Just under two weeks ago, I moved from the cool Midwest to balmy North Florida. There are many benefits of my new domicile, but one of the greatest is my proximity to Daytona Beach, and, thus, the Daytona Cubs. Thanks to a week of powerful rainstorms from tropical storm Andrea, the D-Cubs had a doubleheader on Sunday night and I settled into my fourth row seat directly behind the plate for 14 innings of baseball with Ben Wells and a radar gun sitting right in front of me.
Below are my musings on the players I saw. I have tried my darndest to avoid letting my preconceived notions of the players skew my thoughts. That will be particularly difficult with some. Regardless, here are my notes that I took during the game and my thoughts on the players with a few hours to digest what I saw.
Before beginning, it is essential to know the competition. The Brevard County Manatees' Game 1 starter was Cody Scarpetta. The beefy righty was the number two prospect in the Brewers system three years ago, but 2012 Tommy John surgery has derailed his career; his June 9th start was just his second since returning to the mound. He worked at 88-91 with a hitch in his delivery that made timing a bit tricky. He also threw a sweeping curveball in the high-70s. Unfortunately for Scarpetta, he is in the early stages of recovery and showed the typical lack of command. Scarpetta lasted just 2 2/3 innings. His replacement, Chad Pierce, threw almost identical pitches, although he worked more regularly in the high-80s for his 2 1/3 innings. The Game 1 catcher, Cameron Garfield, had a 20 arm.
The Game 2 starting pitcher, lanky lefty Brent Suter, enjoyed far more success over his 5 1/3 innings, but he did so with even less stuff. He worked at 84-86, hitting 88 a couple of times, regularly mixing in a 67-70 slurve. He also occasionally threw a harder curve at 78. Suter had tremendous command of his two main pitches, although it did begin to falter as the Cubs rallied in the sixth.
One final note: I wrote the comments below for all of the batters on Sunday night, so any comments about Javier Baez are unaffected by his game-of-the-year performance on Monday. Without further adieu, we're on to the Cubs.
John Andreoli, LF
Stats: 2-5, 2 BB, 2 SO, 4 R, 3 SB
Notes: Great approach; first strikeout was horrible call by umpire, should have been another walk; very good speed; runs bases well but safely; nearly killed pitcher with screaming comebacker; started G2-winning rally by beating out tough infield single; while DHing in Game 1, was in the dugout with his helmet and batting gloves on, bat in hand, dissecting his next plate trip with the hitting coach; appears eminently coachable with good leadership skills
Thoughts: I was thoroughly impressed by Andreoli. He did not put a ball in play in four plate appearances in Game 1 yet looked fantastic doing so, showing a keen awareness of the strike zone. In Game 2, Andreoli made excellent, loud contact twice. He doesn't appear to have any power projection, but the rest of his game looks good enough to get a cup of coffee.
Projection: MLB 5th outfielder
Tim Saunders, 2B
Stats: 2-3, 2B, BB, SO, 3 R, RBI, 2 SB
Notes: Opened G1 scoring by taking a nice easy swing to line a high fastball for a 1B up the middle; too fast for horrible catcher; reacted well to pitches, using all fields; good speed; good athlete; should handle 2B fine
Thoughts: I had heard plenty about Saunders, a former 32nd rounder. He looked like a natural, especially at the plate. His approach was quiet but sound, leading to good swings at hittable pitches. He won't have any power in his game.
Projection: Fringe MLB reserve
Zeke DeVoss, CF
Stats: 1-3, 2B, 2 BB, R, RBI, 3 SB
Notes: Good athlete in smallish frame; looks almost uncomfortable hitting left-handed; very natural right-handed; smooth, powerful stroke from right side; covers plenty of ground in CF; extremely aggressive lead offs
Thoughts: I was excited to see DeVoss, supposedly a relatively polished offensive prospect from Florida State. Overall, I was disappointed in his offensive game despite strong numbers and arguably the best hit ball of the night into the left-center gap. I'm likely blinded by how uncomfortable he looked hitting as a lefty. He likely won't have any power in his game.
Projection: Non-MLB
Javier Baez, SS
Stats: 1-5, 2B, 2 BB, SO, RBI, 2 SB
Notes: Just missed crushing a high fastball, hitting towering fly to center; takes a SOOYA (Swing Out Of Your A..) everytime; screamed liner just foul on 92 pulled inside fastball; looked awful striking out chasing curve in dirt outside; chased high fastball on 2-0; runner caught in rundown, but Baez threw ball into stands on a wild, out of control throw, costing team a run; showed good composure taking back-to-back questionable outside strikes, then lacing a 2-strike 2B into RCF gap; badly pulled off on a meatball changeup - staring at LF wall when swinging; enough speed - both steals came against strong defensive catcher; extremely heads up steal of uncovered 3B; very discerning in final PA; very good range and fluid motions fielding batted balls; nonchalant approach when fielding pop-ups
Thoughts: I was giddy to see Baez in person. While there were some disappointments, there was also way more than enough to encourage. He has a very high energy approach to all phases of the game, repeatedly making diving attempts on clear ground ball singles, keeping two of them in the infield, and taking vicious cuts on every swing. I was alternately impressed and frustrated by his aggressiveness. I hated the errant throw and chasing an up-out-of-the-zone 2-0 fastball; I loved how loud all of his contact was and how he keenly swiped an uncovered 3B. I had been hopeful that Baez could reach Chicago as a regular by 2015, but he will need more seasoning to reach his very high ceiling, even if his approach at the plate was more advanced that I expected to see. He drew back-to-back walks off of Suter, a command-and-control lefty with a pristine 1.85 BB/9 entering the game, including a beautiful plate appearance during the game-winning rally where he swung at hittable pitches and watched balls. The offensive ceiling is stratospheric. He likely can make it as an MLB SS, but he lacks the range/arm combination of Starlin Castro, so I think a move to 2B or 3B - given his strong arm - may be in his rather distant future.
Projection: MLB regular with good power, #2 or #5 hitter; will push for All-Star appearances
Jorge Soler, RF
Stats: 1-7, 2B, 2 RBI
Notes: Four ugly first-pitch swings, 3x with RISP; unnecessarily aggressive at plate; looks stiff with basic movements; scouts behind me commented that he doesn't run out grounders/pop-ups; with 2 strikes, opposing pitchers looked to breaking ball every time; crushed mistake pitch on inner half off LF wall; three nubbers - too excited?; took a defensive swing on 1-1 fastball; tremendous jump on sinking line drive down the line - made a rather tough play look easy
Thoughts: I was most excited to see Soler, and he left me feeling disappointed and questioning his ceiling. He made tons of contact, so much so that I worry about his ability to work counts. He regularly reached out of the zone and made enough contact to put the ball in play, but only once did he display a powerful swing. Perhaps he deserves more credit for knocking in a pair of runs with grounders, but I expect more from a middle-of-the-order bat. I was expecting him to be a more dynamic athlete. He could still prove to be an impact player, but his approach at the plate needs to be much more focused on making powerful contact, not merely avoiding 2-strike counts. I was also disappointed that it took him so long to reach top speed as a baserunner. If he is to have any base stealing ability, he needs to put in a lot of work on his takeoff. He should have no trouble sticking in RF and will be an asset there defensively.
Projection: MLB regular with good power, #5 hitter; could still be #4 hitter with polished approach
Dustin Geiger, 1B
Stats: 3-6, HR, BB, SO, 4 RBI
Notes: Good approach; good swing; looks a bit small for 1B; smooth action at the plate; plays with confidence
Thoughts: What a pleasant surprise. I was familiar with Geiger's solid production entering the game, but I was very pleasantly surprised with the 1B. Geiger hit the doubleheader's only home run, a fly into the LCF gap. His offensive game appeared very advanced with a good feel for the zone complemented by a smooth, strong swing. Every time he got a pitch over the inner half, he crushed it. Geiger likely won't ever hit for enough power to be an everyday first baseman at the Major League level, but there is enough to like in his offensive profile to think that he can be an asset on a 25-man roster. With Rizzo and Vogelbach on board, Geiger, 21, could make for trade bait at some point.
Projection: MLB reserve, good bench bat
Ben Carhart, 3B
Stats: 1-5, 2B, BB, 2 SO, R
Notes: Laced 2B to right field corner; very solid defensively; stocky
Thoughts: Carhart looks the part of a player who is maxed out at Daytona. He isn't overmatched at all, but he does not appear to have the skills to keep climbing the organizational ladder. The defense is really nice with very smooth movements and a calm approach to fielding. It's just clear that he isn't even supposed to be the starter in A ball, only getting the gig with Stephen Bruno recovering from a hamstring injury.
Projection: Non-MLB
Chadd Krist, C
Stats: 1-3, 2 SO
Notes: None
Thoughts: Krist didn't stand out at all. He doesn't appear to have any special skills. He actually reminded me quite a bit of Steve Clevenger: very solid defensively with a good offensive approach but no tools. There is no power potential in his swing or his frame. That plays reasonably well in the low minors, but that's about it.
Projection: Non-MLB
Wes Darvill, 2B
Stats: 1-3, SO
Notes: Very lanky, looks awkward in that he hasn't really grown into his gangly frame yet; compact swing
Thoughts: Darvill looked like the athletic British Columbian he is. He is a good baseball player, but in many ways he still has the look of someone figuring out the game. He has no power in his frame which explains his very compact swing. Even if everything comes together for him, his offensive profile isn't exciting, even if he nearly killed the pitcher with a screaming comebacker. At times he looks like he's playing softball offensively.
Projection: Non-MLB
Yaniel Cabezas, DH (C)
Stats: 0-2, DP
Notes: None
Thoughts: While Krist will likely climb to Tennessee or even Iowa before his prospect train stalls out, Cabezas is already completely overmatched. I was actually surprised to see him playing professional ball. I assumed that he was very young, still acclimating to the United States. Turns out he is 24. Perhaps he has excellent defensive skills; I just didn't see anything encouraging.
Projection: Non-MLB
Taiwan Easterling, LF
Stats: 0-3, 2 SO
Notes: None
Thoughts: I have seen Easterling's name pop up plenty of times while searching through minor league box scores, so I know that he has done enough things to generate at least a bit of excitement. I just don't see it. He isn't athletic enough for a corner outfield profile with no power in his game. He did make a nice throw to the plate trying to cut down a runner, though he missed just up the third base line.
Projection: Non-MLB
Taylor Davis, C
Stats: 0-2
Notes: None
Thoughts: Davis didn't show anything that suggested he will climb the ladder beyond Daytona, although he did not appear poor defensively.
