Previewing Another Key Free Agency Period for Ryan Pace and the Bears

Back in December, I examined the Bears roster as it heads toward a critical year for Ryan Pace in 2018 (that post also contains a position-by-position look at roster needs, though it doesn't fully capture the recent string of cuts by Pace). With new coach Matt Nagy in house, Pace now has full control of the football operations to mold them in his image.

Free agency presents a key opportunity to add a difference maker or two to the roster as Pace searches for a path ahead as a contender. I won't rehash the entirety of that December article here, but suffice it to say, the Bears (1) have oodles of cap space, and (2) need to find a couple of long-term pieces in free agency, not mere patches. Pace attempted to do so with stud cornerback AJ Bouye last March, but despite outbidding the market for Bouye's services, the young defender wisely took a slightly lesser payday to join a contender in Jacksonville. Pace simply cannot whiff again this year. He has to find a few more Danny Trevathans, even at the risk of finding a few more Marcus Coopers along the way.

Speaking of Cooper, this look into free agency will include the final trimming of dead weight from the roster.

Here's a look at what I'd like to see from Pace consider over the next couple of weeks as he reshapes the roster. Not all of these moves will happen, and in fact, their likelihood decreases over the course of the article.

The Softies
These moves are easy, though none of them move the needle much in terms of expected wins or cap space spent.

1. Cut CB Marcus Cooper, WR Markus Wheaton, TE Dion Sims, and C Hroniss Grasu. Cooper is a no-brainer: he was a flop at corner, playing his way out of the rotation even when starters were injured, earning one of the lowest grades for a corner in the NFL (42.5 from PFF), and ignominously costing the team a regulation win over Pittsburgh by prancing toward the endzone, turning a touchdown into a fumble. Wheaton is a no-brainer, too: he caught three balls last year and graded as one of the worst receivers in the league (47.2). Grasu should also be a no-brainer, though it may be tough for Pace to pull the plug on the 71st pick in the 2015 draft, especially when Grasu's cap savings are so small ($0.7995K) compared to the likes of Cooper ($4.5M) and Wheaton ($5M). Still, a 31.5 grade from PFF is mind boggling. I have lots of bias in favor of Sims having watched him develop in high school and college, but his cap savings ($5.667M) far outpaces the value of taking an additional flyer on him. If the Bears can renegotiate his base salary from $6M to something south of $2M, fine, take another shot. But absent such a renegotiation, it should be curtains for him, too (44.4 from PFF).

***Following these cuts, the Bears would have a dead cap amount of $12,049,192. With $1.4M allotted to the practice squad, $7,557,070 allotted to their seven-pick draft pool, and $81,401,778 allotted to active roster spots between current players and cap holds, the Bears would have allocated $102,408,040 of their 2018 cap. Between the estimated 2018 cap and their rollover of unused space from 2017, the Bears' 2018 cap figure is expected to be approximately $184,683,039, yielding space of approximately $82.275M. Even leaving $10M+ for in-season moves and unexpected cuts, the Bears can safely spend around $70M against their 2018 cap.

2. Extend Second-Round Tender Offers to WR Cameron Meredith and CB Bryce Callahan, and Tender Exclusive Rights Free Agent S DeAndre Houston-Carson. Meredith (25 - 74.5 in 2016) and Callahan (26 - 82.9 from PFF) were both undrafted rookies who became productive restricted free agents. The second round tender amount figures to come in around $2.8M. That's a relatively meager sum for either of these players and it takes away the risk that the original round tender carries (namely, if some other team really likes one of these players, the Bears are left with no compensation draft pick if the player bolts). At two positions of extreme need, the Bears can ill-afford to take chances. Houston-Carson (25 - 53.5 from PFF in limited snaps) provides depth while the team sees if he has grown at all.

3. Sign DE Mitch Unrein to a two-year, $5M deal with $2.5M guaranteed. After floundering on the roster for a year or so, Unrein really emerged as a force last season, earning an eye-popping 83.9 grade from PFF. Working against him: Unrein is a 31-year-old who didn't earn consistent snaps until he was 28 and has never held a full-time gig. For a $1M signing bonus, a $500K Y1 roster bonus, and a $1M Y1 base salary, I think he stays. Further, bringing back Unrein for a part-time job makes lots of sense for the Bears as they see if Jonathan Bullard can take the next step after an encouraging 2017.

4. Sign K Caleb Sturgis to a one-year deal. I won't estimate the dollars for Sturgis coming off of an injury that cost him 95 percent of the 2017 season. I'll just note that he's above replacement level, a marked improvement.

5. Re-sign P Pat O'Donnell to a four-year deal. O'Donnell has acquitted himself well with the Bears, though he shouldn't be resetting the punting market in free agency. Something like $10M over four years should be fine.

6. Re-sign RB Benny Cunningham to a one-year deal. Cunningham (28 - 57.2 from PFF) is a perfect fit in the running back room as a third/fourth option who contributes regularly on special teams. He's cheap and reliable (unless he's diving for a pylon).

7. Don't Tender ILB John Timu, but Re-Sign him to a one-year deal. Timu (26) surprisingly graded well at PFF in his limited role last year (74.7), and as NFL defenses transition to a pass-first scheme, investing heavily in another inside linebacker doesn't make much sense with Trevathan and Nick Kwiatkoski both playing well. Timu is a run-first defender, so he's limited in his role. I bet that the Bears could get him back for less than the original round tender of $1.8M. Let's say $1M and a roster spot does it with $250K guaranteed.

The Low-Risk, High-Rewards
This section includes a group of players that, for one reason or another, come with above-average risk profiles but could blossom into difference makers for the Bears.

8. Sign OLB Alex Okafor OR OLB Trent Murphy to a four-year deal with $9M guaranteed (but really a glorified one-year deal). Okafor is one of very few viable every down edge defenders in this free agent class. He enjoyed a splendid season with the Saints prior to tearing his Achilles in November. At 27, he should have plenty in the tank provided that his rehab progresses smoothly (84.7 PFF). Murphy (27) is in a similar boat having torn both his ACL and MCL in August after continually improving his PFF grade from average to above-average scores to start his career (81.7 in 2016). Having the injury occur so early in the year should give Murphy a full shot at training camp. Both players would need a decent payday to vacate preferable situations with their previous teams, but the Bears are well-positioned to use dollars to attract either in order to add a desperately needed starting-caliber edge rusher. Dee Ford could also fit in this bucket, but he seems destined to stay in Kansas City despite a 2017 back injury that sapped his effectiveness this year. For either player, a hefty Y1 roster bonus with a similarly hefty non-guaranteed Y2 roster bonus paid early in the league year should work. Let's say a $2M signing bonus and a $5M Y1 roster bonus.

9. Sign WR Sammy Watkins to a four-year, $40M deal with $12M guaranteed (but really a glorified one-year deal). I thought that Buffalo's trade for Watkins in the 2014 draft was one of the worst moves I'd ever seen, but that doesn't change the fact that Watkins, 25, is still dripping with talent (76.2 PFF). He lacks the frame of a traditional go-to receiver, but he'd give Mitch Trubisky an excellent security blanket with good hands, deep speed, and actual production. Again, he's just 25 and dripping with talent. Would Watkins go for a hoard of Y1 cash? I think so: $4M signing bonus, $6M Y1 roster bonus, and a $2M base salary.

