However, the large sports media networks love to discuss "surprises" that really aren't all that surprising. With that in mind, here are a few unsurprising developments to the examining fan and a few legitimate ones too.
Not Surprising (or at least not that surprising)
1. The Arizona Cardinals' hot start. Arizona absolutely deserves credit for winning their first four contests, particularly their stunning road win in New England. But it has pundits confusing them for a contender. This is still a team with major, crippling issues, namely at quarterback and along the offensive line. A quick look at their wins makes this clear.
They opened by defeating Seattle and rookie QB Russell Wilson at home in a nail-biter that required numerous stops in the red zone at the end. Then, despite being outgained by 140 yards and turning the ball over more than their hosts, Arizona squeaked past the Patriots when Stephen Gostkowski missed a 42-yd field goal to end the game. They followed that win by dominating the paper tiger Philadelphia Eagles, a team with three wins by a combined four points (though two of them are over the tough Ravens and Giants). Finally, Arizona was gashed by Dolphins rookie QB Ryan Tannehill for 431 yards, but scored two fourth quarter touchdowns en route to escaping in overtime.
I tend to think that yardage is overrated and that taking the ball away from your opponent is the most important ability a defense possesses. Arizona's defense has taken the ball away, but they are allowing so many yards that the unit probably can't carry the team entirely on its own. That wouldn't be a deal-breaker for a team with a strong offense; but the Cardinals hardly qualify. Arizona's rushing offense ranks 31st in the league and the passing offense is run by a below-average quarterback in Kevin Kolb.
Their 4-0 start is easily foreseeable: the schedule. Unsurprisingly, I pegged Arizona to lose in New England, but I nonetheless had them at 3-1. Their home win over Seattle was largely a tossup as predicted. Teams traveling across the country tend to struggle, and the Eagles fit that profile. Finally, a one-score win over Miami at home should be expected by just about every team in the league, especially when Miami has to travel across multiple time zones.
Even from a 3-1 start, I predicted that the Cardinals would close the season at 4-12. They're only a good bet to win one of their remaining home contests (St. Louis) as they host Buffalo, San Francisco, Detroit, and Chicago the rest of the way. Road trips to Minnesota, Green Bay, Atlanta, Seattle, and San Francisco are near-locks as losses. Who knows what the Jets will look like in December; regardless, it's hard to see Arizona getting past six wins even after the upset in New England. As such, their 4-1 record at this stage in the season is largely in line with expectations.
2. The New York Giants' slow start. The Giants are a very good, albeit imperfect team. They've actually looked a bit better than I expected. Although I'm a bit surprised by their home loss to Dallas, I'm much more surprised by their pulverizing win in Carolina. I had the team at 2-2 on their way to a very strong 10-6 NFC East championship. That still looks about right even though they have arguably the NFL's toughest schedule facing the NFC South, AFC North, San Francisco, and Green Bay.
3. The First-Place Cincinnati Bengals. Andy Dalton has been much better than most people predicted when he entered the league. He's a below-average starting quarterback, but just barely. It's clear that there's plenty of value in having a starter in the third of four tiers of starters (17-24 range); he probably won't make a ton of impact plays that win tight games, but he's not going to lose games for his team.
At 3-1, it seems that Dalton is closer to 17 than 24. After getting destroyed by Baltimore, the young signal-caller has responded with wins over Cleveland, at Washington, and at Jacksonville. Winnings road games is hard, no matter what.
But it's a pretty empty 3-1. After facing Miami at home and traveling to Cleveland, the cupcake portion of the schedule ends abruptly. The Bengals still look more like a 6-10 team than a 10-6 one, although I admit that there's legitimate reason for optimism given Dalton's progression and a strong, defensive-minded draft.
Genuinely Surprising
1. The First-Place Minnesota Vikings. Raise your hand if you foresaw back-to-back Vikings wins versus San Francisco and at Detroit. Leslie Frazier, you can put your hand down. They might not win a single game after their mid-November bye (@ Chicago, @ Green Bay, Chicago, @ St. Louis, @ Houston, Green Bay), but they could ride their last-place schedule to something like an 8-2 mark heading into that stretch (Tennessee, @ Washington, Arizona, Tampa Bay, @ Seattle, Detroit).
