Chicago Bears NFL Draft Day Three Grades and Full Draft Grade

After adding TE Colston Loveland, WR Luther Burden III, OT Ozzy Trapilo, and DT Shemar Turner over the first two days of the NFL Draft, GM Ryan Poles and his staff put the finishing touches on their Draft class on Saturday with a flurry of moves. There's a lot of ground to cover, so off we go.

Bears trade #109 to Buffalo for #132 and #169

I was excited for a whole boatload of players in the top quarter of the fourth round. Then Poles made this deal to move down 23 spots and pick up a 5th, and, as it turns out, a gaggle of those players made it to #132 anyone. Cool! Here's the evaluation of this deal on the various charts:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 76
• Bears Get: 63.8 (40 + 23.8)
• NET: BILLS +12.2 (equivalent to pick #197 (mid-6th))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 4.7
• Bears Get: 5.4 (3.5 + 1.9)
• NET: BEARS +0.7 (equivalent to pick #205 (late-6th))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 623
• Bears Get: 926 (526 + 400)
• NET: BEARS +303 (equivalent to pick #205 (late-6th))

This pick went on quite the journey. It originally belonged to the Bears, who sent it to Buffalo for pick #144 in the 2024 Draft to select Kansas DE Austin Booker. Buffalo sent it back to the Bears on Friday night, then the Bears sent it to Buffalo again in this deal.

Buffalo took Kentucky DT Deone Walker. I loved South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders, Arkansas DE Landon Jackson, and Walker in this class, and those are the three players that landed with Buffalo on picks that the Bears controlled originally (#41 and #72) and via an earlier trade (#109). I'll look back on this with great interest in four years.

For this deal itself, it looks an awful lot like the deal from Friday night. It's clear that the Bills and Bears are using different pick value charts. As a general rule, when the value is close, give me the extra pick.

Grade: C+

#132: Bears Draft Maryland LB Ruben Hyppolite II

What in the world? I remember Hyppolite as a prospect out of Florida when he was a hot recruit who ended up at Maryland. Hyppolite then spent the next four years playing...forgettable football. Finally, in 2024, he played...fine. Hyppolite wasn't invited to the Combine. Then, he ran a blazing 4.45 second 40-yar dash at Maryland's Pro Day and showed above-average explosion and agility. This should have been necessary to get him a compelling UDFA offer in light of his 5'11.5", 236 lbs. frame and paltry 18 reps on the bench. Instead, the Bears took him at #132.

I immediately assumed that Hyppolite was targeted to be a core special teamer. That's great. Hyppolite playing on defense would be bad news for the Bears because (i) he's not big enough to play LB in the NFL, and -- this is very important -- (ii) he was never good as a college LB at Maryland.

This pick is baffling. Hyppolite can turn into a useful member of the Bears roster, and if he does, that'll be great. But it won't change the reality that he appears to have been overdrafted by 100 spots. The opportunity cost of this pick was acute. Here are a few of the players drafted between #132 and #169, when the Bears picked next:

• #133: Utah State WR Jalen Royals
• Did the Bears need another WR? No. But they didn't need Hyppolite either and Royals is way better.
• #136: Stanford WR Elic Ayomanor
• Ditto Royals.
• #139: Georgia DE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins
• My top player for the Bears on Day Three. If he becomes a real player in Minnesota, this one will really hurt in light of the Bears lacking depth at DE.
• #144: Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
• No way they were taking him...but just imagine.
• #146: LSU DE Bradyn Swinson
• Right behind Ingram-Dawkins for me.
• #149: Texas RB Jaydon Blue
• An undersized, explosive RB. The Bears still need this.
• #151: Kansas State RB DJ Giddens
• An exceptional athlete (9.78 RAS) with exceptional speed (4.43 40) and explosion.
• #154: Purdue G Marcus Mbow
• I didn't think that the Bears would consider another iOL...but then they did in the 6th.
• #156: Oregon LB Jeffrey Bassa
• The most direct comparable. Bassa is a better athlete than Hyppolite, albeit a slower one (4.63 40, which is still great).

This one hurts. It's the new worst pick of the Poles tenure.

Grade: F

Bears Trade #148 to Rams for #195 and a 2026 4th

Yes! Finally! The new best move of the Poles tenure! I've long despised this style of trade, where a pick in one round is traded for a pick a round earlier in the following year's Draft. The Bears made this exact type of move last year in the aforementioned Booker deal. The net result? The Bears acquired pick #144 in 2024 for pick #109 in 2025. Ouch.

But here we are, running it back the other way...but even better! Poles got #195 this year in addition to next year's 4th. Truly incredible. The worst-case result of this trade is that Poles traded #148 for #134 and #195, and that's only if the Rams win the Super Bowl. The worse things go for the Rams, the better things go for the Bears.

Grade: A+

#169: Bears Draft UTSA CB Zah Frazier

Hell yeah! This is a wonderful pick. I really liked Frazier, regularly taking him late in the Draft in my mocks. As we got closer to the Draft, it became clear that Frazier's athletic profile and immense production at UTSA wouldn't permit taking him in the seventh round. So, getting him late in the fifth after trading down is one helluva strong outcome.

Frazier is a tremendous athlete in an idyllic frame. He's just under 6'3", ran a 4.36 40, and tested above-average on everything. He's just light at 186 lbs. In the fifth? Yes!

Grade: A-

#195: Bears Draft Michigan State C Luke Newman

Hyppolite was a massive reach at #132. Newman also appears to be quite a reach at #195 given that he didn't appear with a profile for any of the major Draft services. There's a comment to be made about overdrafting here, too.

However, I don't see Newman the same way for a few key reasons. First, Newman was good in college! After a strong turn as LT at Holy Cross, he moved on to MSU and produced a nice season at LG against significantly stronger competition. Second, the opportunity cost at #195 is dramatically lower than at #132. Consider the relative value of those picks by the three charts referenced above:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• #132: 40
• #195: 13
• Relative value of #132: 3.1x
• Chase Stuart Chart
• #132: 3.5
• #195: 1
• Relative value of #132: 3.5x
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• #132: 526
• #195: 328
• Relative value of #132: 1.6x

Third, Newman figures to kick further inside to C in the NFL, and, as a C, he has nearly average NFL size at 6'3.5", 308 lbs. and otherwise elite athleticism, posting a marvelous 9.69 RAS. His 31" arms are wholly inadequate at LT, but at C? There could be something here. This is a sensible risk, making this a perfectly average pick and one that is likely bad news for Doug Kramer.

Grade: C

#233: Bears Draft Rutgers RB Kyle Monangai

Well, hey, it's a running back, right? 

Miami's Damien Martinez and SMU's Brashard Smith very nearly made it here, both coming off the board in the 10 picks before the Bears took Monangai. It's unlikely that any of these backs become stars, but both Martinez (9.35 RAS, 4.51 40) and Smith (7.21 RAS, 4.39 40) are considerably more interesting athletes than Monangai (4.39 RAS, 4.62 40). And anyone making an Isaih Pacheco comparison needs to pump the breaks: Pacheco tested exceptionally well (8.86 RAS, 4.37 40).

Monongai will be easy to root for and I suspect he'll do a great job of helping folks understand what "contact balance" really means. He's got a sufficiently powerful, compact frame, but my expectations for him are low: compared to Roschon Johnson coming out of Texas, Monongai is four inches shorter, 14 lbs. lighter, featured a vertical that was 3" higher, a broad jump that was a tick shorter, a 40 time that was 0.04 slower, and a 10-yard split that was even slower (0.07 seconds). Contact balance has some serious work to do.

Grade: C

That's it for the picks. Final thoughts before recapping the individual grades and issuing a final grade:

• This is the kind of wheeling and dealing that I often dream about: the Bears made their own pick only once in this Draft, at #10 overall. Every other pick originally belonged to another team.
• This was a really good Draft for QB Caleb Williams that followed a tremendous free agency period for the young QB. With WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Luther Burden III, and Olamide Zaccheus complementing TEs Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland, Williams figures to have at least three high-quality targets on the field for every snap.
• Offensive line depth is now the best that it has been in recent memory. There are four quality starting-caliber options at OT (Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kiran Amegadjie, and Ozzy Trapilo) and four quality starting options in the interior (Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson, and Ryan Bates). The ninth roster spot for OL -- if there is one -- figures to be an interesting battle between Newman, Kramer, and G Bill Murray. Most importantly, the floor was been raised dramatically.
• The DT room looks dramatically better when newcomers Turner and Grady Jarrett joining Gervon Dexter and Andrew Billings. The fifth DT battle between Chris Williams and Zacch Pickens will be interesting. Here's hoping that Pickens grows into the job.
• The CB room is in perfect shape with Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson leading the way outside, Kyler Gordon starring in the slot, and Terell Smith, Josh Blackwell, and Frazier backing them up. Frazier, in particular, shouldn't be thrust into uncomfortable spots as a rookie thanks to the talent in front of him.
• Depth, on the other hand, is a real concern at S, LB, and especially DE. For a team with playoff aspirations, the Bears figure to count on both Austin Booker and Daniel Hardy to play meaningful reps at DE. Yikes! Despite Jaquan Brisker having suffered at least three concussions, the S reserves as Jonathan Owens and Elijah Hicks. Yikes! And while T.J. Edwards figures to serve as Tremaine Edmunds' top backup in the middle, the top true reserve is...Hyppolite? Special teamer Amen Ogbongbemiga? This is a serious concern. The Bears guaranteed $130,000 of 2025 money to UDFA and North Carolian alum Power Echols, so it's possible that they see the explosive, reasonably fast but undersized LB as a roster fit.
• Dennis Allen doesn't have the same depth available to him as Declan Doyle, but there's enough talent for an above-average NFL defense.
• Jonathan Kim made a 58-yd field goal at Kinnick Stadium last year along with a 54-yard hit at the Horseshoe. The career-long for for Cairo Santos? 55. Just saying.