10. Sign WR Albert Wilson to a three-year, $12M deal with $4M guaranteed (but really a glorified one-year deal). Wilson to the Bears isn't even a poorly kept secret anymore because, well, it's barely a secret anymore. When asked if he hoped to retain Wilson, Chiefs GM Brett Veach replied, "Well, Matt's in Chicago," referring to Coach Nagy. It's quite possible that the only issue to square away here is the financial guarantee. Wilson was an undrafted free agent out of Georgia State and comes with a diminutive frame at 5'9", but his average grade (77.7) and age (25) make him a valuable commodity for the Bears as they rebuild the wide receiver room. For a $1M signing bonus, a $2M Y1 roster bonus, and a $1M base salary, I bet that Wilson would jump to Chicago.

The High-Risk, High-Rewards
This group includes the real draws of a free agency preview: the players who figure to get multi-year guarantees with big money attached. These are the players likely to make or break a team's record and cap sheet in the coming years.

11. Sign RT Ja'Wuan James to a five-year, $40M deal with $20M guaranteed (but really a glorified two-year deal) and Release RT Bobby Massie...but only if this is accomplished immediately. Massie leaves just $500K of dead money on the Bears' cap if he is released before the third day of the league year when he has a $1M roster bonus due. Massie is a below-average tackle, even after his massive improvment in the last 25 games or so. If the Bears can snag James, possibly set to hit free agency at 26 with a top pedigree and an above-average grade from PFF (80.0) due to Miami's salary cap woes, to man the right side, it's a clear upgrade with a long-term piece and one that isn't likely to cost much in terms of cash or cap space. A $5M signing bonus, guaranteed roster bonuses of $5M in Y1 and $3M in Y2, and base salaries of $2M in Y1 and $5M in Y2 should get it done. The last three years are gravy, but if James continues to produce, he'd be a bargain at that point.

12. Sign TE Trey Burton to a four-year, $24M deal with $11M guaranteed (but really a glorified two-year deal). Burton is what Sims was supposed to be: a younger, up-and-coming tight end who helps solidify the position. With the Bears targeting a run-heavy attack, having multiple playable tight ends is a must. Sims was a massive disappointment in Y1 of his deal, and given his history as an undrafted free agent and a part-time player, the Bears should be able to slide Burton into Sims' cap slot with ease. At 26 and coming off of a solid 75.6 PFF season, Burton would bring that much-needed additional big-bodied receiving target who can block. A $2M signing bonus, a $2M Y1 roster bonus, a $2M Y1 salary, and a guaranteed $5M in Y2 works. Annual salaries of $6M and $7M in Y3 and Y4, respectively, all make sense. The Bears could also consider taking a run at Buccaneers restricted free agent Cameron Brate, a huge red zone target coming off of a grade 80.0 season and still only 27, but I suspect Tampa Bay will match a Brate offer when forced to decide.

13. Sign CB Aaron Colvin to a five-year, $40M deal with $16M guaranteed (but really a glorified two-year deal). This one is a no-brainer to me. Colvin was a first-round talent who slipped to the fourth round in 2014 after tearing his ACL at the Senior Bowl. Colvin has proved to be an invaluable slot cornerback, and in 2018, that position is as valuable as an inside linebacker. He's likely to get squeezed out in Jacksonville due to a looming cap crunch, and the Bears should pounce. Colvin has a real shot to be next year's A.J. Bouye as a 26-year-old coming off of a strong season (80.0) ready to take another step. It's true that Colvin and Callahan likely occupy the same spot on the field, but having too many quality defensive backs never hurt anyone. I bet he'd be able to command a heftier signing bonus than most, so let's say a $5M signing bonus, a $4M Y1 roster bonus, $2M Y1 salary, and $4M Y2 salary are all guaranteed with annual salaries kicking up thereafter.

14. Sign CB Kyle Fuller to a five-year, $60M deal with $30M guaranteed (but really a glorified three-year deal). This is the big one. Fuller played well as a rookie, OK as a sophomore, not at all as a junior, and splendidly in his contract year in 2017. Fuller played like a top-of-the-market with a sterling 84.3 grade, and he'll be just 26 in 2018. It wasn't the smoothest process that got him to this point, but he's here. His final amount and guarantee should accordingly fall short of the elite recent free agents like Stephon Gilmore and Xavier Rhodes, but not by a ton. The $30M guarantee would be comprised of a $10M signing bonus, a $6M Y1 roster bonus, and guaranteed salaries of $5M in Y1 and $8M in Y2 with a $1M partial guarantee in Y3. Base salaries of $9M, $10M, and $12M over the last three years complete the deal.

***I'm going to stop here because, well, I like this roster a lot. There are numerous other players worth pursuing who I'll deteail below, but for now, here's the roster that the Bears would possess heading into the draft:

QB: Trubisky, ?????
RB: Howard, Cohen, Cunningham, Mizzell, Burton
WR: Watkins, Meredith, Wilson, White, ?????
TE: Burton, Shaheen, ?????, ?????
OT: James, Leno, ?????
OG: Long, Kush, Morgan
C:   Whitehair, ?????
NT: Goldman, ?????
DE: Hicks, Bullard, Unrein, Robertson-Harris, ?????
ILB: Trevathan, Kwiatkoski, Timu, ?????
OLB: Okafor, Floyd, ?????, ?????
CB: Fuller, Colvin, Callahan, LeBlanc, Hall, ?????
S: Amos, Jackson, Bush, Houston-Carson, ?????
SP: Sturgis, O'Donnell, ?????

Is that roster perfect? Of course not. Does it still desperately need a playmaker at OLB? Absolutely. Is the wide receiver group elite? No way! Should you be concerned about the lack of quarterback depth? Sure, go for it!

On the whole, however, I like the look of the group. The Bears add a couple of capable starting wide receivers, a pass rusher, a new body to the cornerback group, and otherwise focus on keeping the defense strong and the quarterback upright. Most importantly, the signings give the Bears control over a slew of free agents in their mid-20s, buying upside in future years as the team grows without locking in unsightly deals. The moves suggested above use $58.578M of net cap space, leaving room for an additional impact signing without crossing the $70M threshold and leaving even more room from the full cap.

I've believed for months that the Bears will work to shore up the receiving group via free agency and entrust the pass rushing influx to their draft class. Tremaine Edmunds, Bradley Chubb, or Arden Key would seem to fit the bill.

Finally, here's the quick-hitting part of the exercise: other players of note by position throughout the roster:

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick (35 - 73.2 from PFF) and Mark Sanchez (31) both seem like viable backup candidates. There's also plenty of sense in spending a mid-to-late-round pick on a project much like Washington did when they added Kirk Cousins to the fold in the fourth round after spending a bounty of Robert Griffin III. Obviously it's Trubisky or bust at QB, so I wouldn't expect major assets to be allocated to his backup.

