Previewing Season One for Matt Campbell at Penn State

Boy, this feels weird. I watched a long interview that Josh Pate had with James Franklin recently. It was bizarre seeing Franklin wearing Virginia Tech maroon and orange and discussing his time at Penn State in the past tense. It simply wasn't that long ago that #3 Penn State held the lead over #6 Oregon in overtime with the Ducks facing a fourth down to potentially end the game. We all know what happened next: Oregon scored, then scored again, then Drew Allar threw a dart at Dillon Thienemann, then Penn State tried to sleepwalk through a game against UCLA at the Rose Bowl, then Allar's ankle exploded at the end of a brutal home loss to Northwestern that spelled the end of Franklin's tenure.

Since then, it has truly been a rollercoaster. On the negative side, the 2026 and 2027 recruiting classes vanished, AD Pat Kraft bungled the search for Franklin's successor, and numerous elite-level recruits exited via the Transfer Portal, gutting the roster. On the plus side, Iowa State's Matt Campbell fell into Kraft's lap as the new head coach, Franklin's insatiable appetite to continue coaching saved the football program something like $40M when he settled his buyout to take the VT job, Campbell brought two dozen experienced starters with him from Ames, and Campbell miraculously nabbed a pair of 4* DEs in the 2026 recruiting class, securing the pledge of Elijah Reeder and keeping Jackson Ford in the fold.

Campbell's 2027 class looks underwhelming with only seven 4* verbals to date, but it's hard to judge him too harshly in that respect. He needs to coach some games in State College while recruiting talent simultaneously to judge his recruiting prowess, meaning that the Class of 2028 will be the primary evaulation tool.

Thankfully, the 2026 season happens first. And it's going to be a wild ride. Here's a look at the roster followed by a season prediction.

OFFENSE

Campbell brought offensive coordintor Taylor Mouser with him from Iowa State. Mouser's story is hilarious in much the same way that Eric Murphy's story is hilarious in Entourage. Mouser was working at a Little Ceasar's in Arizona when Campbell offered him a graduate assistant gig at Toledo back in 2015, and Mouser has been attached to Campbell ever since. The Iowa State tight end room speaks highly of Mouser's abilities as a coach, and he'll have the chance to show that he is a talent on the rise with the increased talent level awaiting him in State College.

Quarterbacks

Full disclosure: I wish that Ethan Grunkemeyer was still at Penn State. Instead, longtime Iowa State QB Rocco Becht will start for the Nittany Lions. When he starts against Marshall, it'll be his 40th collegiate start. Becht has a limited ceiling, but as Penn State fans know, ceiling isn't everything: teams led by Trace McSorley and Sean Clifford were more productive than teams led by Christian Hackenberg and Drew Allar despite their 5* pedigrees. There is a ton of pressure on Becht to produce, but even more pressure on him to stay healthy. His backups are Division III transfer SR Connor Barry and RS FR Alex Manske, himself an ISU transfer returning from injury for fall camp. If Becht goes down, the season likely goes down with him.

I expect that Penn State's 2027 starter isn't currently on the roster. Ugh. Welcome to the new world of college football.

Running Backs

This room looks...fine. ISU transfer Carson Hansen reminds me of Akeel Lynch, a solid but unspectacular back. Ohio State transfer James Peoples may be a tick more explosive, but he's hardly a top back. SO Quinton Martin Jr. is the home run threat, so the hope is that the staff finds touches for him. Once again, the Portal will factor into the 2027 RB room.

Wide Receivers

This group is tougher to read. Experienced ISU transfers Chase Sowell and Brett Eskildsen should lead the way, but it's SO Koby Howard that offers the big-play ability. The WR room has been underwhelming for many years now. Expect that to continue...unless Campbell's black magic with WRs came with him to State College. His work with prior collegiate receivers is very exciting.

Tight Ends

This room looks awfully similar to what it has been in recent years. Even with Luke Reynolds following Franklin to Blacksburg, ISU transfers Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle are hulking athletes and holdover Andrew Rappleyea offers a third big-time athlete in the group. Expect a lot of 12 and even some 13 personnel. All three should hear their names called in the next two NFL Drafts.

Offensive Line

This isn't the best offensive line that Penn State has had in recent years, but this should be a strong group with the chance to be among the best groups in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions return a pair of starters on the right side with Anthony Donkoh at RT and Cooper Cousins at RG. RS FR Malachi Goodman grabbed the LT job early and didn't let it go. He follows in a long line of top LT prospects in State College. The Portal filled the spots next to him with RS JR Trevor Buhr coming from ISU an C Brock Riker arriving from Texas State. The first unit should be good and has a chance to be very good.