Projection: Non-MLB
Kyler Burke, SP
Stats: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 2B allowed, 1 BB, 5 SO, 2 R, 1 ER, Win
Notes: Good running action on fastball; worked at 87-88 through three innings, hitting 89; slider had some two plane break at 79-81, but only threw 2-3 times; bottom fell out of excellent changeup at 78-81; routinely fooled hitters with changeup, his strikeout pitch; command issues with changeup early in game; no feel for curveball whatsoever in first three innings, warm-ups included; plenty of curveballs second time through the lineup, working in the mid-70s; very little stamina: fastball velocity down to 84-86, hitting 87, by fourth inning
Thoughts: I was excited about seeing Burke on the bump having followed his career as an outfielder since the Cubs acquired him for Michael Barrett. Upon seeing Burke's first few deliveries, I had a pair of unconnected thoughts. First, he lacks the velocity to make it as a starting pitcher. Second, his delivery is very smooth, stunningly so for a converted outfielder. His mechanics were very repeatable, except on his curveball. He didn't overpower anyone with his heater. However, his changeup is a Major League caliber offering. I don't think that he can squeeze any more velocity out of his arm, but he should absolutely head to Tennessee immediately to see if he might be able to make it to Chicago soon. Despite the mid-career switch to the mound, he is too advanced for Florida State League hitters. He will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason.
Projection: Fringe MLB reliever
P.J. Francescon, SP
Stats: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 2B allowed, 2 BB, 7 SO, 2 R, 2 ER
Notes: Good tailing fastball; worked 90-92, dropped to 88 a few times, hit 94 a few times; does not appear to have any downward movement; show-me slider used sparingly, at 82; poor command of slider; excellent changeup at 81-84; changeup has identical movement to fastball and mechanically identical to fastball; good command and control of changeup; loopy slurve at 76, worked in regularly the second time through but left up in zone
Thoughts: It's hard to be excited about a 5'11", 24-year-old 40th round pick from Trevecca Nazarene, but it happened to me. Francescon struck out the leadoff man to begin the game, then surrendered four consecutive hits before retiring 11 in a row, including four via strikeout. His stat line is deceptively poor; after allowing a leadoff 2B in the fifth followed by a sacrifice bunt, Francescon utilized his open bases, unintentionally intentionally walking the two dangerous lefties he faced and striking our the second and fourth hitting righties. A pair of truly horrendous starts are largely responsible for his middling line on the year - he allowed seven runs in three innings in an April start and was left in to allow 10 runs in five innings in May. The pitcher that I saw should climb the ladder with a shot to pitch in the Show in a couple of years. He won't have a long MLB career if he makes it, but he has more stuff than many Major Leaguers and enough pitchability to make it work.
Projection: MLB spot starter or short-term long reliever
Yao-Lin Wang, RP
Stats: 2 IP, 2 H, SO
Notes: Threw almost exclusively fastballs; worked 88-90, reaching back for 92; little movement on heater; decent curveball with 10-to-4 movement; really lived off of his fastball; deliberate, drawn out delivery with the speed of Hideo Nomo
Thoughts: I know that Wang has produced some nice results as a pro, but I didn't see much to excite. His fastball is too straight for the low-90s, and I didn't see him throw a changeup despite his tossing approximately 40 pitches. His body should be able to handle plenty of innings; I just doubt that the results will continue for long enough to justify giving him too many.
Projection: Non-MLB
Eduardo Figueroa, RP
Stats: 2 IP, H, BB, 4 SO, Win
Notes: Big, electric fastball; sat at 94, hitting 95 and 96 once each; hung one changeup at 85; tight, downward breaking slider at 82-85; absolutely embarrassed hitters with his slider; shattered a bat with an inside fastball; lost control with two outs in the 7th
Thoughts: Where in the world did he come from? Figueroa had a man's arm among boys. His numbers on the season are dreadful, but the pitcher I saw looked more like a setup man on a rehab assignment than a low minor leaguer who has never pitched beyond the Florida State League. Perhaps a light bulb finally went off; perhaps I just happened to catch the night of his life. Regardless, I was very encouraged by what I saw.
Projection: MLB reliever
FINAL THOUGHT
It is overwhelmingly clear that the organization is imploring batters to work deep into counts. I largely wrote off the plethora of walks in the early portion of Game 1 to Scarpetta's return from surgery. However, there were tons of deep counts and three more walks in Game 2 against a strike zone pounding hurler. Although the team lost both ends of a doubleheader today, they drew an absurd 19 walks over 14 innings. On Sunday, Soler was the only player in the top six of the lineup who showed a poor approach, and the book on him for his entire time in the States has included a great approach. I assume that I caught him in a funk.
The approach of the hitters sometimes shows through a box score while other times it doesn't. The organizational philosophy is taking hold.
Wednesday, June 12, 2013
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Chicago Cubs: MLB Draft in 2013 and Beyond
Draft day is here. Although Major League Baseball has taken a number of steps to increase the popularity of the Rule 4 draft - most notably making it into a televised event - MLB draft day generally doesn't generate the same buzz its NFL or NBA counterparts. While that isn't going to change anytime soon, Cubs fans have reason to celebrate this year. In an extremely shallow draft with only a pair of elite talents, the Cubs have a top-two pick. Thus, the answer to the prompt posed in the title is very easy: the Cubs select whoever the Astros do not. As of about 7:15pm tonight, the Cubs will almost certainly own the rights to either Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray or Stanford RHP Mark Appel. For a team in need of more impact building blocks, that is tremendous news.
I would prefer to see the Cubs select Appel. He is the safer of the two picks, should reach the Majors quickly, and has very little leverage as a college senior. Gray has the higher ceiling with triple-digit heat, but Appel's floor is likely that of a third starter. He just makes too much sense for the Cubs right now. Regardless, either player immediately becomes the Cubs top pitching prospect and realistically a top five pitcher in the organization as a whole.
Beyond simply developing a preference for Gray or Appel, the MLB draft presents a slew of interesting topics for consideration. Here are a few of them:
1. Draft Bonus Pools
In an effort to curb runaway spending on the draft by wealthier teams, MLB's most recent collective bargaining agreement (CBA) provides new bonus pools with stiff penalties for teams that exceed those pools. The pool only applies to a team's picks in the top ten rounds of the draft unless a team spends greater than $100K on a pick in the 11th or later round, at which point the excess of that player's bonus beyond $100K is applied to the team's pool. The bonuses are calculated by draft slot, although the actual player's bonus need not match the MLB-designed amount.
By way of example, the slot value for the sixth overall selection in the 2012 draft was $3.25M. The Cubs chose Albert Almora with that pick and ended up paying him a $3.9M bonus; however, because the club signed the vast majority of their other picks in the first ten rounds for below slot value, they exceeded their $8.307M pool by just $373.8K. This trend was followed by most teams, selecting college seniors in the latter half of the first ten rounds and giving them bonus of only a few thousand dollars. Because the Cubs overspent their pool by 4.5%, they paid a 75% tax on the overage. Penalties beyond the 5% excess immediately become much more severe. The list of possible penalties:
0% < amount < 5%: 75% tax on overage
5% < amount < 10%: 75% tax on overage AND loss of next year's 1st round pick
10% < amount < 15%: 100% tax on overage AND loss of next year's 1st AND 2nd round picks
15% < amount: 100% tax on overage AND loss of next two 1st round picks
The penalties prefer two violations: that by less than 5% and that by greater than 15%. The most valuable asset in the draft is the picks, the opportunity to acquire players without competing with the other 29 teams. Players, agents, and the teams are all keenly aware of this, although no team has ventured beyond the 5% overage as of yet. The incentive to blow past the 15% mark presents itself very clearly and could apply to the Cubs as early as next year or, more likely, in 2015. I have not seen any sports writers discuss this approach, so allow me to be the first.
Every year before 2012, teams would take later round fliers on excellent players who seemed unlikely to sign with a professional team out of high school due to a solid college commitment. The Yankees, Red Sox, and even Tigers were masters of blowing past slot recommendations for picks, perhaps best exemplified by Tigers RHP Rick Porcello. Porcello fell all the way to #27 overall in 2007 due to his extreme bonus demands and solid commitment to North Carolina. The recommended bonus for the 27th pick was $1.17M. The Tigers blew the bank, guaranteeing Porcello $7M on a Major League deal that included a $3.5M bonus. Notwithstanding their rushing him to the majors and stunting his growth, the Tigers spent a paltry sum to get 150 starts out of Porcello in advance of his 25th birthday. The Cubs rarely took advantage of this approach, although they finally did with North Carolina commitment RHP Dillon Maples in 2011, awarding him a $2.5M bonus as a 14th round pick, the same amount slotted for the 5th overall pick that year. The value here is obvious: a premium talent acquired at the extremely low cost of a 14th round pick and $2.5M. To a team with revenue of $258M that year, signing Maples was a no-brainer. The new rules have attempted to make this tougher.
Hopefully the 2015 Cubs have the look of a perennial contender with premier talents like RF Jorge Soler, SS Javier Baez, CF Albert Almora, and SP Pierce Johnson settling into contributing roles to complement prime stars 1B Anthony Rizzo, SS Starlin Castro, and SP Jeff Samardzija. With a perfect storm of young talent arriving in 2015, the Cubs could be looking at a relatively high draft spot in June 2015 despite the fact that the team would be pushing for a playoff spot with a young core. If that occurs, they can take a riskier approach to the draft. If there is a talent such as Maples - or ideally a handful of like-situated talents - the Cubs could take the approach of loading up on way-over-slot players. Because the penalties stop escalating at 15% excess - that is, the penalty for 15% over slot is the same as 200% over - the Cubs could seek the absolute best talent in every round and determine to sign that player regardless of cost. If it takes $3M or so to sign potential first round picks away from strong college commitments, why not do that 10 times in the same draft? The total cost would be huge: roughly $40M spent on the total draft class and the loss of first round picks in 2016 and 2017. However, if the team is good, those picks are much less valuable as late first round choices and the total reward is absurd with 10 new premium prospects that would normally require 10 first round picks to acquire. The problem with this approach is obvious: you must go all-in as failure to sign any of the picks represents a completely wasted selection. It would require a perfect storm, one that could very well occur for the 2015 Cubs: a strong, young core with the look of a perennial contender, a secure front office, and an owner willing to spend huge sums of money.
