Chicago Bears Mock Offseason: End of 2024 Edition

The Bears haven't won since mid-October. Yikes. Let's move back to the offseason. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like the most recent detailed one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut G Nate Davis (already gone!), TE Gerald Everett, and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. The GM -- whether Ryan Poles or his replacement -- will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left. Given his numerous injury issues this year and the likelihood of a new regime entering the picture, let's assume that Bates is gone.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same opportunities at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping he's better than the last four.

Free Agency

The Bears figure to have about $70.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will surely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for at least three starters on the offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $88M deal with $65M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of need. This isn't complicated.
2. Sign S Tre'Von Moehrig to a 3-year, $24M deal with $15M guaranteed. Moehrig is a reliable starter who has played at least 900 snaps in every season of his career while producing roughly league-average results. There's value here in his run defense even though his coverage will likely be a liability.
3. Sign DT Milton Williams to a 3-year, $21M deal with $15M guaranteed. Williams has grown into a nice complementary piece in Philadelphia. With this deal, the Bears kick him up into a top-three rotational job.
4. Sign OG Kevin Zeitler to a 1-year, $8M deal guaranteed. This is a bet that Kiran Amegadjie improves significantly with a full offseason to round back into form and settles into a long-term home at G. If he doesn't, former Bear James Daniels makes considerably more sense as the target here. Zeitler instead comes in as a placeholder to help Amegadjie along.
5. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $5M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he has changed the story at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag.
6. Sign DE Darrell Taylor to a 1-year, $3M deal. Taylor has been a solid addition who isn't good enough to command even a low-level starting gig in free agency.
7. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every year. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.

The above spending utilizes about $56M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for CB Kyler Gordon. If LT Braxton Jones and S Jaquan Brisker are able to stay healthy and produce, in-season extensions that utilize 2025 cap space could also be on the table.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. I only made one edit to PFF's draft tool and it's a big one: the draft order. It's a bad year to be a (likely) 4-13 team as the Bears will end up drafting 7th, 8th, or 9th with that record. For reference, the 4-13 squad in the worst draft position over the three years of the 17-game schedule era selected 4th, 3rd, and 5th. Oh boy. Given that the Panthers and Jets each have two games remaining against desperate teams, I dropped the Bears to 9th in the draft order.

Entering the Draft, the needs are obvious: an impact DE, a potential LT (who doesn't have to start in 2025 but needs the ceiling of a star), another rotational DT, possibly a CB to step in for Tyrique Stevenson if Stevenson goes full pumpkin, a S to potentially follow Brisker and Byard (along with Moehrig), and a pass catcher, whether at WR or TE. If there's a developmental C, too, that's nice.

With that in mind, here we go!

#9: Penn State DE Abdul Carter

I have my concerns about Carter. He was wiped out by West Virginia's Wyatt Milum and, to a less extent, by Minnesota's Aireontae Ersery. But he was the best DE in the country in spite of those performances, and he's the kind of jet-powered explosive rusher that the Bears so desperately need. Carter is the choice.

Carter and Michigan DT Mason Graham are the only two players here for whom I wouldn't consider trading down.

Bears Trade #39 to Denver for #54, #86, and #123

The best players are the board here were DEs that I liked, especially Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen. Having drafted Carter, however, the value of a trade was far higher than double-dipping at DE. So, a trade that brings back additional starters.

Unfortunately, in securing the value of the trade, the guy that I really wanted -- Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen -- went at #40. Ugh. So...

Bears Trade #41 to Buffalo for #61, #62, and #130

I don't like this trade at all. But so it goes. No more pick trades now; this roster needs players!

#54: Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen

Huh? I just finished explaining why I didn't draft Umanmielen at #39. At #54 though? Yes please! Because of this pick...

Bears Trade DE Darrell Taylor to Seattle for #183

PFF's algorithm would've netted a much better return, but I find that unrealistic. So, instead, I traded back for the pick that the Bears sent Seattle for Taylor in the first place. That seems fair enough.

While we're dealing players from the roster, there's one guy that needs a fresh start...

Bears Trade CB Tyrique Stevenson to Los Angeles Rams for #87

Stevenson's Bears tenure ended on the infamous Hail Mary against Washington. This recoups decent value for him given that he's a reasonably productive corner when he isn't being a doofus.

#61: Texas CB Jahdae Barron

Barron is the modern NFL corner: supremely confident, aggressive, and with his hands on the ball all the time. He slides right into Stevenson's role for the new regime.

#62: Kentucky DT Deone Walker

There are four 2nd round DTs I like: Texas' Alfred Collins, Walker, Nolen, and Tennessee's Omar Norman-Lott. I like them in that order relative to their expected draft slot. Collins is really interesting...but I just missed out on him. So, Walker it is. He's not particularly good, yet, but he is 6'6", 345 lbs. How do you let that go?

#73: Iowa S Sebastian Castro

Castro is far from my favorite S and he lacks prototype size and athleticism. He is productive, however, and he should be able to play early. There's value in that, especially if Brisker is unable to return. Penn State's Kevin Winston Jr. almost made it here; that would've been awesome.

#86: Ohio State G Donovan Jackson

Jackson looks like a G to many folks, but some still see him as a LT. Who cares? He's a good OL who can come play for the Bears!

#87: Georgia G Tate Ratledge

OK, bear with me. You're probably looking at Jackson and Ratledge going back-to-back after the spending spree that netted Trey Smith and thinking "Rob, you know that you only play two Gs at a time, right???" And that's fair. So here's my thinking: this means that (i) Amegadjie develops at OT instead of G, (ii) Jackson and Ratledge both get time to develop, and, most notably, (iii) this is a bet that Ratledge (or perhaps Jackson) can become the heir apparent to Shelton at C. Ratledge has the demeanor to immediately become the centerpiece of the revamped OL. Get him in the building and figure it out.

Bears Trade #123 to Kansas City for #133 and a 2026 5th

OK.

#130: Kansas RB Devin Neal

Neal is a nice fit for what D'Andre Swift does: catch passes and juke. Cool.

#133: Oklahoma LB Danny Stutsman

I don't know if Stutsman is good, but he's big and could plausibly step into Tremaine Edmunds' shoes when he departs, likely after 2025.

#145: Oregon WR Evan Stewart

Whew. This is tricky. Stewart is a great college player, but it seems unlikely that he'll survive in the NFL. He is extremely slight and gets easily blown off of his routes. However, he tends to get open and creates plenty of separation; if he's open, who cares that he doesn't break tackles?

#183: Iowa TE Luke Lachey

Lachey wasn't good this year. But he's an Iowa TE who is available here. Duh.

#199: Iowa S Xavier Nwankpa

Yes, a third Hawkeye and a second Hawkeye S! I love Nwankpa; I like him the best of these three options. He doesn't run that well, but he's good at football.

#228: Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton

PFF hates Singleton. I don't get it. He looks like an NFL starter to me. But I expect him to return to Penn State next year, so this isn't the most relevant pick. Michigan's Kalel Mullings was also available and he'd do nicely here, too.

My last mock went unreasonably well. This one, on the other hand, was a complicated mess. It's not bad, per se, but there's an outrageous amount of complication here.

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Devin Neal, Nicholas Singleton

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Luke Lachey

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Evan Stewart, Tyler Scott, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Kiran Amegadjie

OG (3): Trey Smith, Kevin Zeitler, Donovan Jackson

C (2): Coleman Shelton, Tate Ratledge

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Abdul Carter, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Princely Umanmielen

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Milton Williams, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, Deone Walker

ILB (2): Tremaine Edmunds, Danny Stutsman

OLB (3): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Jahdae Barron, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Tre'Von Moehrig, Sebastian Castro, Xavier Nwankpa

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR depth chart isn't good; an injury to Moore or Odunze really scuttles the room. The RB room is fine. There are a lot of players who need to develop. Mostly notably, this is way too many picks!

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball. And the draft gets to be a true "Bears Draft" as it features five straight defensive players to start before throwing the QB a bone (he got some help via free agency, too).

This is not my favorite mock. I nailed my first goal with Carter, but whiffed on #2 -- there's no plausible LT added to this roster, so the pressure remains on Jones and Amegadjie. But it'd be good enough.

Chicago Bears 2025 Mock Offseason: Thanksgiving Week Edition

As the Bears prepare to head to Detroit so the Lions can cook them for Thanksgiving dinner on Thursday, it's time for another look at what this winter and spring could have in store for the Bears. I've delved deeply into roster decisions, salary cap forecasting, and free agency prospecting in numerous mock offseasons, like the most recent one here. The quick and dirty summary:

1. The Bears will cut G Nate Davis (already gone!), TE Gerald Everett, and S Jonathan Owens. This will utilize just $3.375M of dead cap space.
2. The GM -- whether Ryan Poles or his replacement -- will need to decide whether to allocate $4M of cap space to G Ryan Bates, who will hopefully be penciled into a reserve role. Bates has no guarantees left.
3. Free agency offers numerous attractive starting options on the OL and at DE; it does not offer the same opportunities at DT.
4. The Bears will head into 2025 with a new coach. Here's hoping he's better than the last four.

Free Agency

The Bears figure to have about $66.2M of cap space to utilize in signing players after keeping $20M of their $86.2M dry for signing draft picks and making in-season moves. Because they will likely let injury-prone LG Teven Jenkins walk, they'll be looking for a couple of starters on the interior offensive line along with help on the defensive front. Given the troubling concussion issues that have appeared for S Jaquan Brisker, a S may be on the menu, too.

