Musings on the Bears Win in Jersey

As my dad and I watched Dan Carpenter's chip shot sail through the south endzone uprights to kill the 2014 Bears season before it even really began, I knew what was coming: a Bears team that lost at home to Buffalo was surely headed for embarrassment in the Bay Area before a tough matchup in primetime on the opposite coast in Week 3. We'd be limping home at 0-3 just in time for the hated Packers to put the proverbial nail in our coffin. I was sick.

Through 27 1/2 minutes in Santa Clara, the narrative held: the Bears had moved the ball a total of eight yards on their first six possessions en route to a 17-0 deficit that was about to turn into a laugher in the host's housewarming party. Then the narrative got flipped on its head. The Bears covered 80, 80, 3, and 42 yards on their remaining possessions while amassing four touchdowns prior to kneeling out a 28-20 win. The run continued over the first 16 minutes on the east coast as Ryan Mundy's pick-six, Ahmad Dixon's excellent recover of a muffed punt, a short 40-yard touchdown drive, and a 15-play, 79-yard field goal drive built a 17-3 lead that the Bears caressed for the next three quarters on their way to a 27-19 victory and a stunning 2-1 start to the campaign.

With the predicted narrative so squarely on its head, here are some takeaways from the Jets game and some general thoughts about the team.

1. Even in the NFL, players often miss what we would term "easy plays" because football is hard. With the Bears pinned back near their own endzone facing a third-and-long play, Jay Cutler decided to take a shot down the sideline to his favorite target, a hobbled Brandon Marshall. The ball was hit as it left his hand and it floated into the hands of Jets cornerback Antonio Allen...who embarrassingly dropped the easy interception around the Bears 35. The field position shift was minimal - Bears punter Patrick O'Donnell's punt was fair caught at the Chicago 44 and a terrible (correctly called) personal foul gave New York possession at the Chicago 29 - but the play stood out nonetheless. Similarly, on the Jets final drive of the game, quarterback Geno Smith threw a spiral directly to Bears linebacker Jon Bostic. Bostic couldn't handle the ball initially, but he managed to drop the ball right into his gut...where he also miraculously couldn't corral the ball despite being all alone in the middle of the field. The Jets drove into the redzone before stalling out (more on that in a bit). Had Bostic secured the interception, the Bears would have likely forced the Jets out of their timeouts, run down the clock, and gone up 11 with two minutes left after another Robbie Gould field goal, icing the game. Even if it should be easy, especially for professionals, catching the ball is sometimes still quite difficult.

2. Speaking of Bostic, he played his best game as a Bear. Bostic routinely overran plays last year as he filled in as the middle linebacker following D.J. Williams' season-ending pectoral injury. Bostic's athleticism was clear, but so was his rawness. Bostic made progress heading into his sophomore campaign, and Shea McClellin's hand injury suffered in practice last week created an opening for Bostic to upgrade from a sub package player to an every down linebacker. Bostic stayed on the field for nearly every play of the game, getting plenty of repetitions in the nickel defense as the complementary linebacker to Lance Briggs. He made plays in the running game, ran down a scrambling Smith a handful of times, and positioned himself well to seal the game. There's clearly more room for growth, but last night we got to see the player in whom Phil Emery invested a second-round draft pick. With Williams looking slow, Bostic's emergence is critical for the defense.

3. Many of the most significant calls by the officials went the Bears' way last night, although it's not as though every big call went for the visitors. The first big call - a 33-yard pass interference call on Jets corner Darrin Walls - gave the Bears a first-and-goal that they cashed in with Martellus Bennett's first score of the game. On the play, Alshon Jeffery beat Walls streaking down the right sideline but had to slow down to make an attempt at an underthrown Jay Cutler pass. On review, it was clear that Jeffery grabbed hold of Walls' arm with Walls initiating no contact with Alshon. Live, it was clear that Alshon had position on Walls and that Alshon's attempt to reach back to make a play on the ball was impeded by Walls' presence. Though it was a very poor call, it did reaffirm two largely universal truths: it pays to have position and it pays to have size on your side as the much larger Jeffery has the benefit of the doubt when it comes to his ability to reach back for a ball.

The second huge call was the officials ruling that Jay Cutler was down prior to fumbling after a hit by David Harris in the second quarter, a fumble that was scooped up after the whistle and returned for a touchdown by the Jets. Upon review, the ball clearly slipped out of Cutler's hands on his way to the ground although his hands remained within an inch or two of the ball all the way down. Live, it appeared as though his body slamming into the ground created the force that caused the ball to pop out. This was another poor call that helped the Bears immensely, although most avid football watchers would admit that it appeared as though the ground caused the fumble on first watch.

The third poor call went against Chicago, although it wasn't the fault of a live decision. Facing 4th-and-3 at their own 27 on the final drive, the Jets threw a 2 1/2 yard pass to tight end Jace Amaro. Bostic read the play beautifully, forced Amaro back to the ball, and dropped him immediately upon catching the ball, just shy of the 30-yard-line. Given that the drive began with a touchback, the line to gain was hardly at issue. Upon review, the ball hits the ground in Amaro's hands and appears to be just short of the 30. Much like Bostic's near-interception, a ruling that Amaro was short would have effectively iced the game. Instead, after a lengthy review, referee Jerome Borger determined that the play stood - it was not confirmed - and the Jets had life. This was clearly the least egregious error - it was a close play - but video reviews should be quite conclusive at this point and the combination of angles appeared to show Amaro short.

The fourth and final poor call went against the Bears as well. On the Jets' final drive, Smith threw the ball away on 2nd-and-9 at the Chicago 19 under pressure from Willie Young. However, the back judge called Bostic for defensive holding, giving New York a fresh set of downs from the 14 instead of a 3rd-and-long at the 19. While Bostic's hands were on the tight end, it was a level of contact that is almost never flagged, particularly with one minute left in a tight game. That call didn't end up hurting the Bears on the scoreboard although it certainly made the final red zone stand much tougher.

I could go through additional calls and non-calls - the block-in-the-back call on Christian Jones that negated a 28-yard Santonio Holmes punt return was iffy - but that's the nature of games. The officials participate too.

4. Things tend to even out over the course of a season. That notion was on full display on the Jets' final offensive play of the game. Smith lofted a ball to Jeremy Kerley in the back corner of the endzone. Kerley leaped to grab the ball, secured it, and was carried about three yards out of bounds as his feet landed with an assist to Bears safety Brock Vereen. To me, both live and on replay, the play was pass interference on Vereen, who never turned to find the ball and made plenty of contact with Kerley. In a way, it may have hurt Kerley that he caught the ball as the officials would have a hard time arguing that Vereen's actions prevented a catch even if they made it a bit more difficult.

But I'm more interested in the nearly immediate symmetry within the Bears season. Thinking back to the opener, Cutler had Holmes open streaking up the hash at the Buffalo 5 with 30 seconds left and the Bears down by 3. Jay threw a beautiful pass to Holmes who was held on his way and nearly tackled to the ground as he made his attempt at the ball. Almost unbelievably, no flag was thrown, the Bears settled for Gould's tying field goal, and lost in overtime. That contact was clearly much more aggressive than Vereen's was last night. If the officials are going to bury their flags at the end of the game, at least it has worked out both ways for the Bears already on the young season. Sorry Jon Bostic - not sure why you got flagged.

5. Kyle Fuller is a monster. Fuller was my favorite cornerback in this draft class, and his play through three weeks has made that feeling look prescient. He is physical enough and his positioning has been genuinely sound - a dreadful missed tackle on Greg Salas that led to 30 YAC yards notwithstanding - but the ball skills are what stands out. After ripping an interception from Michael Crabtree and staying out of Colin Kaepernick's vision to snag another last week, Fuller added another last night when he stuck with his man for nearly five seconds before leaping in front of him in the endzone to end a Jets' threat. Yes, he should have taken a knee for the touchback. But who really cares? As my gametime texting buddies said last night, "Little Peanut" is already emerging as the type of weapon that his predecessor was for a decade, including another Peanut Punch that very nearly secured another short field for the offense.

6. Unlike Fuller, the marquee addition on the defensive line has been an apparition. Despite securing a big-time commitment in free agency, end Jared Allen has found the sledding very difficult thus far. Allen finally broke through for two pressures late in the fourth quarter, but until that point D'Brickashaw Ferguson had completely eliminated the pass rusher despite almost exclusively being tasked with doing so on a one-on-one basis. To say that the Bears need more from Allen would be a massive understatement. From what I've seen, Allen is in real danger of losing snaps to Willie Young. When McClellin returns from his injury, I won't be surprised to see the Bears go with some 3-3-5 formations in passing situations with McClellin rushing in the mold of a 3-4 outside 'backer. Allen needs to earn his keep. His $12.5M salary for 2015 is fully guaranteed, so the Bears have him locked in for at least 29 more games. If he wants to see any of his unguaranteed cash in 2016, he needs to turn up the pressure in a big way.

7. The aforementioned Young really looks like a steal. I know that the Bears planned to use Young as a starter before stumbling into Allen later on in free agency. Young looks like someone who wants an everydown job, and with Allen struggling and Lamarr Houston playing well, Young's pass rushing acumen could lead to an increase in his snap count. I expected to see some 4-2-5 formations this year in passing situations with Houston sliding inside with Stephen Paea or Will Sutton, leaving Allen and Young on the outside. Perhaps that will come.

8. Perhaps my biggest pet peeve as a sports fan is the segment of fans who latch on to one player who makes a notably bad play and never forgets it. This applies in all sports at all levels. It has been particularly true of many Bears fans with safety Chris Conte. Conte was superb in his first two years, flying around the field as he broke up passes and made big hits. Injuries have slowed him with some regularity, but the wheels really came off in the second half last year. The decimated defensive line would have made any safety look poor, but Conte's open-field tackling skills evaporated and he took a few poor routes. Still, the vitriol that has poured his way after ignoring Randall Cobb on the season-crushing play versus Green Bay last December ignores his body of work and skills. Conte has been the best member of the secondary this year through 2 1/2 games. It's clear that he has played through significant shoulder pain, and I won't be surprised to see him back in the lineup after a week or two. Conte is tough, smart, and fast. His sliding interception of EJ Manuel against Buffalo enabled the Bears to tie the game late in the third quarter. He took a lot of flack for getting pushed aside by Fred Jackson on Jackson's big run in overtime, but Conte was making the smart play that fans should want their players to make, recognizing that the odds of Carpenter hitting on a 30-yard field goal are exceptionally high making a Jackson fumble the Bears' last real chance. His Superman pick of Kaepernick against the 49ers stopped the bleeding in the second quarter as the game was about to get out of hand.

This isn't defending Conte because he is largely defenseless; this is defending him because, despite his imperfections, he is a good player who brings a lot to the table and is incredibly important to the team's success.

8. Speaking of defenseless players, the "hit on a defenseless receiver" penalty on Danny McCray was just horrendous. McCray lowered his body and hit a hunched over Kerley in the chest as Kerley dove into the endzone on the Jets' lone touchdown in the second quarter. Kerley clearly felt the hit and was shaken up a bit from it. McCray got his body low to avoid Kerley's head, yet he was flagged anyway. What is McCray supposed to do? As far as I can tell, he really only has two options: (1) go after Kerley's knees, or (2) lay off of a receiver heading into the endzone with the ball entirely. Option 2 is a really poor choice. Option 1 ends careers. I get that the NFL is scared of debilitating injuries, but that flag doesn't seem to help matters to me.

