This could be a long-winded post about the stupidity of mid-season college football polls. There's an almost endless stream of absurdities one can levy on these evaluations. My favorite tend to be the following: there is absolutely no chance that the head coaches of NCAA Division I (FBS still sounds stupid) watch every other game played in a given week. For that matter, there is no chance that they watch more than a small handful of other games. Realistically, given the time demands of NCAA head coaches, they probably don't watch more than a couple of plays from other games in a given week with the exception of scouting video. Yet one third of the BCS formula is calculated using this poll. From what I understand, most coaches don't fill out their own version of the poll, instead signing off on the rankings of a staffer. That makes more sense than coaches making blind rankings, but it's hardly an ideal alternative.
As you can tell, I could go on for hours about this. Instead, I'm going to use one incredibly simple case study.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs.
In the interest of full disclosure, I'm a Dan Mullen fan. I think he's a really solid coach on his way to a more prestigious job. He had a strong showing at Florida, using a creative approach with uniquely talented players en route to two national championships. His work at MSU has been even more impressive, somehow parlaying sub-par talent into three straight winning seasons. Mullen deserves credit for his success.
But #11?
If the Bulldogs manage to be #11 at the end of the season, almost every non-Alabama school should consider immediately firing their coach and handing their program to Mullen.
To say that they're #11 right now really only furthers two purposes. First, it creates interest in games that otherwise wouldn't likely be that interesting when a squad gets a number next to their name. Second, it gives the media something to talk about.
I, for one, really dislike mid-season polls. If they were just a fun way to compare teams among fans, that would be fine. But they're much more than that. Polls are the main way that programs are measured against each other over time. So if a team can be ranked 24th to start the year and they schedule the dregs of Division I football to inflate their record early on, they might spend half of the season in the polls despite being a poor team. On the flip side, teams are severely punished for scheduling strong opponents early in the season. For example, Michigan started the year ranked 8th in both polls. Now, I thought they were listed about 10 spots too high, but pollsters obviously thought enough of the team to have them in the top 10. Then they were thoroughly handled by the nation's best team, Alabama...so they dropped 11 spots. Mid-season polls suggest that Michigan isn't nearly as strong as many expected. Reality gives us the course of the season to figure out how good a team is instead of trying to compare teams experiencing vastly different games week to week. Many pollsters are also unwilling to drop a team that wins. Thus, in the mind of some, a road win against a strong opponent is no more valuable than a home win against a weak one. That's absurd to me.
Back to Mississippi State. At this point in the season, it's hard to say they've done anything other than hold serve. They have played just two road games, a 30-24 win at Troy and a 27-14 victory at Kentucky. It's not bad to have beaten those teams; it just doesn't mean much. Kentucky is a putrid 1-7 while Troy's best win at 4-3 is probably against Alabama-Birmingham; plus, they lost at home to Western Kentucky.
Moving to the home slate, the Bulldogs' resume doesn't actually improve much. They beat I-AA Jackson State in blowout fashion. They handled inexplicably horrendous Auburn (1-6). They similarly handled South Alabama. They enjoyed something of a shootout win over Tennessee (41-31), which sounded better before Tennessee was on its way to dropping to 0-5 in the SEC today. That leaves just one more win: a shellacking of the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.
Just so we're clear, I'm not being critical of MSU. As I said, they have beaten every team on their schedule, in exactly the way that good teams do. You have to handle the weak part of your schedule to have a great season. But how many wins can the Bulldogs expect given the rest of their schedule? They play at Alabama tonight, a likely 20+ point loss. They follow by hosting Texas A&M, a likely two-score defeat. They then travel to Baton Rouge where they might not score. The season ends with a home date against previously wildly overrated Arkansas and a trip to rival Ole Miss. If MSU ends the season 8-4, does that mean they blew it during the second half of their schedule. Of course not. They could play markedly better football for the last month and end up 7-5.
They deserve credit for their play thus far. That credit should come in the form of a 7-0 record. Instead, they enjoy the distinction of people saying they are the 11th best team in the country right now (or something along those lines). Their final month will be viewed as a disappointment and that just doesn't seem right.
Now if they finish 12-0...
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