1. Sign OG Trey Smith to a 4-year, $88M deal with $65M guaranteed. Break the bank for the best player at a position of need. This isn't complicated.
2. Sign DE Josh Sweat to a 2-year, $28M deal with $15M guaranteed. DeMarcus Walker has turned into a decent DE2 who offers nice value on his current deal, but he's nice the pass rusher that a guy like Sweat is. The defense needs an infusion up front. Actually, Walker is such decent value that...
3. Trade DE DeMarcus Walker to Miami for #98 overall. After signing Sweat, retaining Taylor (below), and moving into year two with Booker, converting Walker into draft capital makes a whole lot of sense.
4. Sign WR Diontae Johnson to a 2-year, $24M deal with $10M guaranteed. This probably still seems a bit heavy for Johnson given how disastrous his stay in Baltimore has been thus far, but it protects the Bears against a scenario where they don't find a good third option in the draft.
5. Sign C Coleman Shelton to a 2-year, $10M deal with $5M guaranteed. I'm not sure exactly where Shelton's market is at the moment, and he's already 29. However, after a truly dreadful September, he has changed the story at the pivot in Chicago. While I've previously hunted for Drew Dalman here, I can see the value in keeping Shelton given his continuity and modest expected price tag.
6. Sign DE Darrell Taylor to a 2-year, $8M deal with $4M guaranteed. Taylor has been a solid addition who isn't good enough to command even a low-level starting gig in free agency.
7. Sign TE Austin Hooper to a 1-year, $3M deal. I do this one every team. That TE2 spot has been a disaster for years and, unfortunately, Gerald Everett has been a massive flop.

The above spending utilizes about $55M of net cap space, so this leaves a big chunk of dry powder in case extensions are advisable, especially for LT Braxton Jones and CB Kyler Gordon.

NFL Draft

As I always do, I completed all of the above moves prior to running a mock draft on PFF. I only made one edit to PFF's draft tool and it's a big one: the draft order. While the Bears are currently slated to pick 12th based on the standings, they're headed for no better than 7-10 this year. The best 7-10 team picked at #11 in last year's draft, the 7-10 Bears picked 9th, and the best 6-11 team picked 7th. Given the prevalence of truly dreadful teams with records worse than Chicago's at the moment -- here's looking at you, Panthers, Giants, Raiders, Jaguars, Titans, Browns, and Patriots -- but the lack of teams projected to be just a tick worse than the Bears, I'll split the difference and put the Bears at #8.

With that in mind, here we go!

Bears Trade #8 to Los Angeles Chargers for #25, #57, #126, and a 2025 2nd round pick

The options here are tough. The top two DEs were on the board in Penn State's Abdul Carter and Texas A&M's Nic Scourton. The top five OTs were also there in LSU's Will Campbell, Texas's Kelvin Banks Jr., Ohio State's Josh Simmons, Minnesota's Aireontae Ersery (who devoured Carter yesterday), and West Virginia's Wyatt Milum. The trade-down options were enticing, but they all represented big drops. In the end, however, it came down to two options: Carter or the trade. As much as I love him, I have cold feet on Carter after watching him get swallowed up by both Ersery and Milum this year. So, the trade won the day.

#25: Minnesota OT Aireontae Ersery

I didn't want to take Ersery at #8, and I figured that meant saying goodbye to all five OTs...but that wasn't the case. At #25, this is an easy choice, even with other favorites on the board. Ersery probably doesn't start from the jump, but he offers a ceiling for this OL that is impossible to pass up. He also enables Kiran Amegadjie to kick to OG opposite Trey Smith, strengthening the interior.

Bears Trade #40 and #126 to Los Angeles Chargers for #33

I turned around and sent that 4th rounder back to the Chargers to move up to the top of the second round. With a chance to change the status quo at DT, I had to do it...

#33: Michigan DT Kenneth Grant

Grant is a unicorn: a 6'3", 340 lbs. NT who moves well enough to stay on the field in passing sets while forming the foundational anchor of a run defense. This is a no-brainer if he lasts this long. I hate trading up on principle, but sometimes it's the obvious choice.

#39: Georgia DE Mykel Williams

I was really hoping Ole Miss DE Princely Umanmielen would make it here -- he went at #36 -- but Williams is one heck of a consolation prize. Despite his twitched-up body and imposing frame at 6'5", 265 lbs., he hasn't been much of a pass rusher thus far. This is a bet on his athletic profile and age, as Williams was the #6 overall recruit in the class of 2022.

#57: Arizona OG Jonah Savaiinaea

The extra Chargers pick let me get my hands on one of my favorite players in this class. Savaiinaea will be announced as an OT, but given the makeup of this Bears roster at this point, he'll immediately kick inside and compete with Amegadjie to start. Savaiinaea is gigantic at 6'5", 336 lbs., and he spent half of his collegiate career at RG before kicking out to OT. I'm not sure if he helps the rushing attack, but I'm extremely confident that Savaiinaea helps keep the pocket clean against interior rushers for the rest of Caleb Williams' rookie deal.

#80: Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.

This is getting silly. With all due respect to Michigan TE Colston Loveland, Fannin is the only TE I've seen this year that made me wonder whether Tyler Warren was the best TE in the country. Fannin's frame is slight, especially for an NFL TE, but he absolutely embarrassed both Texas A&M and Penn State defenders (13 grabs for 281 yards and a pair of scores) in his premier opportunities. There will be a lot of discussion about what Fannin can't do as the draft approaches...but at #80 overall, focus instead on what he can do. Is this an overreaction to Gerald Everett? No. It might be a reaction to Everett, but Fannin is just that good.

Bears Trade #98, #182, and #187 to Arizona for #85

Again, my good luck continues, so I trade up twice for the first time in...maybe ever? It's an easy choice, because...

#85: South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori

Have you ever wondered what it would be like if former Notre Dame and current Ravens S Kyle Hamilton was somehow even faster...but also much worse at football coming out of college? Meet Nick Emmanwori! I don't think he'll make it out of the 2nd round and he could sneak into the 1st round, so nabbing him here is the easiest choice in the whole draft.

#153: Illinois WR Pat Bryant

Bryant is a really nice get here. He's been very productive, has good size, and brings enough athleticism to the table. 

To be perfectly honest, the draft went unreasonably well. Between the initial Chargers trade and getting Ersery-Grant-Williams in the same class, this is beyond a dream scenario. Here's the roster at the end:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT

RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Harold Fannin Jr.

WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Scott, Pat Bryant, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Braxton Jones, Darnell Wright, Aireontae Ersery

OG (3): Trey Smith, Kiran Amegadjie, Jonah Savaiinaea

C (2): Coleman Shelton, Ryan Bates

DE (5): Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, Mykel Williams, Austin Booker, Darrell Taylor

DT (5): Gervon Dexter, Kenneth Grant, Andrew Billings, Zacch Pickens, FREE AGENT

ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds

OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, FREE AGENT

S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Nick Emmanwori, Elijah Hicks, FREE AGENT

SP (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

Here's my evidence that this was legitimately run through PFF's simulator:

(PFF incorrectly lists the Bears as holding the Rams' 5th rounder -- I'm not sure why, so I always send it back to LA)

As is always the case, this isn't a perfect roster. The WR depth chart isn't terribly deep. The RB room is halfway empty! There is no succession plan at LB. The CB group lacks a compelling option if Tyrique Stevenson can't bounce back from his Hail Mary gaffe in Washington, something he is yet to do. And there's no viable reserve 3T at the moment unless something wild happens with Pickens.

Despite all of that, this is a team that is dramatically better in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and Caleb Williams gets a new explosive toy in Fannin.

This is my favorite mock offseason thus far by a mile.

The Nail Is In the Matt Eberflus Coffin, But Outside of the Eberflus Family, Who Cares?

As my brother and I sat in Soldier Field last Sunday with the Bears' season on life support, something amazing happened: facing a 3rd and 19, budding star rookie QB Caleb Williams ad-libbed a 16-yard dart to WR Rome Odunze to set up a very manageable 4th and 3, which Williams then converted with another gorgeous throw to Odunze. One easy out to Keenan Allen later and Williams had done the unthinkable: he led a comeback against the unsurmountable force that is the Green Bay Packers, formerly the club's biggest rival. I turned to my brother, wrapped my arm around him, and told him that there was a world where this is the beginning of a wild turn in the Matt Eberflus story. Alas, it was not to be...

...but not all is lost, Bears fans! In fact, the Bears are finally in an idyllic spot with their quarterback and, just as importantly, their failure of a head coach has finally failed enough that there's no plausible way to keep him. While it was fairly obvious to numerous Bears fans that Flus should've been fired last January, there's no longer a decision to be made this January: Flus will be gone, uncoupling Williams from his floundering coach. In fact, if the Bears were a more competent organization, Flus wouldn't make it home from Detroit on Thursday afternoon. But the Halas/McCaskey family has never fired a coach during a season; it's hard to have hope that they'll start now.