9. While we're talking about the safeties, welcome to the NFL, Ahamd Dixon! Dixon is sure to remember last night. He recovered a muffed punt that set up the Bears' first offensive touchdown and dropped Kerley for no gain on a second quarter punt return with a huge hit. As if that wasn't enough, Dixon found himself on the field with the defense as a rash of injuries knocked out the players ahead of him. I'm sure I'd need to see the film to know how Dixon fared on the defensive side, but as a guy who found himself on the Vikings practice squad to start the season, big plays on real snaps in primetime sure looks like an upgrade.

10. There hasn't been a lot of discussion about the Bears offensive line through three games and that's an overwhelmingly positive idea. Aaron Kromer's background as a line coach is shining through as the group has been largely able to keep Cutler upright. The pressure did finally get to him last night, but the Jets' front seven is about as tough as they come and the unit held up for the most part. Even with reserves Michael Ola and Brian de la Puente playing 2 1/2 games apiece thus far, the unit has looked good, save for a few whiffs from Jermon Bushrod. Overall, it's a real strength after being a complete disaster as recently as 2012.

11. I told my brother before the game that it would be about Geno Smith. There's just something about games where it seems like one team should do one thing because they do it well and the other team stops it poorly. The Jets run well and the Bears can't stop it. The Jets grabbed 114 yards on 26 carries - good for a very healthy 4.4 yards per rush - but they had Smith throw it 43 times. The fact that Smith threw so much wasn't a surprise to me: it just seems that what we expect rarely actually comes to pass. What made it bizarre was that the Jets largely did this to themselves. Trailing 14-0 but with 55 minutes left, the Jets called six passes and four runs on their first extended offensive possession, including a slow-developing pass call from the Chicago 15 that led to Ego Ferguson's first career sack and killed New York's chances for a touchdown. Trailing 17-3 with 44 minutes left, the Jets called five passes and two runs on another field goal drive. They never fully committed to running the ball despite their excellent rushing attack and the Bears constantly struggling rush defense. I'm still surprised that the Jets put the game in Smith's hands, not the Bears.

12. There were a pair of really big misses offensively that stood out. First, Martellus Bennett had a gimme touchdown early in the second quarter that bounced off of his hands. Bennett beat Dawan Landry and Cutler threw him a beautiful ball that Bennett just missed. Cutler would miss an open Alshon Jeffery on a slant later in the drive that led to a field goal. 21-3 sure would have been better than 17-3. Bennett is too good to make that kind of drop.

The other big miss was by Matt Forte. Although the drive ended on the next play with Bennett's second touchdown after a miscommunication in the New York secondary, Forte should have scored the play before. With the Bears facing 2nd-and-18 at the Jets' 20, Kromer astutely called a screen to Forte into the teeth of a massive Jets blitz. The play worked to perfection and the only four players on the left half of the field were Forte, Ola, a Bears receiver, and Jets DB Antonio Allen. With Ola in front of him, Forte made a completely unnecessary cut to try to get past Allen instead of following his massive guard for an easy score. Forte, like Bennett, is far too good to give away that kind of scoring chance. Kudos to Allen, but he shouldn't have had the chance.

13. The other move I didn't like: Marc Trestman not challenging D.J. Williams' sideline fumble recovery. After a short pass to David Nelson, Kyle Fuller punched the ball out and the ball rested near the sideline as three Bears made a play on it. Williams ran over from the middle of the field and appeared to be the player who secured possession. While he was right next to the sideline, Williams' legs and feet appeared to be elevated off the ground while his torso and midsection were on the ground with the ball. If that's true, he had possession in play and it would have been Bears ball. Instead, 51 yards and 7 plays later, the Jets had their lone touchdown of the game as the laugher had turned into a tight 17-13 affair. I thought it was worth a challenge; perhaps there was a camera angle that disagreed.

14. Patrick O'Donnell. Yes, his first punt was nearly blocked in the Bears' endzone. Yes, I expect teams to come after him heavily after the 49ers got one last week too.

And yes, I love watching a guy with a big leg impact the game. O'Donnell's punts were absolutely spectacular. A punt-by-punt look at his day:

Punt 1: 48 yards, muffed, no return, Dixon close enough to recover for Bears
Punt 2: 41 yards, no return
Punt 3: 44 yards, fair catch
Punt 4: 34 yards, fair catch (punted from own endzone and did an end-over-end punt, clearly by call)
Punt 5: 45 yards, 10-yard return

O'Donnell's day is a lesson in the problems of traditional football statistics. Of his five punts, none were inside the Jets' 20. Instead, a quintet of big net punts - net average of 40.4 yards - helped the Bears defense after the offense left O'Donnell punting from a precarious spot. That kind of field position swing is important, as is limiting or even negating the other team's return game.

O'Donnell also has an important job as Robbie Gould's holder. Gould's kicks haven't flown as true this year. Hopefully he's progressing in that area.

15. Finally, a sobering reminder that the schedule is not our friend. After road contests against the perennially strong 49ers and the tough Jets, the Bears return home to face the dreaded Packers as one-point underdogs. Green Bay finds themselves at an early crossroads as a loss would mean a two-game deficit in the division as well as an 0-2 divisional record early in the year. Nobody wants to play a desperate opponent, particularly when said opponent is a talented team led by an MVP candidate.

Unfortunately, the schedule flips to October and it doesn't get any easier. The month begins with a southeast swing to Carolina and Atlanta, two extremely difficult road contests in which the Bears figure to be underdogs. They come home for a breather against the troubled Dolphins (as Buffalo reminds us, there are no gimmes) before heading to Foxborough to face the Patriots. The bye week mercifully arrives, but coming out of it, the Bears find a visit to Lambeau in primetime. Although Chicago figures to be favored at home against Miami, it is overwhelmingly likely that the Bears will be underdogs in seven of their first nine games on the year. If they can find a way to squeeze four or even five wins out of that stretch, they will be very well positioned to make a run as all seven of their remaining games are eminently winnable with trips to Detroit and Minnesota and home dates against Tampa Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Dallas, and New Orleans on a mid-December Monday night.

2014 still has a chance to be special thanks to some really solid play and a bit of good fortune through three weeks. It's still hard to believe how the Bears got here, but 2-1 is 2-1.

2014 NFL Picks

I haven't used this space for non-Cubs writing in a while, but on the eve of the 2014 NFL season, here are my picks for how 2014 unfolds.

NFC West
Seattle (13-3): They're totally loaded still.
San Francisco (10-6): They're also very talented, but I think 2014 will prove to be a much tougher year than the Niners have experienced in a while.
St. Louis (8-8): Yes, Sam Bradford is gone. But that defense is nasty.
Arizona (6-10): Carson. Yeesh.

NFC South
Atlanta (11-5): Big bounce back.
New Orleans (9-7): They're too talented for this. Somebody inexplicably struggles every year.
Carolina (6-10): Cam can't do it all. Losing Gross and having no receivers is tough.
Tampa Bay (6-10): Strong defense, no offense in Lovie's first year.

NFC North
Green Bay (13-3): They're due for one of these years, even with a crappy defense.
Chicago (10-6): Sometimes you can buy a defense that buys you into the playoffs.
Detroit (8-8): The rest of us celebrate Jim Caldwell's arrival.
Minnesota (7-9): Quietly building an excellent foundation. They'll be better in November/December.

NFC East
Philadelphia (9-7): Winning a bad division.
New York Giants (8-8): Can't make enough of a move. Just barely.
Washington (6-10): RGIII back to a shallow roster.
Dallas (5-11): Time to hire a GM, Jerry.

AFC West
Denver (12-4): No real competition out there.
San Diego (8-8): Many see another jump from the Bolts; not me.
Kansas City (6-10): Not enough talent for a real schedule, even with a real defense.
Oakland (3-13): Sheesh. What a mess. This feels high.

AFC South
Houston (9-7): Bill O'Brien's magic (and no more pick sixes) complete a turnaround. That and the division.
Indianapolis (9-7): All Andrew Luck. Not much else.
Jacksonville (6-10): Gus Bradley continues the methodical growth; Bortles will be fun.
Tennessee (4-12): This team is a mess.

AFC North
Cincinnati (11-5): By far the division's most talented team.
Baltimore (10-6): I can't figure out why everybody counts them out this year; they always win.
Pittsburgh (8-8): Not enough talent.
Cleveland (5-11): Definitely not enough talent.

AFC East
New England (13-3): No real competition for the Pats.
New York Jets (9-7): Nothing to do with the offense; this defense is stout.
Miami (5-11): A bad team.
Buffalo (3-13): A really bad team. At least they'll enjoy the top pick...made by Cleveland.

Clearly, either I have a very strong NFC bias or I'm a good prognosticator who sees the NFC as the much stronger conference in 2014.

Wild Card (winners in bold)
San Francisco @ Philadelphia
Chicago @ Atlanta
New York Jets @ Cincinnati
Baltimore @ Houston

Divisional
Chicago @ Seattle
San Francisco @ Green Bay
Baltimore @ New England
Cincinnati @ Denver

Conference Championships
Green Bay @ Seattle
Denver @ New England

Super Bowl
Denver over Green Bay

2015 Draft Order
1. BUF (to CLE)
2. OAK
3. TEN
4. DAL
5. MIA
6. CLE
7. WSH
8. JAX
9. KC
10. TB
11. CAR
12. ARZ
13. MIN
14. NYG
15. SD
16. PIT
17. DET
18. STL
19. IND
20. NO
21. HOU
22. NYJ
23. PHI
24. ATL
25. CHI
26. BAL
27. CIN
28. SF
29. NE
30. SEA
31. GB
32. DEN

Happy Football!

More Fun With Starlin Castro Trade Proposals

I addressed the possibilities for Castro proposals back in July for Bleed Cubbie Blue. Castro had largely stagnated after a hot first half at that time, something that led to what now appear to be slightly underwhelming trade returns. It's amazing how much a few weeks can change perception.

Anyway, the rationale for trading Castro remains consistent. Arismendy Alcantara has been moved to centerfield for the foreseeable future and his skill set projects better in center than it does at second as his speed can play up. Just as importantly, the team has a major need in center with Alcantara ready to fulfill it. A decent chunk of my thought in this regard comes from a general pessimism regarding Albert Almora, something that has returned in earnest in the months since seeing him in person.

With Alcantara in center, that leaves the three non-first base infield spots for Javier Baez, Addison Russell, Starlin Castro, Kris Bryant, and Luis Valbuena. There's a reason I was so on board with flipping Valbuena at the deadline. I recognize his value as a reserve, but that's it.

Anyway, Bryant is going to get a year or two to prove that he can hack it at third, as well he should. That leaves the two middle infield spot for three guys. Baez has the highest offensive ceiling, Russell isn't far behind and has the best defensive game, and Castro has the worst combined game among the trio, even though he's a very good, non-star regular. He's on pace for his third year in the last four with a WAR just a hair over 3.0. That's good, but it isn't special. His walk rate has improved, but his strikeout rate has climbed too even though his power has largely leveld off with an ISO around .150; again, good but not special by any stretch.