WR: There are numerous options here, but the most attractive possibility in my book is Allen Robinson (25). Like Sims, I'm biased having watching Robinson in high school and cheered for him at Penn State, but there's little denying that he'd immediately become the team's best receiver if he came aboard. He is coming off of a knee injury that cost him all of 2017 -- save for three snaps -- but he's worth the risk. Taking a one-year shot on Terrelle Pryor (29) could make sense (43.1 PFF), as could targeting a trio of younger receivers with limited upside and some injury woes who nevertheless are of starting caliber: T.J. Jones (26 - 77.5 PFF), Marqise Lee (26 - 77.1 PFF), and Paul Richardson (26 - 72.4 PFF). A reunion with Kendall Wright (28 - 76.3 PFF) wouldn't be out of the question.

TE: The tight end crop is thin, hence attacking Burton above and mentioning Brate at the same time. I suppose that taking a shot at Jimmy Graham (31 - 54.1 PFF) could work, but he certainly doesn't fit the long-term angle.

OG: This is a spot where the team could make some noise, especially if they elect to stick with Massie at RT instead of going after James. Justin Pugh (28) had a nightmarish season in 2017 after being forced into service at RT (52.4 PFF), but his pedigree at LG is strong and he figures to have plenty of good years left (83.2 in 2016). I'm less excited about setting the top of the market with Andrew Norwell (26 - 88.8 PFF!) only because I don't like setting the market. Norwell would be a tremendous addition to any line.

DE: There are three really attractive options here that I didn't mention above. Former Jet Sheldon Richardson (27 - 83.3 PFF) really shined in Seattle, and he'd make the line much more ferocious than Bullard and Unrein, especially in passing situations. More recent former Jet Muhammad Wilkerson (28 - 79.8 PFF) really mailed it in after inking his massive extension, but there's no denying that the skill remains. He'd be a tremendous flyer on a prove-it deal, especially if Ryan Pace could attach a team option to it. Finally, former Nittany lineman DaQuan Jones (26 - 80.6 PFF) has grown into a nice two-way player on the line, though he's coming off of biceps surgery and may need some time to recover.

ILB: Given the need for defensive backs and outside linebackers, the abilities of Trevathan and Kwiatkoski, and the likely ability to bring Timu back at a modest cost, this position is unlikely to be addressed in a meaningful way. Nevertheless, NaVorro Bowman (30 - 84.8 PFF) has been ravaged by injuries but he remains a star level player when healthy. He also grew up in Vic Fangio's defense, and yes, I'm biased in his favor after his stellar career in blue and white. The Jets' Demario Davis (29) came out of nowhere to produce a strong season in 2017 (87.3 PFF), but he's probably looking for a bigger payday than the Bears can justify.

OLB: This is a real weak spot in free agency. Kony Ealy (26 - 74.6 PFF) had to fight for a roster spot in 2017, but he turned in a strong season that has folks rethinking his career. Seattle's Dion Jordan (28) was one of the more epic draft busts in recent memory, but he shined in a limited role last year (83.6). He could be worth a look. Atlanta's Adrian Clayborn (30) is too old and he's going to get paid for one game in which he racked up six sacks when Dallas refused to figure out what to do in Tyron Smith's absence (85.5 PFF though).

CB: Finally, we reach the juiciest spot. The cornerback marketplace is littered with starting-caliber options, a welcome sight for a Bears team in desperate need of multiple starters. Trumaine Johnson (28) has long been a favorite of mine, but after back-to-back seasons subject to the franchise tag, he'll hit free agency coming off of a down year for him (74.2 per PFF). Still, he's young enough and big enough to be an impact addition. The Bears' own Prince Amukamara (28) acquitted himself nicely in his lone season in Chicago (81.2), though he's older than the other targets on this list with more mileage on his body and a lengthier injury history. Darqueze Dennard (26) took some time to adjust to the NFL, but he reached a peak in 2017 (82.8), suggesting that he has made the adjustment (EDIT 3/9/18 @ 2:57pm: at the time of writing, reports indicated that the Bengals planned to rescind their fifth-year option on Dennard, making him a free agent. That appears to be inaccurate as he appears likely to stick in Cincinnati. Cross him off the list.). Malcolm Butler (28) infamously found himself on the Patriots bench during the Super Bowl while Nick Foles torched his team, but it wasn't because Butler struggled this year. On the contrary, he enjoyed another strong season (79.2). The last three options all come with quite different career paths. Oakland's T.J. Carrie (28) shined in 2017, posting an excellent season (84.3) as others struggled around him. His resume is light, however. Ross Cockrell (27) was similarly successful (81.6) but he was available for a conditional seventh-round pick as recently as eight months ago. Bizarre. Finally, Nickell Robey-Coleman (26) was the beneficiary of some extra playing time in the Rams' secondary and he excelled (84.9) given his opportunity. However, his resume is imperfect: an undrafted free agent, Robey-Coleman was solid in 2014, awful in 2015, strong in the slot in 2016, and superb in 2017. At 5'8", 165, it's possible that Robey-Coleman's size limitations scare away interested teams.

To close out the piece, there's one big name on the market that was suspiciously absent in this piece thus far: Dolphins' WR Jarvis Landry. Trading for Landry, just 25 and coming off of an 82.0 graded season, is fine provided that the Bears don't give up a terribly meaningful pick in order to give him a top-of-the-market extension. If they blow a quality pick and a serious chunk of cap space, well....just don't. This is a team that remains short on assets, so using valuable draft and financial capital on one player doesn't work.

(UPDATE 3/9/18 @ 9:08am: If Ndamukong Suh actually gets released by the Dolphins, Pace should lose his mind trying to get Suh to Chicago. He's a game-changing force in any defense, and though he has spent his entire career in a 4-3, I have no doubt that he'd be a force as a 3-4 DE. He's one of the truly elite linemen in the league and the Bears have plenty of cash and cap space to lure him back north.)

The Chicago Bears Finally Look Like a Real Contender...Starting in 2018

(I wrote most of this article in late-November (through the Arden Key pick and swapping the assumption re Demps on next year's roster), then wrote the rest in late-December. There may be some timeline funkiness, so just roll with it.)

I'm fresh off of attending the Bears-Lions game on November 19, 2017. While some folks watched that game and thought that the Bears still looked to be years away from competing, I saw a squad that is taking shape as a real contender ready for launch in 2018.

Why the disconnect?

There are a few reasons. One is recency bias. The Bears have stumbled twice in the last eight days, dropping back-to-back one-score home games to the Packers and Lions to turn a surprisingly relevant season into a surefire 5-11/6-10 campaign, as expected. Go back another week, however, and the Bears were looking tough and promising.

Two, the Bears current roster is below-average (at best), lacking the playmakers necessary to succeed in the NFL and the premium prospects required for reaching the upper echelon. Or so it appears.

Three, most folks spend far less time looking at the Bears' salary cap situation than I do. My familiarity with it gives me additional confidence, so let's get to explaining said confidence.