The reason for keeping Flus appears to be continuity, though I struggle to see the value in continuing to fail. The reasons to fire Flus are...well, they're too voluminous to list. A few that jump out:

1. Flus hired Shane Waldron as OC. I liked the Waldron hiring seeing what I could see from the outside, but his tenure was an unmitigated disaster that got him fired two weeks. Only two NFL OCs have been fired this year: Waldron and Luke Getsy, the other OC hired by Eberflus. Good grief. Through two weeks of OC Thomas Brown, the offense in general and Williams specifically look dramatically better.
2. Flus is wildly conservative despite routinely coaching as an underdog. This was clearest last week when Flus decided to sit on the ball with 30+ seconds remaining in order to try a 46-yard field goal...in Chicago...in November...with a kicker who always kicks low line drives. It was an unforgiveable error that speaks to Flus' illogical conservatism and general approach to make decisions governed by fear of what could go wrong instead of confidence about what could go right. Add it all up and he's 5-18 in one-score games. No other current NFL head coach is under .400, but Flus is coming in strong at .217.
3. The team quit after the Washington Hail Mary. The Arizona game that followed was embarrassing. More on that below.
4. The most damning issue, even worse than those listed above: the Matt Eberflus defense stinks. There are two key injuries with budding star (and personal favorite) S Jaquan Brisker and NT Andrew Billings both presumably out for the season, but the unit is still about as healthy as an NFL defense can be at midseason. This is Flus's third season at the helm with incredible resources poured into that side of the ball. The results?
1. After forcing a pair of punts from the Cardinals to start that game, the Bears allowed three touchdown drives in the last 16 minutes of the first half to let that game get out of hand.
2. Needing to right the ship the following week back at home against the woeful Patriots, the defense allowed five scoring drives -- admittedly only one that reached the endzone -- in a game where the offense no-showed. That marked just the second time in 33 games since Thanksgiving 2022 that the New England offense generated five scores.
3. On life support the following week against the dreaded Packers, Thomas Brown's offense enjoyed a successful day of ball control, and the Flus defense responded by shutting down Green Bay once...and allowing the Packers to reach at least the Chicago 5 on their five other possessions.
4. That brings us to today, where Minnesota doubled Green Bay's output with 12 possessions. Minnesota only reached the 5 or farther four times. That's huge improvement, right? Technically, sure, but that overlooks the following possessions:
1. A field goal drive that reached the 8.
2. A field goal drive that reached the 7.
3. A field goal drive that reached the 9.
4. Two other possessions that crossed midfield.

The pass rush is non-existent, yet Flus refuses to send numbers in key spots. The results are as expected.

It seems that the defensive shortcomings started to weigh on Williams, especially in dreadful showings against Arizona and New England. It's part of what makes his explosive outings against Green Bay and Minnesota since so much more impressive.

Also speaking to the incredible nature of Williams' explosion? The complete lack of a rushing attack to take some weight off of his shoulders.

I'm surrounded by Lions fans who get to enjoy the NFL's best offensive line with a pair of plus backs. They'd probably lose their lunch if their running backs turned in these four consecutive games as has been the case for D'Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson (keep in mind that this includes a 39-yard touchdown from Swift against Green Bay):

1. 19 carries for 64 yards @ Arizona
2. 17 carries for 55 yards v. New England
3. 24 carries for 104 yards v. Green Bay
4. 15 carries for 32 yards v. Minnesota

The total tally is alarming: 75 rushes for just 255 yards. That's 3.4 yards per carry. Yuck. Williams himself is masking the dereliction of duty from the rushing attack by contributing big rushing totals himself:

1. 4 carries for 5 yards @ Arizona
2. 2 carries for 15 yards v. New England
3. 9 carries for 70 yards v. Green Bay
4. 6 carries for 33 yards v. Minnesota

Williams has added 123 yards on 21 carries, nearly half as many yards as Swift+Johnson despite the backs having 3.5x attempts. Yuck yuck yuck.

Back before the season started, I worried most about the Bears improving just a little -- to something like 8-9 or even 9-8 -- without being good. It would ensure that the club stayed in the Flus-infused purgatory for at least another year, wasting another year on the Williams rookie contract. That ship has sailed. Flus is toast. Williams is now thriving without his albatross of a coach holding him down.

While I'd still love to see management put on their big-boy pants and jettison Flus before the season is over, I'm confident that Williams can survive six more games with his overmatched head coach. The continued failure of the head man should even give GM Ryan Poles -- or, possibly, his replacement -- yet another top-10 draft pick with which to add to the roster. While there are significant needs to address before the 2025 season begins, especially in the interior of the offensive line and along the defensive front, the Bears have sufficient assets to put toward the roster to make this an eminently enticing opportunity for the 2025 head coach.

That 2025 head coach will not be Matt Eberflus. And outside of the emergence of Caleb Williams as a budding star, that's the best thing that could come out of the 2024 season at this point. For a team that struggles to get wins on the field, Bears fans will have to settle for this "win" instead. For now, anyway.

Could 2024 Finally Be the Year that Penn State Beats Ohio State Again?

Could this finally be the year? 2016 was amazing, but it was also a very long time ago. Coach James Franklin -- affectionately referred to in these parts as "JFF," a very well-earned moniker -- has struggled mightily to get over the hump and actually beat OSU since that magical year. But his teams continue to play OSU tough. In fact, here's a look at his performances against OSU over the years:

• 2014
• Spread: PSU +14
• Result: Loss 31-24 in 2OT
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 17-17 tie.
• 2015
• Spread: PSU +17 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 38-10
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. 21-10 OSU to start Q4.
• 2016
• Spread: PSU +20
• Result: WIN 24-21
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes.
• 2017
• Spread: PSU +7 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 39-38
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 35-20 with 12 minutes left. Win expectancy % peaked at 97.2%.
• 2018
• Spread: PSU +3.5
• Result: Loss 27-26
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 26-14 with 8 minutes left. WE% peaked at 96.1%.
• 2019
• Spread: PSU +19.5 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 28-17
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. 21-17 OSU to start Q4.
• 2020 (whatever that was)
• Spread: PSU +10.5
• Result: Loss 38-25
• 4th Quarter Lead? No. Closest point was 31-19 OSU early Q4.
• 2021
• Spread: PSU +17.5 @ OSU
• Result: Loss 33-24
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 27-24 OSU with 10 minutes left.
• 2022
• Spread: PSU +15.5
• Result: Loss 44-31
• 4th Quarter Lead? Yes. 21-16 PSU with 10 minutes left.
• 2023
• Spread: PSU +4.5
• Result: Loss 20-12
• 4th Quarter Lead? No...but 13-6 OSU mid-4th.
• 2024
• Spread: PSU +3.5
• Result:
• 4th Quarter Lead?

Franklin's teams have been consistently competitive. Over 10 games -- and we're counting the COVID game here, though I'm not sure we should -- Penn State has one win, two other games with two-score fourth quarter leads, another game with a one-score fourth quarter lead, another game that went to double overtime, three other games where PSU was within one score in the final 10 minutes, and two others where PSU was within two scores in the fourth quarter. Given that decade of situations, Penn State's 1-9 record is remarkable, unfortunately for the wrong reasons.

I start with this history because, unfortunately, it matters. JFF carries this baggage with him into Saturday's game.

Turning to the rosters, I understand why Ohio State is favored. While Will Howard is a huge step down when compared to other recent OSU QBs, he's plenty competent, and he'll throw the ball around at Beaver Stadium to an outrageously talented group of WRs led by freshman savant Jeremiah Smith,  Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate. Egbuka still projects as a first-round pick and is likely the third best player in that group. Absurd. Penn State's defensive backfield is strong and has played well this year, but AJ Harris has struggled a bit recently and the absence of KJ Winston is rearing its head. On the other side of the ball, OSU's defensive backfield, led by CB Denzel Burke, S Caleb Downs, S Sonny Styles, and S Lathan Ransom, figures to make life extremely difficult on Penn State's average group of receivers. While Trey Wallace and Liam Clifford have proved to be reasonably productive this year, it's hard to see them creating significant plays against this defense.

Taken together, Penn State's path to victory appears to be on the ground, on both sides of the ball. Penn State appeared to have a good chance for a productive day of running the football if the team was at full strength. Unfortunately, that isn't the case. RT Anthony Donkoh -- Penn State's best offensive lineman earlier this year -- is trying to play through shoulder and knee injuries, and it shows. While the rest of the PSU OL has performed well in its run blocking, the dropoff from a healthy Donkoh to either (i) a hobbled Donkoh, or (ii) Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci, is absolutely massive. Against some teams, Penn State can scheme around the shortcomings. Against DE JT Tuimoloau, DE Jack Sawyer, and DT Tyleik Williams, a trio of experienced defenders headed to the NFL this offseason via top-100 picks, Penn State needs to be in top form. Adding Beau Pribula as a running threat may help, but that comes with a rather obvious cost to Penn State's downfield passing attack. Still, it's plausible that Pribula's running ability is necessary to combat the incredible strength of the Ohio State defense at all levels.