Having watched a few dozen games of Russell in addition to every video I could find of him on the Internet after his acquisition, I think he's going to be in Chicago next summer even having missed two months with a hamstring injury this year. Russell is hitting for big power, getting on base very well, limiting strikeouts, and he has rather easily the most refined yet still loud defensive game among Cubs middle infield prospects. He looks like a .290/.370/.500 player with 20 homers and 15 steals complementing his superb shortstop defense; that's a mega-star.

All of this drives home one point: even though Castro isn't exactly expendable, he's something of a luxury item on a team that still needs pitching. He'd be among the most sought-after players on the trade market should the Cubs seek to make him available.

So, yet again, let's do just that. Time for Rob's fun with Castro trades! I'm going to propose a Castro deal to every team starting with the least likely/attractive offer and finishing with my favorite proposal.

HOUSTON: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Houston Astros for SP Dallas Keuchel and SP Lance McCullers
Keuchel is not exciting at all. The lefty averages just 89.5 mph on his fastball and comes with the pedigree of most seventh round picks. However, after a solid showing in 2013, he has been very good in 2014. I don't believe fully in the package so McCullers is an important addition. Regardless, a deal headlined by Keuchel just doesn't do it for me. I'd rather have Carlos Correa, but Houston won't move him. That leaves George Springer (24-year-old with tons of strikeouts and a mediocre glove), Mark Appel (yikes), Mike Foltynewicz (reliever), and Jon Singleton (1B). Just not a good match.

ANAHEIM: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and SP Edwin Jackson to Anaheim Angels for SP Tyler Skaggs, SP Matt Shoemaker, OF Natanael Delgado, and SP Ricardo Sanchez
Obviously Skaggs is out for all of 2015 with his second Tommy John surgery, so his value is way down. Shoemaker is an organizational arm enjoying surprising success as a swingman. Delgado is a Rookie League bat with some thump and tons of strikeouts. Sanchez is a 17-year-old lefty pitching in instructional ball but holding his own. Every worthwhile prospect from the Angels system now plays in the Padres system. It's remarkable. It was not fun coming up with this package.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Chicago White Sox for OF Avisail Garcia, SS Tim Anderson, and SP Erik Johnson
You've got to love Garcia to sink your teeth into this deal. Me? Not so much.

MILWAUKEE: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Milwaukee Brewers for OF Tyrone Taylor, SP Jimmy Nelson, and SP Devin Williams
A weird package, to be sure. Nelson is an MLB-ready arm with a #4 starter ceiling, so he's hardly a huge get. Taylor and Williams are both really raw, guys with big tools but little track records.

CINCINNATI: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Cincinnati Reds for SP Tony Cingrani, SP Robert Stephenson, and SP Ismael Guillon
Yet another trade I don't really like. This banks on 2014 being the fluke for Cingrani with 2013 being the norm. I don't buy that, at least not enough. Stephenson has top-of-the-rotation upside, but he also has multiple Double-A starts with seven walks. There's a lot of work to be done there. Guillon is a big-bodied lefty who requires lots of squinting to see as a big-time arm.

SAN FRANCISCO: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to San Francisco Giants for SP Kyle Crick, SP Adalberto Mejia, and C Andrew Susac
The Giants are a tough match. Crick has massive problems with walks, but he also has ace-caliber stuff. Mejia has plenty of stuff and the young lefty has had enough success to buy into his skills. Susac is the key in making this deal work. He draws plenty of walks and hits for solid power. If he can (1) stay a catcher and (2) project to hit .250 or better, he's a worthy starting catcher. If either of those factors falls short, he's not much of a target.

OAKLAND: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Oakland A's for SP Jeff Samardzija, C John Jaso, and SP Raul Alcantara
Well wouldn't that be funny? The A's have been looking for middle infield support, and this package coming back to the Cubs is nearly perfect with Samardzija filling an important rotation role, Jaso complementing Castillo at catcher, and Alcantara entering the ranks of the Cubs prospect arms once he returns from surgery next summer.

CLEVELAND: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Cleveland Indians for SP Trevor Bauer and OF Clint Frazier
Talk about a weird looking deal. Bauer is still totally boom-or-bust despite having reached the Majors, and Frazier appears to be much slower moving than many expected. Still, the ceilings here are immense.

ST. LOUIS: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to St. Louis Cardinals for SP Lance Lynn and SP Marco Gonzales
Castro-for-Lynn is a really interesting deal. Lynn is a cheap, productive starter, but he lacks ideal upside. Gonzales is a lefty changeup specialist who profiles as a back-end starter. This is probably the lowest ceiling package, but that's the nature of dealing with rivals; both teams would likely fear making a splashier move.

ARIZONA: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and C Welington Castillo to Arizona Diamondbacks for C Miguel Montero, SP Braden Shipley, SP Aaron Blair, and SS Sergio Alcantara
The Cubs get a slight catching upgrade in exchange for absorbing the three years and $40M remaining on Montero's deal. Shipley is the prize as a big-time prospect arm. Blair has progressed nicely since being drafted, and Alcantara is an 18-year-old flyer in short-season ball. This trade looks a little funky, but in the end it offers the kind of upside plays and immediate improvement that you'd like to see.

KANSAS CITY: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Kansas City Royals for SP Kyle Zimmer, SP Sean Manaea, and SS Orlando Calixte
Zimmer's stock took a big hit in 2014 as injuries prevented him from making any starts. As such, he has just four starts above High-A to his credit. Manaea also comes with significant injury concerns given a hip labrum problem that caused a big draft drop. To Manaea's credit, he has really turned things up at High-A recently. Calixte figures to be a utility guy with a nice defensive game and some power offset by on-base struggles.

TORONTO: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Toronto Blue Jays for SP Daniel Norris, SP Roberto Osuna, and SP Jairo Labourt
Acquiring Castro enables the Jays to play Brett Lawrie at 3B and Castro at 2B on either side of Jose Reyes. That's a strong infield. Norris would have the right of way to a 2015 rotation job while Osuna may actually be the crown jewel in this deal; Labourt is a lottery ticket addition. The Cubs and Jays aren't a great match on Castro.

 

SEATTLE: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Seattle Mariners for SP James Paxton, SP Luiz Gohara, and SP Victor Sanchez

Paxton can pitch in the 2015 rotation, Gohara is the ultimate lottery ticket, and Sanchez has a terrible body with good results at a very young age.

PITTSBURGH: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Pittsburgh Pirates for SP Jameson Taillon and OF Harold Ramirez
Taillon is the huge get, although he comes with the massive red flag of 2014 Tommy John surgery. He likely will struggle as he returns in 2015, but the top-end ceiling remains. Ramirez is a nice, five-tool guy with no plus tool who has a relatively long developmental path ahead of him. This is all about Taillon and it's probably more risk than the Cubs brain trust is willing to accept.

BALTIMORE: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Baltimore Orioles for SP Kevin Gausman and C Chance Sisco
This deal is all about Gausman, an MLB-ready mid-to-top-of-the-rotation arm. Sisco and Victor Caratini could fight for years to be the successor to Welington Castillo.

DETROIT: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Detroit Tigers for SP Rick Porcello, SP Jonathon Crawford, OF Steven Moya, and C James McCann
The Tigers system alone can't pull this deal together, but Porcello makes for an interesting headliner. He's a year from free agency, but he could likely be extended. The prospect package coming back is truly underwhelming: a 22-year-old with 65 strikeouts in 99 innings in the Midwest League, a 22-year-old with a sub-.300 OBP despite big power, and a backup catcher. Porcello is good and that makes this deal palatable.

SAN DIEGO: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to San Diego Padres for SP Tyson Ross and SP Max Fried
This return also involves a lot of risk. Ross is in his first year as a full-time MLB starter even though he's already 27. His results have been very strong and his groundball tendencies make him attractive in Wrigley Field. Fried was among the top pitching prospects in baseball last year, but a year of elbow pain has limited him to five very poor appearances; Tommy John surgery appears inevitable. However, the chance to get a talent like Fried's and a productive, cheap starter like Ross makes the deal worthwhile.

COLORADO: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and OF Jacob Hannemann to Colorado Rockies for SP Eddie Butler and OF David Dahl
I assume that Jon Gray is totally off limits. If that's the case, this is about as well as the Cubs could hope to do. The Rockies could easily trade Troy Tulowitzki this winter, finding themselves in need of a new shortstop. Dahl probably won't ever draw a lot of walks, but his game is diverse with value coming via every facet.

MIAMI: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Miami Marlins for SP Andrew Heaney and SP Nathan Eovaldi
Heaney has pitched exceptionally well in the minors but the 23-year-old's first taste of the Bigs went very poorly. Adeiny Hechavarria isn't going to last at SS in Miami, so Castro finds a long-term home. Eovaldi is a mid-to-back-of-the-rotation guy with a massive arm. He's certainly shown enough to be a valuable addition.

BOSTON: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Boston Red Sox for SP Henry Owens and C Blake Swihart
It's been a while since the Cubs acquired a switch-hitting catcher. Swihart would have a shot at the Opening Day 2015 starting job and he would profile as a plus catcher from mid-summer onward. Owens has been out of his mind this year and his value is certainly inflated thanks to that success. Still, this would be a solid haul for the Cubs.

WASHINGTON: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and SP Juan Paniagua to Washington Nationals for SP Jordan Zimmermann and SP A.J. Cole
Zimmermann is a really solid starter, but he's never been great and he does have 2009 Tommy John surgery on his resume. He's also only controlled for 2015 at a market rate of $16.5M. This deal is about the chance to get Zimmermann in house and acquire the near-ready Cole to throw into the rotation as well. It certainly isn't as sexy as the other packages discussed, but it still gives the Cubs two arms for the 2015 rotation.

ATLANTA: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Atlanta Braves for SP Mike Minor and SP Lucas Sims
The Cubs take a chance on Minor returning to form after a BABIP-driven disappointment in 2014. He's already into arbitration, something that could lead the Braves to seek out an alternative use of his projected salary. Sims is their top prospect, although he has had his fair share of struggles in High-A this year and clearly needs a couple of years of additional development. The upside play for the Cubs is significant, but this is among the riskiest deals.

NEW YORK YANKEES: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and 1B Dan Vogelbach to New York Yankees for SP Ian Clarkin, C Gary Sanchez, OF Mason Williams, and OF Brett Gardner
I'm an unabashed Clarkin supporter; I have no shame admitting it. I think he's going to be really good. He's also new to the Florida State League, so he has a long way to go. Sanchez still has plenty of raw tools, but his stock has fallen mightily to the point that he can't be the centerpiece of this deal. Gardner is an ideal fit for the current Cubs as a leadoff-hitting left fielder while the Yankees would covet Vogelbach's lefty offense in Yankee Stadium. The Cubs take a flyer on Williams too. This would be a stunning deal, but I certainly expect the Yankees to come calling this winter.