It was quite the eventful Draft weekend for the Bears. Things around the organization feel different, though, to be fair, they felt great last April too coming off of a positive finish to the 2023 season and the acquisition of Williams. Still, this is an exciting time.

Before the final grade, here's a recap of the grades above and before:

• #10: Michigan TE Colston Loveland: D+
• #39: Missouri WR Luther Burden III: A
• Trade #41, #72, and #240 to Buffalo for #56, #62, and #109: C+
• #56: Boston College OT Ozzy Trapilo: C-
• #62: Texas A&M DT Shemar Turner: C-
• Trade #109 to Buffalo for #132 and #169: C+
• #132: Maryland LB Ruben Hyppolite: F
• Trade #148 to Rams for #195 and a 2026 4th: A+
• #169: UTSA CB Zah Frazier: A-
• #195: Michigan State C Luke Newman: C
• #233: Rutgers RB Kyle Monongai: C

There are a lot of average grades in here and then there are a couple of outliers: excellent moves for Burden, Frazier, and the Rams' 2026 4th, and a dreadful move for Hyppolite with a reach for Loveland. The Loveland reach is damaging.

And a recap of the free agency grades:

• Trade #198 to Rams for G Jonah Jackson: F-
• Trade 2026 4th to Kansas City for G Joe Thuney: B
• DT Chris Williams (original-round tender): D-
• C Drew Dalman: A-
• DE Dayo Odeyingbo: C-

In the end, the 2024 and 2025 results are flip-flopped. In 2024, I loved the work the Poles did in the Draft (A-) following a rough free agency period (D+). This year, on the other hand, the most meaningful moves -- for Thuney and Dalman -- were massive wins, leading to strong work in the aggregate for free agency. The Draft, on the other hand, feels much more average. So here we are:

Free Agency Grade: B

Draft Grade: C-

Offseason Grade: C+

A tick above average in the aggregate. That'll play.

Chicago Bears NFL Draft Day Three: Grading Day Two and Looking to Day Three

The last post was easy: it involved grading the TE Colston Loveland selection and looking to a whole bunch of players I had evaluated for months. Looking to Day Three is a little different with a massive pool of available players and tons of variance, plus more Day Two moves to evaluate. So, let's get right to it.

#39: Bears Draft Missouri WR Luther Burden III

Hell. Yes. This will be my favorite pick of this Draft. No questions asked.

Burden is a star. Due primarily to injury, his QB, Brady Cook, regressed in 2025 and Burden's production took a huge hit. His target share dropped from 120 to 81, so it was rather impressive that he still produced 61 grabs and six scores. Following that big drop, Burden slipped a bit in the eyes of draftniks despite his 5-star pedigree and incredible sophomore year production. Murmurs about practice concerns and possible interference from his mom may have impacted his Draft position, too, and the phone call from GM Ryan Poles and Head Coach Ben Johnson hinted to that.

My take? Burden slipping this far was very dumb. Burden is a star. And many Draft evaluators agree, with CBS, NFL.com, and PFN all giving him top-10 overall grades; PFF, Draft Buzz, and Todd McShay all graded him as a first-round pick, and only ESPN had him ranked lower than 39th, where he ended up being selected.

So why do I like him so much? Because he's awesome. Burden looks exactly like D.J. Moore to me. I finally compared their testing scores after Burden became a Bear and I chuckled:

• Height: They're both 6'0".
• Weight: Moore weighed in at 210 whereas Burden weighed in at 206.
• 40 Time: Moore ran 4.42, then Burden ran a 4.42.
• Agility and explosion testing: Burden didn't complete this testing.

But I can guess how that testing would've gone: Burden's explosion and twitchiness jump off the screen. He primarily lived in the slot. Assuming he continues to live there, he's going to get open a ton and punish defenses with the ball in his hands after the catch, just like Moore does at his best. Burden absolutely has got that dawg in him. And he could even end up returning punts.

Plus, he's remarkable value at #39. This is a testament to sticking with your board and taking the best player available, even though WR wasn't the biggest need at this point. Burden is a perfect fit for this roster, a plug-and-play firecracker at a starting spot with immense playmaking ability. Let's. Go.

Grade: A

Bears Trade #41, #72, and #240 to Buffalo for #56, #62, and #109

There are some serious moving pieces here. At first blush, it seemed a little light, but not outrageously so. Obviously #240 is basically worthless whereas #109 is an important addition to the roster, so trading two roster players for three is a good idea. Let's look at the trade using three different pick value charts:

• Jimmy Johnson Chart
• Bears Send: 721 (490 + 230 + 1)
• Bears Get: 700 (340 + 284 + 76)
• NET: BILLS +21 (equivalent to pick #176 (equivalent to last pick in the 5th))
• Chase Stuart Chart
• Bears Send: 18.5 (11 + 7.4 + 0.1)
• Bears Get: 22 (9 + 8.3 + 4.7)
• NET: BEARS +3.5 (equivalent to pick #132 (late-4th))
• Spielberger-Fitzgerald Chart
• Bears Send: 2,184 (1,118 + 833 + 233)
• Bears Get: 2,492 (960 + 909 + 623)
• NET: BEARS +308 (equivalent to pick #203 (mid-6th))

So, it depends where you look. Seeing that the value charts render a close outcome and the Bears get a crack at a third meaningful member of the roster, I'll take it and enjoy this slightly above-average move.

Grade: C+

#56: Bears Draft Boston College OT Ozzy Trapilo

Huh? This one has me scratching my head. I largely eschewed Trapilo in mock drafts for two key reasons: (i) he doesn't appear to have the athletic traits that Poles desires, and (ii) he is, by all accounts, a pure RT.

Trapilo played LT in 2022 and struggled. So, he flipped to the right side and was considerably better over the next two seasons. Does that mean he can't play LT? Probably not, but it does mean that there will be a learning curve. He surely won't be expected to step in at LT to start the 2025 season, which is a tricky proposition for such an experienced, older (23.5) prospect.

His athletic profile ends up being quite good in the aggregate, but that's more because he avoids having athletic flaws instead of having any elite traits, save for his 6'8" height. His arms are much shorter at 33" than those of the OTs that Poles has drafted in RT Darnell Wright (33.75") and OL Kiran Amegadjie (36.1"). Trapilo also has less impressive speed and explosion across the board when compared to Braxton Jones; this is a problem in a zone blocking scheme.

So, once again: huh.

There's no mistaking that the Bears' best offensive line combination in 2025 is as follows:

• LT Braxton Jones
• LG Joe Thuney
• C    Drew Dalman
• RG Jonah Jackson
• RT Darnell Wright

This leaves Amegadjie and Trapilo in swing bench roles, likely with Trapilo as the top backup OT and Amegadjie as the top G backup (remember that Amegadjie is allowed to get better, especially another year removed from injury).

Drafting Trapilo puts a lot of pressure on pick #109 to become a dude in light of Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery going at #48, after #41 and before #56. Surely the Bears were lukewarm on Ersery and, if that's the case, the trade looks better.

This pick appears to say a lot more about the 2026 offensive line. With Amegadjie at #75 in 2024 and now Trapilo at #56 in 2025, there's almost no chance that the Bears entertain paying Jones the $20M+ he figures to command on the open market. But it also raises a big question for 2025: is there really a chance that the Bears flip Wright to LT this year? My goodness, I hope not. This pick will get a failing grade if the Bears truly elect not to bring back anyone in their 2024 spots on the line. If the approach, instead, is to throw Jones, Amegadjie, and Trapilo into a blender to see who emerges...great! That's what smart teams do.

This feels a little high for Trapilo and he's not my favorite guy, but this is a fine choice in the end.

Grade: C-

#62: Bears Draft Texas A&M DT Shemar Turner

Let's start with the plusses. Turner is a true 3-technique DT, an essential position in this defense. He can serve as Grady Jarrett's understudy in 2025 while playing in the rotation alongside Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, and Andrew Billings, then he can push Jarrett to the bench in 2026 if things go well. That's a great plan. Acquiring Turner also likely pushes Chris Williams off of the roster, freeing up some valuable cap space.

Turner has an impressive first step. When he pins his ears back and rushes up the middle, there's a good bit to like. Turner is a good athlete on the inside, having played 2023 at 270 lbs.