Fortunately, we may encounter a very strange situation involving Ohio State's offensive line: it is horribly banged up and underperforming. G Donovan Jackson is playing OK. LT Josh Simmons was having a nice season and projects as a good pro...but he suffered a knee injury against Oregon and is out for the year. His backup, Zen Michalski, was carted off the field following a terrible showing against Nebraska. Either a hobbled Michalski or a third-string LT figures to take the field in State College. This offers an opportunity for Penn State. Ohio State has rushed the ball 30+ times in every game this year, so there may not be a tremendous number of true pass rush opportunities. However, if Penn State can require OSU to allocate two blockers to DE Abdul Carter on each pass rushing snap, opportunities should abound elsewhere on the line. DT Zane Durant figures to have the opportunity to blow up the game from the inside. If PSU can successfully limit the OSU rushing attack and pressure Howard on passing plays, the Nittany Lions will have a shot. If OSU's line holds up and gives Howard a chance to distribute the ball to his pass catchers, Franklin figures to drop to 1-10 against the Buckeyes.

Given the makeup of these rosters, I'd love to see Penn State negate Ohio State's defensive backs by pulling them off the field entirely. Play bully ball. Put three tight ends on the field with a couple of running backs and a running QB. This plan took a huge hit when TE2/3 Andrew Rappleyea suffered a season-ending knee injury; as good as Luke Reynolds has looked in the TE3 role, could he really handle 50 snaps against OSU? Yikes. Still, I'm expecting to see a tremendous amount of TE2 Khalil Dinkins on the field on Saturday, to say nothing of the barrage of touches that will surely be funneled toward national TE1 Tyler Warren.

I've made it this far without directly addressing the elephant in the room: Penn State's QB situation. Former 5* QB and Ohio native Drew Allar has looked dramatically better this year, raising the offense's ceiling from last season. Unfortunately, Allar suffered what appears to be a knee injury against Wisconsin. If he plays, he'll surely be limited in his mobility and likely be unable to escape the pocket when necessary. I'm deeply concerned that this iteration of the Penn State offensive line -- with Donkoh's injury -- won't have an advantage over Ohio State's front; thus, the legs of Beau Pribula could be necessary for Penn State's offense to function. I don't love the idea of Pribula making his first start against the Buckeyes, but given the circumstances, this is probably the best of two bad choices.

As we near the end, we get to special teams. Starting Penn State PR Kaden Saunders remains out with a foot injury and reserve Zion Tracy is yet to make a difference in the return game. P Riley Thompson has been solid, though not quite as solid as last year. Most notably, K Ryan Barker appears to have stabilized the placekicking game following his walkoff field goal against USC. Given the tight nature of so many PSU-OSU contests, the kicking game could loom large.

Finally, we loop back to the coaches. Ryan Day is developing a reputation as something of a James Franklin 2.0, a coach who dominates just about every opponent...except for the elite teams on the schedule, where he finds a way to lose. Day's team suffered a fatal brain fart in Eugene, but otherwise looks very strong. And for all of Day's struggles relative to OSU expectations, he has not struggled to beat Penn State.

So, again I ask: could this finally be the year? Sadly, I don't think so. Penn State has the talent to play with Ohio State and turn this game into a coin flip, but Ohio State's receiving talent will be impossible to stifle. There's a strange narrative emanating that Ohio State struggles to run the ball. Yes, they struggled to run the ball against Nebraska, but TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins combined for 110 yards on 21 carries against Oregon, 139 yards on 24 carries against Iowa, and 123 yards on just 18 carries against Michigan State. While Penn State's run defense is arguably better than those squads, OSU should still be able to run with some success.

The Penn State defense has suffocated opposing offenses in the second half of games, particularly in the third quarter, but they have sluffed through many first halves. If Penn State holds Ohio State to 10 points or less in the second half, though could be enough to win...but it won't be enough to win if the defense surrenders three touchdowns in the first half. I think that happens on Saturday, complete with the added concern that a hobbled Allar or first-time starting Pribula seems primed for a turnover or two that gifts the Buckeyes offense with a short field. I do think that Penn State will move the ball against Ohio State significantly more than last year, regardless of who plays QB. But if Penn State reaches halftime down something like 21-10, the offense will be forced to press the OSU secondary...and that's a recipe for disappointment.

OSU 31

PSU 20

Chicago Bears 2025 Mock Offseason: Post-Hail Mary Depression Edition

I ran a whole bunch of mock offseasons over the past couple of years. I generally tried to wait until the Bears were out of contention. Unfortunately, that time has likely come, despite the current 4-3 record. Matt Eberflus has lost seven road games in each of his two seasons at the helm. Here is the remaining road schedule for the Bears:

• Nov. 3 @ Arizona
• Nov. 28 @ Detroit
• Dec. 8 @ San Francisco
• Dec. 16 @ Minnesota
• Jan. 5 @ Green Bay

In order to avoid seven losses again, the Bears would need to find multiple wins against that slate. They'll be underdogs in every one of those games, and Flus is 3-17 on the road as a head coach.

This season is now exclusively about developing Caleb Williams and the young core around him.

Internal Decisions
Far and away, the most important internal decision is what to do with Flus. My thoughts on the matter have been clear for some time. Flus needs to go. If the Bears go 7-10 or worse in 2024, he surely will. Here's hoping he's gone.

Moving to the roster, there are a few easy choices. G Nate Davis is gone, leaving $2M of dead cap space behind. 

There are some tougher choices. ILB Tremaine Edmunds has generally disappointed, but it's very difficult to find an ILB with his body to roam the middle of this defense; plus, cutting him only yields $4.3M of net cap space. He most likely sticks. S Kevin Byard has been very impressive, but cutting him only leaves $1.5M of dead space; still, he should come back unless he trails off. TE Gerald Everett has been a huge disappointment; with only $1M of dead space against $6.5M of cap space if he says, I think Everett is gone. DE DeMarcus Walker's cap hit drops under $6M but he leaves only $667K of dead space if cut. That was an easy choice last year, but he has been much more impressive this year, especially when sliding inside on pass rushing downs. He's not a winning team's DE2, but he's a great DE3 and a good DT2 on 3rd down. He stays. G Ryan Bates and his $4M cap hit stays, assuming his injury isn't a long-term one. S Jonathan Owens has only played 12 defensive snaps through seven games, despite injuries in the secondary. He's gone, leaving $375K of dead cap space behind him.

Lower on the cap table, some recent draftees find themselves in dicey situations, including WR Tyler Scott, DE Dominique Robinson, LB Noah Sewell, and even DT Zacch Pickens. I won't cut any of them for purposes of this exercise, but things look bad for Scott and Robinson in particular.

It seems likely that the Bears let G Teven Jenkins walk in free agency; he was drafted by the Ryan Pace regime, he hasn't ever been able to stay healthy, and his play peaked during his sophomore year. But I hope he stays; I love watching Teven.

The cuts above yield the following dead hits:

• G Nate Davis: $2M
• TE Gerald Everett: $1M
• S Jonathan Owens: $0.375M

With an adjusted cap of $280,261,771 and after allocating (i) $3,760,228 to dead money, (ii) $4M to the practice squad, (iii) holding back $10M to account for draft cap hits over the minimum, (iv) holding back $10M for in-season cap space, and (iv) accounting for $186,287,801 of current contracts outside of those described above, the Bears would enter free agency with approximately $66.214M of salary cap space before their forays into free agency and the draft.

Free Agency
The Bears have two massive needs in free agency with two additional target areas listed in order of my preference:

1. Interior Offensive Line. After terrible play at the pivot for years, Coleman Shelton has been surprisingly decent after a dreadful start. Nevertheless, the Bears need an influx of talent in the interior, whether at G or C, and likely both through the draft and free agency. They could even consider signing at new LT and kicking Braxton Jones inside to G. Names to consider:
1. iOL: G Trey Smith, C Drew Dalman, G Teven Jenkins, C Ryan Kelly, G Will Fries, G Aaron Banks, C Connor Williams, C Coleman Shelton, G James Daniels, G Kevin Zeitler
2. OT: Ronnie Stanley, Garrett Bolles, Cam Robinson, Morgan Moses, Trent Brown, Alaric Jackson
2. Defensive Line. The Bears need another impact player up front. It's probably better coming at DE, though a 1-tech or 3-tech DT could work, too, with some roster shenanigans.
1. DTs: Calais Campbell, Milton Williams, B.J. Hill, Osa Odighizuwa
2. DEs: Haason Reddick, Khalil Mack, Malcolm Koonce, Chase Young, Matthew Judon, Josh Sweat, Brandon Graham, Josh Uche, Derek Barnett
3. #2/#3 Wide Receiver. Keenan Allen doesn't seem like a long-term fit, though he has been solid. Adding another piece to pair with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze would be prudent.
1. Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Amari Cooper, Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins, Darius Slayton
4. Tight End #2. Gerald Everett just hasn't delivered. A complementary piece to Cole Kmet would be so helpful.
1. Mike Gesicki, Juwan Johnson, Tyler Conklin, Tommy Tremble, Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper

The Bears have largely eschewed playing at the top of the market, save for keeping CB Jaylon Johnson last year. This year, I think that changes. Ryan Poles has largely tried to fix the interior offensive line by tinkering, spending in middle class free agency for G Nate Davis, C Lucas Patrick, and C Coleman Shelton, and swinging a modest deal for G/C Ryan Bates. No more.