2. Signability
Until a team pursues such an aggressive draft, signability will remain a huge concern, especially of the top choice. If a team signs less highly rated college players in rounds 2-10 for well-below slot deals but then fails to use that excess to sign the top choice, they do get that top pick again in the next year's draft but they also lose the chance to select betters players in rounds 2-10 of the current year's draft, a devastating blow.
For the 2013 Cubs, signability mostly means that of Appel. There are a pair of factors that should keep his price more reasonable and a trio of factors that should keep it sky high. First, Appel is a college senior. If he fails to sign again this year, his only real alternative is a year of Independent League ball before re-reentering the draft in 2014. At some point he has to start his career. That plays into the second factor: because he is overwhelmingly likely to be chosen in the top two, he will likely sign for a bonus of north of $7M. He just isn't going to do much better than that as a draftee. The Cubs have some nice leverage here.
However, three factors will push Appel's price up. First and most important, he is represented by Scott Boras. Every agent wants to get the best deal for their player; Boras will get every penny for Appel. Boras does his job better than any other agent, something that doesn't bother me given the limited earning period for professional athletes and the insane wealth of MLB team owners. Second, Appel is the best player in this draft. While Gray may have a higher ceiling - and that is debatable - it isn't much higher and Appel has more consistently plowed through the collegiate and international opposition. Finally, Appel made the bold decision to return to Stanford for his senior year after being a top-ten pick, so he likely wants to show the baseball world that his decision was worth it. A $3M increase in his draft bonus will do that (although I'd argue that the strongest bet on his talent would have been signing for less last year, thus presumably moving him one year closer to MLB free agency and tacking an extra year of MLB salary onto the end of his career...but I digress).
A few factors beyond those addressed already impact signability from the team's perspective, one of which is unique to college seniors like Appel. First, teams receive compensation in the form of a like-situated selection in the next year's draft when they fail to sign a player chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. For example, the Pirates have the 9th choice in this year's draft as compensation for Appel spurning their 2012 offer. Second, teams lose the slot value from their bonus pool when they fail to sign a player selected with that slot. For example, Cubs' entire bonus pool in 2013 is $10,556,500. The #2 overall pick has a bonus of $6,708,400 while their second round pick is $1,361,900. If they fail to sign their second round pick, they cannot assign $1,361,900 to other players; they lose that money completely, reducing their bonus pool to $9,194,600. Drafting a player who the team plans not to sign has no benefit. Finally, MLB moved up the signing deadline for high school and collegiate junior players to July 15. However, that deadline does not apply to college seniors who must sign before one week prior to the 2014 draft. As such, Appel is likely to wait until all of the Cubs other picks have signed and then demand at least the entire bonus pool plus 5%. If the nine picks other than Appel have signed for a total of $3.2M, Appel would make the following offer:
$11,084,325 (total pool + 5%) - $3.2M (amount spent) - $1 (to keep Cubs below 5% overage) = $7,884,324.
Given that the recommended bonus for the top overall pick is $7,790,400, Appel would have an almost impossible time turning down that amount.
3. Need v. "Best Player Available"
One quick final note. Generally football fans want their teams to draft the "best player available" regardless of that player's position. In the baseball draft, given the extreme gap between draft day and the draftees Major League debut, this argument gets pushed to the extreme. I'm often frustrated by the argument in football, but it pushes me over the edge in baseball. It is absurd to always take BPA. For example, if the top player on a team's draft board is a catcher when their selection comes up in every round of the draft, should they select 40 catchers? Of course not. Teams should always determine the relative value of a pick, even in baseball. Teams can almost always choose pitchers and they can almost always select up-the-middle position players. But with Anthony Rizzo signed for the next nine years and Dan Vogelbach a top-five position player prospect, should the Cubs take Colin Moran - a likely long-term first baseman - if they like him 1% more than Mark Appel? No way.
With all of that out of the way, enjoy the draft and dreams of 2016!
I would prefer to see the Cubs select Appel. He is the safer of the two picks, should reach the Majors quickly, and has very little leverage as a college senior. Gray has the higher ceiling with triple-digit heat, but Appel's floor is likely that of a third starter. He just makes too much sense for the Cubs right now. Regardless, either player immediately becomes the Cubs top pitching prospect and realistically a top five pitcher in the organization as a whole.
Beyond simply developing a preference for Gray or Appel, the MLB draft presents a slew of interesting topics for consideration. Here are a few of them:
1. Draft Bonus Pools
In an effort to curb runaway spending on the draft by wealthier teams, MLB's most recent collective bargaining agreement (CBA) provides new bonus pools with stiff penalties for teams that exceed those pools. The pool only applies to a team's picks in the top ten rounds of the draft unless a team spends greater than $100K on a pick in the 11th or later round, at which point the excess of that player's bonus beyond $100K is applied to the team's pool. The bonuses are calculated by draft slot, although the actual player's bonus need not match the MLB-designed amount.
By way of example, the slot value for the sixth overall selection in the 2012 draft was $3.25M. The Cubs chose Albert Almora with that pick and ended up paying him a $3.9M bonus; however, because the club signed the vast majority of their other picks in the first ten rounds for below slot value, they exceeded their $8.307M pool by just $373.8K. This trend was followed by most teams, selecting college seniors in the latter half of the first ten rounds and giving them bonus of only a few thousand dollars. Because the Cubs overspent their pool by 4.5%, they paid a 75% tax on the overage. Penalties beyond the 5% excess immediately become much more severe. The list of possible penalties:
0% < amount < 5%: 75% tax on overage
5% < amount < 10%: 75% tax on overage AND loss of next year's 1st round pick
10% < amount < 15%: 100% tax on overage AND loss of next year's 1st AND 2nd round picks
15% < amount: 100% tax on overage AND loss of next two 1st round picks
The penalties prefer two violations: that by less than 5% and that by greater than 15%. The most valuable asset in the draft is the picks, the opportunity to acquire players without competing with the other 29 teams. Players, agents, and the teams are all keenly aware of this, although no team has ventured beyond the 5% overage as of yet. The incentive to blow past the 15% mark presents itself very clearly and could apply to the Cubs as early as next year or, more likely, in 2015. I have not seen any sports writers discuss this approach, so allow me to be the first.
Every year before 2012, teams would take later round fliers on excellent players who seemed unlikely to sign with a professional team out of high school due to a solid college commitment. The Yankees, Red Sox, and even Tigers were masters of blowing past slot recommendations for picks, perhaps best exemplified by Tigers RHP Rick Porcello. Porcello fell all the way to #27 overall in 2007 due to his extreme bonus demands and solid commitment to North Carolina. The recommended bonus for the 27th pick was $1.17M. The Tigers blew the bank, guaranteeing Porcello $7M on a Major League deal that included a $3.5M bonus. Notwithstanding their rushing him to the majors and stunting his growth, the Tigers spent a paltry sum to get 150 starts out of Porcello in advance of his 25th birthday. The Cubs rarely took advantage of this approach, although they finally did with North Carolina commitment RHP Dillon Maples in 2011, awarding him a $2.5M bonus as a 14th round pick, the same amount slotted for the 5th overall pick that year. The value here is obvious: a premium talent acquired at the extremely low cost of a 14th round pick and $2.5M. To a team with revenue of $258M that year, signing Maples was a no-brainer. The new rules have attempted to make this tougher.
Hopefully the 2015 Cubs have the look of a perennial contender with premier talents like RF Jorge Soler, SS Javier Baez, CF Albert Almora, and SP Pierce Johnson settling into contributing roles to complement prime stars 1B Anthony Rizzo, SS Starlin Castro, and SP Jeff Samardzija. With a perfect storm of young talent arriving in 2015, the Cubs could be looking at a relatively high draft spot in June 2015 despite the fact that the team would be pushing for a playoff spot with a young core. If that occurs, they can take a riskier approach to the draft. If there is a talent such as Maples - or ideally a handful of like-situated talents - the Cubs could take the approach of loading up on way-over-slot players. Because the penalties stop escalating at 15% excess - that is, the penalty for 15% over slot is the same as 200% over - the Cubs could seek the absolute best talent in every round and determine to sign that player regardless of cost. If it takes $3M or so to sign potential first round picks away from strong college commitments, why not do that 10 times in the same draft? The total cost would be huge: roughly $40M spent on the total draft class and the loss of first round picks in 2016 and 2017. However, if the team is good, those picks are much less valuable as late first round choices and the total reward is absurd with 10 new premium prospects that would normally require 10 first round picks to acquire. The problem with this approach is obvious: you must go all-in as failure to sign any of the picks represents a completely wasted selection. It would require a perfect storm, one that could very well occur for the 2015 Cubs: a strong, young core with the look of a perennial contender, a secure front office, and an owner willing to spend huge sums of money.
2. Signability
Until a team pursues such an aggressive draft, signability will remain a huge concern, especially of the top choice. If a team signs less highly rated college players in rounds 2-10 for well-below slot deals but then fails to use that excess to sign the top choice, they do get that top pick again in the next year's draft but they also lose the chance to select betters players in rounds 2-10 of the current year's draft, a devastating blow.
For the 2013 Cubs, signability mostly means that of Appel. There are a pair of factors that should keep his price more reasonable and a trio of factors that should keep it sky high. First, Appel is a college senior. If he fails to sign again this year, his only real alternative is a year of Independent League ball before re-reentering the draft in 2014. At some point he has to start his career. That plays into the second factor: because he is overwhelmingly likely to be chosen in the top two, he will likely sign for a bonus of north of $7M. He just isn't going to do much better than that as a draftee. The Cubs have some nice leverage here.
However, three factors will push Appel's price up. First and most important, he is represented by Scott Boras. Every agent wants to get the best deal for their player; Boras will get every penny for Appel. Boras does his job better than any other agent, something that doesn't bother me given the limited earning period for professional athletes and the insane wealth of MLB team owners. Second, Appel is the best player in this draft. While Gray may have a higher ceiling - and that is debatable - it isn't much higher and Appel has more consistently plowed through the collegiate and international opposition. Finally, Appel made the bold decision to return to Stanford for his senior year after being a top-ten pick, so he likely wants to show the baseball world that his decision was worth it. A $3M increase in his draft bonus will do that (although I'd argue that the strongest bet on his talent would have been signing for less last year, thus presumably moving him one year closer to MLB free agency and tacking an extra year of MLB salary onto the end of his career...but I digress).