PHILADELPHIA: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Philadelphia Phillies for SP Cole Hamels, SP Cliff Lee, and $15M
Boom! The Cubs would absorb massive salary commitments in this deal, but Hamels immediately becomes the staff ace while the Cubs take a shot on Lee returning to health. If he does so, he could very easily be the best pitcher on the team considering his dominant run from 2008-2013 in which he posted between 4.8 and 7.1 WAR every season. When healthy in 2014, his FIP has been every bit as good.

The contract situation is the driver of this deal. The duo is owed $47.5M in 2015. In 2016, the Phillies hold a club option on Lee for $27.5M that carries a $12.5M buyout making its exercise quite likely; Hamels is owed $22.5M for the year, bringing the pair's total to $50M. The $15M included in the deal covers Lee's $15M net option price. The Cubs would owe Hamels $22.5M in 2017, $22.5M in 2018, and (likely) $20M in 2019. While these salary figures are massive, they represent an opportunity for the Cubs to nab two excellent starters to plug in immediately. This simultaneously improves the team dramatically in 2015 and enables them to be more open-minded when it comes to trading other pitchers. If the Cubs sought to push their payroll back to 2009 levels (there's no indication that this is the case), they could still fit Jon Lester into the fold.

Disclaimer: the above deal would require Ruben Amaro to be a logical person, so there is a 0% chance of it happening.

TAMPA BAY: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro, CF Albert Almora, and 1B Dan Vogelbach to Tampa Bay Rays for SP Chris Archer, SP Jake Odorizzi, and UTIL Ben Zobrist
The Cubs immediately plug Archer and Odorizzi into the rotation behind Jake Arrieta and (presumably) Jon Lester giving the club four extremely strong starting options with Kyle Hendricks in the driver's seat for the fifth job and Edwin Jackson and Travis Wood fighting for employment. Zobrist is only under contract for 2015 via a club option and he turns 34 in May, so he's on the back-end of his usefulness.

MINNESOTA: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and SP Paul Blackburn to Minnesota Twins for SP Alex Meyer, SP Kohl Stewart, and Competitive Balance Round B Pick #4 in 2015
I'm sure even throwing this trade proposal out in the universe has given Twins fans heart palpitations, but it feels like genuinely appropriate value for Castro. Meyer would step into the 2015 rotation while Stewart immediately becomes the ace prospect of the organization. Surrendering the emerging Blackburn is tough for the Cubs, but it's worth it to grab Stewart's ceiling.

LOS ANGELES: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and RP Corey Black to Los Angeles Dodgers for OF Joc Pederson and SP Zach Lee
This one is easy to propose and unlikely to be accepted by the Dodgers. However, if Hanley Ramirez bolts in free agency, Los Angeles could make a very attractive trade partner for the Cubs.

NEW YORK METS: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro and SP Juan Paniagua to New York Mets for SP Zach Wheeler and SP Noah Syndergaard
I'll just keep proposing this deal until it happens.

TEXAS: Chicago Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro to Texas Rangers for C Jorge Alfaro and SP Alex Gonzalez
Gonzalez has motored through the Texas system and has the look of a mid-rotation arm. But Alfaro is as big of a prize as any listed in this entire post. He's got the body to stick behind the plate, and his arm is Molina-esque. Throw in big power and decent on-base ability, and you've got a star in the making.

Closing Thoughts
I'm ready for a Castro deal. It's that simple. The Cubs can capitalize on his value this offseason to infuse even more talent to help the 2015 and especially the 2016-18 clubs as they chase some flags. I'd certainly like to see a deal before Castro's salary inflates and some of the smaller market teams drop out as players.

A Post-Blockbuster Look Toward Competing in 2015

Back in June, I wondered in these spaces about what it would take to build a 2015 contender in Wrigleyville. Naturally, since then, a whole boatload has changed. Of the moves I proposed, only two of the five proposed moves are still possible after Jeff Samardzija was traded to Oakland (and not extended), Jason Hammel was traded to Oakland (and not Milwaukee), and Seth Smith was extended by San Diego (thus avoiding free agency after the season). With the Oakland blockbuster in our rearview mirror and team spending down to Sandberg-era levels, here's another proposed plan for the next few months to make the 2015 (and beyond) Cubs into serious players. This is all contingent on General Manager Jed Hoyer having spoken the truth when commenting that the team is ready to spend on veteran talent this winter, returning the payroll at least to the $100M range where it lived for over a decade.

Again, just like last time, I'm thinking big but nonetheless within the realm of reason. Every player is on the table.

 

Smaller Transactions: Cubs trade UTIL Emilio Bonifacio, IF Luis Valbuena, RP Wesley Wright, and RP James Russell to various contending teams

Why the Cubs Do It: Because none of those players are key contributors and all have some value to contenders. They should generate some kind of return. 2B Darwin Barney has already moved to the Los Angeles bench. OF Justin Ruggiano is the one tricky guy to me as he could be kept as a bridge starter/excellent reserve. As always, dealing him is predicated on the expected return. Any return for Bonifacio is a good return given his complete nosedive after early April, Valbuena is about to lose his regular playing time, and non-impact relievers almost always return more via trade than they should. The Cubs should take advantage of that. I'd throw Chris Coghlan in this boat, but it looks like the club believes in his bat, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

Transaction #1: Cubs sign SP Jon Lester to a 6-year, $135M contract covering 2015-2020

Why Lester Does It: The Cubs are on the upswing, he is familiar with the championship-building front office, and there's a whole lot of cash helping him make his decision.

Why the Cubs Do It: Yes, this is a boatload of money, but Lester costs only cash (and probably a 2nd round pick) with remarkable consistency from a lefty who produces at star levels. These kinds of players are rarely available and the ability to acquire one for only money at a time when the Cubs should have plenty of it makes too much sense, even if they pay the loser's tax in the form of the sixth year.

Closing Thought: Finding a top-of-the-rotation starter is rather obviously the biggest need for the team this winter.

Transaction #2: Cubs sign C Russell Martin to a 4-year, $52M contract covering 2015-2018

Why Martin Does It: As a catcher in his 30s, this is probably his last shot at a big deal. Pittsburgh is well-positioned to contend through his useful years, but the Cubs are too while offering more cash.

Why the Cubs Do It: Because (1) Martin is either a very good player or a star, depending on the year, and (2) it addresses what remains the organization's biggest position of weakness. Martin's defense alone should cover the cost of this deal, and he has shown big power and big on-base ability in the past, though rarely at the same time. They don't need him to be a star.

Closing Thought: Hurting a division rival is helpful too. Especially when it frees you up to make additional big moves.

Transaction #3: Cubs trade SS Starlin Castro, CF Albert Almora, SP Travis Wood, and SP Tyler Skulina to New York Mets for SP Zack Wheeler, SP Noah Syndergaard, SP Rafael Montero, SP Steven Matz, and SP Robert Whalen

Why the Mets Do It: After the trade, their rotation features some combination of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Bartolo Colon, Wood, Jon Niese, and Dillon Gee. Plus, they've got the financial flexibility to add a premier starter such as Max Scherzer. They've needed a shortstop since Jose Reyes left and a center fielder for just as long. With one deal, they address all of their needs while moving the fly ball-leaning Wood into a better home park.

Why the Cubs Do It: The Almora-for-Montero portion is largely a positional flip of players with comparable value. Skulina and Whalen are both A-ball pitchers albeit with different skill sets as Skulina has the big body to support a power arsenal while Whalen uses a power sinker to throw ground balls. The rest of the deal breaks down to Castro and Wood for Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Matz. I think Wheeler and Syndergaard is too much for Castro while acknowledging that a handful of folks - including some of whom I trust - think that Castro is more valuable than the pitching pair. Regardless, grabbing two arms for the 2015 (and beyond) rotation that both have top-of-the-rotation ability is just too much for me to pass up. Even for folks on the fence, converting the middling Wood into power-lefty Matz should tip the scales.

Closing Thought: The Cubs likely make this move only if they believe that SS Addison Russell is (1) a better defender than Castro, and (2) likely to be ready for a Major League job by early-to-mid-2015. I'm in that camp.

 

Transaction #4: Cubs trade C Welington Castillo and OF Justin Ruggiano to Boston Red Sox for SP Brian Johnson and OF Bryce Brentz

Why Boston Does It: Unless Brock Holt's .373 BABIP is real (it isn't), their outfield is in a really bad spot. Unless they're ready to give Christian Vazquez the everyday catching job (they're not), they need someone to bridge the gap to Blake Swihart. Castillo and Ruggiano fill two holes quite nicely for Boston.

Why the Cubs Do It: Castillo is superfluous with Martin on board and Ruggiano is homeless in the new Cubs outfield when the barrage of kids show up. Both would have plenty of value to the 2015 Cubs, but they'd have a longer term impact if they turned into Johnson and Brentz. Brentz has big righty power but contact issues at AAA; he projects as a reserve bat. Johnson was a supplemental first round choice in 2012, and the 6'3", 225 lbs. lefty has zoomed through the Boston system thanks to a polished approach to pitching. He's probably a 5th starter/swingman and the Cubs need a few more of those.

Closing Thought: This also saves about $6M in 2015 payroll and obviously more in the future.

That's four big transactions this time: two trades and two free agent splashes. Here's the revised 2015 roster by May or June, depending on when all the kids show up:

Starting Pitchers

Jon Lester - $22.5M

Jake Arrieta - $4.5M (approximately)

Zack Wheeler - $0.52M

Noah Syndergaard - $0.52M

Edwin Jackson - $11M

Analysis: That rotation features two stalwarts at the top with a pair of big-name, big-armed kids. And then Edwin the rebound candidate. The rotation costs $39.04M in 2015 with an arbitration raise for Arrieta the only expense increase for 2016; as an aside, Arrieta's arbitration salary is exceptionally difficult to project. Those are five massive arms with all of the Cubs pitching prospects ready to fill in the gaps as Kyle Hendricks and Dallas Beeler are the most likely names to find starts. The Cubs could certainly deal Edwin if an acceptable offer came their way.

Relief Pitchers

Hector Rondon - $0.52M

Neil Ramirez - $0.52M

Justin Grimm - $0.52M

Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M

Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approximately)

Zac Rosscup - $0.52M

Brian Schlitter - $0.52M

Dallas Beeler - $0.52M

Analysis: No change here. Still an exciting bullpen for an absurd $5.55M. Armando Rivero and Blake Parker are still lurking for jobs in this scenario with Beeler living as the Villanueva-style long man. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up.

Catchers

Russell Martin - $13M

Rafael Lopez - $0.52M

Analysis: Martin fills in the previous weak link, converting it to a position of strength. Lopez would definitely not be handed the backup job as he hits for no power, although his on-base skills have translated reasonably well from AA to AAA.

Infielders

Anthony Rizzo - $5M

Addison Russell - $0.52M

Kris Bryant - $0.52M

Javier Baez - $0.52M

Logan Watkins - $0.52M

Analysis: If Valbuena isn't dealt, he figures to stick around as the primary infield reserve. If he is dealt, the team could opt for an all-bat, no-glove reserve given the defensive flexibility of Russell, Baez, Watkins, and OF Arismendy Alcantara. This infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Baez, Russell, and Bryant. Holy smokes, it got even better since June (thanks Addison!). $7.08M gets the group in 2015.