Perhaps most importantly: many of the club's veteran, bloated salaries belong substantially to players who will be cut in the offseason, leaving behind minimal salary cap hits. In one sense, this is bad: the most expensive players should be the best players, not the worst players. Yes, that's true. But when expensive players can be jettisoned for minimal cost, that's a good thing. Here's a list of easily-replaceable players at a fraction of their cost (you may want to shield your eyes now):

• WR Markus Wheaton
• 2018 Cap: $5.75M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.75M
• Easily Cut Because...Wheaton has one catch for nine yards. All season.
• CB Marcus Cooper
• 2018 Cap: $5.5M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $1M
• Easily Cut Because...Cooper's awful play has him out of the CB rotation.
• ILB Jerrell Freeman
• 2018 Cap: $4M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.5M
• Easily Cut Because...Freeman has now been suspended for PEDs and injured twice each in two years. The Bears may even be able to get out from his dead money entirely as a result.
• OLB Pernell McPhee
• 2018 Cap: $8.075M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $1M
• Easily Cut Because...McPhee's body hasn't recovered from a rash of knee injuries, negating his effectiveness.
• TE Dion Sims
• 2018 Cap: $6.333M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.667M
• Easily Cut Because...Sims made no impact in the passing game and $6M+ for a blocking tight end is ludicrous. Plus, he's been out with an injury so he's not gaining report with Trubisky.
• S Quintin Demps
• 2018 Cap: $4.333M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $0.667M
• Easily Cut Because...It's not an easy cut, per se, but it's an easier choice given the emergence of Amos and Jackson combined with the cheap depth options behind them.
• QB Mike Glennon
• 2018 Cap: $16M
• 2018 Dead Cap if Released: $4.5M (or $2M, perhaps)
• Easily Cut Because...Come on now.

There are other cut candidates -- Willie Young ($5.4M cap number or $0.9M dead) may need to prove he's fully healthy after tearing his triceps, Quintin Demps ($4.333M or $0.667M dead) will have a tough time wresting his starting job back from Adrian Amos, Bobby Massie ($6.1M or $0.5M dead) remains the weak link on the offensive line, and Eric Kush ($1.4M or $0 dead) figures to lose the backup guard spot to 2017 draftee Jordan Morgan -- but the seven above provide obvious, substantial relief against the salary cap, leaving just $9.084M behind (thanks Glennon).

The remaining players counting more than $1M against the cap in 2018:

• DE Akiem Hicks ($9.6M)
• G Kyle Long ($8.825M)
• G Josh Sitton ($8.667M)
• ILB Danny Trevathan ($7.15M)
• QB Mitch Trubisky ($6.598M)
• RT Bobby Massie ($6.1M)
• LT Charles Leno ($5.9M)
• OLB Willie Young ($5.4M)
• WR Kevin White ($5.27M)
• OLB Leonard Floyd ($4.304M)
• DT Eddie Goldman ($1.809M)
• G Eric Kush ($1.4M)
• TE Adam Shaheen ($1.343M)
• C Cody Whitehair ($1.152M)

That's...actually pretty darn good. The sub-$1M group is littered with contributors ranging from full-time starters like Amos, Nick Kwiatkoski, Eddie Jackson, Tarik Cohen, and Jordan Howard to part-time contributors like Crevon LeBlanc and Jonathan Bullard. Deiondre' Hall and Roy Robertson-Harris have struggled with injuries, but they carry intrigue nevertheless. Only C Hroniss Grasu has been a true bust who figures to hit the waiver wire in the coming months.

GM Ryan Pace finds himself needing to rebuild the cornerback position this offseason as his top two cover men -- Prince Amukamara and Kyle Fuller -- hit free agency in addition to Cooper following his inevitable release. Dollars will need to be used at that position. That was also true last year when Pace struck out on AJ Bouye in the spring and watched Bouye instead head to Jacksonville to form the NFL's best cornerback group alongside Jalen Ramsey. He can't miss again this year.

Let's look at the roster and its needs as we determine where the Bears are likely to spend their resources in the springtime.

Quarterback
2018 Players: Mitch Trubisky ($6.598M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 3
Analysis: This is Trubisky's bus to drive. Yes, the Bears need a backup here. Whether that's a mid-round pick or a veteran doesn't matter much.

Running Back
2018 Players: Jordan Howard ($0.692M), Tarik Cohen ($0.714M), Taquan Mizzell ($0.555M), Michael Burton ($0.705M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: The Bears will grab someone in the Benny Cunningham mold (perhaps the actual Benny Cunningham?), but like QB, this position rests on the shoulders of the young draftees.

Wide Receiver
2018 Players: Kevin White ($5.27M)
Needed Starters/Players: 2/4
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: Duh. The Bears need lots of bodies here, most of whom will be new. No listed: RFA Cameron Meredith, who will be retained on a yet-unknown (likely) one-year deal. Dontrelle Inman may also return -- Trubisky seems to like him -- and Kendall Wright could come back on another short deal. There are plenty of options here.

Tight End
2018 Players: Adam Shaheen ($1.343M), Daniel Brown ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/2
Level of Need: 8
Analysis: This, of course, assumes that Sims gets the boot. If he's back, the position probably looks more or less the same moving forward. It's Shaheen's job to grab and run with it.

Offensive Tackle
2018 Players: Charles Leno ($5.9M), Bobby Massie ($6.1M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 7
Analysis: I'm still bummed that Ryan Pace lost his mind and paid Leno like he is a starting-caliber tackle. He's probably about the 28th best left tackle at any given time. It's worth seeing if he continues to improve, but the Bears would be wise to plan for his replacement. The mediocre Massie will be in the final year of his deal as well.

Offensive Guard
2018 Players: Josh Sitton ($8.667M), Kyle Long ($8.825M), Eric Kush ($1.4M), Jordan Morgan ($0.629M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: The team's best position group. It's Sitton's walk year, but his replacement can be found later and possibly even in-house if Morgan develops.

Center
2018 Players: Cody Whitehair ($1.152M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: Whitehair has struggled some this year, but on the whole, he still looks like a core piece moving ahead.

Nose Tackle
2018 Players: Eddie Goldman ($1.809M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/1
Level of Need: 1
Analysis: Goldman has stayed healthy and though his play has been more "good" than "great," he still looks like a keeper.

Defensive End
2018 Players: Akiem Hicks ($9.6M), Jonathan Bullard ($0.925M), Roy Robertson-Harris ($0.557M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/1
Level of Need: 5
Analysis: The Bears would love to add another rotation player here, but they'd love even more for Bullard to emerge in December as a likely starter for next year's squad. If that happens, expect them to consider bringing back Mitch Unrein on another cheap deal.

Inside Linebacker
2018 Players: Danny Trevathan ($7.15M), Nick Kwiatkoski ($0.774M), Jonathan Anderson ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/1
Level of Need: 5
Analysis: Given Trevathan's injury history and Kwiatkoski's solid but unspectacular play, the club would be best served grabbing another starting-caliber ILB. That could very well be Jerrell Freeman back on a minimum-salary deal.

Outside Linebacker
2018 Players: Leonard Floyd ($4.304M), Willie Young ($5.4M)
Needed Starters/Players: 1/3
Level of Need: 9
Analysis: 3-4 OLBs have to get into the backfield. Floyd and Young both come with upside (much more for Floyd) and injury histories. The Bears need to find another viable rusher to make the defense click.

Cornerback
2018 Players: Crevon LeBlanc ($0.63M)
Needed Starters/Players: 3/5
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I don't think that LeBlanc can hold the position group together all by himself. Bryce Callahan likely comes back as an RFA.

