Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Bears at the Bye: Defensive Pre-Season Expectations Versus First Quarter Reality

I tackled the offense last Wednesday. After a little down time due to sickness and a long trip for a wedding, here we are with the defense. As a reminder, the grading scale is given again below.

NOTE: I like to use a non-inflated grading scheme. I will be using a scale from zero to ten. For reference, zero represents abject failure, a unit that is clearly the worst in the league. Use the 2004 Bears quarterbacks for comparison, the incredible four-headed monster of Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, Jonathan Quinn, and Rex Grossman that produced an incredible average game of 15.6 completions on 29.4 attempts with 0.6 touchdowns and 1 interception. On the other end of the spectrum, ten represents the 1985 Bears linebacking corps of Mike Singletary, Otis Wilson, and Wilbur Marshall, a unit that is decidedly the class of the league, a combination of big plays and consistency.

Defensive Tackles
Pre-Season Expectations: 8.5
I'm almost certainly alone here, but I absolutely loved our DTs entering the season. I really liked Henry Melton and saw a huge season from him in a contract year. Stephen Paea should have contributed quite a bit after a full year in the system and with a healthy off-season. Amobi Okoye is the perfect third lineman, although concerns about his knee had me a bit more bullish on him this year. Matt Toeaina has never done it for me, but as long as he's #4 it's ok.

Current Evaluation: 8.0
No individual player has grabbed the reins as a dominant player. Melton had a tremendous start yet again, but has already turned in a dud performance. He has still been undoubtedly the best DT so far. Paea has had a few nice games and is showing signs of turning into a similar player to Melton with more power and less speed. Okoye has looked every bit as good as last season, a huge surprise given Tampa's need at DT and their willingness to punt on him this off-season. Toeaina has been the same uninspiring, decent player from the past few years. Thing is, given those top three, the position has turned in an above-average showing in every contest and even produced two excellent showings. I love this trio, but I recognize that Melton may be gone in three months, so I'm enjoying the ride.

Defensive Ends
Pre-Season Expectations: 7.5
Any position group with Julius Peppers should be good. But I expected Izzy Idonije to be roughly league-average, Shea McClellin to do basically nothing while putting on weight for a year, and Corey Wootton to....well, maybe not be on the roster. Peppers is that good, but I expected to be frustrated by the production across from him.

Current Evaluation: 9.5
So much for that. Peppers has been every bit as dominant as expected, continuing to play at an elite level at age 32. Idonije has been above-average over the course of the first five games, also exceeding expectations at age 31. McClellin has been about what I expected, although his speed is even better than anticipated. He has still had problems getting pushed around by offensive tackles, a problem he will struggle with until he can bulk up. But the reason this position has been so tremendously successful this year instead of simply good is Wootton. I was really excited about snagging Wootton in 2010's fourth round, but his collegiate knee injuries and professional injury proneness seemed to stop his career in its tracks. This year, he has been healthy and as strong as we could have hoped. He has played like a lesser version of Peppers. Excellent DE play is driving this team.

Linebackers
Pre-Season Expectations: 7.0
I love Brian Urlacher but he is fading. Coming off of a knee injury and at 34, he should have been able to provide a slightly above-average year because of his experience in the cover-2. But probably not much more. Lance Briggs was also into his 30s, so a big season would be unexpected. Nick Roach has been a solid contributor in his time with the Bears, but I didn't expect any improvement from him. Geno Hayes only should have been a special teamer.

Current Evaluation: 9.0
Urlacher is absolutely slower. He has missed plays that he would not have even last year. But he is still making more plays than I expected from him. Briggs, on the other hand, has been much better than expected. He is playing as well as I can remember at any time in his career. Roach has similarly exceeded expectations. The Chicago Bears expect excellence at linebacker and this trio has absolutely provided it. Hayes has contributed well on special teams, although he hopefully remains on the bench when the defense is on the field.

Cornerbacks
Pre-Season Expectations: 6.5
I have loved Peanut Tillman for years. He is my favorite Bear. However, I expected that he would also slow down at this stage of his career given his extremely physical style of play. I haven't liked Tim Jennings since the 2011 NFC Championship Game when the big Green Bay receivers dominated the diminutive corner. I saw him holding down a job as a below-average starter. Kelvin Hayden was a great addition as a reserve corner; D.J. Moore should continue to fulfill the nickle role well while being overmatched should he ever have to move outside.

Current Evaluation: 10.0
There's no way another team has produced as much in their defensive backfield. Moore played a poor first half in Dallas, then redeemed himself by tackling well and intercepting Romo. Hayden has played well in the nickle role and unsurprisingly held his own outside when pressed there. But this rating is all about the Tillman-Jennings combination. Jennings earned every bit of his September Player of the Month award, combining his always-solid tackling with an extremely aggressive approach on balls in the air that he has not used in the past. In my view, Tillman has still been the better of the pair, but it has required a truly elite performance from him thus far. The cover-2 thrives with corner play like this.

Safeties
Pre-Season Expectations: 6.0
Chris Conte is another favorite of mine and I expected him to be well above-average given his power-speed combination in the cover-2. Major Wright has been wildly inconsistent during his time in Chicago, so I figured he'd be just shy of league-average as a veteran in the scheme. I was incredibly high on Brandon Hardin entering the season, reasoning that he was a bigger, faster version of Conte, but his season-ending injury in the pre-season put a damper on my spirits. Craig Steltz is an ideal reserve given his special teams ability.

Current Evaluation: 9.5
I'm not sure Conte could play better than he has. He has had plenty of big hits, but mostly used his speed to tighten passing windows, helping to force a number of intercepted underthrows. He might be the ideal cover-2 safety. Wright has been excellent, a big surprise to me. He still seems occasionally awkward physically, but overall has been great. Most importantly, both have been healthy for the most part. If they stay healthy all year, they could turn in the best season at the position in Lovie Smith's tenure.

Punter (include coverage unit)
Pre-Season Expectations: 7.5
Adam Podlesh doesn't have a very strong leg. I didn't expect him to develop one overnight. I did expect him to place his punts well and minimize returns. Any Dave Toub unit should excel.

Current Evaluation: 7.5
This unit has been almost exactly was I perceived it would be. Podlesh hasn't pumped out any gigantic punts, but he also isn't getting his punts returned.

Punt Returner
Pre-Season Expectations: 10.0
It's Devin Hester. Come on.

Current Evaluation: 5.0
Well, I guess he hasn't been Devin Hester yet.

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