These contract projections are my own as PFF doesn't have any yet:

• Sign RG Trey Smith (4/$84M, $46M guaranteed)
• The top of the iOL market exploded recently. This is the cost of doing business there.
• Sign C Drew Dalman (4/$58M, $34M guaranteed).
• Poles could consider staying at lower class free agency with Shelton; he has admittedly played reasonably well in the last month and would surely benefit from a infusion of talent next to him. But Dalman represents the biggest swing possible for Caleb Williams.
• Sign WR Diontae Johnson (3/$42M with $25M guaranteed)
• Sign TE Austin Hooper (1/$3M)
• Re-Sign OLB Jack Sanborn (2/$4M, $2M guaranteed)
• Re-Sign DT Chris Williams (RFA tender of 1/$1.5M)
• Re-Sign C Doug Kramer (ERFA tender of 1/$1M)

The most important goals this offseason are (i) adding significant talent to the offensive line, and (ii) solving the C spot, whether via continuity or new talent. Smith and Dalman represent the tippy top of the iOL market.

I not extremely confident that Poles will take multiple dips into the deep end given that the Bears finally have homegrown talent to keep in the form of CB Kyler Gordon, S Jaquan Brisker, and LT Braxton Jones. Those extensions could utilize a chunk of 2025 cap space. But even this spending spree doesn't create a cap crunch. The time is right for big forays before meaningful extensions are required.

Based purely on AAVs, the above spending spree would utilize $57M of cap space before accounting for lower first-year cap hits. This should leave plenty for the draft class and the aforementioned extensions, even with possible draft trades.

Draft
This mock requires some assumptions. Namely, the the Pittsburgh pick for the Justin Fields pick is the Steelers' 4th, not 6th. As of now, Fields has played well more than 51% of the Pittsburgh snaps thus far, but with Russell Wilson now running the show, this is probably a toss up, with the result depending on Wilson's health status.

The Bears have their own picks in the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th rounds, an extra 2nd from Carolina, the aforementioned Pittsburgh 4th, and a 7th from Cleveland from the Chris Williams trade. This mock was completed using the Pro Football Focus mock draft tool.

The draft class impacted my thoughts on free agency. The OL class is fine; the DE class is fantastic, so spending on the OL was more palatable than spending on DE.

#18: Penn State DE Abdul Carter
A dream scenario. Carter is a Swiss Army knife on defense given his extensive experience at DE and OLB, and his measurables are nearly identical to former Nittany Lion Micah Parsons. Adding Carter at DE gives the Bears a wave of pass rushers to employ throughout games.

#33: Penn State S Kevin Winston Jr.
I wanted to trade this pick and had some attractive offers to do so...but Winston is far too attractive to pass on here. He's a great addition to the 2025 roster, and he won't be forced into a starting role in his return from a missed year in 2024. The ceiling her is substantial as evidenced by Winston's superb 2023 season.

My other top consideration here was West Virginia LT Wyatt Milum, who came off the board at #34. Surely I'll take an OL at #50, right?

Bears trade #50 and a 2026 6th to Seattle for #80 and a 2025 2nd

This is my favorite type of trade, and the Bears have routinely been on the wrong side of it. Trade this year's 2nd for next year's 2nd and the benefit is that you turn next year's 6th into a mid-3rd this year? Yes please!

#80: USC C Jonah Monheim

Monheim's transition to C hasn't been the smoothest, but he was solid at LT in 2023 and superb splitting 2022 between RG and RT. He's an ideal backup OL who projects as a starting C.

#82: Penn State TE Tyler Warren

I know it looks like I'm an outrageous Penn State homer at this point, but I promise, this is just how the board broke. I do a couple of these each day and end up with about 0.5 Nittany Lions on average, hardly outrageous given the quality fit of their top players with these Bears.

Warren is a perfect fit in the NFL. I'll be floored if he's available here. If he is, it's a no brainer. If he's not, look for Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.

#126: South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori

What if Kyle Hamilton ran a 4.4 instead of a 4.6?

Emmanwori definitely isn't on Hamilton's level of production and his pedigree isn't close. But the starter kit is here. And at #126, it's worth the shot.

#154: Kansas RB Devin Neal

Neal isn't an exceptional athlete, lacks exceptional size, and played in the Big 12, which makes me inherently skeptical of him. But he's plenty productive, athletic enough, and comes with significant experience as a pass catcher, something that is lacking with Roschon Johnson.

#222: UNLV CB Tony Grimes

Grimes had a great pedigree coming out of high school, but the 5* prospect's journey has been quite the twisting path, playing 36 games at North Carolina, transferring to Texas A&M but never playing due to injury, and ending up at UNLV for his final year. His tackling is terrible. This is a bet that a couple of years in one system would help him improve.

Looking to 2025, the Bears would hold the following picks:

1st (CHI)
2nd (SEA)
2nd (CHI)
3rd (CHI)
4th (CHI)
5th (CHI)

7th (CHI)

A Note on the Mock

Every other mock I've run includes drafting at least two offensive linemen. This is the first time I haven't done that in weeks...but that's because I have the benefit of knowing that both Smith and Dalman are aboard. If free agency only yields one impact starter on the OL, I'd say goodbye to Emmanwori or even Warren in favor of another OL.

Final Roster
New players added via free agency are underlined. Draftees are bolded. Here's the 53:

QB (3): Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, FREE AGENT
RB (4): D'Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Devin Neal, FREE AGENT
TE (3): Cole Kmet, Austin Hooper, Tyler Warren
WR (6): D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Scott, FREE AGENT, FREE AGENT

OT (3): Darnell Wright, Braxton Jones, FREE AGENT
OG (3): Trey Smith, Kiran Amegadjie, Ryan Bates
C    (3): Drew Dalman, Jonah Monheim, Doug Kramer

DE (5): Montez Sweat, DeMarcus Walker, Austin Booker, Abdul Carter, Dominique Robinson
DT (5): Andrew Billings, Gervon Dexter Jr., Zacch Pickens, Chris Williams, FREE AGENT
ILB (1): Tremaine Edmunds
OLB (4): T.J. Edwards, Jack Sanborn, Noah Sewell, FREE AGENT
CB (5): Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, Kyler Gordon, Tony Grimes
S (5): Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, Kevin Winston Jr., Elijah Hicks, Nick Emmanwori

ST (3): Cairo Santos, Tory Taylor, FREE AGENT

This roster isn't perfect, but it's awfully damn good. The pass rush is hugely improved with Booker and Carter added to complement Sweat, especially given that they enable Walker to kick inside and improve the DT pass rush, too. Adding Warren and Johnson as receiving options ensures the Williams has plenty of receiving options available to him.

Most importantly, the offensive line looks absolutely fantastic. The tackle depth chart is encouraging with Jones at LT, Wright at RT, Amegadjie as the top OT backup, and Monheim as a second OT backup with recent experience out wide; heck, even Bates was a LT at Penn State. Inside, going Amegadjie-Dalman-Smith left to right is darn exciting with Bates and Monheim as quality backups.

The WR depth chart is a little scary, but the allocation of assets into the top three is massive.

Any new coach should be ecstatic to step into this situation!

Chicago Bears 2024 Season Preview and NFL Predictions

College football is underway. It's really fall. But it's not really fall until the Bears take the field. That will happen on Sunday afternoon when the Bears host the Titans to kick off the Caleb Williams era. In advance of Sunday's contest, here's a look at the 2024 Bears with NFL picks to follow.

Coaching

Woof. Whereas Penn State boss James Franklin has done a stellar job hiring staffs over his decade at the helm, the same cannot be said for Matt Eberflus during his tenure as Bears head coach. Of the 19 members of Eberflus' initial on-field coaching staff in 2022, only seven remain in his third season (TE coach Jim Dray, OL coach Chris Morgan, DL coach Travis Smith, LB coach Dave Borgonzi, safeties coach Andre Curtis, special teams coordinator Richard Hightower, and assistant special teams coordinator Carlos Polk). Notably, none of the coaches who left did so for a promotion, and multiple coaches from the 2023 staff left the building with law enforcement involved (defensive coordinator Alan Williams and RB coach David Walker).

Eberflus has never come across as a particularly inspiring leader. Instead, he leaves most Bears fans saying "meh" when he speaks. His showing on "Hard Knocks" did him no favors in my eyes. It was especially striking how regularly Eberflus himself seemed to be a step behind new QB Caleb Williams.

Thankfully, as Franklin himself has shown over the years, hiring a good staff can cover up many of the sins of the head coach, and there's reason to think that Eberflus has significantly upgraded his coordinator positions, albeit because the floor established by DC Williams and OC Luke Getsy was dumbfoundingly low. In particular, new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron found himself in need of a new job through no fault of his own; his Seattle offenses were productive, but the end of Pete Carroll's tenure with the Seahawks meant a sea change for that organization. There's good reason for hope with Waldron running the offense. New defensive coordinator Eric Washington doesn't have the same success at the NFL level, but he does have extensive experience as a DL coach and two years of coordinator experience with Carolina. There's enough to like here, especially considering that the retained position coaches on defense have largely overseen vast improvements within their units.

In the end, I think Eberflus is a net negative as the head man, a coach more likely to cost his team a game over the course of a season than to steal one. I desperately hope that he proves me wrong.

Offense

Oh boy. This is fun. Instead of me dreaming on a leap from Justin Fields, the Bears now have a #1 overall pick at QB and one with an elite pedigree to boot. Caleb Williams was an ultra-elite recruit coming out of Gonzaga High in DC, then a freshman superstar at Oklahoma, then a Heisman-winning sophomore at USC, and then still a superstar for a wobbly USC team as a junior. He was the consensus #1 pick in the 2024 Draft, and he will now be tasked with playing the role of franchise savior. Williams has been groomed for this for nearly his entire life. If anyone can do it, it's Williams. As a fan, I'm really looking forward to watching him create. As someone who watches a lot of football, I'm confused because he looks like a superstar QB, yet he plays for the Bears.