Safety
2018 Players: Adrian Amos ($0.763M), Eddie Jackson ($0.721M), Deon Bush ($0.762M), DeAndre Houston-Carson ($0.63M), Deiondre' Hall ($0.758M)
Needed Starters/Players: 0/0
Level of Need: 0
Analysis: After so many years of desperately needing to find a safety, the Bears don't need one anymore. There's no way each of these six makes the final roster next year. The most likely outcomes? Either (i) Demps gets cut, or (ii) Houston-Carson gets cut.

Specialists
2018 Players: None
Needed Starters/Players: 3/3
Level of Need: 10
Analysis: I hope/suspect that the front office will keep Pat O'Donnell around -- he has acquitted himself nicely on the whole during his team in the league thus far. The kicking job should be up for grabs. No comment re long snappers.

Assuming that the above moves are made -- Wheaton, Cooper, Freeman, McPhee, Sims, and Glennon are cut while everyone else above sticks around -- the Bears would have $9.626M in dead money (their $8.417M of dead cap money plus $1.209M from those released last year). Not an enviable total but not a brutal amount by any stretch. The 31 players listed above account for approximately $88.926M of cap space.

The Bears are projected to have the sixth-worst record in the league (5-11) but lose every tiebreaker with other 5-win teams, so they should pick ninth. They own all of their own picks except for their third-round choice and they also own Arizona's fourth-round pick. Arizona is projected to have the 13th-worst record in the league. Accordingly, the Bears are expected to own picks 9, 41, 116, 120, 153, 193, and 227 (though 227 may head to San Diego thanks to the Inman trade). Last year, players chosen in those spots had combined cap numbers of about $7.6M. It's possible and even probable that Pace will trade down and add picks as he has in recent years, but adding a non-first round pick to the tally barely touches the cap at all.

Once we add the draft holds to the guaranteed hits above, we have a total spend of $96.526M with 13 spots to go. At present, the Bears are projected to have an adjusted cap of approximately $175.302M next year, yielding $78.776M of cap space entering free agency. Yowzers!

The offense would have huge needs at wide receiver and tight end while the defense would need a gaggle of new cornerbacks and a handful of linebackers. And some of that space would be used on extensions for the likes of Goldman and Amos. Still, there's lots of money to go around, so here are the proposed free agent deals and draft picks.

Free Agency

1. Sign WR Cam Meredith to a one-year, $3M deal (approximate second round tender)
2. Sign CB Bryce Callahan to a one-year, $2M deal (approximate original round tender)
3. Sign QB Chad Henne to a one-year, $3.5M deal
4. Sign P Pat O'Donnell to a three-year, $9M deal
5. Sign WR Dontrelle Inman to a two-year, $6M deal
6. Sign WR Kendall Wright to a one-year, $2M deal
7. Sign OLB Lamarr Houston to a one-year, $2M deal
8. Sign CB Trumaine Johnson to a five-year, $80M deal
9. Sign CB Prince Amukamara to a three-year, $27M deal
10. Sign ILB Demario Davis to a four-year, $34M deal

I'd love to nab somebody significant for the receiver group like Allen Robinson or Jarvis Landry, but such an expenditure may not be wise with limited snaps to go around and so many solid targets with the hopeful returns of Meredith and White. The most important additions appear to be the last three.

That octet would use up approximately $50M in cap space, just over half of the club's allotment. Dang.

NFL Draft

Pick #9: OLB Arden Key, LSU

----- Key is violent, fast, and has incredible bend in his upper half. He probably won't make it to #9, but if he does, the Bears would be thrilled.

Pick #41: WR Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame

----- If St. Brown actually falls this far on draft day (as is currently projected), the Bears will be seriously hard-pressed to pass. He's got an elite receiver's body with excellent flexibility. A year ago at this time, his name was being bandied about with the likes of A.J. Green and Julio Jones. The only thing that changed? Brandon Wimbush replaced DeShone Kizer. St. Brown looks like this year's Alshon Jeffery to me, without the off-field murmurs, as a receiver who falls in a big way without much sense. He'd be a huge addition.

Pick #116: TE Mike Gesicki, Penn State

----- Gesicki's leaping ability and hands are tremendous. His route running isn't as developed as you'd like and his blocking is generally poor. That's a quality mid-round prospect.

Pick #120: OLB Chad Thomas, Miami

----- Thomas doesn't look like an every-down monster in the NFL, but he comes with an elite pedigree (5-star recruit) and impressive tape as a senior. Given his larger body (265 lbs.), it's easy to envision him playing with his hand in the dirt in obvious pass rushing situations in the NFL, a role he appears well-suited to play.

Pick #153: CB Holton Hill, Texas

----- Hill comes with the big body that so many teams covet. He doesn't move as fluidly as the elite corners in the game, but he'd be a strong depth addition to the team.

Pick #193: NT Michael Hill, Ohio State
----- It's not clear why Hill was suspended multiple times during his career at Ohio State. It is clear that he is massive at 320 pounds and that he occasionally commands double-teams in college. With some impressive first-step quickness and an ability to get into the backfield, he could be a nice depth piece behind Goldman.

Pick #227: K Eddy Pineiro, Florida
----- Pineiro has bizarre mechanics and, incredibly, he didn't plan to kick in college, only taking it up again when his junior college needed a man for the job. I have questions about his ability to kick accurately over time, but the leg strength is impressive, as is his 78% touchback percentage. He'd be a boon to the roster.

53-Man Roster

QB (2): Trubisky, Henne

RB (5): Howard, Cohen, Mizzell, Burton, ?????

WR (5): White, Meredith, Inman, Wright, St. Brown
TE (4): Shaheen, Gesicki, Brown, ?????
OT (3): Leno, Massie, ?????
OG/C (5): Sitton, Long, Whitehair, Kush, Morgan
DT (2): Goldman, Hill
DE (4): Hicks, Bullard, Robertson-Harris, ?????
ILB (4): Trevathan, Davis, Kwiatkoski, Anderson
OLB (5): Floyd, Young, Houston, Key, Thomas
CB (6): Johnson, Amukamara, Callahan, LeBlanc, Hill, ?????
S (5): Amos, Jackson, Bush, Houston-Carson, Hall
SP (3): O'Donnell (P), Pineiro (K), ????? (LS)

So there we go. That's a team with plenty of potential, but also one that needs to stay healthy and get notable second-year jumps from Trubisky, Shaheen, and Co. in addition to much-needed third-year jumps from Floyd (to elite status) and Bullard (to regular status).

Penn State's 2018 Recruiting Class is Like None I've Ever Seen

There's nothing particularly profound to say here: James Franklin just signed one of the best classes in school history.

To say that Penn State hit a lull in recruiting in the final years under Joe Paterno would be a significant understatement. Here is the team's composite ranking according to 247sports since the star-studded 2006 class, covering Paterno's final five classes (before the gutted 2012 class):

2007: 39th (14 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 4 ★★★★, 9 ★★★)
2008: 40th (15 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 9 ★★★)
2009: 19th (24 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 7 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)
2010: 13th (18 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 13 ★★★★, 5 ★★★)

2011: 31st (16 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

Those classes aren't bad, but they're basically equivalent to what Michigan State did over the same span of time. That's not meant to be disrespectful to Sparty at all: Mark Dantonio built a juggernaut during that time and he's one of college football's elites in my mind. Recruiting doesn't win games. Nevertheless, Penn State would be expected to enjoy substantially more recruiting success.