A few factors beyond those addressed already impact signability from the team's perspective, one of which is unique to college seniors like Appel. First, teams receive compensation in the form of a like-situated selection in the next year's draft when they fail to sign a player chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. For example, the Pirates have the 9th choice in this year's draft as compensation for Appel spurning their 2012 offer. Second, teams lose the slot value from their bonus pool when they fail to sign a player selected with that slot. For example, Cubs' entire bonus pool in 2013 is $10,556,500. The #2 overall pick has a bonus of $6,708,400 while their second round pick is $1,361,900. If they fail to sign their second round pick, they cannot assign $1,361,900 to other players; they lose that money completely, reducing their bonus pool to $9,194,600. Drafting a player who the team plans not to sign has no benefit. Finally, MLB moved up the signing deadline for high school and collegiate junior players to July 15. However, that deadline does not apply to college seniors who must sign before one week prior to the 2014 draft. As such, Appel is likely to wait until all of the Cubs other picks have signed and then demand at least the entire bonus pool plus 5%. If the nine picks other than Appel have signed for a total of $3.2M, Appel would make the following offer:
$11,084,325 (total pool + 5%) - $3.2M (amount spent) - $1 (to keep Cubs below 5% overage) = $7,884,324.
Given that the recommended bonus for the top overall pick is $7,790,400, Appel would have an almost impossible time turning down that amount.
One quick final note. Generally football fans want their teams to draft the "best player available" regardless of that player's position. In the baseball draft, given the extreme gap between draft day and the draftees Major League debut, this argument gets pushed to the extreme. I'm often frustrated by the argument in football, but it pushes me over the edge in baseball. It is absurd to always take BPA. For example, if the top player on a team's draft board is a catcher when their selection comes up in every round of the draft, should they select 40 catchers? Of course not. Teams should always determine the relative value of a pick, even in baseball. Teams can almost always choose pitchers and they can almost always select up-the-middle position players. But with Anthony Rizzo signed for the next nine years and Dan Vogelbach a top-five position player prospect, should the Cubs take Colin Moran - a likely long-term first baseman - if they like him 1% more than Mark Appel? No way.
With all of that out of the way, enjoy the draft and dreams of 2016!
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
2013 National League Central Predictions
The N.L. Central figures to be a two horse race in 2013. Cincinnati should be in contention all year after winning the division with 97 wins in 2012, but, given their excellent pitching and pitching depth, St. Louis is a good bet to make repeating difficult for the Reds. With Houston off to the American League and Milwaukee and Pittsburgh both playing decent ball, the Cubs should have a firm grip on the doormat.
1. St. Louis
Projected Wins: 94
Explanation: The Cardinals have the pitching to dominate for long stretches with a perfect mix of experienced hurlers and young talent. Their pitching depth also enables them to swing a big trade if they see fit, something that could very well be the difference between reaching the postseason and just missing. I foresee Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller being very productive behind ace Adam Wainwright. I also foresee the Cardinals top five producing plenty of offense. John Jay should get on base enough in front of Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina for the offense to be at least average. David Freese is a good sixth option. However, the bottom duo of Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma just won't get the job done. Solid second base prospect Kolten Wong should have a chance to supplant Descalso during the season. Elite outfield prospect Oscar Taveras could also help out, although St. Louis may prefer another full season of seasoning for the wildly talented 19-year-old. With Rafael Furcal injured and looking increasingly washed up, the shortstop hole will keep the Cardinals on the lookout for a big acquisition.
Player to Watch: Miller. The big Texan has had the look of a staff ace for quite some time, and even with a tiny dip in his ceiling, he could be an excellent rotation option just behind Wainwright. If Miller puts it together for a full season, he could be pitching Game Two of the Division Series in October.
2. *Cincinnati
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: That's no mistake: I think we'll have a Wild Card play-in game between Cincinnati and Los Angeles for the right to play Washington in the Wild Card round. The Reds are built very similarly to the Cardinals with excellent starting pitching depth, a very strong bullpen, and an exceptionally productive top of the order. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Shin-Soo Choo are the best trio of lefties on any team with Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick complementing them nicely from the right side. The bottom of the Cincinnati order is good but unspectacular as Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart both struggle to get on base while Ryan Hanigan offers almost no power, although Hanigan could be fully supplanted by the superior Devin Mesoraco behind the plate. Chris Heisey provides good outfield depth as well. Nonetheless, the starting rotation features five good options while the bullpen is anchored by the three-headed monster of Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall, and Jonathan Broxton. Cincinnati won't blow a lot of leads in 2013.
Player to Watch: Bronson Arroyo. In a contract season, the 36-year-old starter has a ton at stake. A productive year could mean another two or three year deal to close his career while struggles could lead to a mid-season move to the bullpen.
3. Milwaukee
Projected Wins: 81
Explanation: I really despise the Kyle Lohse signing by the Brewers. Milwaukee's offensive prowess is undeniable. Their top six of Aoki-Weeks-Braun-Ramirez-Lucroy-Gomez is very strong and that sextext will be vastly improved when Corey Hart replaces Alex Gonzalez at first base in June. Jean Segura rounds out the group nicely. Yovani Gallardo continues to be an excellent starter, and there is some hope for the likes of Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta, and Tyler Thornburg. However, it takes a ton of hope to see that pitching staff - even with Lohse included - being enough for the Brewers to overcome the likes of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Washington, San Francisco, or Los Angeles. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, they have to come out ahead of a number of those teams to make the playoffs. Lohse is coming off of a career year at age 33. It is possible that he will enjoy some of the same improvements and luck that carried him to that great season again. However, it is just as likely that he will pitch like a 34-year-old, giving the Brewers a fourth or fifth starting pitcher for $11M and costing them their first-round pick in June's draft while simultaneously giving division rival St. Louis an extra selection. It's hard to see this working out well for the Brewers.
Player to Watch: Carlos Gomez. With a 3-year, $24M extension in hand, Gomez needs to show that 2012 was a year of his talent coming to fruition, not a year of luck. If it is the latter, Milwaukee is in trouble. If it is the former, Gomez could take another big step in 2013.
4. Pittsburgh
Projected Wins: 77
Explanation: Pirates fans hoping to break the .500 barrier have to wait one more season to do so. Thankfully for them, 2014 should be that year with the arrival of top starters Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Before Cole and Taillon make it to Pittsburgh, the team will struggle through starts from Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez behind solid arms A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and James McDonald. The bullpen should be solid, led by big armed closer Jason Grilli. The lineup, on the other hand, consists of superstar Andrew McCutchen, good second baseman Neil Walker, and six average but unspectacular bats. There just isn't enough offensively to carry the team given its decent pitching.
Player to Watch: Pedro Alvarez. The second overall pick in the 2008 draft, Alvarez has showed the power stroke that made scouts fall in love with him. Unfortunately for the Pirates, he has also shown mind-boggling inconsistency at the plate. If he puts it together at 26, he could still be one of the top five third basemen in the game. It's time.
5. Chicago
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: After winning just 61 games in 2012, the new front office regime shored up the team's starting pitch depth issues by signing Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Carlos Villanueva, and Scott Feldman. They also added Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa to shore up a dreadful bullpen. Baker was expected to be out until May, but a spring training setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery should keep him out until at least the All-Star break. Similarly, largely seen as the top trade chip on the market, Matt Garza has been slowed in his return from a July elbow injury by a lat strain, although Garza is on track to return in May. Even with the new found starting depth, the Cubs bullpen looked to be shaky entering the season and early returns have been dreadful. Thankfully 2012 breakouts Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood have continued rolling along in the rotation. Regardless of the pitching success or failure, the team's offense will keep them from having any chance of competing. Future studs Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo should anchor the patchwork lineup with only catcher Welington Castillo and perhaps second baseman Darwin Barney likely to be in Cubs uniforms by the time the team competes again for a postseason berth. Alfonso Soriano turned in a strong 2012 campaign, waiting until May 15th to club his first home run, then smashing 32 on the year. Another good season from Soriano could help the development of the two younger Cubs ahead of him in the batting order.
Player to Watch: Garza. The team's best bet to bring back a big return in a mid-season trade, the 29-year-old righty pitched like an ace in 2011 before the injury bug bit in 2012. If he returns to form for a couple of months in advance of the deadline, he could still net the team a nice haul in a trade.
1. St. Louis
Projected Wins: 94
Explanation: The Cardinals have the pitching to dominate for long stretches with a perfect mix of experienced hurlers and young talent. Their pitching depth also enables them to swing a big trade if they see fit, something that could very well be the difference between reaching the postseason and just missing. I foresee Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, and Shelby Miller being very productive behind ace Adam Wainwright. I also foresee the Cardinals top five producing plenty of offense. John Jay should get on base enough in front of Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, and Yadier Molina for the offense to be at least average. David Freese is a good sixth option. However, the bottom duo of Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma just won't get the job done. Solid second base prospect Kolten Wong should have a chance to supplant Descalso during the season. Elite outfield prospect Oscar Taveras could also help out, although St. Louis may prefer another full season of seasoning for the wildly talented 19-year-old. With Rafael Furcal injured and looking increasingly washed up, the shortstop hole will keep the Cardinals on the lookout for a big acquisition.
Player to Watch: Miller. The big Texan has had the look of a staff ace for quite some time, and even with a tiny dip in his ceiling, he could be an excellent rotation option just behind Wainwright. If Miller puts it together for a full season, he could be pitching Game Two of the Division Series in October.
2. *Cincinnati
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: That's no mistake: I think we'll have a Wild Card play-in game between Cincinnati and Los Angeles for the right to play Washington in the Wild Card round. The Reds are built very similarly to the Cardinals with excellent starting pitching depth, a very strong bullpen, and an exceptionally productive top of the order. Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, and Shin-Soo Choo are the best trio of lefties on any team with Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick complementing them nicely from the right side. The bottom of the Cincinnati order is good but unspectacular as Todd Frazier and Zack Cozart both struggle to get on base while Ryan Hanigan offers almost no power, although Hanigan could be fully supplanted by the superior Devin Mesoraco behind the plate. Chris Heisey provides good outfield depth as well. Nonetheless, the starting rotation features five good options while the bullpen is anchored by the three-headed monster of Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall, and Jonathan Broxton. Cincinnati won't blow a lot of leads in 2013.
Player to Watch: Bronson Arroyo. In a contract season, the 36-year-old starter has a ton at stake. A productive year could mean another two or three year deal to close his career while struggles could lead to a mid-season move to the bullpen.