Thankfully, Williams has an elite receiving group around him to ease his transition to the NFL. DJ Moore is a true #1 WR. So is Keenan Allen. And Rome Odunze was a steal at #9 in the Draft, suggesting that he has #1 WR potential. It's about as soft a landing as possible. Tyler Scott looks fine as a #4.

The tight end spot got a big influx of talent when Gerald Everett accepted the #2 TE gig. I remain lukewarm on Cole Kmet as a plus TE; he simply drops too many easy balls, but he's not bad. Everett, however, is a decent, low-end #1 TE...so he's a huge plus as a #2. The TE group will desperately need a draftee in 2025, but that's an issue for another year. This year, the Kmet-Everett combo offers lots of mismatch opportunities. Marcedes Lewis will block and catch three passes on the year, two of them for touchdowns.

The running back room lacks a big ceiling, but the depth is tremendous, yielding a very high floor. I hated the D'Andre Swift signing; hopefully he impresses, especially as a pass catcher. If he doesn't, the drop off shouldn't be big as both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson have starter-level experience. Most importantly, though, is the presence of Swiss Army knife Velus Jones in the RB room. Most Bears fans hate Jones for what he isn't: he isn't a WR, he isn't a good value as a 3rd round pick, and he isn't a punt returner. It would be great if he was those things. However, I love Jones for what he is: a versatile, explosive threat with the ball in his hands, an exciting kick returner with the chance to shine under the new rules, and a likely four-phase special teams contributor. That's a really useful player, even if he's bad value at #71 in the 2022 Draft.

The offensive line offers a lot of promise, but there are admittedly a lot of variables in play here. Braxton Jones looks like an average LT and Darnell Wright should be at least an average RT, to the bookends are in good shape. OT depth, however, is a massive concern, especially to start the year. While Kiran Amegadjie projects as a long-term potential LT and Larry Borom comes with lots of experience, neither figures to be a viable help in the early going. Amegadjie is still working back from a significant quad injury suffered at Yale, and Borom is both (i) more of a guard, and (ii) on Injured Reserve. The interior OL has more options, but a much, much lower floor among the starters. Teven Jenkins is a star at LG...when he's on the field. Nate Davis might be a solid RG...when he's on the field. Ryan Bates could be a decent starting C...when he's on the field. All three have struggled with injuries, and the depth options aren't terribly inspiring. Backup C Coleman Shelton was a poor starter for the Rams last year, and both Matt Pryor and Bill Murray look like roster fodder at guard. The starting OL could be an average unit, but it's hard to see a higher ceiling whereas it's easy to see a lower floor.

Defense

It all starts up front on the defense...because that's where the big questions are. Montez Sweat is a fringe star at DE who proved to be an idyllic fit in the Eberflus defense after arriving from Washington last year. His health is paramount to the team's success. The other DEs are more confusing. Jake Martin is on IR, and both Daniel Hardy and Dominique Robinson barely made the roster. That means the Bears are looking to DeMarcus Walker, Darrell Taylor, and/or Austin Booker to produce opposite Sweat. Walker looks like a tweener who remains best suited for an interior role on third down. Taylor was available for a 6th round pick two weeks ago, so expecting a big impact seems foolish. So, it all comes down to Booker. I loved Booker in the Draft and am ecstatic that he's a Bear. However, that's largely because I think Booker can be a plus starter in 2026 and an average starter as soon as 2025 after he adds 15+ pounds to his 245-lbs. frame. He can probably contribute in a limited role in 2024, but the Bears might need him to play starter reps. *gulp*

The interior DL is very thin. Chris Williams was available for the equivalent of a 6th round pick two weeks ago (sound familiar?), so he shouldn't be counted on to play a big role. That puts big pressure on Gervon Dexter, Andrew Billings, and Zacch Pickens. Unfortunately, Pickens is banged up to start the year, and, even when healthy, he seems better suited to play the three technique spot. That's unfortunate because Pickens simply isn't as good as Dexter. There's incredible pressure on Dexter to take a big step and for Billings to play a ton of reps as the one technique given the lack of other options on the roster. If the Bears can successfully force opposing teams into obvious passing situations, I expect to see Walker and possibly even Taylor slide inside, taking some of the burden off of Billings in particular.

(Yes, it's funny that Billings is listed at 311 while Dexter is listed at *drumroll* 312. They carry their weight much, much differently.)

If the front four can produce at even an average rate, the defense has a chance to be a real strength. That starts at the second level, where T.J. Edwards was a star in 2023. Tremaine Edmunds retains the much higher ceiling even after a wobbly debut; thankfully, Edmunds made a handful of big plays and hopefully he can blossom in his second year in the system. At just 26, he should have plenty left in the tank. When a third LB is necessary, third-year man Jack Sanborn offers plenty. Second-year man Noah Sewell needs to get healthy. If he can do so, he should be able to push Sanborn for reps this year.

The biggest beneficiary of improved DL play, however, would be the secondary. This unit features a robust collection of experienced yet still young talent, and a little more help up front could help them reach their stratospheric ceiling. CB1 Jaylon Johnson is among the NFL's best, all while being one of five Bears DBs expected to play starter-level reps at age 25 or younger this year. He is joined in that regard by emerging leader S Jaquan Brisker, CB2 Tyrique Stevenson, CB3 Terell Smith, and nickel spiderman Kyler Gordon. Old man Kevin Byard replaces old man Eddie Jackson. The Bears surely hope that they get some semblance of the 2021 First-Team All-Pro version of Byard and not the 2023 version that looked dangerously close to being washed. The depth options here (CBs Josh Blackwell and Elijah Hicks; safeties Jaylon Jones and Jonathan Owens) are uninspiring with very low ceilings, but the big six are incredibly athletic and exciting.

It's quite confusing to see a Bears roster built to be strong in the back seven at the expense of the defensive line. Perhaps that's the new way to do things? It still looks strange to this Bears fan.

Special Teams

Cairo Santos lacks a big leg, but he has been extremely accurate. Long snapper could be a problem with Patrick Scales on IR. Thankfully, if the long snapper can get the ball to new punter Tory Taylor, the Aussie can shine as the true weapon he is.

The punt return game looks poor. Thankfully, the kick return game has a chance to be quite good if Jones can lead the way.

Schedule

Before making a season pick, here's the Bears' schedule for 2024:

1. Tennessee
2. @ Houston (Sunday Night Football)
3. @ Indianapolis
4. Los Angeles Rams
5. Carolina
6. Jacksonville (London)
   
7. BYE
8. @ Washington
9. @ Arizona
10. New England
11. Green Bay
12. Minnesota
13. @ Detroit (Thanksgiving)
14. @ San Francisco
15. @ Minnesota (Monday Night Football)
16. Detroit
17. Seattle (Thursday Night Football)
18. @ Green Bay

Well. That's definitely a last-place schedule. I'm going to look at it by month.

September (2-2)

I don't like the opening day matchup. I think that Tennessee is good and, potentially, very good. Their pass rush will give the Bears trouble and QBs drafted #1 overall haven't won in their debuts for 15 straight games. So, the nightmare comes true: the Bears lose their opener in a close game (let's say L 23-17), then get handled by a superior Texans team in Houston (L 30-13) to fall to 0-2. Yikes. But never fear: Williams secures his first win with a strong showing in Indianapolis (W 27-20) and then lights up the Rams to push the team to .500 (W 38-13).

October (2-1)

October shapes up beautifully, especially if the Bears can reach it at 2-2 or better. The Bears should overwhelm Carolina (W 24-10), though I think they'll drop a close one in London to the Jaguars (L 28-24). The bye comes at a nice time, and the team gets back over .500 with a win in Washington (W 21-18).

November (2-3)

November is moving time. The Bears struggle and fall in a trip to Arizona (L 29-14), dropping to 4-4. Following the loss, GM Ryan Poles decides to feed his limping pass rush by adding a piece before the trade deadline. The biggest fish that might become available as studs from struggling teams -- Las Vegas' Maxx Crosby, Tennessee's Harold Landry, Los Angeles' Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa, and New Orleans' Cam Jordan -- all come with significant salary cap complications that likely render a deal unfeasible. Instead, I think that Poles hunts for one of these five, ranging from my least favorite to my favorite target:

• Arden Key (TEN)
• I'm not sure if Key is a huge addition as he's likely still a specialist.
• Cost: 6th
• Chase Young (NO)
• Young is likely a rental again. The ceiling probably isn't huge anymore and the void years in his contract could prohibit a deal; I think the Bears would have to eat his future cap charges, making a deal untenable.
• Cost: 5th
• Jadeveon Clowney (CAR)
• Clowney looks like a good fit.
• Cost: 5th
• Tyree Wilson (LV)
• This is a bet on Wilson's pedigree and not his production to date. Crazy high ceiling still.
• Cost: 3rd
• Andrew Van Ginkel (MIN)
• I really like Van Ginkel and would've loved him this spring.
• Cost: 5th

Following the trade, the Bears recover with a rousing win over New England at home (W 30-20). Then Green Bay comes to town. Barf. A Packers blowout leads to some soul searching (L 37-10). Thankfully, the woeful Vikings come to town and prove to be the desired fix (W 24-9). Then, it's time for Thanksgiving in Detroit against the surging Lions. That goes poorly (L 28-16).