Ah, but the depth. The depth is poor. The second-team line -- going left-to-right, that's Owen Aliciene, Will Tompkins, Dom Rulli, Chimdy Onoh, and Garrett Sexton -- has almost no experinece whatsoever and underwhelming recruiting profiles compared to prior versions of the Nittany OL.

The Penn State offense can probably absord one injury. Two or more will be devastating.

Defensive Line

Yikes. My team-building philosophy isn't complicated: if you dominate up front, you'll probably win. Recent top-level PSU teams have been driven by elite offensive and defensive lines. You can't discuss recent squads without discussing the likes of Micah Parsons, Abdul Carter, and Dani Dennis-Sutton. There's only one player on the entire team with that kind of ceiling: RS SO DE Max Granville, who is returning from a summer 2025 injury that wiped out his last year. He'll line up behind SO Yvan Kemajou and RS SO Ike Ezeogu. Is a three-man rotation enough at DE? Simply put, no. So, Penn State needs (i) tremendous health, and (ii) the emergence of an unexpected player or two at DE.

The picture is even darker at DT. Campbell hammered the Portal such that his top three DTs are transfers: RS SR Keanu Williams, RS SR Siale Taupaki, and RS SO Armstrong Nnodim. None of them have huge ceilings. Penn State needs something unexpected here, but it's more likely that Ford, Liam Andrews, or Lavar Arrington II pops at DE.

Linebackers

Unlike on the DL, there is both ceiling and depth here led by stalwart Tony Rojas and ISU transfer Kooper Ebel. They'll be backed up by Caleb Bacon and Cael Brezina. If Alex Tatsch successfully returns from injury, one or more LB may need to push for reps at DE to get on the field.

Secondary

There are enough bodies here to feel really good about this group. Outside, Audavion Collins and Daryus Dixon lead the way with Josh Johnson and Jahmir Joseph behind them. In the slot, Zion Tracy should be a plus full-time player. The safety depth isn't quite as developed, but Jeremiah Cooper is back from injury, Marcus Neal looks like a star in the making, and Jamison Patton and Vaboue Toure offer experienced depth.

Specialists

Ryan Barker is back to handle the kicking after a strong 2025. Transfer Nathan Tiyce should handle the punting. Tiyce will have a hard time matching up with the elite punters before him, but I don't know enough about him to know whether he has the leg to do so.

Overall Thoughts

It's very hard to get a good feel for this team. By my count, Penn State lost 45 players via the Transfer Portal while adding 38. That's a lot of turnover. The number of new faces should make Campbell putting his stamp on the roster even tougher, though it helps that he brought so many of those faces with him.

In my view, this team has a limited ceiling in large part because the OL and DL look good, not elite, and seriously lack depth. There don't appear to be any gamebreakers in the WR or RB rooms, so Penn State's path to success will be fueled by playing dependable complementary football instead of playmaking football. That's a risky proposition against top opponents. Thankfully...

Schedule

My. God. This isn't supposed to be able to happen in the Big Ten in 2026. No Ohio State. No Oregon. No Indiana. That's three of the top-five teams in Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings heading into the season. The only other Big Ten team to avoid the conference's big three is Wisconsin, but the Badgers open their season against #3 Notre Dame. Penn State's non-conference schedule is an abomination and the conference schedule is about as easy as it can get in 2026.

Unfortunately, I don't think that Campbell and his roster will be ready to attack this roster as effectively as, say, the 2019 or 2024 Penn State teams would have. And, unfortunately, it's a one-year-only blip: Penn State travels to Oregon and Indiana in 2027 and hosts all three of Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State in 2028. Those teams could be considerably better than the 2026 squad, but they face much tougher roads to the postseason by virtue of their brutal schedules.