But it's impossible to evaluate Turner without considering a few big risks:

1. Opportunity Cost. There's an expectation that DE Dayo Odeyingbo will kick inside occasionally on third downs, meaning that the depth chart at DE is much more desperate for a new body than DT. This pick means that the Bears won't take a DE in the top 100 picks. Yikes. No pressure, Austin Booker.
2. Attitude. Turner's attitude is simultaneously exciting and concerning. He's intense and the Bears need some edge. On the other hand, he has committed seven personal foul penalties and been ejected from games in the past two years. That doesn't sound like intensity; that sounds like a lack of discipline.
3. Injury History. Trapilo has a rod in his foot. Turner had a rod inserted into his foot in January to repair a stress fracture that didn't heal before the 2024 season. And he had shoulder labrum surgery before the 2024 season. Yikes!

There are two other big thoughts for when when evaluating Turner. First, the value isn't great. Turner was routinely mocked about 20 spots lower, so this is a reach for a risky player. Second, and conversely, taking players from Texas A&M is a great path to success. A&M's coaching staff consistently underwhelms when developing players, so there's a good chance that there's untapped potential here.

Much like Trapilo, Turner is going to be compared to South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders, who Buffalo chose at pick #41 that they acquired from the Bears. He'll also be compared to Arkansas DE Landon Jackson, selected at #72 with the other pick that the Bears sent to Buffalo.

Turner is a sensible enough risk, I think, but not at #62; this feels like too rich of a spot for him.

Grade: C-

In the end, Day Two went...fine. The start was miraculous, but things slipped a bit from there. Credit where it's due, though: I'm ecstatic that Poles drafted multiple linemen this year and traded down and got Burden in the 2nd. Wild.

Now, the Bears have two key picks remaining at #109 and #148. Here is my hot list for those spots on Saturday as Poles goes to fill out the Draft class. I actually like some of the RBs more than I like the DEs, but DEs are much more valuable, hence the flavor of this list.

1. Georgia DE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins
1. Crazy athlete who got buried behind Georgia's star-studded cast up front. He's a tremendous athlete with the big frame that Allen wants.
2. LSU DE Bradyn Swinson
1. Swinson isn't as long as Dennis Allen wants, but the speed and violence is too good to pass up outside of the top-100 picks.
3. Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson
1. Imagine if Tarik Cohen was a few inches and 30 lbs. bigger. He's undersized, but there's an explosive play waiting to happen here.
4. Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo
1. Skattebo is slow for an NFL RB. But he's outrageously explosive. I'm not sure what to do with that. But I think he'd be fun!
5. Texas DE Barryn Sorrell
1. Sorrell is similar to Swinson, only even smaller with slightly less impressive athleticism.
6. Kansas RB Devin Neal
1. I like Neal a lot. Nothing looks elite, but everything looks good.
7. SMU RB Brashard Smith
1. Smith is really fast, having recently converted to RB from WR. He's shifty and can make big plays, but he'll never form the long side of a backfield rotation.
8. Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
1. WHAT??? The Bears actually offer Sanders a decent landing spot at this point, where he'll arrive as a clear backup who needs to practice his way into potential starter elsewhere. The value is here.
9. Oklahoma LB Danny Stutsman
1. Stutsman is no star, but he's got NFL athleticism. He needs to put things together.
10. Penn State S Jaylen Reed
1. Reed ran exceptionally well in pre-Draft testing, which allowed his otherwise strong tape to move him into this early Day Three territory. Good for him!
11. Ohio State S Lathan Ransom
1. Ransom is good. He's not great at anything in particular, but he's good at everything.
12. Virginia Tech RB Bhayshul Tuten
1. Fast. Crazy fast. Explosive. Crazy explosive. But small.
13. Georgia RB Trevor Etienne
1. He's a bit undersized, but there's big-play ability here.
14. Texas RB Jaydon Blue
1. Blue looks really little, but he's very fast and a bit slippery.
15. Clemson S R.J. Mickens
1. Mickens is a reasonably good athlete who coms with lots of experience and production.
16. Utah State WR Jalen Royals
1. I love Royals and have loved him throughout the Draft process. Unfortunately, it's nearly impossible to justify taking another WR high.
17. UTSA CB Zah Frazier
1. Frazier is extremely and seriously fast. With his rangy frame, he'd be a fund Cover-2 defender.
18. Nevada S Kitan Crawford
1. Crawford looks like a good player with strong instincts.
19. Oklahoma S Billy Bowman Jr.
1. Bowman is really small. But he's also really fast and flies around at the back of the defense.
20. Kentucky DT Deone Walker
1. Walker has really tumbled down the board throughout the Draft process. I think there's still plenty of intrigue here, but it's tough to justify another DT.
21. Wisconsin S Hunter Wohler
1. Productive for a long time, Wohler's athleticism was stunningly good. Cool!
22. South Carolina DE Kyle Kennard
1. I'm not sure how Kennard was so productive. He looks stiff. But he might be big enough and plays at a key spot.
23. Syracuse DE Fadil Diggs
1. Diggs is expected to go really late. He'd be a fine flyer in my eyes.
24. Ohio State DE Jack Sawyer
1. At some point, Sawyer's immense collegiate production will be enough to overcome his otherworldly small arm length (4th percentile) and wingspan (8th percentile). It's Day Three. We're there. But he's a terrible fit for Allen's defense.
25. Ole Miss DE Jared Ivey
1. Ivey is big, strong, and long. But my God, his Combine was an abomination. You'll never see an uglier RAS card.

Lots of good prospects here. All of them flawed. Here's what I'd like to see:

#109: Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson (Arizona State RB Cam Skattebo would also be very fun)

#148: Georgia DE Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins

#233: Nevada S Kitan Crawford

Final thought: Ben Johnson, it's time to produce. The new head man has seen Poles add a ludicrous haul to this offense. Johnson gets to run the show now!

Chicago Bears NFL Draft Day Two: Grading Loveland and Looking to Tonight

The dream scenario was so close. Penn State TE Tyler Warren, a playmaking unicorn at a position in desperate need of an infusion of talent on the Bears' roster, made it to #10. The Bears had resisted the urge to surrender valuable capital by trading up. And then they drafted a tight end! Unfortunately for me, they chose the Wolverine over the Nittany Lion, so here I am hoping that the former Michigan player turns into an NFL star. Barf.

Nevertheless, hope remains. So, without further adieu, here's a grade for the Colston Loveland pick followed by a look to tonight's picks, currently slated for #39, #41, and #72. Before turning to the grades, please recall that there's no grade inflation here: C is average, D is below-average, B is above-average, F is failing, and A is exceptional.

#10: Bears Draft Michigan TE Colston Loveland 

Let's start with the good: Loveland is a great TE prospect! He has great height at 6'6" and adequate weight at 248 lbs. He's young, having just turned 21, his athleticism appears to be above-average despite a lack of athletic testing, and he played in a pro style offense that heavily featured his skills, leading to big production. There's a ton to like about his fit in Ben Johnson's offense, and if you've been underwhelmed by Cole Kmet's production for years (like me), a hot new TE prospect should be just what the doctor ordered.

Unfortunately, that's far from the end of the story here. Loveland has a few big things working against him -- some his fault, others not -- that will make it difficult for him to produce value as the #10 overall pick. To wit:

1. Shoulder Injury. Loveland separated his shoulder last September and, to his immense credit, made it through late November before tapping out prior to Michigan's game at Ohio State. Unfortunately, for some inexplicable reason, he didn't undergo surgery to repair his AC joint until January 29th, 2025. As of February, his hope was to be cleared for contact within six months. Training camp starts in late July. It'll be dicey as to whether he's available to start camp with the team. That's a bad thing. Notably in his favor: the prognosis for a full recovery is strong.
2. Positional Value. Tight ends are important, but they aren't paid accordingly. The top of the TE market is now a $19M average annual value (AAV) with just $32.5M guaranteed via Trey McBride's extension with the Cardinals. Conversely, the market for a slightly below-average DE like new Bear Dayo Odeyingbo is a $16M AAV with $29.5M guaranteed. TE simply isn't the most valuable spot on the roster, so it's going to be tough for Loveland to produce lots of surplus value on his rookie deal. This is highlighted by the constant comparisons to Lions TE Sam LaPorta. LaPorta is a really good TE who played in a system that highlighted his skills. He represented great value when Detroit drafted him...at #34. There's a chasm between their draft positions.
3. Play Strength. This isn't my critique; I won't pretend to be an expert at evaluating TE blocking beyond to say that it's something at which Mike Gesicki never excelled. However, Loveland's NFL.com profile contains this chilling sentence: "Will get rag-dolled at the point of attack by NFL power." Yikes.
4. The Bears Are a Dumb NFL Franchise. This isn't Loveland's fault. But the Bears have only one winning season in the last 12 years since Lovie Smith was fired. Bad teams often stay bad by being dumb. It's safe to assume that the Bears made a dumb choice until proven otherwise. GM Ryan Poles repeatedly mentioned falling in love with Loveland while watching former Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy in advance of the 2024 NFL Draft. That's good -- he's done his homework -- and bad -- the 2024 season also happened and needs to be evaluated. And when I say that they made a "dumb choice," I'm of course referring to...
5. The Tyler Warren Problem. Loveland's career will be inextricably linked to Tyler Warren's as they were the near-consensus top-two TEs in the Draft. Warren exploded in his final season at Penn State, running away with the Mackey Award after producing one of the most impressive seasons by a collegiate TE ever. His performance against USC is the stuff of legend. Warren is huge, he runs reasonably well -- though perhaps not quite as fluidly as Loveland -- and he has played everywhere in the Penn State offense, offering as much versatility as a TE can offer. And yet, presented with the choice, the Bears opted for Loveland. Here's hoping Poles got it right. Admittedly, Warren also would've had to overcome the positional value issue that Loveland faces, though Warren's versatility 
6. The Bears' Haunting Draft Comparables. There are two former Bears first-round picks that immediately came to mind, neither for the right reason. First, in 2012, the Bears found themselves in desperate need of an edge rusher to help the aging Israel Idonije opposite star DE Julius Peppers. With hulking, 11th-graded (per ESPN) Syracuse DE Chandler Jones on the board, the Bears opted for Boise State's Shea McClellin (ranked 19th). Choosing the Idaho-based, lower-ranked prospect didn't work in 2012 as McClellin washed out with the Bears while Jones spent the next decade at the Pro Bowl and playing in Super Bowls. Second, way back in 2001, the Bears drafted a big Michigan pass catcher to help their young QB from Los Angeles, Cade McNown. Despite a few memorable plays against the 49ers in his rookie season, Terrell was a bust, being cut before finishing his rookie deal. Ironically, the next Bears pick, RB Anthony Thomas, is the last Wolverine chosen by the Bears in any round prior to Loveland.

There's one more comment before we get to the grade. A lot has been made of this being a pick for new coach Ben Johnson. That's great. However, while it's good for Johnson and his staff to communicate with Poles about their desired fits, it's ultimately the GM's job to make the picks. Poles is the one who will be fired if the Bears don't improve on his 15-36 record in a hurry.

In the end, I think that Loveland stands a good chance to be a good contributor with the Bears. However, this is a surprisingly risky pick in that Loveland will have a hard time producing value given the cost that the Bears paid to obtain him. This isn't a terrible pick, but it is a below-average one.

Grade: D+

NFL Draft - Day Two

Thankfully for the Bears, the Draft isn't over! Arguably, today is even more important as the Bears seek to add three more starters to their roster. Here is a look at my Bears-specific big board in advance of tonight. But first, a note: you may have noticed that the order of some of these players has changed from earlier in the week. Why? It's simple: the Bears spent the #10 pick on a non-QB, non-WR offensive skill position player, so the relative value of linemen -- especially DLs -- on Day Two increased. So here goes:

1. Marshall DE Mike Green
1. Is Green even on the board? Surely his sexual assault accusations scared away a number of teams. Are the Bears one of those teams? He lacks the length that DC Dennis Allen wants, but the first step is explosive enough for him to land atop this list.
2. Arkansas DE Landon Jackson
1. Great athlete with the length that Dennis Allen wants. I love Jackson.
3. Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery
1. I've long wondered why he wasn't projected as a 1st rounder. Elite athlete with only 33 1/8" arms. But that's probably long enough to take the shot on his movement skills given his massive size.
4. Ohio State DE J.T. Tuimoloau
1. There's prospect fatigue at play here. JTT looks really good.
5. Texas A&M DE Nic Scourton
1. The Texas A&M year was weird; he looked even better coming out of Purdue.
6. Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea
1. Lots of talk about him moving to G: (i) that's fine, and (ii) he's got the arms (33.9"), speed (95th percentile), and weight (324) to offset his slightly shorter height. He'd be a great fit.
7. Michigan CB Will Johnson
1. Surely the injury history has raised red flags.
8. South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori
1. He needs to improve his play recognition, but the sky is the limit.
9. Missouri WR Luther Burden
1. Incredible value in the 2nd round.
10. South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders
1. Sanders is a true 3-technique. Very quick.
11. Texas DT Alfred Collins
1. Collins is a nose for the Bears. He's probably more of a target in the 3rd. I've liked him throughout this process.
12. Toledo DT Darius Alexander
1. Great athlete with good size, great speed, and a long frame. But he is old (24).
13. East Carolina CB Shavon Revel
1. Good prospect at a position that isn't a need.
14. Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins
1. Good looking prospect at a position that probably isn't a big need given how much time the Bears figure to spend in 12 personnel.
15. Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
1. I'd love to have KJ join the Bears. His ACL tear in September stole all of last season, but he was a 1st rounder after his sophomore year.
16. Notre Dame S Xavier Watts
1. Watts is a strong plug-and-play option. I just like Winston better.
17. Tennessee DT Omarr Norman-Lott
1. Not my favorite prospect, but he is at a key spot.
18. Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
19. Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins
20. Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson
21. UCLA LB Carson Schwesinger
1. I like Schwesinger more than the RBs, but the value proposition is poor as he'd be drafted to start in 2026. LBs have largely become plug-and-play at this point.
22. Utah State WR Jalen Royals
1. I love Royals as a prospect, but I'm hoping he makes it to #72. The #40 neighborhood is too early for him.
23. Washington State WR Kyle Williams
1. Ditto Royals.

My preferred positions are really easy to figure out in light of Loveland going at #10:

1. Defensive End
2. Offensive Tackle
3. Defensive Tackle
4. Safety

Lots of fans want a RB early in the 2nd round tonight. I want the Bears to win. They have a desperate need at DE for a rookie to come play 500 snaps, and the Bears cannot continue to eschew linemen in the draft.

The best-case scenario probably looks something like this:

#39: Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery 

#41: Arkansas DE Landon Jackson

#72: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.

Why did I skip DT? If the Bears draft a DE expected to play big snaps, including on 3rd down, new DE Dayo Odeyingbo figures to get a handful of 3rd down snaps at DT, minimizing the need on the inside.

Go Bears! 

Chicago Bears Specific Big Board at #10 in the NFL Draft

This should be my last post before the 1st round kicks off next Thursday in Green Bay. Will it be? We'll see. But this is the last key post I've wanted to do.

Two posts ago, I ranked possible scenarios for the Bears at #10, ranging from a superstar inexplicably dropping to #10 all the way to desperately trading up for a non-star. In my last post, I evaluated the value proposition attached to five of the most realistic trade scenarios for the Bears.

Here, I'm going to take a simpler approach, ranking the plausible Bears choices at #10 from my favorite to least favorite. So, you won't see Miami QB Cam Ward on here -- the Bears aren't replacing Caleb Williams. You won't see West Virginia LT Wyatt Milum either -- I love Milum but he's not going in the top-10. This exercise is much cleaner than most mock drafts I run. It's easy. If the Bears stay at #10, I'd be most excited to see the player ranked at #1 below and least excited to see the players at the bottom of the list.

Away we go!