3. Milwaukee
Projected Wins: 81
Explanation: I really despise the Kyle Lohse signing by the Brewers. Milwaukee's offensive prowess is undeniable. Their top six of Aoki-Weeks-Braun-Ramirez-Lucroy-Gomez is very strong and that sextext will be vastly improved when Corey Hart replaces Alex Gonzalez at first base in June. Jean Segura rounds out the group nicely. Yovani Gallardo continues to be an excellent starter, and there is some hope for the likes of Marco Estrada, Wily Peralta, and Tyler Thornburg. However, it takes a ton of hope to see that pitching staff - even with Lohse included - being enough for the Brewers to overcome the likes of St. Louis, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Washington, San Francisco, or Los Angeles. Unfortunately for Milwaukee, they have to come out ahead of a number of those teams to make the playoffs. Lohse is coming off of a career year at age 33. It is possible that he will enjoy some of the same improvements and luck that carried him to that great season again. However, it is just as likely that he will pitch like a 34-year-old, giving the Brewers a fourth or fifth starting pitcher for $11M and costing them their first-round pick in June's draft while simultaneously giving division rival St. Louis an extra selection. It's hard to see this working out well for the Brewers.
Player to Watch: Carlos Gomez. With a 3-year, $24M extension in hand, Gomez needs to show that 2012 was a year of his talent coming to fruition, not a year of luck. If it is the latter, Milwaukee is in trouble. If it is the former, Gomez could take another big step in 2013.
4. Pittsburgh
Projected Wins: 77
Explanation: Pirates fans hoping to break the .500 barrier have to wait one more season to do so. Thankfully for them, 2014 should be that year with the arrival of top starters Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon. Before Cole and Taillon make it to Pittsburgh, the team will struggle through starts from Francisco Liriano and Jonathan Sanchez behind solid arms A.J. Burnett, Wandy Rodriguez, and James McDonald. The bullpen should be solid, led by big armed closer Jason Grilli. The lineup, on the other hand, consists of superstar Andrew McCutchen, good second baseman Neil Walker, and six average but unspectacular bats. There just isn't enough offensively to carry the team given its decent pitching.
Player to Watch: Pedro Alvarez. The second overall pick in the 2008 draft, Alvarez has showed the power stroke that made scouts fall in love with him. Unfortunately for the Pirates, he has also shown mind-boggling inconsistency at the plate. If he puts it together at 26, he could still be one of the top five third basemen in the game. It's time.
5. Chicago
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: After winning just 61 games in 2012, the new front office regime shored up the team's starting pitch depth issues by signing Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Carlos Villanueva, and Scott Feldman. They also added Japanese closer Kyuji Fujikawa to shore up a dreadful bullpen. Baker was expected to be out until May, but a spring training setback in his recovery from Tommy John surgery should keep him out until at least the All-Star break. Similarly, largely seen as the top trade chip on the market, Matt Garza has been slowed in his return from a July elbow injury by a lat strain, although Garza is on track to return in May. Even with the new found starting depth, the Cubs bullpen looked to be shaky entering the season and early returns have been dreadful. Thankfully 2012 breakouts Jeff Samardzija and Travis Wood have continued rolling along in the rotation. Regardless of the pitching success or failure, the team's offense will keep them from having any chance of competing. Future studs Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo should anchor the patchwork lineup with only catcher Welington Castillo and perhaps second baseman Darwin Barney likely to be in Cubs uniforms by the time the team competes again for a postseason berth. Alfonso Soriano turned in a strong 2012 campaign, waiting until May 15th to club his first home run, then smashing 32 on the year. Another good season from Soriano could help the development of the two younger Cubs ahead of him in the batting order.
Player to Watch: Garza. The team's best bet to bring back a big return in a mid-season trade, the 29-year-old righty pitched like an ace in 2011 before the injury bug bit in 2012. If he returns to form for a couple of months in advance of the deadline, he could still net the team a nice haul in a trade.
2013 American League Central Predictions
The A.L. Central is probably going to be the worst division in baseball in 2013 despite housing the reigning A.L. champion Detroit Tigers. Unsurprisingly, the division race figures to be a snooze.
1. Detroit
Projected Wins: 101
Explanation: The Tigers were the most talented team in the 2012 A.L. Central even though they had to hold off a furious charge from the surprising White Sox to win the division crown. 2013 should be much easier. They feature MLB's best starting pitching with a true ace - reigning MVP Justin Verlander - followed by three well above-average starters in Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Youngsters Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly bring up the rear in more than acceptable fashion. As for the position players, only left fielder Andy Dirks figures to be below average at his position and even Dirks will face some competition from within the organization as Avisail Garcia made some noise last year. The heart of the order is elite and the lineup depth is baseball's best with the return of Victor Martinez, a full season of Omar Infante, and the addition of Torii Hunter. 2013 will not be tense until October.
Player to Watch: I have one player for the other 29 teams. For the Tigers, the "player" to watch is the closer, whoever that is. After prospect Bruce Rondon was clearly overmatched in spring training, the team decided to go by committee in the closer's role. While that was the right decision given the team's personnel, uncertainty in the bullpen has been the Achilles heel for a number of teams. If Detroit is to avoid the same fate, one of Al Albuquerque, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, or Octavio Dotel will need to grab the reins.
2. Cleveland
Projected Wins: 83
Explanation: When the Indians traded away Shin-Soo Choo, conventional wisdom was that the team was giving up on the 2013 season. However, they quickly snapped up Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to supplement a lineup that already included good regulars in Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana. The lineup should be an above-average group, especially considering the enormous defensive upgrade of Bourn replacing Choo in the outfield. The pitching staff features a bunch of good names, but as a group, they are likely to be slightly below-average. Ubaldo Jimenez has been a tremendous disappointment since the Indians acquired him from Colorado, and Justin Masterson is miscast as an ace. Super prospect Trevor Bauer could be that missing ace if he reaches Cleveland this year, but he likely needs some more seasoning and needs to get past the personality issues that got him shipped out of Arizona just a year and a half after being drafted third overall.
Player to Watch: Scott Kazmir. The former prized Mets prospect and Rays ace fell off the baseball map when he completely lost his ability to throw strikes. Kazmir won the fifth starting job in spring training, and a productive season from him could keep Cleveland in contention. Unfortunately, it is likelier that he will not be able to keep his job.
3. Chicago
Projected Wins: 79
Explanation: The White Sox could very well contend in 2013. They have enough offensive depth to win lots of games with a roster full of players who could be above-average or better. Unfortunately, the roster is also full of risk. Soul-of-the-team Paul Konerko is 37. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were both horrendous in 2011. Jeff Keppinger and Alejandro de Aza both enjoyed career years in 2012. Tyler Flowers is unproven and Gordon Beckham's career could fall apart at a moment's notice. Chris Sale looks like an ace, but his delivery screams of elbow trouble. Jake Peavy has a well chronicled history of back issues that nearly forced his retirement. Gavin Floyd and John Danks have both been disappointments since emerging as possible top-of-the-rotation starters. While the bullpen looks very good, the farm system lacks the prospects needed to pull off a big move. Without that trading ability, the odds of a flop or injury that cripples the team is just too great.
Player to Watch: de Aza. The center fielder played wonderfully in limited action in 2011, then posted a strong full season in 2012. However, he showed very little in his career before 2011, so his age-29 season in 2013 is essential maintaining a solid career trajectory.
4. Kansas City
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: I have been very critical of the James Shields trade from Kansas City's perspective. Shields is a very good starting pitcher, far and away the best Kansas City has had since Zack Greinke departed via trade. However, at the cost of middle-of-the-order, MLB-ready bat Wil Myers, two years of Shields just doesn't make sense given that the rest of the Royals roster isn't close enough to competing for the playoffs. To be fair, the lineup is very solid. Given the potential for breakout campaigns from Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain, the offense could be above-average even with Chris Getz and Jeff Francouer getting too many plate appearances. Unfortunately for Royals fans, Shields is the only average starter in the group. The horribly overpaid Jeremy Guthrie is a subpar second option and Ervin Santana is at a career crossroads, hardly an ideal option as a third banana for a playoff team. There just isn't enough pitching here to justify the high cost of the Shields trade.
Player to Watch: Cain. The 27-year-old center fielder flashed some special skills as a rookie in 2010, skills that made him a key part of the Greinke trade. He finally has his shot at a full-time major league job this year and has the skills to be an impact contributor. The team cannot compete without a big year from him.
5. Minnesota
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: The heart of the Twins lineup could resemble that of many playoff teams with Joe Mauer followed by Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau. The rest of the lineup is uninspiring, although Ryan Doumit could blast his fair share of home runs. Unfortunately for the Twins, pitching is essential and the team has no even average starters. It is possible that Mike Pelfrey or Vance Worley could rediscover some of their magic from a few years ago, but outside of that pair, there are not even arms for dreaming.
Player to Watch: Aaron Hicks. The Twins aggressively gave the 23-year-old the everyday center field job to start the season and promptly watched him start the season an incredible 2-for-43 with 20 strikeouts. The 20 strikeouts tied the Cubs' Brett Jackson's major league record, just ahead of a quartet of very good ballplayers: Matt Williams, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, and Giancarlo Stanton. It is far too early to throw in the towel for Hicks, but some signs of life would be welcome for a team expected to be mired in years of losing.
1. Detroit
Projected Wins: 101
Explanation: The Tigers were the most talented team in the 2012 A.L. Central even though they had to hold off a furious charge from the surprising White Sox to win the division crown. 2013 should be much easier. They feature MLB's best starting pitching with a true ace - reigning MVP Justin Verlander - followed by three well above-average starters in Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, and Anibal Sanchez. Youngsters Rick Porcello and Drew Smyly bring up the rear in more than acceptable fashion. As for the position players, only left fielder Andy Dirks figures to be below average at his position and even Dirks will face some competition from within the organization as Avisail Garcia made some noise last year. The heart of the order is elite and the lineup depth is baseball's best with the return of Victor Martinez, a full season of Omar Infante, and the addition of Torii Hunter. 2013 will not be tense until October.
Player to Watch: I have one player for the other 29 teams. For the Tigers, the "player" to watch is the closer, whoever that is. After prospect Bruce Rondon was clearly overmatched in spring training, the team decided to go by committee in the closer's role. While that was the right decision given the team's personnel, uncertainty in the bullpen has been the Achilles heel for a number of teams. If Detroit is to avoid the same fate, one of Al Albuquerque, Joaquin Benoit, Phil Coke, or Octavio Dotel will need to grab the reins.