Back to 2026. I looked at advance Vegas odds once a few weeks ago, but I don't remember what they said. So, here's a walk through the schedule with my take on Nittany's win expectancy across the contests:

• Sep 5 vs Marshall: 99%
• This should be a cakewalk with an amped-up and focused PSU team.
• Sep 12 @ Temple: 98%
• Incredible that this is a true road game. Should still be a clear victory.
• Sep 19 vs Buffalo: 99%
• Avoiding a noon kick trap game is the only test here.
• Sep 26 vs Wisconsin: 80%
• Luke Fickell must be desperate in Madison. His defense looks OK but the offense looks awful. This has 20-6 slugfest written all over it. I expect that Iowa @ Michigan gets the Big Noon slot while Oregon @ USC gets a big evening time slot, so this game could be the premium Big Ten game in the 3:30pm slot.
• Oct 2 @ Northwestern: 65%
• A Friday road trip to another time zone against a team opening their new fancy stadium? Yikes! I expect that Northwestern will pull out all of the stops for this one. This presents a big test for Campbell...
• Oct 10 vs USC: 60%
• ...but not as big of a test as this one! This should be the Whiteout. Much like the Oregon Whiteout last year, Penn State gets a West Coast team traveling 2,000 miles for a college football game. It should be a massive advantage. And USC hasn't been nearly as good as Oregon in recent years. Alas, Penn State doesn't look nearly as good as recent Penn State teams either. It's entirely possible that USC is favored by the time this game rolls around. The Trojans will have played consecutive home games against Oregon and Washington before this contest, so they could be beat up.
• Oct 17 @ Michigan: 5%
• Until proven otherwise, Penn State will lose at the Big House. Deeper analysis suggests that this should be a close game. But Paterno struggled in Ann Arbor and Franklin never won a trip there (I don't count the 2020 exhibitions), getting blown out every time. Campbell has to do it.
• Oct 31 vs Purdue: 95%
• Purdue is in a bad spot at the bottom of the Big Ten. Coming off of a bye, Penn State should be able to blow out the Boilermakers.
• Nov 7 @ Washington: 35%
• Demond Williams is very good and should be a problem for many opponents this year, especially teams traveling 2,000 miles to play the Huskies. I expect this to be a close game that has significant bearing on where Penn State plays in January, if at all.
• Nov 14 vs Minnesota: 80%
• I feel good about this one. If this game was on the road? Yikes. But at home, I feel good.
• Nov 21 vs Rutgers: 90%
• Greg Schiano has made Rutgers into a tough out again. Also, Penn State is 33-2 all-time against the Scarlet Knights, winning 18 straight contests.
• Nov 28 @ Maryland: 85%
• Maryland looks OK from a talent perspective, but Penn State should be rolling here whereas Maryland will return home from a trip to the Coliseum that probably won't be very fun.

Adding up those percentages yields 8.91 wins, so let's call that 9-3. Frankly, 9-3 would be a disappointing season against this schedule. If Campbell gets this team to 10 wins, they probably have a 30% chance of making the CFP; the schedule is poor but the Committee tends to like teams with double-digit wins.

If things go well, it'll be because...

1. Becht stays healthy all year. (or, you know, Barry is the 2026 Trindad Chambliss)
2. The beefy Penn State DL that struggles to generate pass rush devours opposing rushing attacks, keeping Penn State in favorable spots against run-heavy teams like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Purdue.
3. One or more of Granville, Ford, and Arrington forces his way into a big role thanks to prodigious pass rush production.
4. Mouser leans into the offensive skill position players on his roster by either (i) featuring the TEs heavily, or (ii) getting a breakout performance from Howard or one of the younger WRs.

If things go poorly, it'll be because...

1. Becht gets hurt. Duh.
2. The OL proves to be merely solid instead of plus turning the easier-looking games into slogs.
3. Nobody emerges at WR forcing the offense through the RBs and TEs exclusively; Penn State has already tried this unsuccessfully in recent years.
4. The team stumbles early against Wisconsin or Northwestern, causing things to snowball the wrong way. Obviously a stumble against an earlier opponent would be disastrous, not just poor.

I'm in a weird spot as a fan. I'm low on this Penn State team, feeling like they're probably an 8-4 squad. That's either because they have underwhelming talent at key spots -- namely DT, DE, and WR -- or because there's a ton of unknowns in light of the coaching changes and Portal activity. Obviously I'm hoping for option #2. The schedule certainly sets up to give this team a chance for a special regular season.

In the end, here's what I see:

• Gloomy: 6-6 (it's a real slog)
• Rosy: 11-1 (avoid the traps, split the trips to Ann Arbor and Seattle, run the table at home)
• Expectation: 9-3 (losses to USC, Michigan, and Washington)
• Going 9-3 against this schedule likely renders PSU as the 8th best team in the Big Ten behind Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Washington, Michigan, USC, and Iowa, landing in the same tier as Nebraska and Illinois. Bleh.

An 11-1 Penn State team likely hosts a first round CFP game. A 9-3 team has a 0% chance of making the CFP, instead settling for a January trip to Florida.

Here's hoping for some more wins in 2026 than in 2025!