The 2012 class was decimated by the sanctions, though Bill O'Brien incredibly led the program through that difficult time to produce OK results.

2012: 47th (20 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 3 ★★★★, 16 ★★★)

The on-field results with those players were as expected: after the veteran-laden 2009 squad turned in their second-straight 11-2 season, the 2010-15 Nitts were...mediocre:

2010: 7-6
2011: 9-4
2012: 8-4
2013: 7-5
2014: 7-6
2015: 7-6

Obviously the sanctions played a role in those results, but Penn State going six years without a 10-win season and going just 45-31 in the aggregate isn't too terribly impressive.

O'Brien's sole recruiting cycle didn't yield a banner class, but he kept enough of the Class of 2013 together to cobble together a solid group:

2013: 33rd (16 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 3 ★★★★, 11 ★★★)

Incredibly, the top eight players in that class by Rivals -- Christian Hackenberg, Adam Breneman, Garrett Sickels, Brendan Mahon, DaeSean Hamilton, Andrew Nelson, Brandon Bell, and Curtis Cothran -- all enjoyed multiple years of starting in college with a handful spending time in the NFL, too. That's rare in recruiting.

Regardless, this post both is and isn't about the Paterno/O'Brien classes. It's primarily about Franklin's incredible success on the recruiting trail. And that starts with his unholy, remarkable run in the month before signing day in 2014.

2014: 24th (25 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 5 ★★★★, 20 ★★★)

O'Brien had put together a solid class, but jumped for the NFL on January 2nd. Franklin was hired on January 11th. Of the 25-member class, nine commits joined the group after Franklin's hire. Nine. Included in that group: DE Torrence Brown, CB Christian Campbell, CB Amani Oruwariye, WR Saeed Blacknall, LB Koa Farmer, CB Grant Haley, and QB Trace McSorley. Now that's a good month. The O'Brien portion of the class produced relatively fewer impact players, but three pass catchers arrived -- TE Mike Gesicki and WRs Chris Godwin and De'Andre Thompkins -- that changed the fortunes of the Nittany offense.

Franklin's full recruiting classes, however, have been impactful across the board.

2015: 14th (25 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 13 ★★★★, 12 ★★★)

2016: 20th (20 recruits, 1 ★★★★★, 7 ★★★★, 11 ★★★)

2017: 15th (22 recruits, 0 ★★★★★, 11 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

Unsurprisingly, the on-field results have followed with a pair of 10-win seasons and a returning roster/schedule for 2018 that should leave Nittany with a 9-win floor (if they lose @ Michigan and two of the following three: @ Pitt, Ohio State, and Michigan State) and a ceiling that is...higher than that.

The 2018 class figures to further fuel the renaissance in State College. All verbals except for three-star Shaquon Anderson-Butts have signed, and even if this class doesn't get another commitment -- Nittany is considered the favorite for top-100 OT Rasheed Walker and among the favorites for top-300 targets DE Jayson Oweh and legacy WR Solomon Enis -- it'll be the best class at Penn State...ever?

2018: 4th (22 recruits, 3 ★★★★★, 9 ★★★★, 10 ★★★)

That overall ranking will drop to the 6-10 range once elite players fill out the ranks at Alabama, Clemson, and the like, but that's still an elite class. And here's the whole point of this post: the players that comprise the class are largely players targeted by those elite peer institutions. Here's the top five offers for each player in the Penn State class (using my own highly unofficial prestige rankings).

• ★★★★★ DE/OLB Micah Parsons
• Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Florida
• ★★★★★ WR Justin Shorter (Shorter committed in Aug. '16)
• Miami, Michigan, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Pitt
• ★★★★★ RB Ricky Slade
• Ohio State, Miami, Florida, Virginia Tech, Pitt
• ★★★★ OT Nana Asiedu
• Clemson, Florida, Michigan, Georgia, LSU
• ★★★★ DT P.J. Mustipher
• Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Michigan
• ★★★★ TE Zack Kuntz
• Alabama, Ohio State, Notre Dame, LSU, Michigan
• ★★★★ WR Jahan Dotson
• Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Georgia, Notre Dame
• ★★★★ TE Pat Freiermuth (like Shorter, Freiermuth committed in Aug. '16)
• Notre Dame, Maryland, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Rutgers
• ★★★★ C Juice Scruggs
• Ohio State, LSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Pitt
• ★★★★ OLB Jesse Luketa
• Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Stanford, Pitt (and most of the Ivy League)
• ★★★★ WR Daniel George
• Wisconsin, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Iowa, Maryland
• ★★★★ LB Nick Tarburton
• Pitt, Michigan State, Maryland, Louisville, Syracuse
• ★★★ CB Jordan Miner
• Georgia, Florida, Auburn, Oregon, Wisconsin
• ★★★ CB Trent Gordon
• Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, LSU, Michigan
• ★★★ DT Aeneas Hawkins
• Ohio State, Clemson, USC, Miami, Georgia
• ★★★ DE Judge Culpepper
• Alabama, USC, Notre Dame, Georgia, Florida
• ★★★ S Isaiah Humphries
• Oklahoma, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Colorado
• ★★★ LB Charlie Katshir
• Pitt, West Virginia, Rutgers, Virginia, Indiana
• ★★★ OT Bryce Effner
• Syracuse, Minnesota, Duke, Missouri, Kansas State
• ★★★ QB Will Levis
• Florida State, Mississippi, North Carolina, Iowa, Syracuse (and most of the Ivy League)
• ★★★ K Jake Pinegar
• Indiana, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, Western Illinois

There are a lot of huge names on that list. And here are the other players that remain unsigned (Anderson-Butts) or high-level targets:

• ★★★★ DE Tyreke Smith
• Alabama, Ohio State, USC, Georgia, Notre Dame
• ★★★★ OT Rasheed Walker
• Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame, Florida, Michigan
• ★★★★ DE Jayson Oweh
• Ohio State, Notre Dame, Miami, Florida, Michigan
• ★★★★ WR Solomon Enis
• USC, Oregon, Georgia, UCLA, Mississippi
• ★★★ WR Shaquon Anderson-Butts
• Notre Dame, Florida, Oregon, Nebraska, Pitt

According to the highly official crystal ball on 247, Nittany has no shot at Smith (Ohio State), but they're a lock for Enis (100%), a near-lock for Walker (94%) and a surprising late strong play for Oweh (83%). Anderson-Butts is unique in that he has been a hard commit for a year but didn't sign during the early signing period amid speculation he may look elsewhere, perhaps fueled in part by the monster commitments of Shorter, George, and Dotson and the likely impending addition of Enis. It's also possible the Isheem Young's legal troubles have pushed the coaching staff to ask Anderson-Butts to play safety instead of wide receiver. There's too much speculation here to know for sure.