1. Penn State DE Abdul Carter
1. Rationale: Carter is a superstar at a premium position where the Bears could use a key young piece. Carter is a tad undersized at 6'3", 250 lbs., but it's awfully easy to ignore that when you consider (i) he ran an incredible 4.48 40 at that size while also broad jumping an outrageous 10'7", (ii) 2024 was his first year as a DE, yet he was a unanimous All-American, and (iii) his burst is nearly unmatched. He even comes with position flexibility given his time at OLB at Penn State.
2. Plausibility: LOL, even with his foot and shoulder injuries slowly him in 2025.
2. Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter
1. Rationale: The Bears don't have particular needs at WR or CB, per se, but Hunter is the type of football player where you take him when you can and figure out things like roster fit later. Hunter is a star WR and a superstar CB, seemingly with the ability to play 80-90 snaps a game. I assume that Hunter pushes to play WR full-time while spending most defensive 3rd downs on the field.
2. Plausibility: LOL, part two.
3. Michigan DT Mason Graham
1. Rationale: Graham is the ideal long-term solution for the Bears at the 3-technique spot. Graham is somehow explosive, quick, and a mauler, all at the same time. His weight is a bit confusing, having been listed at 320 lbs. while weighing in at just 296 lbs. recently. Regardless, Graham has the look of a decade-long cornerstone piece up front. While Grady Jarrett was signed to fill that spot in 2025 and 2026, Jarrett would instead serve as a useful cog in a top-notch four-man rotation comprised of Jarrett, Graham, Gervon Dexter Sr., and Andrew Billings. After routinely playing 800 snaps a year, Jarrett is probably better served as a 500-600 snap per year player in his 30s. 
2. Plausibility: Long shot, but not inconceivable.
4. LSU LT Will Campbell
1. Rationale: Campbell was a day-one start at LSU. He has ultra-elite athleticism, posting a 9.89 RAS fueled by speed and explosion. His frame is above-average for an NFL OT. He's young, having just turned 21. He should be a slam-dunk top-five pick. Ah, but those arms. Campbell's arms measured at just 32.6", well below average for an NFL OT and, for some teams, too short to consider. The Bears may be once such team: their three current OTs all have much longer arms with Braxton Jones (35.375"), Darnell Wright (33.75"), and Kiran Amegadjie (36.125") notably exceeding Campbell. So why is Campbell on here? Easy: he's either a star at LT or a star at LG who can serve as the top interior backup in 2025 before sliding into Joe Thuney's spot in 2026 and sticking around for a long time. He's a surefire NFL stud...somewhere.
2. Plausibility: Pretty unlikely, but there's a world where Campbell gets to #10.
5. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty
1. Rationale: Jeanty is a fast, explosive bowling ball. I don't recall seeing a prospect like him previously. I've gone into plenty of detail on Jeanty in earlier posts, so here, I'll leave it at this: Jeanty can be the focal point of an offense from the jump. While he's stylistically different from Saquon Barkley, he's the first RB since Barkley that appears to justify such a high selection.
2. Plausibility: More unlikely than likely to reach #10, but there's a real chance.
6. Penn State TE Tyler Warren
1. Rationale: Warren is so darn fun. He'd be a joy to watch. I'm not sure that he'll ever be an elite athlete at the TE spot, but that doesn't really matter. Warren is a plug-and-play starter who can play in-line, in the slot, outside, and even in the backfield. He can go under center in short yardage situations. His outrageous catch radius will serve as a boon to his QB. And Warren's ability to get open plays in all schemes.
2. Plausibility: Coin flip.
7. Marshall DE Mike Green
1. Rationale: Green has a pair of sexual assault accusations on his resume, so he could be a non-starter for the Bears. If the Bears are satisfied that these issues were properly addressed, however, Green has the kind of top-level ceiling that is tough to ignore. Green is explosive and fast. He might be a bit undersized right now, but the pass rushing ability should play from the start as he grows into a larger build to play 4-3 DE.
2. Plausibility: Green is very likely to be available, but will the Bears have him on their board?
8. Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen
1. Rationale: Nolen lacks Graham's day-one potential. However, he otherwise has a very similar profile, dripping in explosion and speed with his true DT frame. He's the other top 3-tech option in this class. The fact that he might need a year to step into that role isn't a problem given Jarrett's presence.
2. Plausibility: Nolen will probably be available at #10.
9. Texas A&M DE Shemar Stewart
1. Rationale: Is Stewart good at football? I don't know! He's certainly not among the 10 best football players in this class right now. However, the traits are there for Stewart to be an All-Pro with a 10.00 RAS as part of his big, long build. He's a tick slower than Montez Sweat was coming out of Mississippi State, but notably more explosive. This is a bet on potential and a vote of confidence in DL Coach Jeremy Garrett.
2. Plausibility: Stewart will more likely than not be available.
10. Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan
1. Rationale: McMillan is an elite prospect with a true WR1 profile. Given the free agent dollars flowing to WRs, McMillan is a tantalizing option. But the Bears have huge investments into D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze already; can they really afford another big dip at WR?
2. Plausibility: I have no idea. McMillan could go in the top-five or last into the late teens.
11. Missouri WR Luther Burden
1. Rationale: Burden's frame is much different than McMillan's, but he's still a star prospect, especially in the current NFL with its enforcement of illegal contact and defensive holding penalties. Burden can be a different type of WR1 in Moore's mold.
2. Plausibility: I'll be very surprised if Burden comes off the board before #10. The Bears should have a shot at him.
12. Georgia DE Mykel Williams
1. Rationale: Williams looks like a plug-and-play 4-3 DE. Williams has a Sweat-like frame, very long arms (34.375"), and enough speed to be a good starter. He doesn't have great pass rushing results yet, and the fact that he's a good run defender probably isn't as helpful to the Bears as it might be to some other teams.
2. Plausibility: I expect Williams to make it to #10.
13. Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell
1. Rationale: LB positional value is way down these days and Campbell isn't a generational MIKE prospect. The value proposition is tough. However, Campbell is a great looking MIKE prospect who can play the more limited SAM role in 2025 before stepping in for Tremaine Edmunds to run the defense in 2026 onward. He's probably too much of a luxury here, but dang, he looks good.
2. Plausibility: I'll be very surprised if Campbell goes in the top nine picks.
14. Michigan DT Kenneth Grant
1. Rationale: Ugh. Kaytron Allen. Kenneth Grant running him down really ruined a Saturday for me. Grant is a freakish athlete, moving like a much smaller man despite his 340 lbs. lane-clogging frame. He might be a two-down player in the NFL, but he'd be one helluva two-down player!
2. Plausibility: It'd be a shocker to see Grant go in the top nine.
15. Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr.
1. Rationale: Banks has had a weird draft season. He has slipped over time, but I'm not certain why. He's gigantic yet moves reasonably well. However, his arms are a tick short (33.5"), he doesn't move quite as well as I'd like, and his athletic testing was merely very good across the board instead of elite. There's a ton to like here; there's just not quite enough to love for this to be the most exciting option.
2. Plausibility: Banks will probably make it to #10, but he could go a few picks earlier.
16. Ohio State LT Josh Simmons
1. Rationale: Simmons is awesome with shorter-than-ideal arms (33") and a torn patellar in October 2024. Without the injury, however, Simmons is probably in the Will Campbell tier. Factor in the injury and some time is staring at potentially great value for biting off just a bit of extra risk.
2. Plausibility: Simmons will make it to #10.
17. Georgia S Malaki Starks
1. Rationale: Starks looks great on the football field, but he really underwhelmed in shorts. I'm not a big fan of taking a S this high, especially considering the bevy of quality options available in later rounds. Adding in the issues with Starks' athletic profile pushes me away from him, but I do acknowledge that he could be a dawg in the back of the defense.
2. Plausibility: Starks will most likely make it to #10.
18. Missouri RT Armand Membou
1. Rationale: Whew. I could write a lot about Membou. The dude is a superstar athlete with crazy speed and explosion. His arms are just a bit shorter than ideal (33.5"), but the much larger concern is that Membou played all but one of his collegiate snaps at RT. The Bears simply don't need a RT. So, they could move him to RG...where they just extended Jonah Jackson. Or LT...where he has never played. There's a lot of risk with Membou.
2. Plausibility: I think it's quite likely that Membou is gone by the time the Bears pick.
19. Michigan TE Colston Loveland
1. Rationale: Loveland is really darn good. He's a tremendous athlete with explosive gameplay that shows up in games, even against top competition. He's this low, however, because he reminds me more of Cole Kmet than Tyler Warren. I don't think Loveland has the look of an in-line TE from the jump. He could get there, but so can a few of the TEs expected to be available 50 picks later.
2. Plausibility: I'll be stunned it Loveland is gone.
20. Tennessee DE James Pearce Jr.
1. Rationale: Pearce looks great. He's explosive, fast, and productive. But he's a pure 3-4 OLB given his 6'5", 243 lbs. frame. Drafting Pearce requires thinking his frame can handle another 20 lbs. and rather quickly. I just don't see it.
2. Plausibility: Pearce will probably make it to #10, but he could go earlier.
21. Michigan CB Will Johnson
1. Rationale: The top CB in this class for the last two years, Campbell struggled with injury issues in 2024, causing him to slip a bit. He still has a CB1 ceiling with an ideal frame to play in zone defenses. I think that Johnson would be a poor allocation of resources for the Bears, but the ceiling is elite.
2. Plausibility: Johnson will probably be available at #10.
22. Texas CB Jahdae Barron
1. Rationale: All of the same things about Johnson, only Barron is a bit lighter and a few inches shorter.
2. Plausibility: Barron will probably be available at #10.
23. North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton
1. Rationale: Hampton is a great RB prospect. He's big, fast, explosive, strong, and good at football. He does just about everything the Bears could want. But he doesn't appear to have skills that are so exceptional as to justify taking him at #10 over the bevy of backs who will be available a round or two later.
2. Plausibility: Hampton will be available.
24. Texas WR Matthew Golden
1. Rationale: Golden is fast. Very fast. Crazy fast. He's a productive WR and return man. But he's quite slight and probably can't play on the outside given his lack of strength. I don't think the Bears can justify a bit player at #10.
2. Plausibility: Golden will be there.
25. Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
1. Rationale: Henderson is like Hampton, only a wee bit smaller. There's probably some prospect fatigue with him given his many years of explosive production at Ohio State, so don't forget that he's always been an awesome prospect.
2. Plausibility: Henderson will be available at #10, as he should be.
26. Anyone else (South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori, Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka, Oregon DT Derrick Harmon, North Dakota State OT Grey Zabel, Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins, and Georgia LB Jalon Walker)
1. Rationale: Emmanwori is the most interesting name on this list. He could be the next Kyle Hamilton, but only if he gets much better at reading plays. Egbuka is a great WR prospect, but I don't think he's special enough to jump here. The others are all really good prospects that would be great in the 2nd round, except for Walker; Walker is a bad fit for the Bears' defense.
2. Plausibility: They'll all be available.