Outfielders

Jorge Soler - $2M

Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M

Chris Coghlan - $1.75M (approximately)

Junior Lake - $0.53M

Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M

Analysis: I said a few months ago that I thought Alcantara was bound for CF given his skill set and roster construction. Obviously that proved prescient. This projected outfield is a bit aggressive given Coghlan's relatively recent offensive emergence and his horrendous defensive production thus far as well as pushing Soler into a full-time MLB job. The club has been mentioned as players for Rusney Castillo, and depending on price/evaluation, Castillo makes tons of sense here, especially given that the group costs just $6.3M so far.

Given a $39.04M rotation, $5.55M bullpen, $13.52M catchers, $7.08M infield, and $6.3M outfield, the total spending for 2015 would be $71.49M on the 25-man roster, remarkably and almost impossibly under 2014's Opening Day total without even including nearly $15M of dead money for Alfonso Soriano and Scott Hairston. Filling the remainder of the 2015 40-man roster with minimum salary players, the 40-man number would reach approximately $79.29. Adding in contract buyouts for Kyuji Fujikawa and Jose Veras gets the number to just $80.09M.

So there it is. The Cubs could field a strong, exciting rotation with a similarly explosive lineup and excellent bullpen for $80M. Wow. While I did deal away Albert Almora (who I'm not high on to begin with, even though he faked me out for a bit at Spring Training), I built this roster holding onto every other useful youngster including Jacob Hannemann, Kyle Schwarber, Billy McKinney, Dan Vogelbach, Pierce Johnson, C.J. Edwards, Jen-Ho Tseng, Paul Blackburn, Juan Paniagua, etc.

Given the transactions above, the lineup would be as follows:

CF Alcantara

SS Russell

1B Rizzo

3B Bryant

2B Baez

RF Soler

C   Martin

LF Coghlan

There would be growing pains with the youngsters and injuries are always a risk. But come on, that's nasty. That octet playing behind a rotation of...

SP1 Lester

SP2 Arrieta

SP3 Wheeler

SP4 Syndergaard

SP5 Jackson

SP6 Hendricks

SP7 Beeler
SP8 Montero

...is basically the dream. I know that this world will never exist, but I don't care. I'd love it so darn much.

This also maintains plenty of payroll flexibility by operating with a low payroll and talent flexibility by holding onto every non-Almora prospect. The projected expenses through 2017 remain eminently reasonable:

2016

Rotation: $43.58M (Lester ($22.5M), Arrieta ($9M), Wheeler ($0.55M), Syndergaard ($0.53M), Jackson ($11M))

Bullpen: $11.28M (Rondon ($4M), Ramirez ($0.53M), Grimm ($0.54M), Vizcaino ($2M), Strop ($2.6M), Rivero ($0.53M), Rosscup ($0.54M), Beeler ($0.54M))

Catchers: $13.53M (Martin ($13M), Lopez ($0.53M))

Infield: $7.13M (Rizzo ($5M), Baez ($0.53M), Bryant ($0.53M), Russell ($0.53M), Watkins ($0.54M))

Outfield: $7.61M (Soler ($3M), Alcantara ($0.54M), Schwarber ($0.53M), Coghlan ($3M), Lake ($0.54M))

TOTAL: $83.13M

2017

Rotation: $44.62M (Lester ($22.5M), Arrieta ($15M), Wheeler ($6M), Syndergaard ($0.56M), Hendricks ($0.56M))

Bullpen: $17.42M (Rondon ($7M), Ramirez ($0.55M), Grimm ($0.56M), Vizcaino ($3M), Strop ($3.5M), Rivero ($0.55M), Rosscup ($1.7M), Beeler ($0.56M))

Catchers: $13.55M (Martin ($13M), Lopez ($0.55M))

Infield: $9.21M (Rizzo ($7M), Baez ($0.55M), Bryant ($0.55M), Russell ($0.55M), Watkins ($0.56M))

Outfield: $10.61M (Soler ($3M), Alcantara ($0.56M), Schwarber ($0.55M), Coghlan ($5M), Lake ($1.5M))

TOTAL: $95.41M

There would still be plenty left on the farm for 2015 even if we assume that Alcantara, Baez, Russell, Bryant, Soler, Syndergaard, Hendricks, Montero, and Beeler all lose their prospect elgibility. The top remaining prospects after this series of transactions with their expected 2015 starting point in parentheses:

1. OF Kyle Schwarber (AA)
2. SP Jen-Ho Tseng (A+)
3. SP Steven Matz (AAA)
4. CF Jacob Hannemann (A+)
5. SP Paul Blackburn (A+)
6. OF Eloy Jimenez (SS)
7. SP Brian Johnson (AAA)
8. SP Pierce Johnson (AAA)
9. SP Duane Underwood (A+)
10. OF Billy McKinney (AA)
11. RP C.J. Edwards (AAA)
12. SP Rob Zastryzny (AA)
13. SP Dylan Cease (Rk)
14. SP Jeferson Mejia (A)
15. SP Erling Moreno (SS)
16. SP Carson Sands (A)
17. 1B Dan Vogelbach (AA)
18. SP Jake Stinnett (A)
19. SS Gleyber Torres (SS)
20. OF Mark Zagunis (A)
21. RP Juan Paniagua (AA)
22. SP Robert Whalen (A+)
23. RP Corey Black (AAA)

Plus I'm just not sure what to do with Dan Straily. The Cubs would also add a top-ten draft pick to this group.

Theo, if you're reading, let's do this. You can even save some cash by punting on Edwin and giving Hendricks his job!

So Many Thoughts on Addison Russell

For now, just four before I go to bed:

1. The Cubs are saving some serious cash. They owed Samardzija roughly $2.6M more over the rest of this year and likely something around $10M next year. They owed Hammel $3M more this year. Thus, about $5.6M comes off of the books for 2014 with the removal of next year's second biggest expense. Making only very basic projections about the 40-man roster (removing Darwin Barney, John Baker, James McDonald, Brett Jackson, and Josh Vitters while adding a few guys who need to be protected), through 35 players, I have the salary at $61.7M. That's a bit lower than normal; from 2007-2011, the 40-man averaged about $133M. If ever a team is positioned to be major players in free agency, it is the 2014 Cubs.

2. I have to think that some of the sense of urgency to make this deal involves draft positioning. This rebuild has been built around the premise that bottoming out nets top picks and big spending pools, enabling the team to gobble up elite talent cheaply. 2014 figured to be the last year of putrid play, but something went wrong: the 2014 Cubs can pitch. Really well. Despite having a team wRC+ of 82 (18% below the average offense) that ranked 29th in baseball ahead of only the miserable Padres, the Cubs run differential was remarkably +1 on the strength of the fifth best WAR among pitching staffs and the second best rotation WAR.

The Cubs were on pace for another stinker at 20-34 as of June 1st. Since then, the team has posted an 18-12 mark to climb to 38-46, the tenth worst record in baseball and dangerously on the brink of missing out on a protected first-round draft pick in 2015. Seeing as the Cubs are positioned to make a run at one of the winter's marquee starting pitchers - Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, James Shields, and Co. are certainly aware of today's move - losing the protection of the top pick represents a massive cost addition to the free agency plan. The Cubs are currently only four games better than MLB-worst Houston, so as more talented teams with worse records like Boston, Texas, Tampa Bay, and Minnesota improve in the second half, the Cubs have assured themselves of avoiding such a winning run. If they're going to get one more crack at a marquee draftee, the Cubs want to maximize their draft spot. Trading away their top two pitchers after 84 games is a marvelous way to do that.

3. Projecting lineups has been extremely fun for a while. Now, it's just silly. Russell has the infield chops to be a plus defender at any position, but I would be surprised if the Cubs envision him playing somewhere other than SS or 2B. As such, how about this mid-2015 lineup:

CF Alcantara
SS Russell
1B Rizzo
RF Bryant
3B Baez
2B Castro
LF Soler
C   Castillo

That's silly good. But we left Kyle Schwarber out of the party, so let's look to May 1st, 2016:

SS Russell
1B Rizzo
RF Bryant
LF Schwarber
3B Baez
CF Alcantara
2B Castro
C   Castillo

I remember seeing the 2004 Cubs field an offensive lineup of the following players with the triple slash lines as of that date...

CF Patterson (.276/.329/.434)
SS Garciaparra (.320/.361/.491)
LF Alou (.276/.336/.526)
RF Sosa (.275/.358/.578)
3B Ramirez (.326/.376/.592)
1B Lee (.299/.370/.547)
2B Walker (.281/.364/.507)
C   Barrett (.289/.339/.479)
P   Zambrano (.200/.196/.220 - a rough offensive year for Z)

...and realizing that it was the best offensive lineup of my lifetime.

This Cubs team does not project to be better than that late 2004 offense. But they project to be at least somewhat similar in an era where that type of offense just isn't supposed to happen, and they project to do so while playing overwhelmingly superior defense with four MLB-caliber shortstops (Baez, Russell, Castro, Alcantara) on the field at the same time. It's hard to believe the roster that Theo and Jed have put together. The minor leaguers could destroy the major leaguers, unless Jake Arrieta is on the mound.

The bullpen is there. The position players are coming rapidly. And there's money and supply to address the starters in a few months plus an Arrieta in the fold.

4. If I was Starlin Castro, I'd be looking over my shoulder. Both Baez and Russell project for better defense and offense than Castro with Baez at AAA and Russell at AA. Arismendy Alcantara looks like a big-time 2B prospect who may get bumped to CF based on need. Kris Bryant has the chops to play an average 3B and his arm might help him creep above that level. The Cubs need pitching and a centerfielder. What might the going rate be for a cost-controlled two-time All-Star SS who is just 24, ranks seventh among SS in WAR, and ranks third among SS in wRC+, trailing only Hanley Ramirez (not a SS) and Troy Tulowitzki (not a human)? How much would he return, especially given that his very affordable contract makes him a viable target for every single team?

Just from a brief look through MLB teams, the following clubs jump out as potential Castro suitors either this month or in the winter:

Tampa Bay: Yunel Escobar can't do anything this year. He was extended at the beginning of the year, but if the Rays move Ben Zobrist, they'll have an opening. Hak-Ju Lee could push Escobar and play with Castro.

Miami: Adeiny Hechavarria is really bad with the stick. .060 ISO and a .299 OBP. They're the ideal match with all tiers of pitching in he minors. How about Castro for Andrew Heaney?

New York Yankees: Almost too obvious. Jeter will bail and the Yanks desperately need a replacement. Castro could play 2B for the 2014 playoff push and replace Jeter for the long haul. The Yankees system is poor, but they could offer the Cubs a high-end catching prospect and some project arms. Or Masahiro Tanaka (kidding).

Boston: Xander Bogaerts might move back to SS but Stephen Drew appears unlikely to stick around beyond 2014.

Cleveland: Asdrubal Cabrera will be a free agent.

New York Mets: They haven't had a good SS since the moment Jose Reyes left.

So many possibilities. So much high-end talent.

What If I'm Wrong and the Cubs Do Trade Samardzija?