December (2-2)

The Bears entire December at 6-6, and a trip to San Francisco does them no favors as the 49ers roll (L 30-10). Minnesota remains bad, so despite a primetime trip, the Bears prevail on the road (W 20-14). The Lions have perennially struggled in Chicago, and that's especially true in December with Jared Goff at QB. However, I think that this year is different for Detroit, and the Lions sweep the Bears with a close win (L 29-27), dropping the Bears to 7-8. The Bears stay alive with a big win over Seattle on a quick week (W 31-23) to reach 8-8 and head into their finale with a chance to sneak into the playoffs.

January (0-1)

Unfortunately, that finale is a trip to Green Bay. Those don't go well. The Packers win big (L 34-13) to win the NFC North and eliminate the Bears. Yuck. Yuck yuck yuck.

Penn State Nittany Lions Football 2024 Season Preview and Big Ten Football Prediction

This time of year, my brain always shifts to football. At least, it always does when the Cubs are drifting into irrelevance.

Thankfully, the upcoming football season looks very exciting for me. A Bears preview will follow in the coming weeks; suffice it to say, that team looks fun with the potential to push for the postseason. But that's a story for another day.

Today, I focus on the Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State football is many things. A consistently solid program. A successful recruiting operation. A non-elite program. But more than anything else, they are the largest beneficiary of the new 12-team Playoff. James Franklin struggled through his first two seasons at the helm in 2014-15. In the eight years that followed, however, Franklin's teams failed to make a four-team Playoff...but they would have qualified for a 12-team Playoff six times (2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2022, and 2023)! The team's reputation surely would look a lot different.

That's all in the past. Now, in this new era of the 12-team Playoff, Penn State will be expected to qualify with regularity. And that begins with the 2024 Nittany Lions. So, what should we expect from the 2024 squad? That's much tougher to say than in the prior two years. Here's a look at the organization.

Coaching

We have to start here this year. While Coach Franklin has a decade under his belt at Penn State, his coaching staff looks much different this year. Highly successful DC Manny Diaz took the top gig at Duke, replaced by former Indiana HC Tom Allen. Allen enjoyed some unprecedented success with the Hoosiers, but it's hard to see this as anything other than a step down, despite Allen's chops as an LB coach. Former home run hire Mike Yurcich is out as OC, replaced by former Buffalo and Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki. Enjoying success in the Big 12 is hardly a quality prediction of Big Ten success ahead, but Nittany must hope that Kotelnicki flips that script. Finally, Justin Lustig comes aboard as the new Special Teams Coordinator. He'll need to get better production from the kickers while maintaining the extreme success of Riley Thompson's punting game.

Only one position group got a new position coach (except for the LBs) with Danny O'Brien replacing Yurcich as QB coach. No pressure, Danny. There is also lots of pressure on DL Coach Deion Barnes to perform, especially with a DT rotation that has underwhelmed for years. With Chop Robinson (21st overall) and Adisa Isaac (93rd overall) both off to the NFL, the DE group is much lighter than in year's past...but Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Amin Vanover, and Jameial Lyons bring plenty of pop on the edge. Barnes needs to get the DTs to play up.

Offense

Obviously the play of QB Drew Allar will go a long way to determining the fate of the 2024 Nittany Lions. The ceiling is high; very high. There's a reason Allar was the top-ranked QB in the Class of 2022: he's huge, his arm is elite, and he moves just well enough to keep defenses honest. That said...

I remain rather low on Allar. While the measurables are there, Allar looked terrible facing Ohio State, Michigan, and Ole Miss last year. He was extremely uncomfortable facing any pressure, a fact of life against elite competition. His accuracy is sneaky underwhelming, especially on the quick, horizontal passes that have been a staple of the Penn State offense in recent years. Add it all up and I think it's more likely that backup Beau Pribula replaces Allar as the starter this year than that Allar leads a raucous offensive performance against Ohio State on November 2nd. There's some praise for Pribula embedded in the prior sentence; Pribula evokes memories of Trace McSorley for a reason with big plays coming from his legs. At the very least, Pribula should get red zone snaps. Then again, it's not Allar's fault that Yurcich decided not to have the rocket-armed QB push the ball down the field.

If Allar pushes toward his ceiling, the team's ceiling kicks up in a big way. Importantly, I think Allar made the proper decision much more frequently than his predecessor did. There's a lot of value in that.

How does Allar produce? It would really help if this year's wide receivers played better than last year's wide receivers. The exodus of Keandre Lambert-Smith via the Portal doesn't help. They'll miss KLS, even though he vanished late last fall. He exploded in the Rose Bowl against Utah to end the 2022 season, then amassed an impressive 51 grabs for 645 yards over PSU's first nine games in 2023 through the Maryland contest. Then, almost nothing: 1/6 against Michigan, 0/0 against Rutgers, 1/22 against Michigan State, and 0/0 against Ole Miss.

Stepping into KLS's shoes as the new #1 WR: Harrison "Trey" Wallace III. Wallace's health is essential this year. He has top-notch speed and has produced, when he has been able to stay on the field. He has many of the same skills that KLS had, so he could prove to be a #1. The stakes are massive.

The rest of the WR corps requires a couple of guys stepping up into key roles. The biggest offseason addition was former Buckeye and Penn State recruiting loss Julian Fleming. If 2022 Fleming shows up at Penn State (34/533/6), the room looks pretty good. If he provides even more production, the sky is the limit. Fleming's inability to break through at OSU likely says more about OSU's WR room than it does about Fleming; he'll have a chance to make that the story this year. Penn State really missed the Mitchell Tinsley role last year, when Dante Cephas flopped via the Portal.

The remaining WRs come with lower ceilings than Fleming and Wallace, but there is plenty to dream on here. I had high hopes for Kaden Saunders, but he didn't do a lot last year, then stunk in the spring game. He took a lot of heat for being out of shape early in his career. 2024 is a make-or-break season for him. Liam Clifford has shown some flashes and could produce in the slot, but he'll need to be consistent given his relatively lower ceiling. Omari Evans comes with big speed and big-play ability, but he hasn't been able to hold a job. Penn State desperately needs a couple of WRs to step up to reach their goals as a team.

Thankfully for the Nittany Lions, the offensive floor for the team should be very, very high on the strength of the (i) tight end room, and (ii) rushing attack. Tyler Warren's return gives Penn State a good senior starter, a good mid-career #2 in Khalil Dinkins, and two young studs who will push their way into the lineup in RS FR Andrew Rappleyea and true FR Luke Reynolds. The well remains flush.

The offensive line is very interesting. After years of dreadful offensive line play undermining the offense as a whole, Phil Trautwein's units have produced consistently. A trio of 2023 starters are now pros: LT Olu Fashanu (#11), RT Caedan Wallace (#68), and C Hunter Nourzad (#159). The dirty secret on this trio: they were better draft prospects than they were college linemen, especially the OTs. Replacing three starters is always a little scary, but new LT Drew Shelton got a ton of reps over the last two years and the RT spot has two capable starters between emerging star Anthony Donkoh and experienced Wisconsin transfer Nolan Rucci. RG Saleem Wormley has been the best OL on the team and comes with multiple years of starting experience. While Vega Ione hasn't been a full-time starter at LG, he played 648 highly-productive snaps last year. The depth looks great up front at OT and G, even if most Penn State fans hope not to see former 5* J'Ven Williams at LT, high 4* Alex Birchmeier at G, or veteran Lackawanna transfer JB Nelson at either spot.

In my mind, the diciest spot is center, where RS SR Nick Dawkins gets his chance to shine. If Dawkins can produce similar to Nourzad before him, the offense can thrive. If not, the ceiling is lowered and/or it could put true FR Cooper Cousins in line to play a big role. Cousins has really impressed in camp, but starting a true FR at the pivot cannot be the goal.

Of course, we've saved the best for last: the running backs. RB depth isn't what it has been in year's past, but the top two of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen should compare favorably to any other tandem in the country. Hopefully true FR Quinton Martin forces his way into snaps, too, but Singleton and Allen should run the show. They've been very successful as pass catchers, too, so Kotelnicki should enjoy deploying his new toys.

Defense

The Penn State defense has been remarkably productive throughout James Franklin's tenure. In light of that, it is unsurprising that his two most recent defensive coordinators took Power Four head coaching jobs with Brent Pry at Virginia Tech and Manny Diaz now at Duke. If Tom Allen maintains this production, he could find himself with another opportunity to run a program in the coming years.

Allen's most important job: to work with Deion Barnes to get production out of his defensive tackle rotation. D'Von J-Thomas (formerly D'Von Ellies) will lead the way with three other highly experienced vets alongside him: Coziah Izzard, Hakeem Beamon, and Zane Durant. After playing at very low weights in prior years -- Beamon played as low as 260 pounds in 2022! -- this group now has Beamon at 285, Durant at 290, and two players in the 300s (J-Thomas and Izzard). Penn State lacked the girth up front to hold up against the most powerful OLs in the Big Ten in prior years. And they have a surprise addition: former DE Smith Vilbert bulked up to 292 to play on the inside this year. If he retained a chunk of his quickness, he could change the story inside. This group now has the weight to hold up against beefy rushing attacks; will the production follow? There's no help coming from lower on the depth chart, so it's all on their shoulders.