Not knowing how to end this article, I ran one more mock draft. Here's a final one for you to enjoy!

I promise that this is the first one I ran upon reaching the end of this article. From my keyboard to God's ears, please! (but maybe without the crazy run on OL that left me speechless)

Evaluating Chicago Bears NFL Draft Trade Proposals

In my last post, I looked at a wide range of possible NFL Draft scenarios for the Bears, focusing heavily on their options at #10 before addressing preferred targets in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

Today, we're going to look at something different: trade scenarios from #10. It's conceivable that the Bears could trade up to nab an elite player. In my eyes, that means Abdul Carter, Mason Graham, Will Campbell, or Travis Hunter. Even a modest move -- say, from #10 to #7 by attaching a 3rd rounder -- would be tough to stomach in light of all of the depth picks GM Ryan Poles has shipped out over the years, but it would be the right move for a sliding elite talent.

Short of one of those guys falling, however, we're only looking at trades down the Draft. For each proposal, we'll utilize the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, valuing a 2026 pick as the first pick in the following round to account for how front offices consider future assets.

Here are the deals I could see the Bears considering and my thoughts on them.

1. Dallas comes up for a WR or RB.
1. Proposed Trade: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Dallas for #12 (1,200), #149 (31.8), and a 2026 4th (36.5)
2. Rationale: Dallas has a big need at WR2 and many mock drafts feature Arizona's Tetairoa McMillan getting to #10. If San Francisco is licking its chops at #11, Dallas would want to jump San Francisco.
3. Grade: A-. It's a "loss" on the Jimmy Johnson chart, but more importantly, it's an opportunity for the Bears to recoup the 2026 4th traded for G Joe Thuney while ensuring that only San Francisco jumps in front of the Bears.
2. Indianapolis needs Tyler Warren.
1. Proposed Trade: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Indianapolis for #14 (1,100), #80 (190), and a 2026 4th (36.5)
2. Rationale: Indianapolis has eschewed their TE spot for a while. Warren is a star. I don't think he makes it to #10, but if he does, the Bears should take him...unless they don't want to, in which case they should capitalize on his market. Indy likely needs to jump San Francisco for Warren as George Kittle nears retirement.
3. Grade: B+. The Bears "win" this trade, but there's more risk involved. Still, if all of Hunter, Carter, Graham, Campbell, Jeanty, and Warren are gone by #10, the Bears should make the deal. This is an evergreen sentence.
3. Pittsburgh decides to reset at QB.
1. Proposed Trade: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Pittsburgh for #21 (800), #83 (175), and a 2026 2nd (265)
2. Rationale: Pittsburgh whiffed on Kenny Pickett. After one-year fliers on Russell Wilson and Justin Fields, it's time for a reset. This probably only comes into play in a more convoluted scenario. For example, if the 49ers flip with the Saints, climbing from #11 to #9, to get Warren, Pittsburgh could decide that they need to jump New Orleans in order to ensure grabbing their choice of QB. This likely requires a Shedeur Sanders slide or a massive Jaxson Dart climb.
3. Grade: D-. I do not like this kind of move unless there's a hefty premium for the drop. In this case, the Steelers aren't sufficiently desperate to pay a premium. For reference, when the Bears dealt with the Giants to move from #20 to #11 in 2021, the price was a 5th, a 2022 1st, and a 2022 4th. That's a premium.
4. Houston makes their Super Bowl push.
1. Proposed Trade: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Houston for #25 (720), #58 (320), #79 (195), and a 2026 3rd (88)
2. Rationale: Houston's Super Bowl window is open...I think. They just traded Laremy Tunsil to Washington, creating a hole at LT -- filled with Cam Robinson, for now -- but giving the Texans additional draft capital. They cash some of that in to come up for McMillan or perhaps Mizzou's Luther Burden. Unfortunately for the Texans, Tank Dell's catastrophic knee injury forces their hand.
3. Grade: C+. The premium here is relatively modest, but turning a 1st into a 1st, 2nd, and two 3rds is the kind of move that justifies the drop. I would feel a lot better if Poles could get a 2026 4th back, too, and Houston has a pair...but I'm not sure Poles can extract that fifth pick. In any event, this works well enough.
5. The Giants double down on top-10 picks to get their QB.
1. Proposed Trades: 
1. Bears trade #10 (1,300) to New York Giants for #34 (560), a 2026 1st (580), and a 2026 2nd (265)
2. Bears trade #10 (1,300) to New York Giants for #34 (560), #99 (104), a 2026 1st (580), a 2026 3rd (88), and a 2026 4th (36.5)
2. Rationale: Assuming Miami QB Cam Ward goes #1 overall to Tennessee, the Giants will end up with Hunter or Carter. If they do that, they'll need to find a way to get their QB. They could wait, or they could act with Ryan Pace-style "conviction" to come up for Sanders or Dart. The 49ers-Saints trade referenced above probably has to happen here given the need that New Orleans has in light of Derek Carr's injury. Also, given that the Giants will either be starting Russell Wilson or a rookie, their 2026 1st figures to be much more valuable than indicated above.
3. Grade: A-. The value here is too good to pass up. It's painful for the 2025 Bears to turn #10 into only #34, but if the Giants end up with the 10th pick in 2026, the aggregate value becomes a blowout for the franchise if we set aside the time value proposition (1,300 for 2,340 (560 + 1,300 + 480) or 2,254 (560 + 1,300 + 104 + 220 + 70)). That 1,000-point win is equivalent to getting #15 overall for free.

Cleveland, much like the Giants, seems unlikely to get their QB in the top-3. However, it's tough for them to justify moving up for a QB right now given Deshaun Watson's crippling contract.

In evaluating these deals, I'd do the Dallas and Indianapolis deals in a heartbeat -- assuming, again, for some reason that the Bears don't love Warren. I'd go for the Giants deal immediately, too. It's a massive deal but the Giants are a bad team in a loaded division; those 2026 picks are just too juicy. I'd be hard-pressed to make the Houston trade; it's a huge deal without ultra-juicy picks coming back. And I wouldn't touch that Pittsburgh deal with a 10-foot pole.

Chicago Bears 2025 NFL Draft Scenarios

The first round of the NFL Draft kicks off in Green Bay in less than 10 days. I've run lots of mock offseasons in advance of free agency and the Draft. But now it's time for my annual look at possible scenarios with a heavy emphasis on the Bears' day one and day two picks. This year, that group includes #10, #39, #41, and #72.

Let's start at #10. We'll only consider scenarios within the realm of possibility. So, this won't include the possibility of the Bears trading #10 for #11 and three future 1sts then drafting Penn State DE Abdul Carter at #11. There's no world where that happens. Off we go!