2. Cleveland
Projected Wins: 83
Explanation: When the Indians traded away Shin-Soo Choo, conventional wisdom was that the team was giving up on the 2013 season. However, they quickly snapped up Nick Swisher and Michael Bourn to supplement a lineup that already included good regulars in Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Carlos Santana. The lineup should be an above-average group, especially considering the enormous defensive upgrade of Bourn replacing Choo in the outfield. The pitching staff features a bunch of good names, but as a group, they are likely to be slightly below-average. Ubaldo Jimenez has been a tremendous disappointment since the Indians acquired him from Colorado, and Justin Masterson is miscast as an ace. Super prospect Trevor Bauer could be that missing ace if he reaches Cleveland this year, but he likely needs some more seasoning and needs to get past the personality issues that got him shipped out of Arizona just a year and a half after being drafted third overall.
Player to Watch: Scott Kazmir. The former prized Mets prospect and Rays ace fell off the baseball map when he completely lost his ability to throw strikes. Kazmir won the fifth starting job in spring training, and a productive season from him could keep Cleveland in contention. Unfortunately, it is likelier that he will not be able to keep his job.
3. Chicago
Projected Wins: 79
Explanation: The White Sox could very well contend in 2013. They have enough offensive depth to win lots of games with a roster full of players who could be above-average or better. Unfortunately, the roster is also full of risk. Soul-of-the-team Paul Konerko is 37. Adam Dunn and Alex Rios were both horrendous in 2011. Jeff Keppinger and Alejandro de Aza both enjoyed career years in 2012. Tyler Flowers is unproven and Gordon Beckham's career could fall apart at a moment's notice. Chris Sale looks like an ace, but his delivery screams of elbow trouble. Jake Peavy has a well chronicled history of back issues that nearly forced his retirement. Gavin Floyd and John Danks have both been disappointments since emerging as possible top-of-the-rotation starters. While the bullpen looks very good, the farm system lacks the prospects needed to pull off a big move. Without that trading ability, the odds of a flop or injury that cripples the team is just too great.
Player to Watch: de Aza. The center fielder played wonderfully in limited action in 2011, then posted a strong full season in 2012. However, he showed very little in his career before 2011, so his age-29 season in 2013 is essential maintaining a solid career trajectory.
4. Kansas City
Projected Wins: 71
Explanation: I have been very critical of the James Shields trade from Kansas City's perspective. Shields is a very good starting pitcher, far and away the best Kansas City has had since Zack Greinke departed via trade. However, at the cost of middle-of-the-order, MLB-ready bat Wil Myers, two years of Shields just doesn't make sense given that the rest of the Royals roster isn't close enough to competing for the playoffs. To be fair, the lineup is very solid. Given the potential for breakout campaigns from Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain, the offense could be above-average even with Chris Getz and Jeff Francouer getting too many plate appearances. Unfortunately for Royals fans, Shields is the only average starter in the group. The horribly overpaid Jeremy Guthrie is a subpar second option and Ervin Santana is at a career crossroads, hardly an ideal option as a third banana for a playoff team. There just isn't enough pitching here to justify the high cost of the Shields trade.
Player to Watch: Cain. The 27-year-old center fielder flashed some special skills as a rookie in 2010, skills that made him a key part of the Greinke trade. He finally has his shot at a full-time major league job this year and has the skills to be an impact contributor. The team cannot compete without a big year from him.
5. Minnesota
Projected Wins: 59
Explanation: The heart of the Twins lineup could resemble that of many playoff teams with Joe Mauer followed by Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau. The rest of the lineup is uninspiring, although Ryan Doumit could blast his fair share of home runs. Unfortunately for the Twins, pitching is essential and the team has no even average starters. It is possible that Mike Pelfrey or Vance Worley could rediscover some of their magic from a few years ago, but outside of that pair, there are not even arms for dreaming.
Player to Watch: Aaron Hicks. The Twins aggressively gave the 23-year-old the everyday center field job to start the season and promptly watched him start the season an incredible 2-for-43 with 20 strikeouts. The 20 strikeouts tied the Cubs' Brett Jackson's major league record, just ahead of a quartet of very good ballplayers: Matt Williams, Russell Branyan, Ray Durham, and Giancarlo Stanton. It is far too early to throw in the towel for Hicks, but some signs of life would be welcome for a team expected to be mired in years of losing.
Monday, April 22, 2013
2013 National League East Predictions
The National League East has been a tumultuous place for teams not based in Atlanta. The Mets began the 2000s with a World Series appearance but otherwise endured a lackluster decade and currently the team is in the midst of a changing of the guard. The Nationals were baseball's doormat for years but drafted well for a couple of years and announced their presence as serious players in 2012. The Phillies won a World Series and played for another at the end of the last decade, but the team seems likely to have a wildly different roster when they return to that level. Finally, the Marlins at the poster child for wild fluctuations, sandwiching rousing success with horrifying failure. Despite this reality, the division's teams seem easier to peg in 2013 than ever before.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Atlanta
Projected Wins: 95
Explanation: While I do feel a bit conflicted for picking such a big season out of the Braves given their fiery hot start to the year, I have not picked another team to win the division since the 1990s, so there is authenticity here. Entering the season, Atlanta had six excellent regulars including superstars Justin Upton and Jason Heyward, and the team had holes only at third base and catcher. Although Brian McCann's recovery from offseason shoulder surgery has gone poorly, the unknown Evan Gattis has shown that his wildly successful 2012 across three minor league levels was no fluke. If Gattis can be even an average regular all year, Atlanta could eclipse 100 wins even when Paul Maholm returns to Earth thanks to their excellent pitching depth with extremely high ceilings.
Player to Watch: For the remainder of the season, it's Gattis by a mile. But without the benefit of the last three weeks, it has to be Justin Upton. The younger of the brothers in the Atlanta outfield, Justin cost the Braves Martin Prado and ace prospect Randall Delgado. If Justin plays close to his ability, he is an MVP candidate. He has played like a superstar before. He has also played like an average regular. He turns 26 in August, so it is time for him to solidify his star status.
2. *Washington
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: The Nationals pitching staff is the best in baseball. Their excellent rotation features a pair of Cy Young contenders in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez followed by two above-average arms in Jordan Zimmerman and Dan Haren. Ross Detwiler figures to own the fifth spot as an average starter. Once those starters give the bullpen a lead, it is lights out with Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, and Tyler Clippard slamming the door shut. The offense is more about depth with average regulars surrounding stars Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. However, very few other teams actually put eight average or better starters on the field, so the Washington offense should hum again in 2013.
Player to Watch: The Nationals have plenty of interesting names but I think that the most interesting player on the roster is Jayson Werth. The Washington payroll spiked from $68M in 2011 to $118M this year. Including this season, Werth has five years and $99M left on his deal. While the team has locked up Ryan Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Denard Span, Adam LaRoche, and Soriano, the likes of Strasburg, Ian Desmond, Detwiler, Storen, and Clippard are all into their arbitration years as key cogs in the franchise's wheels. If Werth continues to be just an average regular, he could be on his way out the door to accommodate the rising costs of the superior talent.
3. Philadelphia
Projected Wins: 84
Explanation: Philly has a good team with some serious star talent. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay form the top trio in the game in spite of Halladay's early season struggles where he has been devastated by the long ball. Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan round out the rotation complemented by an excellent bullpen with big arms Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo. However, the offense is harder to come by in the Phillies lineup. Ryan Howard's extension has been a disappointment since before it kicked in, Chase Utley has dealt with knee problems, and Michael Young - seemingly acquired to solidify the group - is 36 with rapidly declining power and floundering on-base ability. The Philadelphia system lacks impact talent to be called up or used in trades, making the possibility of a mid-season fire sale all the more likely.
Player to Watch: Domonic Brown. The former banner prospect is yet to put it together in the majors. However, few doubt that the tools are still there. At 25, he continues to confound projection systems that wonder where the star offensive player is. He may be too old to have a magical career, but he can still muster a great one if the puzzle comes together. He should get his full-time shot in 2013.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 74
Explanation: The Mets made a spectacular trade this offseason, turning 38-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey into big pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard and across-the-board above-average catcher Travis d'Arnaud. Unfortunately for the big club in 2013, the results will be worse as a result. By the end of the season, the team could feature an exciting, deep rotation headlined by young studs Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey trailed by the solid Jon Niese and Dillon Gee with veteran Shaun Marcum filling out the group. Regardless, the team will surround the excellent David Wright with the solid duo of Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy with little else. There just isn't enough on offense yet for the team to compete, although there could be enough pitching for playoff dreams in 2014. Expect the Mets to be players for big offensive free agents like Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson this offseason.
Player to Watch: Davis. Despite crushing 32 home runs in 2012, Davis had just a .308 on-base percentage thanks to a .246 BABIP and nearly 25% strikeout rate. If he shows more on-base ability while maintaining good power, he is a cleanup hitter. If the on-base ability is gone, he likely hits sixth or seventh on a good team.
5. Miami
Projected Wins: 53
Explanation: Giancarlo Stanton is an ultra-mega-star. Jose Fernandez should be a top-of-the-rotation starter and pitch some in Miami this year. I'm punting the rest of this write-up just like the Marlins are punting the 2013 season.
Player to Watch: Stanton. Nobody else on this team is interesting while Stanton could still challenge for the MVP despite a likely triple digit loss total. That is a rarity to say the least.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Atlanta
Projected Wins: 95
Explanation: While I do feel a bit conflicted for picking such a big season out of the Braves given their fiery hot start to the year, I have not picked another team to win the division since the 1990s, so there is authenticity here. Entering the season, Atlanta had six excellent regulars including superstars Justin Upton and Jason Heyward, and the team had holes only at third base and catcher. Although Brian McCann's recovery from offseason shoulder surgery has gone poorly, the unknown Evan Gattis has shown that his wildly successful 2012 across three minor league levels was no fluke. If Gattis can be even an average regular all year, Atlanta could eclipse 100 wins even when Paul Maholm returns to Earth thanks to their excellent pitching depth with extremely high ceilings.
Player to Watch: For the remainder of the season, it's Gattis by a mile. But without the benefit of the last three weeks, it has to be Justin Upton. The younger of the brothers in the Atlanta outfield, Justin cost the Braves Martin Prado and ace prospect Randall Delgado. If Justin plays close to his ability, he is an MVP candidate. He has played like a superstar before. He has also played like an average regular. He turns 26 in August, so it is time for him to solidify his star status.