The rest of the Penn State defense requires fewer words because, well, they should be great and possibly better than that. It starts at defensive end. Vilbert likely won't be missed outside. Dani Dennis-Sutton will lead the way after generating absurd amounts of pressure last year. With his frame and production, he's likely headed to the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft...where he may well be joined by converted LB Adbul Carter. Carter has looked and played like Micah Parsons Jr. thus far, but given the need for elite production at DE, he moved up in the spring. If Carter clicks, the pass rush should remain elite. #3 DE Amin Vanover has been very productive in limited reps; here's hoping he continues to do so with more snaps.

The depth at DE took a pair of hits recently. Oft-injured veteran Zuriah Fisher appears lost for the season and emerging true SO Jameial Lyons is serving an indefinite suspension that may end his career at Penn State is no longer enrolled at Penn State following some type of serious off-the-field matter. In light of Vilbert's shift, Fisher's injury, and Lyons' suspension dismissal, the #4 DE spot is a question mark, but that 4th DE doesn't figure to get a ton of reps with how the roster is constructed.

The linebacker group isn't the deepest that Penn State has featured over the last few decades, but it is plenty strong at the top. Leading the way is emerging star true SO Tony Rojas, who forced his way into starting-level snaps last season. Rojas is ready to explode. He has steady RS JR Kobe King next to him manning the middle. The third LB spot is more interesting. Here's my expectation, though this hasn't yet been made explicit: when facing beefy, run-heavy attacks, Carter will slide back to OLB with Vilbert kicking outside to DE. Conversely, against pass-happy offenses, Penn State will play a lot of 4-2-5 with King and Rojas as the only two LBs or a 4-3 with Dom DeLuca getting the third LB spot. DeLuca is a nice college football story, a walk-on who plays big reps, but he's going to be wildly outmatched against top competition. It will be essential to limit or even eliminate his reps against Ohio State.

Linebacker depth is very poor entering the season. The top two OLB reserves are both out. Keon Wylie suffered an injury in spring ball and Kaveion Keys was suspended related to the same incident that claimed Lyons has also been dismissed stemming from the same matter that claimed Lyons. Inside, Tyler Elsdon suffers from many of the same shortcomings as DeLuca. Thus, should King or Rojas to down, a heavy load should fall on the shoulders of Ta'Mere Robinson. Robinson is an MLB, but he has the athleticism necessary to run with top competition.

Despite lacking depth at LB and potentially at DE, the story couldn't be more different in the defensive backfield. Despite the top three CBs from 2023 now plying their trade in the pros (Kalen King, Johnny Dixon, and Dae'quan Hardy), the defensive backfield should be elite in 2024. Losing budding star King Mack to Alabama in the Portal hurt, but the rest of the safeties return and were the strength of last year's defense. Kevin Winston Jr. leads the way, but Zakee Wheatley and Jaylen Reed offer plus production, too. This should enable Penn State to bring along their four freshman safeties slowly (RS FR DaKaari Nelson and Lamont Payne along with true FR Dejuan Lane and Vaobue Toure). Reed figures to get a lot of time in the slot, so Nelson in particular could get a bit of run this year.

The CBs are very exciting. True SOs Elliot Washington II and Zion Tracy would be expected on the two-deep in most years, but they instead find themselves as the #5 and #6 CBs this year, thanks to success in the Portal. Veteran Cam Miller figures to hold down one job with surprise Georgia transfer AJ Harris opposite him. 2023 Portal steal Audavion Collins should get plenty of playing time while old man Jalen Kimber offers a reliable #4. This group is deep and has plenty of ceiling, especially if Harris emerges. If either of the Jackonsville-based freshmen force their way into playing time, this group could be scary good.

Special Teams

Gabe Nwosu should boom his kickoffs. Riley Thompson's punting will remain a welcome sight. But Penn State's kicking game has a chance to be much, much worse, given the uncertainty between Sander Sahaydak and Chase Meyer. Hopefully one emerges. Singleton and Martin will scare plenty of teams returning kickoffs, but the punt returner gig is a question, too.

Schedule

As we head into a season pick, here's the Penn State schedule for 2024:

• @ West Virginia
• Bowling Green
• BYE
• Kent State
• Illinois
• UCLA
• @ USC
• BYE
• @ Wisconsin
• Ohio State
• Washington
• @ Purdue
• @ Minnesota
• Maryland

The most jarring part of this schedule is who isn't on it: Michigan and Oregon. It's possible that this new 12-team playoff era will feature the CFP Committee rethinking its longstanding preference for teams that don't lose over teams that play hard games, but until that happens, loss avoidance remains paramount.

The opener at West Virginia figures to be a tough opener. This has been a theme for Penn State in recent seasons, opening with Power Four road games in 2021 (Wisconsin), 2022 (Purdue), and now 2024 after hosting the Mountaineers last year. West Virginia was sneaky tough last year and Garrett Greene has produced a ton for WVU. OL stars Zach Frazier and Doug Nester are gone, but a pair of Penn State recruiting misses will power the offense in star LT Wyatt Milum and WR Rodney Gallagher. WVU ranks 34th in SP+ coming out of the spring, one spot ahead of new Big Ten foe Washington. That PSU-Washington contest would look mighty different in Seattle. Vegas set Washington's over/under at 6.5 wins, giving Penn State fans a sense for where West Virginia might slot as a conference foe. Penn State is appropriately favored over West Virginia by 10.5 on the road. 10.5 is a lot...but it's not that much. That opener is scary.

The following month is far less interesting. Illinois can try to play bully ball but lacks the horses with which to do it. UCLA could be feisty this year, but they have to travel 2,500 miles for the game and face Oregon and LSU in the two prior weeks; the Bruins will likely be licking their wounds when they arrive at Beaver Stadium on October 5th.

The season kicks into high gear for Penn State after that UCLA game. The trip to USC looks scary on paper: it's a road game against a talented roster where Franklin will likely be outcoached by Lincoln Riley. But this brings us to a key understanding about this current era of Penn State football: Penn State is designed to play with OSU, USC, and SEC teams, not bully ball teams. That means they play better than expected against certain types of elite competition, but they struggle against teams that want to punch you in the mouth, like Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, certain iterations of Michigan State, Minnesota, and even Illinois.

In light of that, I like Penn State's chances to run through USC. The Penn State defense is well designed to slow the USC offense and USC's defense will likely have a brutal day stopping the Nittany Lions. Add it all up and I think Penn State reaches their second bye week at 6-0.

Coming out of the bye, things could get scary in a hurry. Wisconsin should be red hot when Penn State comes to Madison; the Badgers start October hosting Purdue, travelling to Rutgers, and then hosting Northwestern. That is a tough matchup for the Nittany Lions even before accounting for the style of play issues. Luke Fickell is building up the Wisconsin program, and after a September slate that features contests against Alabama and USC, they could still be looking for their marquee win on October 26th. I'm afraid that the Badgers will get it.

If Penn State loses to Wisconsin, they'll need to regroup in a hurry with the ultra-elite Buckeyes coming to town for what will stupidly be a noon kick. Unfortunately, James Franklin's teams have routinely flopped following the season's first loss. Here are their results under Franklin:

• 2014: LOSS 13-18 @ Michigan (5-7)
• 2015: WIN 31-30 @ Maryland (3-9)
• 2016: WIN 29-26 in OT v. Minnesota (9-4)
• 2017: LOSS 24-27 @ Michigan State (10-3) 
• 2018: LOSS 17-21 v. Michigan State (7-6)
• 2019: WIN 34-27 v. Indiana (8-5)
• 2021: LOSS 18-20 in 9OT v. Illinois (5-7)
• 2022: WIN 45-17 v. Minnesota (9-4)
• 2023: WIN 33-24 v. Indiana (3-9)

Some of those results get much worse upon further inspection. Penn State was a 9-point favorite at Michigan State in 2017, a 14.5-point favorite hosting Indiana in 2019, and a 24-point favorite against Illinois in 2021. Last year's result might be the most striking. Penn State was favored by 30.5 at home against a reeling Indiana squad on its way to bottoming out, but the game was tied at 24 with two minutes to play.

So what happens when the post-loss contest is against arguably college football's best team? I'd rather not find out. But it won't be pretty.

Now despondent following consecutive losses, I think Penn State will rip through Washington in the Whiteout (hopefully a 3:30pm kick or later) and Purdue, and I think Senior Day against Maryland will be a cakewalk in spite of the sleepy stadium that always features on Thanksgiving weekend. It's that November 23 trip to Minneapolis that has me nervous.

Minnesota is a bad matchup for Penn State. Yes, Penn State obliterated Minnesota in their last meeting during the Whiteout in 2022, but that game was played against reserve true FR QB Athan Kaliakmanis with the much better but concussed Tanner Morgan unvailable. The Gophers struggled to a 6-7 season in 2023, but PJ Fleck has never endured consecutive losing seasons as a head coach. Bully ball + November road game + Fleck's recovery season = yikes. I think the Gophers take this one and push Penn State down to a horribly disappointing 9-3 season that does not include a Playoff bid.

I do expect Penn State to be favored in every game except Ohio State, so 9-3 would be an underwhelming outcome.