1. A star prospect inexplicably slips to #10 and the Bears draft him without moving up in the top-10. I've had two prospects in this bucket for months now: Carter and Michigan DT Mason Graham. Carter has foot and shoulder injuries, and Graham has 32" arms...and I don't care. Those guys both look like cornerstone DLs to me. There are two other prospects that I've confidently elevated into this group: LSU OT Will Campbell and Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter, even if Campbell becomes an LG due to his shorter arms and despite Hunter's lack of specific value to a Bears roster loaded with talent and recent investments at CB and WR. A top prospect slips every year. But to #10? That seems unlikely. It sure would be great though!
2. A desirable QB is on the board at #10 and a desperate team makes a big move up the board to get him. It's pretty easy to envision what this looks like: in 2021, the Bears traded a future 1st, future 4th, and current 5th to move from #20 to #11 to select Ohio State QB Justin Fields. The top trade partners this year appear to be Pittsburgh (#21), Los Angeles Rams (#26), Cleveland (#33), New York Giants (#34), and Tennessee (#35). With some squinting, its possible to see Seattle (#18) getting involved if they're not certain about Sam Darnold (they can get out of his deal after 2025 if things go sideways) and even New Orleans (#40) or the New York Jets (#42) if they go another direction at #9 and #7 respectively. It's highly unlikely that Miami QB Cam Ward gets to #10, but Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders or Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart could be there. While Pittsburgh is a popular mock trade target, I don't see the Steelers as particularly likely. Instead, making a deal with a poorly-run franchise like Cleveland, the New York Giants, or Tennessee to accumulate additional current and/or future picks would be great. I'm partial to something like the following using the Jimmy Johnson trade chart if Cleveland opts for a non-QB at #2: Bears trade #10 (1,300) to Cleveland for #33 (580), #67 (255), and a 2026 1st (580 - valued as top pick in 2nd round).
3. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty gets to #10. I really like Jeanty. He played great against Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl, fumbles notwithstanding. I liked watching his season before he played the Nittany Lions, and watching him generate average production despite his average depth of contact being 0.8 yards behind the line of scrimmage was wildly impressive. Jeanty is the focal point of whatever offense he joins and he'd surely take a ton of pressure off of QB Caleb Williams.
4. Penn State TE Tyler Warren gets to #10. Warren is so fun. He's a Swiss Army knife who is also a great in-line TE. Given the centrality of the TE to Ben Johnson's offense, Warren's physical profile, Warren's immense production in 2024, and my affection for the long-time Nittany Lion, I'd be very happy with this outcome.
5. Make a modest trade down to accumulate an additional mid-round pick or two, then nab a good player. There are a good number of options here. In order of preference, I'd like:
1. Marshall DE Mike Green. Green got to the Senior Bowl with something to prove. He left the Senior Bowl early after immediately proving it. His 17 sacks were no fluke. Although just 6'3", 250 lbs., he's explosive and agile. If he can get to 260 lbs., he should start after playing a situational role early in his career.
2. Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen. Nolen looks like the 3-technique DT that this defense needs...and might have in Grady Jarrett? Despite the financial investment in Jarrett, it still seems like the best path ahead involves a high-upside prospect in the 4th DT role behind Jarrett, Gervon Dexter, and Andrew Billings. Plus, drafting another DT enables the Bears to cut Chris Williams and recoup his cap hit. Nolen is plenty quick and extremely powerful, given him a chance to develop into an interior pass rushing menace.
3. Texas A&M DE Shemar Stewart. Stewart is the ultimate Draft Rorschach test. Is he the underwhelming Edge with only two sacks and mediocre grades in 2024? Or is he the 6'5", 285 lbs. (but 267 lbs. at the Combine) behemoth who posted a perfect 10.00 RAS fueled by a 40" vertical, 10'11" broad jump, and 4.59 40 with 34.13" arms, dripping with untapped potential? I don't know. I do know that I'll be excited if the Bears nab Stewart, in part because he can slide into a DE3 timeshare with 2024 draftee Austin Booker where Booker rushes the passer and Stewart plays the run while he develops. Stewart would be ideal in the 2nd.
4. Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan. McMillan is the best prospect in this grouping. McMillan is huge (6'4", 220 lbs.), plenty fast, highly productive, and fluid. So why is he down here? The Bears already have big investments in D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze.
5. Mizzou WR Luther Burden. Burden has a different body than McMillan, but he's also extremely productive with even better athleticism. Burden looks like D.J. Moore and Terry McLaurin. It's not hard to envision him being a star in the slot.
6. Georgia DE Mykel Williams. Williams has slipped a bit in recent weeks, but I don't get it, especially for the Bears. Williams has great size at 6'5", 260 lbs. and, importantly, 34.375" arms. Despite his hefty size, Williams ran his 40 in under 4.70 seconds. Williams is already a good run defender, but drafting him early is a bet on his characteristics and his potential future as a pass rusher.
7. Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell. Campbell doesn't present great value her as an off-ball LB, but he has all of the markings of a long-term MIKE LB fit, something that the Bears would do well to find this year in advance of a potential cut of current MIKE Tremaine Edmunds after the season.
8. Michigan DT Kenneth Grant. Grant moves unreasonably well for someone tipping the scales at 340 lbs. He's a true nose tackle, but he is quick enough to play the nose in a 4-3. He's probably a two-down player, but he's a guy with a chance to be a great two-down player.
9. Texas LT Kelvin Banks Jr. Banks is a good prospect in just about every respect, save for his less-than-ideal 33.5" arms. For reference, current RT Darnell Wright has 33.75" arms while 2024 draftee Kiran Amegadjie has 36.125" arms. Banks moves reasonably well, but doesn't appear to have any elite athletic trait. He also probably needs to sit for a year. I like plenty of the options in the 2nd or 3rd round just as much, so Banks would be a bit disappointing.
10. Ohio State LT Josh Simmons. Simmons is a great athlete with two big knocks against him: 33" arms and a torn patellar in October 2024. He probably needs a redshirt year, something that the Bears probably cannot afford when trying to win in 2025.
11. Georgia S Malaki Starks. Starks had really poor athletic testing at the Combine for an elite prospect (5.29 RAS). So did some other really productive safeties like Brian Branch, Xavier McKinney, and Earl Thomas. However, those poor performances caused those players to drop, so the early teens feel early for Starks, even though he possesses a lot of the same leadership traits as current S Jaquan Brisker.
12. Mizzou RT Armand Membou. Membou is tricky. He earned his spot in this section by virtue of his outrageous explosion and speed at 332 lbs.! However, his 33.5" arms and experience playing exclusively RT in college give me pause. Could he be a franchise LT or an elite RG? Maybe! But if he's truly best cast as a RT, he doesn't fit the Bears.
6. Make a modest trade up for a star. If the Bears are able to make a modest deal to move up for one of Carter, Graham, Hunter, or Campbell -- likely dealing a 3rd or later to move up to something in the 5th-8th range -- I'll take it. This is especially true if the deal is for Carter or Graham.
7. Stay at 10 and draft a solid fit. Drafting someone in the group at #5 above, but without accumulating an extra pick or two in the process. A fine result. Arguably the most likely outcome.
8. Make a modest trade down for a guy who isn't a good fit or is overdrafted. There are five main guys that stand out here: Michigan TE Colston Loveland, Tennessee DE James Pearce Jr., Michigan CB Will Johnson, Texas CB Jahdae Barron, and Texas WR Matthew Golden. Loveland is an excellent TE prospect, but he's more of a slot TE at this point, not the complete TE/offensive weapon that Warren is. Pearce looks alarmingly like Leonard Floyd, measuring at 6'5", 243 lbs.: long, rangy, and ill-suited to play DE in a 4-3. Johnson is a pure cover corner with injury concerns, but the bigger issue for him is the presence of Jaylon Johnson, Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, and Terell Smith; the Bears have already made huge investments at CB. Same issue for Barron, who I like a bit more than Johnson and who I loved when he was pegged as a 2nd rounder a few months ago. Finally, Golden is insanely fast (4.29 40), but he's undersized and feels like a late 1st. However, trading down first to accumulate additional draft capital softens the blow with any of these guys.
1. If the Bears decide that Tyrique Stevenson can't stick around and they're able to get back a good pick for Stevenson (3rd or higher), drafting a CB here makes more sense, even if I'd much prefer a fat guy.
9. Omarion Hampton. Hampton deserves his own category. Hampton is a great RB prospect: his athletic testing was elite (9.70 RAS), save for a mediocre shuttle score. He's incredibly explosive and fast. But he's a running back who isn't Jeanty. Drafting Hampton -- or any of the other non-Jeanty RBs like Ohio State's Treveyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, Tennessee's Dylan Sampson, or Iowa's Kaleb Johnson, all of whom tested well or exceptionally well -- at #10 would be a terrible allocation of resources. If Hampton is the guy, the Bears need to trade down at least eight spots first.
10. Make a big move for a star. Coming away with one of Carter, Graham, Hunter, or Campbell would be great...but not at an astronomical cost. Some might look at the Bears' pair of 2nd round picks and think that one should be utilized to move from #10 into the top five to find a difference maker. That misses the mark. Ryan Poles has made a bevy of pick-for-player trades that largely flopped but that undeniably cost the team a chunk of its depth. The Bears need picks. Speaking of those pick-for-player deals, consider that even those some a reasonable in a vacuum, the shear volume necessitates hoarding picks for a while:
1. #32 overall to Pittsburgh for WR Chase Claypool in 2022 (yikes!)
2. #184 in 2024 to Miami for G Dan Fenney (meh)
3. #40 in 2024 to Washington for DE Montez Sweat (OK)
4. #144 in 2024 to Buffalo for C Ryan Bates (yikes)
5. #110 in 2024 to Los Angeles Chargers for WR Keenan Allen (OK)
6. 2025 6th to Seattle for DE Darrell Taylor
7. 2025 6th to Cleveland for DT Chris Williams
8. 2025 6th to Los Angeles Rams for G Jonah Jackson (yuck!)
9. 2026 4th to Kansas City for G Joe Thuney (good)
11. Move up for Jeanty or Warren. This is the kind of move that Ryan Pace loved to make, acting with "conviction." Conviction resulted in Pace emptying the cupboard to get his guys without much payoff.
12. Stay at 10 and wildly overdraft someone who isn't a fit or isn't good enough to go #10. This includes the guys in scenario #8 above, all of the non-Jeanty RBs, and anyone else not mentioned yet.
13. Move up for the wrong guy. Paying a premium to move up has devastating consequences. Just ask anyone who wears a Mitchell Trubisky jersey to Soldier Field.

The scenarios for the 2nd rounders at #39 and #41, as well as the 3rd rounder at #72, are too numerous to address in full. So, instead, I'll address the players I like and don't like at those spots, recognizing that I've likely mentioned players above that make it to #39 and I'll address players at #39 and #41 that make it to #72. The Draft is unpredictable!

