside to G. Obviously he's only the pick if the Bears are confident that at least one of Campbell or Milum can play LT by 2026. Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea also warrants considerable consideration here.
For a team that has been so light on OL talent for so long, just get Milum in the building and figure it out later.
#81: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
The options were voluminous: Savaiinaea, South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori, Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr., and Kentucky DT Deone Walker are all very attractive options. But, ultimately, Winston is too good to pass up here. Winston had a 1st-round grade before a partial ACL tear ended his season in early September. The Bears can afford to bring him along slowly, if necessary, but he should be at full speed in camp.
Bears Trade S Kevin Byard to Las Vegas for #106
I don't know if this is fair value for Byard, but it seems a little rich to me. But, with Watts and Winston joining Brisker and with Diggs in house as a security blanket, Byard turns back into draft capital while also taking most of his cap hit to Vegas, leaving just $1.5M of dead cap behind and generating $7M of cap space.
#106: Kentucky DT Deone Walker
Nice! Walker would've been good at #81. At #106, this is tremendous. He's absolutely massive and is an ideal 1-tech if he continues to develop. In this DT room, he gets time to grow.
#148: Illinois WR Pat Bryant
Bryant doesn't have star potential, but he does bring solid citizen vibes. The Bears could use that in the WR room that desperately lacks depth behind Moore and Odunze.
#196: Texas Tech TE Jalin Conyers
Conyers is a great athlete in a somewhat undersized frame. He brings positional versatility playing in the backfield and on the edge, something that is ideal for a player in this spot on this roster.
#234: LSU WR Kyren Lacy
Important caveat: PFF is much lower on Lacy than most other services. It's fair to wonder why. Don't focus too much on Lacy specifically. Instead, think "possible WR/RB/TE contributor" in this spot.
QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Jalin Conyers
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Pat Bryant, Tyler Scott, Kyren Lacy, FREE AGENT
OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Wyatt Milum
OG (4): Trey Smith, Will Campbell, Jedrick Wills, Kiran Amegadjie
C (2): Drew Dalman, Ryan Bates
DE (5): Montez Sweat, Prince Umanmielen, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Derek Barnett
DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Levi Onwuzurike, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, Deone Walker
ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, FREE AGENT
OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT
S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Quandre Diggs, Xavier Watts, Jaylon Jones
SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT
Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:
As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR room is in deep trouble with an injury to Moore or Odunze. The TE room needs Kmet to stay healthy and productive. The RB room is hilariously thin.
Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. I say that every time, but this is the truest example. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features five defensive players among the top seven picks.
This is definitely my new favorite mock; that would've been true even swapping out Campbell for Banks. I nailed my goals on both lines in this mock. That's a recipe for success.
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