Regardless of what happens with Walker, Oweh, Enis, and Anderson-Butts, Nittany's recruiting haul this year sets the team up for immense success into the next decade as the team transitions from McSorley to Stevens to Clifford at QB and as the coaching staff coalesces with a new group around James Franklin when coordinators leave for head coaching opportunities. It's a very exciting time for Nittany ball.

Penn State Was Great in 2017...But the Team Could Enjoy Greater Success in 2018. Really.

That title seems absurd: Saquon Barkley has either one or zero games remaining as a Nittany Lion (I hope it's zero, despite reports that he'll play in the Cotton/Orange/Peach/Outback Bowl). Barkley is a generational talent and he'll be desperately missed by next year's team. How could Penn State possibly

But that's just the thing: football is a team sport, not an individual one. Michigan has an outstanding defensive front seven, a stable of strong running backs, and an offensive line that can run block against any team in the country. Alas, they're a disaster at quarterback with a leaky secondary. Result? 8-4 with a trio of multi-score losses.

Penn State has endured many seasons like that where a particular position group proved to be the downfall of the team as a whole.

Next year? Next year there doesn't appear to be such a position group. Here's a group-by-group look at next year's team with their 2018 class year listed and their Rivals recruiting ranking in parentheses with new starters in italics:

Quarterback
Projected Starter: RS SR Trace McSorley (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Tommy Stevens (★★★), RS FR Sean Clifford (★★★★), RS SO Jake Zembiec (★★★★)
Recruits: Will Levis (★★★)
Losses: None

McSorley was second-team All-Big Ten in 2017 after being second-team All-Big Ten in 2016. He'll have a good shot of staying at that level in 2018. Stevens has played plenty and looks like a larger, slower version of McSorley. Notably, Clifford beat out Zembiec on this year's depth chart and held the #3 job all season.

Rating: ★★★★★

Running Back
Projected Starter: JR Miles Sanders (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Andre Robinson (★★★), RS SR Mark Allen (★★), RS FR Journey Brown (★★★)
Recruits: Ricky Slade (★★★★)
Losses: Saquon Barkley

Sanders will get his time to shine, and given what he's shown so far and his pedigree as the top back in his high school class, he should do so. Robinson and Allen are capable backups and Brown should carve out a complementary role in his time, but Slade is the real future here. I suspect that the coaching staff will attempt to redshirt him, but he may force his way onto the field.

Rating: ★★★★

Wide Receiver
Projected Starters: RS JR Juwan Johnson (★★★★), RS SR DeAndre Thompkins (★★★★), RS JR Irvin Charles (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Brandon Polk (★★★), RS SO Dae'lun Darien (★★★), RS FR K.J. Hamler (★★★★), RS FR Mac Hippenhammer (★★★), RS FR Mac Hippenhammer (★★★)
Recruits: Justin Shorter (★★★★), Daniel George (★★★★), Shaquon Anderson-Butts (★★★)
Losses: DaeSean Hamilton

The Nittany Lions lost Chris Godwin to the third round of the 2017 NFL Draft, but DaeSean Hamilton rediscovered his freshman year magic, producing a huge season. Next year, it'll be all about Juwan Johnson who emerged as a go-to target. Listed at 6-4, 226 pounds, Johnson will likely be off to the NFL after the 2018 season, but in his redshirt junior year, he'll pair with seasoned veteran DeAndre Thompkins to lead the way.

The two bits of intrigue here: which undersized youngster wins time in the slot (my bet is Polk first and then Hamler) and how long can the coaches keep Shorter, the 6-3, 220-pound consensus top-50 overall player, on the bench? If Johnson and Thompkins are healthy, it'll be for a while. But if there's an injury, expect McSorley to target Shorter with regularity.

Rating: ★★★★

Tight End
Projected Starters: RS JR Jonathan Holland (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Nick Bowers (★★★), RS SO Danny Dalton (★★★)
Recruits: Patrick Freiermuth (★★★★), Zack Kuntz (★★★★)
Losses: Mike Gesicki, Tom Pancoast

It's almost like the recruiting staff thought Gesicki was going to be around forever. Alas, eligibility rules being what they are, Gesicki is off to the NFL after a decorated career in blue and white, leaving behind an uncertain position group.

I have plenty of hope for Holland after he forced his way into a role in 2017, but the real hope here lies with Freiermuth and Kuntz. One of them will likely earn some playing time in 2018: the smart money is on the bulldozing Freiermuth. Nevertheless, while the position is healthy going forward, 2018 could be lean.

Rating: ★★★

Offensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS JR Ryan Bates (★★★★), RS SO Will Fries (★★★★)
Reserves: RS SO Alex Gellerstedt (★★★), RS SR Chasz Wright (★★★), RS JR Sterling Jenkins (★★★), RS FR Des Holmes (★★★), RS FR C.J. Thorpe (★★★★)
Recruits: Nana Asiedu (★★★★), Antwan Reed (★★★★)  Bryce Effner (★★★)
Losses: Andrew Nelson

Bates is the best lineman on the team and the offense's struggles can be tied to the moment he left the Ohio State game with an injury. Fries is nowhere near Bates' level, but on the right side, he's an asset.

The depth, however, remains a big concern. The only other tackles listed on the depth chart in 2017 were Wright, who struggled mightily, and Gellerstedt, who didn't play any meaningful snaps. Jenkins has been a major bust after being an Under Armour All-American and while Thorpe, Reed, and particularly Asiedu all look like plausible future starters, injuries have created a major gap in the depth chart. Here's hoping for better health in 2018.

Rating: ★★★★

Interior Offensive Line
Projected Starters: RS JR Steven Gonzalez (★★★), RS SO Michal Menet (★★★★), JR Connor McGovern (center) (★★★★)
Reserves: RS FR Mike Miranda (★★★), RS FR Robbie Martin (★★★)
Recruits: Juice Scruggs (center) (★★★★)
Losses: Brendan Mahon

If you thought the tackle group was thin, just wait until you see the guards. McGovern has been a stud from day one at center, but the guard positions are far less certain.

At various times in the past year, it seemed as though Menet or Miranda would force his way into the starting lineup, but Mahon and Gonzalez managed to hold them off. Given some run blocking struggles during Big Ten play, this is none too encouraging.

Rating: ★★★

Defensive Tackle
Projected Starters: RS JR Kevin Givens (★★★), RS JR Robert Windsor (★★★)
Reserves: RS SO Ellison Jordan (★★★), RS SO Antonio Shelton (★★★), RS FR Cory Bolds (★★★), RS FR Fred Hansard (★★★★)
Recruits: Aeneas Hawkins (★★★★), PJ Mustipher (★★★★)
Losses: Parker Cothren, Curtis Cothran

Defensive tackle was a true position of strength at Penn State for nearly a decade, but that hasn't been true for the past two seasons and 2018 doesn't appear to be in line to break that streak. Givens flashed plenty in 2016, then struggled to find playing time this year.

There is, however, one way in which that could be true: if top 2017 recruit Hansard bursts out of nowhere to become an every-down caliber player. Without that, it's going to be another thin year inside before the prized 2018 recruits can begin to put their stamp on the system. Even then, Hawkins probably needs to add 30 pounds before he can be in line for a starting gig, so 2020 may be the target for this position group. Gulp.