1. Guys I like at #39 and #41.
1. Arkansas DE Landon Jackson. If Jackson was a bit more productive, he'd be a top-20 pick. His athleticism is elite (9.78 RAS) driven by explosion and speed, and his 6'6", 264 lbs. frame is NFL-ready at DE with 33.25" arms. Jackson can defend the run now while developing his pass rushing arsenal.
2. North Dakota State OL Grey Zabel. Zabel is a DAWG. His arms are 32". If they were 33.5", he'd be the second-best OL in this class. If he's here, drafting him is the right choice. He's the top interior OL reserve in 2025 and steps into Thuney's job in 2026, becoming the leader of the OL for a decade.
3. Oregon DT Derrick Harmon. Harmon is a great 3-tech prospect with great size, great speed, long arms (34.38"), and strong production at Oregon.
4. Iowa State WR Jayden Higgins. He should be a 1st. Higgins is good at football, then blew the doors off of the Combine with a 9.63 RAS fueled by elite explosion scores with his beefy 6'4", 214 lbs. frame.
5. Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka. After completing a 14-year career at Ohio State, Egbuka finally makes his way to the NFL. He's a great prospect. He has average NFL WR size and fantastic athletic traits complemented by great production for years. He's like a 1st rounder.
6. Minnesota LT Aireontae Ersery. I don't understand why Ersery isn't a 1st rounder. He's gigantic at 6'6", 331 lbs., he's strong, he's fast, and he's explosive. His 33.13" arms are a tick short, but I watched him given Penn State's DEs the business in November; nobody else did that in 2024.
7. Ohio State DE JT Tuimoloau. JTT is suffering from serious prospect fatigue. He wasn't as productive rushing the passer as many expected, but his athletic profile screams day one starter in the NFL and his flashes have been incredibly impressive. He's still just 22, so there's a lot to like here. His 34.875" arms are intriguing.
8. Toledo DT Darius Alexander. Alexander has the idyllic 3-technique package at 6'3", 305 lbs. with great speed and explosion. His 9.16 RAS with 34" arms portends a disruptive interior force if he can make the jump from the MAC to the NFL.
9. Texas A&M DE Nic Scourton. The Combine hurt Scourton. He ran well (4.70 40), but his height and weight knocked him down Draft boards, especially his 257 lbs. weigh-in in light of a 285 lbs. listed weight. His 33" arms are solid. He's a plug-and-play three-down DE after a highly productive career at Purdue and A&M. He's probably never a star, but at just 20, he has a long runway.
10. Oregon LT Josh Conerly Jr. Conerly probably isn't ready to anchor against NFL pass rushers yet, but he moves really well in the run game and held up surprisingly well against Carter. His 33.5" arms are adequate. He'd be good value here.
11. Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr. Winston would've been a reasonably high 1st rounder in 2024. But because he was a sophomore, he returned to Penn State for his junior season and tore his ACL five quarters into the year. I could see him going anywhere from 25th to 85th as a result. He's a centerpiece player if the knee is healthy and a 4.50 40 at his Pro Day suggests that it is.
12. East Carolina CB Shavon Revel. Revel is tall, long, and fast. A September ACL tear pushes him into this zone, but he'd be great value here. Stevenson would be on the way out if Revel came in.
13. South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori. Emmanwori is probably going in the second half of the 1st round after an outrageous Combine saw him post a 10.00 RAS, too. Everything is elite. However, Emmanwori looks like he's watching, then reacting, far too often. He has the athleticism to make a bunch of plays in spite of this. He'd be fine here.
14. South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders. I like Sanders. I used to love him. But the more I watched him, the less explosion I saw. It's there. It's good. But it's not elite despite him only weighing 290 lbs.
15. Ohio State LG Donovan Jackson. Jackson isn't an LT, but he's a darn good LG prospect.
16. Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen. I really like Umanmielen's film. I think he's a great football player. I think there's an argument for him in the 1st. But at 6'4", 244 lbs., he's probably too small to play 4-3 DE. If the Bears are convinced that he can pack on 15 lbs., he'd jump up in the Zabel-Harmon tier. I think he's still worth it here as a situational pass rusher; he's that good.
17. Notre Dame S Xavier Watts. Watts is good at everything. He'd be a solid citizen in the back of the secondary. He's not the most exciting prospect to me, though.
18. All of the guys I mentioned liking above. Overdrafted in the 1st doesn't apply to the 2nd. For clarity, I like the RBs in the following order: Hampton (elite athlete and explosive), Sampson (undersized but explosive), Judkins (great), Henderson (great), Arizona State's Cam Skattebo (dawg), and Johnson (huge but less explosive).
2. Guys I don't like at #39 and #41 (ranging from OK to BARF)
1. Ohio State DT Tyleik Williams. What if Kenneth Grant couldn't get upfield? He'd be fine, I guess, but he doesn't move the needle much.
2. Ohio State DE Jack Sawyer. Sawyer has been good for a long time. He's fast, his size checks out, and he was productive against a tough schedule. So why is he here? 31.75" arms. That's incredibly short for an NFL DE. For reference, current DEs Montez Sweat (35.75"), Dayo Odeyingbo (35.25"), and Austin Booker (33.875") show what the Bears want. 
3. Tennessee DT Omar Norman-Lott. Norman-Lott looks fine, but he doesn't look particularly twitchy to my eyes.
4. Georgia LB Jalon Walker. Walker is an LB for the Bears. He's going to end up as a 3-4 OLB for someone else.
5. Alabama G Tyler Booker. A terrible fit for the Bears' zone rushing attack. Booker is a mauler. I'm not sure I'd even want him at #148.
6. Boston College DE Donovan Ezeiruaku. Also a 3-4 OLB.

1. Guys I like at #72.
1. West Virginia LT Wyatt Milum. Milum is a G in the NFL with his 32.13" arms. But he's awesome. A cornerstone piece in the interior.
2. Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea. Savaiinaea is faster than Milum with 33.88" arms. He's a real LT prospect who would also look great at G.
3. Utah State WR Jalen Royals. One of my favorite prospects, Royals has a superb first step and 4.42 speed.
4. Washington State WR Kyle Williams. Another one of my favorite prospects, Williams has a superb first step and 4.40 speed.
5. Georgia G Tate Ratledge. The story on Ratledge was great player, OK athleticism. Then he posted a 9.96 RAS with elite speed, explosion, and agility. I don't understand why he is ranked this low.
6. Miami TE Elijah Arroyo. Arroyo can fly. He doesn't look like a real blocker yet, but for now, the Bears could settle for him embarrassing NFL safeties with his speed.
7. South Carolina LB Demetrius Knight Jr. Knight is old (24). Otherwise, he'd be a much better prospect. He'd be a good SAM as a rookie before sliding inside.
8. Texas DT Alfred Collins. I was sky-high on Collins earlier. But now, this is the right spot for him. He's massive but truly a nose with limited explosion and speed who is already 24. Thankfully the Draft wasn't in February.
9. Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr. Fannin tormented Tom Allen's defense in State College last year, but then he kept doing it all year to every other opponent, too. He's a very good athlete, but Fannin weighed in at just 6'3", 241 lbs. at the Combine. That doesn't work. The hope here is that a redshirt year can help him fill out his frame for the NFL.
10. LSU TE Mason Taylor. Similar to Arroyo but a bit worse across the board.
11. UCLA LB Carson Schwesinger. Schwesinger came out of nowhere in 2024. If he can get big enough to be a MIKE, he could be a 2nd. As WILL only, I don't want the Bears to draft him here.
12. LSU DE Bradyn Swinson. Swinson is a decent prospect with a great first step. He does look like a better 3-4 fit.

There are waaaaaaaay too many guys to address options at #148, so I'll just say that I really like the following: Penn State S Jaylen Reed, Arkansas WR Isaac TeSlaa, Georgia RB Trevor Etienne, Kansas State CB Jacob Parrish (despite his 5'9" frame), Notre Dame TE Mitchell Evans, Kentucky DT Deone Walker, and especially Illinois WR Pat Bryant.

Before getting to two mock drafts, a final comment: if the Bears do draft a new RB, it'd be great to unload D'Andre Swift via trade. I suspect that his value is minimal -- maybe a 5th or even a late pick swap -- but clearing out the cap space would be quite helpful.

Mock Draft - No Trades

Using the PFF mock draft tool, here goes!

• #10: Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen
• #39: North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton
• #41: North Dakota State G Grey Zabel
• #72: Utah State WR Jalen Royals
• #148: Ohio State S Jordan Hancock
• #233: Syracuse DE Fadil Diggs
• #240: Georgia LB Smael Mondon Jr.

All of the useful DEs got drafted earlier than expected. I should've gone with Green in the first.

Mock Draft - Trade Away!

My preferred method, obviously. Let's do it!

• #10: TRADED to Houston along with a 2026 6th for #25, #58, #79, and a 2026 2nd
• #25: Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen (yes, he got to #25)
• #39: Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka
• #41: Arkansas DE Landon Jackson
• #58: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
• #72: Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson
• #79: Arizona LT Jonah Savaiinaea
• #148: Illinois WR Pat Bryant
• #233: UTSA CB Zah Frazier
• #240: Wisconsin S Hunter Wohler

That one trade really couldn't have worked out better. The odds of Nolen getting to #25 seem awfully low, but even if he didn't get there, the next three picks are great options at #25: Loveland, Emmanwori, and Stewart. And Darius Alexander made it to #43, so the DT room still would've found a nice prospect.