For many months, the assumption of most Cubs fans, writers, etc. has been that the club will perform one last (hopefully) fire sale this summer, shipping out veteran talent for lottery tickets to dump into the franchise's huge bucket of already accumulated lottery tickets. Over the past few days, I've shared my belief that, given the state of the rebuild, the maturation of the club's top MLB players and MiLB prospects, and this winter's free agent market, the team will do some selling this summer but follow it with a whole boatload of buying this winter.

A key piece of that strategy has been my belief that, after considering all of the facts and circumstances, the Cubs will extend Jeff Samardzija instead of trading him. But I acknowledge the solid possibility that, feeling no attachment to him, the front office will instead ship Samardzija to a contender this summer. At the request of a few folks, here is a rundown of what some offers for Samardzija might look like following one very important caveat.

Transitive properties sometimes do but often don't work in sports. If the Lions beat the Bears and the Bears beat the Packers then the Lions should beat the Packers, right? Of course not. It works that way in trades too because no two people will assess the value of players identically and because no teams share a genuinely identical financial situation. Thus, figuring that Samardzija will return a much better package to the Cubs than Matt Garza did last summer given that Samardzija is solidly a better pitcher with an extra year of club control at a reasonable cost can get you into trouble. Samardzija will return what the June/July market of 2014 dictates; nothing more, nothing less.

What's For Sale, Exactly?
Jeff Samardzija is a 29-year-old starting pitcher with the innings on his arm of a comparable pitcher in his early-to-mid-20s given his dual-sport status through college and his rearing as a relief pitcher as a professional. This will be important to teams. Samardzija is under contract for $5.345M this year and controllable in 2015 in his third and final arbitration season in which he figures to earn approximately $10M, give or take a bit. Thus, an acquiring team at the midpoint of the 2014 season would acquire 1.5 seasons of Samardzija for approximately $12.7M, a significant bargain relative to the cost of comparable pitchers on the free agent market. Samardzija's Baseball Prospectus injury report is, remarkably, completely empty even though BP tracks day-to-day and spring training injuries even if the player misses no games.

Samardzija was a punch line about the futility of the Cubs drafts as recently as a few years ago, but after a promising turn in the bullpen, he has emerged as a quality starting pitcher. Having won a starting job in 2012, Samardzija has posted above-average strikeout rates (between 8.11 and 9.27 K/9), league-average walk rates (approximately 3.00 BB/9), above-average groundball rates, and put the full package together to post FIPs of 3.55, 3.77, and 2.95. Among qualified starters, his FIP ranked 27th (of 88) in 2012, 47th (of 81) in 2013, and 22nd (of 99) in 2014. While those rankings may appear to only range from average to above-average, they must be considered in the context that the only starters to qualify for pitching awards tend to be the best of the best. With only 81 qualified starters in 2013, Samardzija certainly outpitched the majority of starters. While there is the occasional Danny Salazar who pitches wonderfully over a shorter period of time, many of the non-qualified starters are the Chris Rusins and Carlos Villanuevas of the baseball world. Those guys make lots of starts too.

Who's Buying?
We know that the Cubs are selling Samardzija in this hypothetical, but who is interested in his services? It has to be a team with postseason aspirations, almost certainly in 2014, as Samardzija's value is much higher to a team that can use him to make two playoff runs compared to just one. It also has to be a team who needs a starting pitcher. Whereas most higher-priced veterans dealt at the deadline come along with a significant financial price tag, Samardzija does not, as noted above. Realistically, there's not a team in baseball that can't afford to acquire him.

With the above said, I've broken the MLB teams into categories organized by potential interest level:

I. We're Not Contending in 2014
We lose seven of the potential 29 trading in Houston, Texas, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, the Mets, San Diego, and Arizona. The Mets could be aggressively forward-thinking in making a run at Samardzija to pair with Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Bartolo Colon in 2015, but he doesn't seem to be a great fit given their organizational needs. Texas could tread water until some of the injured starters return, but the odds of Jon Daniels dealing with Jed Hoyer again after his experience the last two summers are extremely low. Let's just assume that these seven are out.

II. We Don't Need a Starting Pitcher (at least not badly enough)
Everyone needs starting pitching all the time. With that said, there are different levels of need. We lose seven more teams on this criteria with Washington, Detroit, the Yankees (unless they decide to be the Yankees - always possible), Anaheim, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Cleveland.

III. The A's and Marlins
The A's don't need Samardzija and the Marlins are loaded with pitching prospects ready to contribute. So neither team needs Samardzija. But that's not the reason they won't be acquiring him: they won't be acquiring him because they just don't make moves like that. They're out.

IV. The Possibilities
These nine teams should have plenty of interest in Samardzija, although for one reason or another, they don't seem quite as likely to make a move for him as the clubs in the next group. With a brief description of my take on their interest level, here are the teams ranked in increasing order of likelihood:

San Francisco: The Giants have only handed starts to Bumgarner, Hudson, Vogelsong, Petit, Lincecum, and Cain this year. They're going to let one or two of those guys rebound instead of making a move. I think.

Cincinnati: The Cubs won't like dealing with a division rival and the Reds have gotten roughly average starting thus far anyway. The most likely arm to get bumped based on production would be Tony Cingrani, and after his breakout 2013, I doubt they're interested in pulling the plug on the young lefty.

Pittsburgh: Their starting has been dreadful, ranking last in MLB in WAR. Yet again, it's difficult to imagine the Cubs dealing with a rival against whom they'd like to compete in the coming years. Pittsburgh has the prospects to swing the deal, but I think their presence in the NL Central kills any trade.

Colorado: The Rockies have a +12 run differential but they're 31-35, 3.5 games back of Atlanta and trending aggressively in the wrong direction. Holding steady for a few weeks could change their plans, but I suspect they'll hold off on buying, prefer to pair Eddie Butler and Jon Gray atop the rotation next year while making their run.

Milwaukee: The Brewers would be a solid match for the Cubs were it not for their presence in the NL Central. Milwaukee lacks high-end prospects, but they'd have enough interest to make a substantial offer nonetheless. I don't know if our front office could stomach facing Samardzija and Garza regularly.

Los Angeles: I don't know where to rank them because they make no sense. Their pitching has been underwhelming, but Kershaw, Ryu, Greinke, Haren, and Beckett are all signed to big deals with Billingsley and Maholm providing the crutch. They don't make sense based on their starters, but they would line up beautifully with the Cubs given their prospects, especially AAA OF Joc Pederson.

Kansas City: The Royals are living in no man's land with Yordano Ventura, James Shields, and Jason Vargas all pitching well and the next two spots being a mess. Jeremy Guthrie might turn it on, but Samardzija would make sense for them. Still, with Shields an impending free agent and after giving up so much to acquire him, it's hard to imagine the tiny-market Royals making another huge splash.

Chicago White Sox: The White Sox would get serious consideration to be atop this list if they didn't play in Chicago. Their rotation features two strong starters in ace Chris Sale and mid-rotation guy Jose Quintana. John Danks and Erik Johnson are holding down spots near the back but there's nothing else. They're 3.5 games back of Detroit and building for the medium-term, a plan Samardzija fits into rather nicely given his age and controllability. They're not in the top tier though because (i) they are the crosstown team, and (ii) their prospects just aren't exciting. At all. Let's say no to the ChiSox.

Baltimore: The Orioles are in a tricky spot: their starters have all been average or worse while they've scored enough to be in the thick of the wild card race. Between Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Bud Norris, Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Tillman, and Kevin Gausman, they've got six starters who can pitch reasonably well. The need and interest are probably both there and they've certainly got the prospects to swing the deal, but I just can't get a good read on the O's and what they're going to do.

V. The Favorites
These four teams jump out to me as the clubs most likely to swing a big deal for Samardzija given the totality of their circumstances:

Minnesota: The Twins have parlayed average offense and average pitching into a 31-33 record that has them hanging around the race this year. Their fiscal conservatism has them well positioned to absorb Samardzija's contract. Their rotation is set up perfectly to add him with Phil Hughes pitching exceptionally, Kyle Gibson and Kevin Correia pitching well, and Ricky Nolasco holding his own. They're sub-replacement after those four. They absolutely have the farm system to grab Samardzija without giving up Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano. They'd make perfect sense if there weren't competitors.

Seattle: Felix is a superstar, Iwakuma is excellent, Roenis Elias is pitching well this year, James Paxton has been good but hurt (currently on the 60-day DL), and the rest of the starters have produced -0.8 WAR. Taijuan Walker should be ready soon, so Samardzija would result in bumping Elias when he settles back down. The Mariners have significantly underperformed their +26 run differential at 34-32, but they're in the thick of the race and they've put all of their eggs into the near-term basket. They don't have a true headliner to offer the Cubs, but they've got enough prospect talent to find a match.

Boston: They may surprise some, but they make oodles of sense to me. After Jon Lester and John Lackey, their rotation has been underwhelming all year. They've got enough depth to survive, but they may need a big piece to make a push. Further, with Lester halfway through his walk year, it gets more and more likely every day that he leaves in free agency, creating an opening at the top of the rotation. Their front office has the savvy to appreciate Samardzija's contract value, the cash to extend him, the prospects to make the deal, and the need to add a big starter. They'd top this list if it wasn't for...

Toronto: We've heard about the Jays as a match for Samardzija for over a year, and it's for one simple reason: they just make the most sense. Their rotation ranks 15th in WAR with Mark Buehrle pitching wonderfully, Drew Hutchison pitching well, Marcus Stroman looking strong, and R.A. Dickey holding his own. The rest of the list is full a floaters: Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, J.A. Happ, and Liam Hendricks. Only Morrow has a FIP under 4.94...and his ERA of 5.93 reflects tons of walks. He's also on the 60-day DL. The Jays hold a 3.5-game lead in the AL East with an impressive +31 run differential. Alex Anthopolous is GM'ing for his job and he's got the pieces to swing the move.

Pfew! How About Some Trade Packages?
Let's finish the marathon! I'll only look at specific packages from the top four contenders.

I expect the Cubs to be very open minded about what they receive. Many assume that the Cubs will only be interested in receiving pitching or that they must receive pitching for the deal to be adequate. I totally disagree. They just need to maximize value. If the Dodgers offer Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and a projectable low-level arm or two, the Cubs would be nuts to refuse the offer because Pederson plays the outfield and Seager the infield. Why take two red-painted dimes if someone offers you two green-painted quarters? Take the quarters!

Anyway. Here's a handful of examples:

Minnesota: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija and 3B Christian Villanueva to Minnesota for RHP Alex Meyer, LHP Lewis Thorpe, LHP Stephen Gonsalves, and 2B Jorge Polanco

Analysis: As mentioned above, the Twins' excellent minor league system enables them to come up with plenty of creative trade proposals. I've been trying to find deals to clear Villanueva out of the Cubs system given that he's about to get lost; Minnesota is a perfect landing spot with Trevor Plouffe uninspiring and Miguel Sano unlikely to stick at 3B.