Rating: ★★★

Defensive End
Projected Starters: RS SR Torrence Brown (★★★), RS JR Ryan Buchholz (★★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Shareef Miller (★★★), RS SO Shane Simmons (★★★★), SO Yetur Gross-Matos (★★★★), RS SO Shaka Toney (★★★), RS SO Daniel Joseph (★★★), RS FR Damion Barber (★★★)
Recruits: Judge Culpepper (★★★★)
Losses: None

Whereas defensive tackle is a traditionally strong position that has fallen on hard times, defensive end has been and remains a spot of strength. Unfortunate injuries to Brown and Buchholz have given Miller, Simmons, Toney, and Gross-Matos chances to get on the field. Gross-Matos in particular earned himself a significant look down the stretch. Of course, all eyes remain on the recruiting trail where prized former commit Micah Parsons lingers...

Even without Parsons in tow, this group looks strong now and moving forward.

Rating: ★★★★

Linebacker
Projected Starters: RS SR Koa Farmer (★★★★), SR Manny Bowen (★★★★), RS FR Ellis Brooks (★★★★)
Reserves: JR Cam Brown (★★★), RS JR Jarvis Miller (★★★), SR Jake Cooper (★★★), RS FR Brelin Faison-Walden (★★★★), RS FR Brailyn Franklin (★★★)
Recruits: Jesse Luketa (★★★★), Nick Tarburton (★★★★), Charlie Katshir (★★★)
Losses: Jason Cabinda, Brandon Smith

Yikes. Farmer was recruited as a safety/linebacker hybrid, but his bulked-up body has been too slow to play strong pass coverage. Bowen has been good when on the field...but he was mysteriously suspended in mid-November and missed multiple games for it after being suspended late in 2016 as well. It'll be tough to count on him going forward. Brown handled himself well in a somewhat limited run, though he's undersized for defending the run.

Accordingly, Penn State needs a lot to break right in 2018 to have a strong linebacking group. The best bets for such a result: an explosion from Brooks and a highly successful redshirt year from either Faison-Walden or Fanklin. Here's hoping. This rating reflects the fact that there is a lot of volatility here.

Rating: ★★

Cornerback
Projected Starters: RS SR Amani Oruwariye (★★★), RS JR John Reid (★★★★)
Reserves: SO Lamont Wade (★★★★★), SO Tariq Castro-Fields (★★★★), RS SO Zech McPhearson (★★★), RS FR Donovan Johnson (★★★★), RS FR DJ Brown (★★★)
Recruits: Jordan Miner (★★★★), Trent Gordon (★★★★)
Losses: Grant Haley, Christian Campbell

The losses here are notable as Haley enjoyed a sparkling career at Penn State and Campbell emerged as an every-down player as a senior.

However, this position more than any other has loaded up on talent over the years and is reaping those rewards. Even if Reid can't return from his spring knee injury, this group is deep and extremely strong. If Reid comes back at 90% of his 2016 production, the secondary will remain the defense's strength in 2018.

Rating: ★★★★

Safety
Projected Starters: RS SR Nick Scott (★★★), RS JR Ayron Monroe (★★★)
Reserves: RS JR Garrett Taylor (★★★★), RS JR Johnny Petrishen (★★★), RS FR Jonathan Sutherland (★★★★)
Recruits: Isheem Young (★★★★), Isaiah Humphries (★★★)
Losses: Marcus Allen, Troy Apke

Marcus Allen is a huge loss, a consistent All-Big Ten performer as a four-year starter. Those are tough to find. But the Nittany Lions are trying to find another Allen, tossing significant resources at the back of the secondary in recent years. A couple of program losses have created a gap on the depth chart that Sutherland will attempt to fill. If the role proves too tough, don't be surprised to see Young play his way into snaps as a true freshman.

(Edit: being arrested for armed robbery was not a good way for Young to get playing time as a true freshman...or to get onto the team at all. What a devastatingly bad story.)

Rating: ★★★

Specialists
Projected Starters: RS SO Alex Barbir (★★★), JR Blake Gillikin (punter) (★★★)
Reserves: None
Recruits: Jake Pinegar (★★)
Losses: Tyler Davis (kicker)

It's tough to call this position a rousing success not knowing how Barbir will kick for accuracy, but Gillikin has been a godsend since arriving two years ago and should continue his All-Big Ten ways into the future. He'd get five stars, but until Barbir kicks in a game, this group remains limited.

Rating: ★★★★

Coaching
Projected Starters: James Franklin (head), Brent Pry (defense), ????? (offense)
Reserves: None
Recruits: None
Losses: Joe Moorhead

Franklin has recruited like a superhero, and it's tough to argue with his results following September 2016's beatdown at the Big House: a 19-3 record with a three-point loss at USC, a one-point loss at Ohio State, a three-point loss at Michigan State, and a Big Ten championship. If the Nitts win their bowl game, it'll make for a second straight top-10 finish. Not bad at all!

Alas, Franklin's gameday coaching still leaves something to be desired, and he'll almost certainly head into 2018 without offensive guru Joe Moorhead who figures to find a tasty head coaching opportunity in the coming days (edit: he's off to Starkville to replace Dan Mullen - awesome fit for Joe!). Congratulations to Moorhead for getting his shot and thanks to him for a couple of thrilling years!

It sounds like Ricky Rahne or Andrew Breiner will likely replace Moorhead. Here's hoping for continuing innovation in that spot.

Rating: ★★★

In the aggregate, next year's team looks very strong. Yes, they'll miss the star power of Barkley, Allen, and Gesicki as well as the strong veteran presences of Mahon, Cabinda, and Haley, but the talent on the roster is on the upswing. In a team game, that's what really matters. Returning 4/5 of the offensive line, a budding elite receiver, an elite punter, a deep and talented defensive end rotation, a strong secondary, and, most importantly, a three-year starter at quarterback is a recipe for success.

Perhaps most importantly for the team as a whole, the schedule shapes up quite favorably to make a big run. Unlike 2017 where Penn State got stuck playing Michigan, Ohio State, and Michigan State in order, including the last two on the road, the 2018 schedule doesn't feature anything as daunting. Here it is:

Appalachian State
@ Pittsburgh
Kent State
@ Illinois
Ohio State
BYE
Michigan State
@ Indiana
Iowa
@ Michigan
Wisconsin
@ Rutgers
Maryland

Pitt is generally dicey as a road rivalry game, especially given their penchant for upsetting top-five teams, though Penn State enjoys a marked talent advantage and should have plenty of home fans.

Getting Ohio State at home after back-to-back gimmes and before the Bye is ideal.

Getting Michigan State after the Bye is great.

Only the Iowa/@ Michigan/Wisconsin portion of the schedule shapes up poorly, and even then, two of those three are at home. Not bad. It's rare to have four of a team's five toughest games at home, but that's just what Penn State has with Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin all visiting Happy Valley.

In order to win the Big Ten, Penn State will have to (1) win its home games, even the tough ones, or (2) find a way to beat Michigan in Ann Arbor. Neither of those items will be easy to check off of the to-do list, but that's what it takes to win a championship. So be it.