2. *Washington
Projected Wins: 91
Explanation: The Nationals pitching staff is the best in baseball. Their excellent rotation features a pair of Cy Young contenders in Stephen Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez followed by two above-average arms in Jordan Zimmerman and Dan Haren. Ross Detwiler figures to own the fifth spot as an average starter. Once those starters give the bullpen a lead, it is lights out with Rafael Soriano, Drew Storen, and Tyler Clippard slamming the door shut. The offense is more about depth with average regulars surrounding stars Bryce Harper and Ryan Zimmerman. However, very few other teams actually put eight average or better starters on the field, so the Washington offense should hum again in 2013.
Player to Watch: The Nationals have plenty of interesting names but I think that the most interesting player on the roster is Jayson Werth. The Washington payroll spiked from $68M in 2011 to $118M this year. Including this season, Werth has five years and $99M left on his deal. While the team has locked up Ryan Zimmerman, Gonzalez, Denard Span, Adam LaRoche, and Soriano, the likes of Strasburg, Ian Desmond, Detwiler, Storen, and Clippard are all into their arbitration years as key cogs in the franchise's wheels. If Werth continues to be just an average regular, he could be on his way out the door to accommodate the rising costs of the superior talent.
3. Philadelphia
Projected Wins: 84
Explanation: Philly has a good team with some serious star talent. Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Roy Halladay form the top trio in the game in spite of Halladay's early season struggles where he has been devastated by the long ball. Kyle Kendrick and John Lannan round out the rotation complemented by an excellent bullpen with big arms Jonathan Papelbon, Mike Adams, and Antonio Bastardo. However, the offense is harder to come by in the Phillies lineup. Ryan Howard's extension has been a disappointment since before it kicked in, Chase Utley has dealt with knee problems, and Michael Young - seemingly acquired to solidify the group - is 36 with rapidly declining power and floundering on-base ability. The Philadelphia system lacks impact talent to be called up or used in trades, making the possibility of a mid-season fire sale all the more likely.
Player to Watch: Domonic Brown. The former banner prospect is yet to put it together in the majors. However, few doubt that the tools are still there. At 25, he continues to confound projection systems that wonder where the star offensive player is. He may be too old to have a magical career, but he can still muster a great one if the puzzle comes together. He should get his full-time shot in 2013.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 74
Explanation: The Mets made a spectacular trade this offseason, turning 38-year-old knuckleballer R.A. Dickey into big pitching prospect Noah Syndergaard and across-the-board above-average catcher Travis d'Arnaud. Unfortunately for the big club in 2013, the results will be worse as a result. By the end of the season, the team could feature an exciting, deep rotation headlined by young studs Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey trailed by the solid Jon Niese and Dillon Gee with veteran Shaun Marcum filling out the group. Regardless, the team will surround the excellent David Wright with the solid duo of Ike Davis and Daniel Murphy with little else. There just isn't enough on offense yet for the team to compete, although there could be enough pitching for playoff dreams in 2014. Expect the Mets to be players for big offensive free agents like Jacoby Ellsbury and Curtis Granderson this offseason.
Player to Watch: Davis. Despite crushing 32 home runs in 2012, Davis had just a .308 on-base percentage thanks to a .246 BABIP and nearly 25% strikeout rate. If he shows more on-base ability while maintaining good power, he is a cleanup hitter. If the on-base ability is gone, he likely hits sixth or seventh on a good team.
5. Miami
Projected Wins: 53
Explanation: Giancarlo Stanton is an ultra-mega-star. Jose Fernandez should be a top-of-the-rotation starter and pitch some in Miami this year. I'm punting the rest of this write-up just like the Marlins are punting the 2013 season.
Player to Watch: Stanton. Nobody else on this team is interesting while Stanton could still challenge for the MVP despite a likely triple digit loss total. That is a rarity to say the least.
2013 American League East Predictions
The 2012 AL East was turned on its head with the doormat Baltimore Orioles claiming a Wild Card spot with 93 wins, just behind the division champion Yankees. 2013 figures to be just as unpredictable. With that in mind, here's my take on the tight division.
2. *Toronto
Projected Wins: 87
Explanation: The top of the Toronto lineup looks like that of a World Series contender with Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. The bottom five, on the other hand, should provide only defense unless Colby Rasmus can finally progress toward his considerable ceiling. More importantly for the Jays, their offseason facelift gives them a mostly-new starting rotation of big names. Reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey should be good, although some regression is expected after a huge spike in strikeouts in 2012. Brandon Morrow should be strong while J.A. Happ is a good fifth option. Toronto's season likely hangs on the free agent season of Josh Johnson and the failing left arm of Mark Buehrle. Buehrle showed signs of the end last season in Miami and represents a huge risk for the Jays. Johnson should have a big year, but health was a big issue in 2011, so he needs to make 30+ starts. If Toronto does manage to reach the postseason, their bullpen will propel them there with the excellent tandem of Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos nailing down wins.
Player to Watch: Johnson. A big season could leave him as the top arm to reach the free agent market. An injury-riddled year likely renders him a Scott Baker-type on the market, fishing for a one-year deal to reestablish his value.
3. Boston
* - Denotes wild card
1. Tampa Bay
Projected Wins: 89
Explanation: The Tampa Bay offense is best described as this: Longoria, Zobrist, a bit of Jennings, and pray for rain. However, the Rays pitching staff is so good, the team will ride the arms into October. Ace David Price dominated the American League en route to the 2012 Cy Young award. He has been remarkably consistent and he is a very safe bet to produce another excellent year in what figures to be his final full campaign in Tampa. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are as good of a 2-3 combination as exists in the game. The Rays fill in their final two spots with Alex Cobb, Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona), Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi. That quartet is as good as many teams second through fifth starters. The Rays will throw a good starting pitcher in every game in 2013, a feature that should be just enough to overcome their anemic offense. Then again, power prospect Wil Myers could excel as a rookie and push the win total into the 90s.
Player to Watch: Myers. Tampa has never been in a position to take on big contracts, so any impact additions tend to come from within the organization. Acquired in the James Shields blockbuster, Myers could push Zobrist to the second spot in the lineup, occupying the fourth spot behind Longoria and giving the top of the Tampa lineup that juggernaut look that it currently lacks.
Projected Wins: 89
Explanation: The Tampa Bay offense is best described as this: Longoria, Zobrist, a bit of Jennings, and pray for rain. However, the Rays pitching staff is so good, the team will ride the arms into October. Ace David Price dominated the American League en route to the 2012 Cy Young award. He has been remarkably consistent and he is a very safe bet to produce another excellent year in what figures to be his final full campaign in Tampa. Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore are as good of a 2-3 combination as exists in the game. The Rays fill in their final two spots with Alex Cobb, Roberto Hernandez (formerly Fausto Carmona), Chris Archer, and Jake Odorizzi. That quartet is as good as many teams second through fifth starters. The Rays will throw a good starting pitcher in every game in 2013, a feature that should be just enough to overcome their anemic offense. Then again, power prospect Wil Myers could excel as a rookie and push the win total into the 90s.
Player to Watch: Myers. Tampa has never been in a position to take on big contracts, so any impact additions tend to come from within the organization. Acquired in the James Shields blockbuster, Myers could push Zobrist to the second spot in the lineup, occupying the fourth spot behind Longoria and giving the top of the Tampa lineup that juggernaut look that it currently lacks.
2. *Toronto
Projected Wins: 87
Explanation: The top of the Toronto lineup looks like that of a World Series contender with Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion. The bottom five, on the other hand, should provide only defense unless Colby Rasmus can finally progress toward his considerable ceiling. More importantly for the Jays, their offseason facelift gives them a mostly-new starting rotation of big names. Reigning NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey should be good, although some regression is expected after a huge spike in strikeouts in 2012. Brandon Morrow should be strong while J.A. Happ is a good fifth option. Toronto's season likely hangs on the free agent season of Josh Johnson and the failing left arm of Mark Buehrle. Buehrle showed signs of the end last season in Miami and represents a huge risk for the Jays. Johnson should have a big year, but health was a big issue in 2011, so he needs to make 30+ starts. If Toronto does manage to reach the postseason, their bullpen will propel them there with the excellent tandem of Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos nailing down wins.
Player to Watch: Johnson. A big season could leave him as the top arm to reach the free agent market. An injury-riddled year likely renders him a Scott Baker-type on the market, fishing for a one-year deal to reestablish his value.
3. Boston
Projected Wins: 83
Explanation: The Red Sox are at something of a crossroads as an organization. After a surprising 69-93 2012 campaign, the front office added veteran starter Ryan Dempster, the big bat of Mike Napoli, and Shane Victrino's all-around game. However, star center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury will hit free agency after the year, and the team's two best pitching prospects, Matt Barnes and Allen Webster, should reach Boston this season. With mainstays Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz continuing to anchor the lineup, the Sox should have a good year but not a special one.
Player to Watch: Ellsbury. After injuries in 2010 and 2012, the dynamic center fielder figures to get himself a nine figure deal in the offseason if he plays a full year with good results. Should he suffer through another injury-marred year, he will have to choose between a one-year deal and a multi-year deal with a much lower dollar figure. There's a ton at stake for Ellsbury, a player this writer hopes to see on the north side of Chicago next year.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 80
Explanation: Despite the name on the front of the uniform, this Yankees team screams average with a couple of elite players (CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera) surrounded by a heap of scrubs (Lyle Overbay, Chris Stewart, Eduardo Nunez, Vernon Wells). The latter group should be replaced at some point during the season by established former stars Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter. However, the ceiling for those stars is much lower than it was when the team signed them to gaudy contracts. The Yankees were a fringe playoff team with full seasons of the stars; without them, the postseason is out of reach.
Player to Watch: Granderson. The 32-year-old center fielder followed an electric 2011 season by bashing 43 home runs in 2012. However, Granderson managed only a .319 on-base percentage and struck out in a career-high 28.5% of his plate appearances while swiping just 10 bases. A return to his career-average .341 OBP could mean a huge payday for the Chicago native.
5. Baltimore
Projected Wins: 76
Explanation: Buck Showalter should have Manager of the Decade wrapped up solely based on his 2012 performance. The Baltimore core of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Weiters is exciting and strong. Further, the group is complemented by mega-prospects Manny Machado and ace Dylan Bundy with big starter Kevin Gausman not far behind. However, the depth offensively is average at best and the starting rotation lacks a single truly exciting arm. If Bundy and Gausman reach the majors quickly and pitch to their ability, the team could contend for a playoff spot again. However, that's too tall of an order to ask. The 2012 Orioles outscored their opponents by just seven runs, yet somehow exceeded their Pythagorean win-loss record by an astounding 11 wins. Lightning tends not to strike the same place twice.