Meyer is a huge (6'9", 220 lbs.) righty with a massive fastball and power slider. His changeup is plenty good too. The problem is command, and the track record of pitchers with that kind of body and power stuff isn't exciting. Still, if Meyer clicks, he's going to be really good; he's currently pitching well at AAA, although walks continue to plague him. If Kohl Stewart is on the table, the package can get really interesting very quickly. Thorpe, an Australian 18-year-old, has a long way to go but the pitches to make it as a #2 starter. I touched on Gonsalves yesterday: he's a big lefty who was Brady Aiken's teammate last year and he's got first-round stuff. Finally, Polanco figures to end up as a utility guy instead of as an everyday 2B, but he's got enough bat to make it work. This package probably fits the mold of what folks want to see: one big arm, a couple of projectable arms, and maybe some icing on the cake.

Seattle: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Seattle for RHP Victor Sanchez, RHP Edwin Diaz, LHP Luiz Gohara, and C Tyler Marlette

Analysis: This is the "oh crap, we're still far away" trade option. Seattle's near-MLB prospects consist of Taijuan Walker and fluff. They're not moving Walker for Samardzija, so the Cubs will have to stock up on Seattle's considerable lower-level pitching depth.

There's no true headliner to this deal. Sanchez is a massive teen in AA, where he's learning that command is extremely important. Diaz looks like C.J. Edwards with a wiry frame holding big stuff. Gohara is probably the closest thing to a centerpiece, but he turns 18 at the end of July and hasn't passed extended spring training; he's got a long, long way to go despite his 6'3", 210 lbs. frame. Marlette likely profiles as a bat-first fringe starter, though that could be a nice complement to Welington Castillo.

Sanchez and Marlette would be the first to arrive, likely in 2016, with Diaz and Gohara following at least a year later. This option would be tough to stomach.

Boston: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Boston for LHP Henry Owens, C Blake Swihart, and LHP Trey Ball

Analysis: This is also more like the deal most Cubs fans are probably hoping for. If the BoSox inexplicably made Xander Bogaerts available, I suspect that Jed Hoyer might break his hand shoving the trade into the fax machine for approval from the commissioner's office. Barring that, this deal brings back a reasonable return. Owens is pitching very well at AA currently, and the 2011 first-round-pick is probably ready for AAA. He features an above-average fastball complemented by a pair of solid secondary pitches. At 6'6", 205 lbs., he certainly has the body to start. His primary drawback is that he profiles more as a middle-of-the-rotation arm. Swihart has climbed the ladder methodically and his power is showing up at AA, although his discipline is lacking. He profiles as a better defender than Marlette and he could wrestle the 2016 catching job away from Castillo. Ball is the wild card, 2013's #7 overall selection. He's a big lefty out of Indiana who turns 20 this month and has a 7.12 ERA in A ball. He's going to be a project, but he's got the ceiling to justify being a key piece in a big trade.

Toronto: Cubs trade RHP Jeff Samardzija to Toronto for RHP Aaron Sanchez, LHP Daniel Norris, and OF D.J. Davis

Analysis: With Stroman featuring as a key part of their rotation, the Jays figure to keep him. While it would be possible for them to consummate a deal without including Sanchez, it seems highly unlikely, so Sanchez is included here. Sanchez's prospect star has dimmed significantly in 2014 with a BB/9 of 5.45. He continues to record solid strikeout rates, Toronto just promoted him to AAA, and he's developing the arsenal of a top flight starter. If the command doesn't develop, he's just another arm, but there's still time for the soon-to-be-22-year-old.

Norris is the safe acquisition, ironic given his horrific 2012. He rebounded with a solid year in 2013 in the Midwest League and appears to have worn out his welcome in the Florida State League this year, dominating to the tune of a 1.65 FIP. Norris has a big fastball, an above-average slider, a solid changeup, and a fringe curveball. It's all about the low-to-mid-90s heat though, and he's got the pitches to be a very strong #3 starter.

Davis is the extreme lottery ticket. Almost 20, he has received the rare 80 scouting grade for his speed as well as 50s across the board for his other tools. He's exceptionally raw and likely needs at least a full year at each of A, A+, and AA before plenty of time at AAA too. He could easily flame out - the list of leadoff hitters with a 32% K% in A ball is very short and going 6-for-18 on stolen base attempts is horrendous - and his tools aren't playing well even at his low level. Still, the tools are there and we could be talking about a dynamic player if it all clicks.

Regardless, this deal is driven by Sanchez and Norris, two arms that could hold jobs in the Cubs rotation at some point in 2015.

Conclusion
I still hope that the Cubs extend Samardzija instead of trading him, but if they do, they figure to get a very strong package in return that looks at least something like the packages described above. One possible wrinkle is that the Brewers, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Reds, Rockies, and Royals may all be eligible for a competitive balance draft pick for 2015, an additional asset that could entice the Cubs. Furthermore, the Cubs could also include some of the "slots" of their international amateur free agent bonus pool in order to extract additional prospects from clubs given that the Cubs cannot spend more than $250,000 on any international amateur free agent for the upcoming July 2nd signing period. Unfortunately, moving their top "slot" is basically impossible as, absent some machinations from other teams, the Cubs could only trade their nearly $2.3M slot to Houston or Miami. However, slots #34 ($458,000), #64 ($309,300), and #94 ($206,700) give the Cubs $974,000 of pool space to trade with ease: any MLB club could acquire those slots. Between their $2,288,700 top slot and the $700,000 base amount, the Cubs would still have $2,988,700 to spend on international amateur bonuses, more than enough money to load up on lower bonus projects.

The Samardzija deal could get really interesting. Or it could be really simple. Or it could not happen at all. Gotta love baseball.

Back Toward Reality, Here's a More Realistic Next Eight Months for the Cubs

In my last entry, I spent time reminding folks that, while money can't buy happiness, it can buy a star-studded starting rotation and it can do so in five months. For a Cubs franchise with big bats littering the prospect landscape but only projectable (and largely injured) starting pitching wild cards, this is welcome news. Having shown that a return to the $100M payroll level could net the 2015 Cubs Jon Lester, James Shields, Seth Smith, and an extended Jeff Samardzija with an excellent bullpen and exciting young, powerful lineup, I now turn to a continued rebuilding strategy that doesn't require the club to sign two of the premier pitching options on the free agent market and one of the top bats (no offense Mr. Smith, but that's more an indictment of the paltry bats than a ringing endorsement of your extreme success hitting against righties).

A few quick facts that should be on the table before this post gets rolling:

Fact #1: Through June 11th, the Cubs starting pitching has produced 6.8 WAR (2nd in MLB) and a 3.33 FIP (also 2nd).

Fact #2: Providing for 36 of the 40-man roster spots in 2015, the Cubs project to spend approximately $93,835,000 on the 40-man roster ($69,785,000), international amateur free agent signing bonuses and salaries ($8,450,000), MLB Rule IV draft signing bonuses ($14,950,000), and dead money for player options ($650,000); this includes $3.1M for Darwin Barney and $2.2M for James Russell, to players who may very well find themselves without jobs next year given declining performance and talent influx. It has been at least a decade since the 25-man Opening Day payroll was less than the $93.835M figure cited above, let alone total organizational player personnel spending.

Fact #3: Total organizational expenditures for the categories stated above during the Ricketts ownership tenure:

2010: $156,485,000
2011: $158,305,000
2012: $138,280,050
2013: $126,991,025
2014: $108,231,344

These figures include penalties incurred for exceeding draft and international bonus pool allotments as well as dead money paid to former players or via contract buyouts. It also includes an increasing estimate for draftees signed after the first 10 rounds as well as an increasing estimate of international amateur free agent bonuses of less than $100,000.

Fact #4: Despite the abject failure of Jose Veras, the Cubs bullpen FIP of 3.51 ranks 11th in MLB.

Fact #5: Jason Hammel is pitching out of his mind. His 2014 numbers versus his previous career bests: ERA (2.81 v. 3.43; his only other year under 4.33), FIP (3.02 v. 3.29; his only other year under 3.70), BB/9 (1.94 v. 2.14; his only other year under 3.10), and HR/9 (0.65 v. 0.69). To say that he is peaking would be a massive understatement. Hammel is a nice pitcher and vaguely reliable - he has had some injury issues in the past - but at 31 years old, it's hard to buy into this improvement particularly given that his batted ball rates are actually a bit worse than his career averages.

Fact #6: Kris Bryant is every bit as good as you've heard he is and even better.

With all of that on the table, here's a look at moves that Cubs fans can hope for in the next eight months or so:

Transaction #1: Cubs Trade SP Jason Hammel to Seattle for SP Victor Sanchez (June/July)
Hammel will be attractive to numerous teams as a cheap, efficient fill-in starter. Interested teams will likely include Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Minnesota, the White Sox, Anaheim, and Boston.

The Seattle rotation has been Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, and lots of blank stares. While the Twins have a similar need, the Mariners have the added desperation factor having put all of their eggs in the 2014 basket. Hammel could be a steadying option for them, bridging the gap as James Paxton and particularly Taijuan Walker work their way into rotation jobs. Sanchez is currently serving up homers for breakfast at AA and he tips the scales over 250 lbs. despite his 6'0" frame. However, 19-year-olds justifiably in AA are extremely rare and he's got the arm to take a shot on him. This return for Hammel might be a bit low, but I'm trying to miss low for the sake of realism.

Transaction #2: Cubs Trade RP Wesley Wright and 3B Christian Villanueva to Anaheim for LHP Ricardo Sanchez and RHP Keynan Middleton (July)
This is a bizarre trade on the surface as there are lots of different things going on. From the Cubs perspective, having both Wesley Wright and James Russell presents a luxury that will be valued more highly elsewhere. While Russell's value is down, Wright's is high. Villanueva is about to be squeezed out of the development picture with superior prospects fighting for his job, so the Cubs would be wise to secure some value for him now.

Wright has stymied lefties to the tune of a 1.23 FIP this year and his production would replace what the Angels thought they would have in the now-injured Sean Burnett. Villanueva provides an alternative to the struggling David Freese, although likely not until 2015. Still, for a team largely bereft of position player prospects, Villanueva is a nice addition as an excellent glove and possibly playable bat at 3B.

Sanchez received a nearly $600,000 bonus out of Venezuela last summer. The 5'10" lefty has forever to go to make it, but the Cubs have shown a regular desire to gobble up this type of player. Middleton is another wild card as an extremely raw 3rd-round-pick from 2013. Neither player figures to contribute for the Angels until 2017 at the earliest, so it's hardly a huge loss for them. They'd never give up the pair for Wright alone, but getting Villanueva back makes this package plenty acceptable to the Halos. The Cubs convert two largely superfluous assets into more volatile ones with a slim chance of being extremely useful.

Transaction #3: Cubs Trade UTIL Emilio Bonifacio to New York Yankees for C JR Muprhy (July)
Ironically, while Bonifacio isn't even a good regular, he's the type of player that the Yankees and Red Sox could fight over given his (i) tremendous defensive value at 2B and solid value at CF, (ii) excellent speed, and (iii) passable offense. It may seem strange to see the Yankees trade a player off of their 25-man roster, but Murphy is about to get completely squeezed out in New York: Brian McCann is signed for four more years, Gary Sanchez is about ready for AAA as the club's top offensive prospect, Peter O'Brien has 20 homers this year already and is at AA, and the team spent $1.2M on Venezuelan prospect Luis Torrens in 2012. The Cubs would certainly prefer Torrens, Sanchez, or O'Brien, but it's difficult to imagine the Yankees parting with one of them for just Bonifacio. Murphy is still a solid get, a fringe-starter and strong backup option, something that the Cubs desperately need given the presence of John Baker and Eli Whiteside. Though Murphy is listed high on many Yankees lists, the ceiling is low and he's realistically a reserve.