It's not as if they have been winning in dominating fashion, needing overtime to beat the lowly Jaguars at home and failing to score an offensive touchdown against the sieve that is Detroit's secondary. But they're running the ball well in spite of a poor passing attack, and their defense has been fantastic. They might be the fourth best team in the NFC North by the end of the season if Detroit's defensive backfield can get healthy. But it's hard to see the Vikings finishing in last place right now given the defense's success.
2. RGIII. I admit that I'm probably the only one who wasn't buying Robert Griffin III coming out of Baylor. I saw him as an insanely athletic quarterback coming out of a system that thrived in college but not in the NFL. To be fair to me, his replacement Nick Florence has thrown for 1,585 yards and 16 touchdowns in just four games; RGIII threw for 1,308 yards and 18 scores in his first four games last year. The Baylor offensive system absolutely works and produces huge numbers.
But RGIII sure looks special. Despite playing three of his first four games on the road - something that offsets the inflation of facing the porous Saints defense - he's on pace to throw for almost 4,300 yards, he has a 4-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he is on pace to rush for over 900 yards. It's getting really, really hard for me to be bullish on RGIII.
3. New Orleans' inability to get the job done. Be it Garrett Hartley missing a potential game-winner in Green Bay, blowing a 15-point fourth quarter lead at home versus the dreadful Chiefs, or being gashed by RGIII in his debut, the Saints have already turned in a season's worth of head-scratching losses. It's clear that they miss Sean Payton more than many of us assumed they would.
They are yet to lose by more than one score - and their last two losses have been particularly backbreaking - but it's hard to see them recovering after failing in the easy portion of their schedule. Four one-score losses for Drew Brees? Consider me surprised.
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In the same vein as my Big Ten picks, I made all of my NFL picks in August before the season began. Here are this week's picks, followed by my predicted standings.
Week Five Picks
@ St. Louis 14, Arizona 10
@ Cincinnati 25, Miami 13
@ Kansas City 13, Baltimore 9
@ Pittsburgh 33, Philadelphia 19
@ New York Giants 28, Cleveland 10
Chicago 32, @ Jacksonville 16
Atlanta 24, @ Washington 14
Green Bay 26, @ Indianapolis 20
@ San Francisco 20, Buffalo 13@ Carolina 26, Seattle 6
@ Minnesota 17, Tennessee 16
@ New England 31, Denver 20
@ New Orleans 48, San Diego 14
Houston 30, @ New York Jets 27
Predicted Standings
NFC North
Green Bay (14-2)
Chicago (11-5)
Detroit (9-7)
Minnesota (4-12)
NFC South
New Orleans (11-5)
Atlanta (10-6)
Carolina (8-8)
Tampa Bay (8-8)
NFC West
San Francisco (13-3)
Seattle (5-11)
Arizona (4-12)
St. Louis (3-13)
NFC East
New York Giants (10-6)
Dallas (10-6)
Philadelphia (9-7)
Washington (6-10)
AFC North
Baltimore (11-5)
Pittsburgh (10-6)
Cincinnati (4-12)
Cleveland (4-12)
AFC South
Houston (12-4)
Tennessee (6-10)
Indianapolis (4-12)
Jacksonville (3-13)
AFC West
Denver (11-5)
San Diego (7-9)
Kansas City (6-10)
Oakland (6-10)
AFC East
New England (14-2)
New York Jets (10-6)
Buffalo (9-7)
Miami (5-11)
Wild Card Round
(4) New York Giants over (5) Chicago
(3) New Orleans over (6) Dallas
(3) Baltimore over (6) New York Jets
(4) Denver over (5) Pittsburgh
Divisional Round
(1) Green Bay over (4) New York Giants
(2) San Francisco over (3) New Orleans
(3) Baltimore over (2) Houston
(4) Denver over (1) New England
Conference Championships
(1) Green Bay over (2) San Francisco
(3) Baltimore over (4) Denver
Super Bowl
(1) Green Bay over (3) Baltimore, 31-16
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