Player to Watch: Bundy. He's the most exciting pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. That says enough. Hopefully his spring training elbow flare up is a minor setback and not a sign of things to come.
Player to Watch: Ellsbury. After injuries in 2010 and 2012, the dynamic center fielder figures to get himself a nine figure deal in the offseason if he plays a full year with good results. Should he suffer through another injury-marred year, he will have to choose between a one-year deal and a multi-year deal with a much lower dollar figure. There's a ton at stake for Ellsbury, a player this writer hopes to see on the north side of Chicago next year.
4. New York
Projected Wins: 80
Explanation: Despite the name on the front of the uniform, this Yankees team screams average with a couple of elite players (CC Sabathia, Robinson Cano, Mariano Rivera) surrounded by a heap of scrubs (Lyle Overbay, Chris Stewart, Eduardo Nunez, Vernon Wells). The latter group should be replaced at some point during the season by established former stars Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson, and Derek Jeter. However, the ceiling for those stars is much lower than it was when the team signed them to gaudy contracts. The Yankees were a fringe playoff team with full seasons of the stars; without them, the postseason is out of reach.
Player to Watch: Granderson. The 32-year-old center fielder followed an electric 2011 season by bashing 43 home runs in 2012. However, Granderson managed only a .319 on-base percentage and struck out in a career-high 28.5% of his plate appearances while swiping just 10 bases. A return to his career-average .341 OBP could mean a huge payday for the Chicago native.
5. Baltimore
Projected Wins: 76
Explanation: Buck Showalter should have Manager of the Decade wrapped up solely based on his 2012 performance. The Baltimore core of Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, and Matt Weiters is exciting and strong. Further, the group is complemented by mega-prospects Manny Machado and ace Dylan Bundy with big starter Kevin Gausman not far behind. However, the depth offensively is average at best and the starting rotation lacks a single truly exciting arm. If Bundy and Gausman reach the majors quickly and pitch to their ability, the team could contend for a playoff spot again. However, that's too tall of an order to ask. The 2012 Orioles outscored their opponents by just seven runs, yet somehow exceeded their Pythagorean win-loss record by an astounding 11 wins. Lightning tends not to strike the same place twice.
Player to Watch: Bundy. He's the most exciting pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. That says enough. Hopefully his spring training elbow flare up is a minor setback and not a sign of things to come.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
2013 American League West Predictions
The American League West got bigger for 2013, adding the horrendous Astros to the fold. Although the Astros will bring down the overall quality of play in the division, a trio of contenders keep things plenty interesting.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Texas
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: Even with Josh Hamilton in southern California, the Rangers are going to score plenty of runs. It seems to be only a matter of time until elite prospect Jurickson Profar shows up, bumping Ian Kinsler to first base and replacing Mitch Moreland in the lineup. With Profar likely beginning his career at second base, Texas will have the best infield defense in baseball, anchored by the recently extended Elvis Andrus and perennial Gold Glove third baseman Adrian Beltre. The bullpen is deep and it should preserve plenty of wins for a deep rotation led by Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish. This is a team that does everything well without too many huge names.
Player to Watch: Derek Holland. After signing a sizable extension, Holland struggled to repeat his 2011 success in 2012. Holland lacks any elite abilities, but if he can avoid allowing too many home runs, he should be a nice complement to Darvish and Alexi Ogando.
2. *Anaheim (they don't pay me to pretend they're in LA)
Projected Wins: 88
Explanation: The Angels rotation is shaky. After ace Jered Weaver - out until late May with a broken non-throwing elbow - the quartet of C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton, Jason Vargas, and Tommy Hanson screams of average pitching. Fortunately for the Halos, teams can survive the lengthy campaign on the strength of excellent pitching/defense or excellent offense, not requiring both. The Angels offense is second to none with three MVP-level talents in the top four spots and superb depth.
Player to Watch: Wilson. After a pair of elite campaigns in Texas, Wilson headed west to join the rival Angels and struggled through an average year in 2012. At 32, a return to the elite is just as likely as a career drop off. For the team to play into October, Wilson needs to be that 1B option behind Weaver.
3. Oakland
Projected Wins: 86
Explanation: The Athletics will have a good starting pitcher on the bump every night this year, a benefit that cannot be underestimated for a contender. Unfortunately, none of those pitchers are more than good, nor do they have ceilings beyond that level with the exception of young Jarrod Parker. The lineup is led by cornerstone talent Yoenis Cespedes. Sadly, Cespedes stands alone as an impact offensive talent, and the bottom of the Oakland lineup is truly awful. In another division, they might be a playoff team.
Player to Watch: Josh Reddick. The 26-year-old burst onto the scene in 2012, blasting 32 home runs and contributing superb right field defense. However, he managed only a .305 on-base percentage, so a rounding out of his offensive game is necessary for Reddick to stick as an everyday player over the long haul.
4. Seattle
Projected Wins: 73
Explanation: The Mariners are improving steadily, but a deeper starting rotation or lineup stands between them and contention. After Felix Hernandez, Seattle has depth in the rotation but no impact arms. Supreme prospects Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen should both appear in Seattle at some point during the 2013 season, but neither is expected to have a serious impact this year. The offense is improved with the addition of former Nationals masher Michael Morse, and it features solid depth via youthful talent in Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, and Kyle Seager. With Walker, Hultzen, and top catching prospect Mike Zunino on the scene, 2014 could be the year that the Mariners return to contention if the team can add a big, middle-of-the-order bat. Given the failure of first baseman Justin Smoak, a 1B/OF like Corey Hart could be a great fit.
Player to Watch: Even though 2013 is really about the development of the club's high-level minor league talent, Montero faces an early career crossroads. With questions about his ability to catch every day and his bat disappointing some thus far, the big, 23-year-old righty needs to rediscover his offensive profile.
5. Houston
Projected Wins: 58
Explanation: The Astros are incredibly bad. Jose Altuve is a good speed/batting average second baseman. Altuve will likely be Houston's only above-average player in 2013, and he might just be their only average player too. None of the very poor starting pitchers figure to be around in two years, and only stopgap power hitters Carlos Pena and Chris Carter could total average offensive production.
Player to Watch: Jason Castro. The former top pick showed some on-base ability in 2012 and a bit of pop, although he struggled behind the plate. He will be 26 in two months, so 2013 is a big year for determining whether he can be a decent regular or will be a fringe starter at best.
* - Denotes wild card
1. Texas
Projected Wins: 90
Explanation: Even with Josh Hamilton in southern California, the Rangers are going to score plenty of runs. It seems to be only a matter of time until elite prospect Jurickson Profar shows up, bumping Ian Kinsler to first base and replacing Mitch Moreland in the lineup. With Profar likely beginning his career at second base, Texas will have the best infield defense in baseball, anchored by the recently extended Elvis Andrus and perennial Gold Glove third baseman Adrian Beltre. The bullpen is deep and it should preserve plenty of wins for a deep rotation led by Cy Young candidate Yu Darvish. This is a team that does everything well without too many huge names.
Player to Watch: Derek Holland. After signing a sizable extension, Holland struggled to repeat his 2011 success in 2012. Holland lacks any elite abilities, but if he can avoid allowing too many home runs, he should be a nice complement to Darvish and Alexi Ogando.
2. *Anaheim (they don't pay me to pretend they're in LA)
Projected Wins: 88
Explanation: The Angels rotation is shaky. After ace Jered Weaver - out until late May with a broken non-throwing elbow - the quartet of C.J. Wilson, Joe Blanton, Jason Vargas, and Tommy Hanson screams of average pitching. Fortunately for the Halos, teams can survive the lengthy campaign on the strength of excellent pitching/defense or excellent offense, not requiring both. The Angels offense is second to none with three MVP-level talents in the top four spots and superb depth.
Player to Watch: Wilson. After a pair of elite campaigns in Texas, Wilson headed west to join the rival Angels and struggled through an average year in 2012. At 32, a return to the elite is just as likely as a career drop off. For the team to play into October, Wilson needs to be that 1B option behind Weaver.
3. Oakland
Projected Wins: 86
Explanation: The Athletics will have a good starting pitcher on the bump every night this year, a benefit that cannot be underestimated for a contender. Unfortunately, none of those pitchers are more than good, nor do they have ceilings beyond that level with the exception of young Jarrod Parker. The lineup is led by cornerstone talent Yoenis Cespedes. Sadly, Cespedes stands alone as an impact offensive talent, and the bottom of the Oakland lineup is truly awful. In another division, they might be a playoff team.
Player to Watch: Josh Reddick. The 26-year-old burst onto the scene in 2012, blasting 32 home runs and contributing superb right field defense. However, he managed only a .305 on-base percentage, so a rounding out of his offensive game is necessary for Reddick to stick as an everyday player over the long haul.
4. Seattle
Projected Wins: 73
Explanation: The Mariners are improving steadily, but a deeper starting rotation or lineup stands between them and contention. After Felix Hernandez, Seattle has depth in the rotation but no impact arms. Supreme prospects Taijuan Walker and Danny Hultzen should both appear in Seattle at some point during the 2013 season, but neither is expected to have a serious impact this year. The offense is improved with the addition of former Nationals masher Michael Morse, and it features solid depth via youthful talent in Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero, and Kyle Seager. With Walker, Hultzen, and top catching prospect Mike Zunino on the scene, 2014 could be the year that the Mariners return to contention if the team can add a big, middle-of-the-order bat. Given the failure of first baseman Justin Smoak, a 1B/OF like Corey Hart could be a great fit.
Player to Watch: Even though 2013 is really about the development of the club's high-level minor league talent, Montero faces an early career crossroads. With questions about his ability to catch every day and his bat disappointing some thus far, the big, 23-year-old righty needs to rediscover his offensive profile.
5. Houston
Projected Wins: 58
Explanation: The Astros are incredibly bad. Jose Altuve is a good speed/batting average second baseman. Altuve will likely be Houston's only above-average player in 2013, and he might just be their only average player too. None of the very poor starting pitchers figure to be around in two years, and only stopgap power hitters Carlos Pena and Chris Carter could total average offensive production.
Player to Watch: Jason Castro. The former top pick showed some on-base ability in 2012 and a bit of pop, although he struggled behind the plate. He will be 26 in two months, so 2013 is a big year for determining whether he can be a decent regular or will be a fringe starter at best.
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