Transaction #4: Cubs Trade SP Travis Wood to Minnesota for 2B Jorge Polanco, OF Adam Walker, and LHP Stephen Gonsalves (July)
Top Twins pitching prospects Kohl Stewart and Jose Berrios are both at least a couple of years away from making an impact, and with the team surprisingly competitive, another controllable starter would be hugely valuable to the franchise. Target Field has traditionally been a bit more forgiving to flyball pitchers than Wrigley Field, so Wood's paltry 33.6% GB% would be even less of an issue in Minnesota. Wood would slot into the Minnesota rotation behind Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Kevin Correia, and Ricky Nolasco, giving Minnesota five solid options in the incredibly tight AL Central.

Polanco and Walker are both lower-level prospects. Polanco is intriguing as a diminutive switch-hitter who has shown excellent control of the strike zone, strong hitting ability, and a tiny bit of power. He probably profiles best as a roving reserve, but that kind of player has a home on every good team. If the pop reaches a .130 or .140 ISO, he's probably a strong regular at 2B. Walker is much messier with an alarming strikeout rate that may very well sabotage his career. But there's real power to work with (.203 ISO) and plenty of glove for an every day outfield role. Gonsalves was Brady Aiken's teammate at Cathedral Catholic High School in 2013 and the lanky lefty shined in his debut after being a 4th-round-pick in 2013. He's got a long ways to go, but the flyer is likely the piece that pushes the Cubs to pull the trigger.

From the Cubs' perspective, trading Wood has nothing to do with Wood himself and everything to do with the larger plan that the team should employ this year. If they pursue the transactions that follow, Wood may very well find himself out of a starting job anyway, so the club would be well-advised to extract maximum value for him this July.

Transaction #5: Cubs Extend SP Jeff Samardzija for 6 years, $110M (October/November)
Extending Samardzija should be the least controversial proposal in this post. Samardzija is a near-ace with supreme stuff, a relatively fresh arm given his age, and the makeup to lead the staff. He'd do well to get the Homer Bailey extension given that Bailey is two years younger, but given inflation and the "loser tax" the Cubs will have to pay, $5M more seems reasonable.

Transaction #6: Cubs Sign SP Jon Lester for 5 years, $120M (November/December)
I still think that it's unlikely that Lester leaves Boston, but if it does, it's hard to imagine him ending up anywhere but Wrigley. Although the current Cubs regime came to Boston just after Lester was drafted, they watched his entire career and a built a World Series-winning rotation around him. A five-year deal would carry him through his age-35 season, a seemingly unlikely contract from this front office given their stated preferences. However, I think they'd make a massive exception for Lester and I certainly wouldn't fault them for doing so.

Transaction #7: Cubs Trade OF Albert Almora, OF Jorge Soler, 1B Dan Vogelbach, RP Armando Rivero, and $10M to Miami for OF Giancarlo Stanton (December/January); Cubs Extend Stanton for 6 years, $133M
Boom! Jeffrey Loria has a habit of not paying for players, and Stanton is on track to test the arbitration system records. He is a free agent following the 2016 season, and while Miami could keep him around for a playoff push in 2015, it's basically impossible to imagine Loria forking over $12M+ for Stanton in 2015. Stanton is likely going to hit the trade market.

This haul is absolutely massive for the Marlins and it gives them the offensive prospects that they lack to pair with their pitching surplus. Just as importantly for them, Almora is from south Florida, Torres is Venezuelan, and both Soler and Rivero are Cuban. This is solidly superior to the offer the Marlins accepted for Miguel Cabrera; it's hard to imagine them turning it down.

For the Cubs, this trade represents a new reality in baseball: marquee bats rarely, if ever, hit the free agent market. With Anthony Rizzo in tow and both Kris Bryant and Javier Baez on the way, this type of acquisition may seem unnecessary. On the contrary, I find this to be the best move that the Cubs can make for Bryant and Baez, placing the spotlight much more squarely on Stanton while enabling the prospects to ease their way into the Majors without such a burden on their shoulders. The extension covers Stanton through his age-30 season, enabling him to hit free agency with another massive payday in front of him. It represents salaries of $12M, $18M, $25M, $25M, $25M, and $25M over the six years.

Cashing in the marquee outfield prospects and the blocked 1B Vogelbach as well as some of the club's spending power to acquire a top-ten player before his age-25 season is a truly wise decision from my vantage point.

Transaction #8: Cubs Sign SP Brandon McCarthy for 1 year, $8M
McCarthy's absurd 22% HR/FB% is bound to drop significantly and when it does, he's just another starter with a sub-2.00 BB/9% who can help bridge the gap as Cubs pitching prospects progress up the pipeline. McCarthy is a placeholder but a strong one at that. This move is the one that's less clearly realistic compared to the prior seven.

Pfew! Where Does That Leave Us?
Well, part of the nature of so many transactions is that they can be disorienting. I'll provide a simple recap of what the roster looks like, both in Chicago and on the farm:

Starting Pitchers
Jon Lester - $24M
Jeff Samardzija - $10M
Jake Arrieta - 1.8M (approx)
Brandon McCarthy - $8M
Edwin Jackson - $11M

Analysis: That rotation is very strong...and it better be for $54.8M next year. Kyle Hendricks provides depth as the ready sixth starter. Some of the pressure on Arrieta is alleviated given the depth behind him. This rotation is strong, although it's only strong and not elite.

Relief Pitchers
Hector Rondon - $0.52M (approx)
Neil Ramirez - $0.52M (approx)
Justin Grimm - $0.52M (approx)
Arodys Vizcaino - $0.53M (approx)
Pedro Strop - $1.9M (approx)
James Russell - $2.2M (approx)
Brian Schlitter - $0.52M (approx)

Analysis: For just $6.71M, that's one heckuva bullpen. There's some solid depth with the wave of pitching prospects ready to make noise and the likes of Zac Rosscup and Blake Parker still looking for jobs. We've got plenty of arms and with Rondon and Ramirez both looking incredibly sharp, the arrow is decidedly pointing up. Rosscup could replace Russell straightaway, pushing the group's cost down around $5M even.

Catchers
Welington Castillo - $2.9M (approx)
JR Murphy - $0.51M (approx.)

Analysis: This remains the clear weak link in the organization, although Castillo is an average starter and just $3.41M on the position group keeps the price right. Murphy provides a solid cushion while allowing Rafael Lopez to prove that his offensive improvement from 2014 is real at AAA before pushing for an MLB job.

Infielders
Starlin Castro - $6M
Anthony Rizzo - $5M
Kris Bryant - $0.52M (approx)
Javier Baez - $0.52M (approx)
Luis Valbuena - $2.2M (approx)
Logan Watkins - $0.52M (approx)

Analysis: Valbuena has played his way into a valuable utility/bench role with some strong defense, tremendous walking, and now some batting average too. But this infield should go, from right to left, Rizzo, Castro/Baez, Baez/Castro, and Bryant. Wowzers. $14.76M gets the group in 2015.

Outfielders
Giancarlo Stanton - $12M
Justin Ruggiano - $3M (approx)
Arismendy Alcantara - $0.52M (approx)
Junior Lake - $0.53M (approx)
Ryan Sweeney - $1.5M

Analysis: I think Alcantara is bound for CF given an organizational need at the position and Baez and Castro both needing middle infield homes. Second, I think that Junior Lake can be the seventh or eighth best starter on an excellent team given his composite contributions to the team; at the very least, it's worth giving him a continued look to see if he can put things together. Ruggiano and Sweeney provide a nice cushion for Alcantara's first MLB gig while also offering solid flexibility off of the bench. This group comes with a $17.55M price tag.

I imagine that the lineup consisting of these players would go something like this:

2B/SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
2B/SS Baez
LF Lake
CF Alcantara
C   Castillo

But What About the Farm?
The farm serves a very important purpose: to produce assets that can be converted into MLB quality talent. Given the above formulation, the Cubs own farm system produced six of the eight starters with marquee prospects being used to acquire Rizzo and Stanton. That's exactly how it should be done.

If all of these transactions took place, I think that the club's prospects would be left in the following approximate order:

1. LF Kyle Schwarber
2. SP Paul Blackburn
3. SP Jen-Ho Tseng
4. SP Kyle Hendricks
5. SP Pierce Johnson
6. RP C.J. Edwards
7. CF Jacob Hannemann
8. OF Eloy Jimenez
9. SS Gleyber Torres
10. SP Stephen Gonsalves
11. 2B Jorge Polanco
12. SP Victor Sanchez
13. SP Duane Underwood
14. SP Ricardo Sanchez

This group includes only one draftee from the 2014 class: Jake Stinnett, Mark Zagunis, Carson Sands, Justin Steele, Dylan Cease, and James Norwood as well as 2013 draftees Tyler Skulina, Trevor Clifton, and Rob Zastryzny could all make noise while the similarly drafted 2012 pitchers are all returning to health. International amateurs Jefferson Mejia and Erling Moreno offer additional projectable arms.

This top-ten list isn't terribly exciting, but the system is overflowing with useful arms. For that matter, the dearth of offensive prospects atop the list is hardly alarming as the reality is that the lineup is absurdly young: Welington Castillo would be the only regular over the age of 25 in 2015. Castro, Rizzo, Stanton, and Lake will all be 25 while Bryant and Alcantara will be 23 with Baez bringing up the rear at 22. Schwarber figures to move rather quickly, possibly forcing Lake and Alcantara into a fight for playing time in CF. This could be the lineup by the end of 2015 with only a series of eminently reasonable moves:

2B/SS Castro
1B Rizzo
RF Stanton
3B Bryant
LF Schwarber
2B/SS Baez
CF Alcantara/Lake
C   Castillo

Wow. Just wow.

But We Can't Afford That....Right?
The above 25-man roster comes in south of $100M for 2015 at $97.23M, although the true number is $107.23M given the cash payment to the Marlins for taking on Jorge Soler's expensive deal. There are significant increases in 2016 - a $10M raise for Samardzija, a $6M raise for Stanton, and slowly escalating deals for Rizzo and Castro in addition to arbitration raises for Arrieta, Castillo, Valbuena, and some of the relievers - but the total 25-man payroll should still be around $120M in 2016. Incidentally, 2016 also figures to be the first year after which the Cubs have had a successful season in the prior year, knocking down their expenditures on the draft and international amateur bonuses. Furthermore, Edwin Jackson's deal expires after the 2016 season. Obviously he could be flipped sooner if one of the gaggle of prospects pushing for his job outperforms him in the interim.

The Cubs could pull this off making a series of responsible, well-thought moves suitable for a major franchise. The total player personnel expenditures would certainly jump, but what's the point of making all this money if it can't be reinvested in the team to produce a real winner?