The Infield Fly Rule: A Cluster...Well, You Know What

The talk of the sports world is rightly on Andrelton Simmons' 200 foot infield flyball tonight in Atlanta. It's a real treat to have such a rich example of pushing the boundaries of a rule. So here goes.

First, the basics. For those of you who missed it, Simmons came to the plate in the bottom of the eighth inning with runners on first and second, one out, and the Braves trailing the Cardinals in Major League Baseball's first ever wild card one-game showdown 6-3. Simmons hit a towering flyball on a line between Cardinals SS Pete Kozma and 3B Matt Carpenter. The ball would accurately be described as a popup....but it carried Kozma a solid 80 feet into the outfield from his spot at shortstop during its roughly six seconds of airtime. Kozma arrived at the spot where the ball would fall with about one second to spare. He waived his arms to call off charging LF Matt Holliday. Then, for some reason, he ducked forward, allowing the ball to drop just beyond his head and in front of Holliday. All three runners advanced safely, and the Braves had reason to believe that pinch-hitter Brian McCann and leadoff ace Michael Bourn could extend their season at least an additional week.

But it was not to be.

As Kozma flailed his arms to call off Holliday, the bonus umpire in left field called for the Infield Fly Rule. In the end, both runners successfully advanced, but Simmons was called out.

The impact of this call was enormous. Here are the expected run outputs for an offense facing Atlanta's two possible situations:

Bases loaded, one out: 1.51170 runs expected
Runners on 2nd and 3rd, two outs: .59003 runs expected

Simply put, the call was expected to cost the Braves nearly a full run. More importantly, the Braves needed three runs to tie the game. Their odds of scoring three or more runs in an inning given those same situations:


Bases loaded, one out: 23.48877%
Runners on 2nd and 3rd, two outs: 6.84872%

(Hat tip to Greg Stoll for the data taken from MLB games from 1959-2005)

Some have foolishly argued that the Braves were in a better situation given the call; obviously, this data smashes that argument.

Plenty of folks will discuss whether MLB should have foul line umpires in the outfield during the playoffs given that umpires do not work that spot during the regular season. It's a wonderful question, and one I'm not going to discuss here.

So here is the question: did the umpire make the right call?

The answer? No. But it's not as heinous as we might assume.

MLB defines "Infield Fly" - and the Infield Fly Rule by association - in section 2.00 of its rule book. Most fans know the basic scenario: the Infield Fly Rule applies when there is a pop fly with fewer than two outs with runners on first and second or with the bases loaded where an infielder is going to make a routine play. Easy enough.

But what constitutes an "Infield Fly" is explicitly a judgment call to be made by the umpire. The rule states that the ball "can be caught by the infielder with ordinary effort" (my emphasis). As the clip shows, Kozma actually has to run to chase the ball; he isn't camping under a ball popped up directly to him. More importantly, even though he gets very near the spot where the ball eventually falls uncaught, he never stopped moving on his way to that location. For an infielder who slowly walks, fading with a wind-blown popup, this constant movement isn't a problem. Kozma is running/jogging, expounding legitimate effort in his tracking of the ball. If that constitutes "ordinary effort," very few plays require anything else.

In my view, the next selection from the rule does the most damage to the umpire's argument. Paragraph two states, "When it seems apparent that a batted ball will be an Infield Fly, the umpires shall immediately declare "Infield Fly" for the benefit of the runners." Here, it becomes clear that MLB anticipates the Infield Fly Rule being invoked when an umpire has enough time to see the ball and determine that it will be easily caught with ordinary effort with enough time left over to make the call to alert the runners. It contemplates four individual steps: (1) see the ball, (2) determine that the Infield Fly Rule applies, (3) make the call, (4) the runners are alerted and react accordingly. The video is particularly clear beginning at 1:41. A breakdown of the events:

1:42 (late in the second): Simmons makes contact
1:43 (early): Kozma reacts immediately and turns to track the ball
1:47/1:48: Kozma calls off Holliday, finally making the universal "I got it" two handed wave at 1:48
1:48 (late): The umpire makes the call (Kozma appears to have ducked away from the ball a few milliseconds before the call is made)
1:49 (early): The ball touches the ground

The purpose of the Infield Fly Rule is to prevent the defense from obtaining a cheap double play. Presumably, the rule was introduced to help offenses keep the baserunners they had earned and, in turn, to increase scoring. The umpire's call happens less than one second before the ball contacts the ground. If it isn't clear that an infielder will catch the ball with ordinary effort until the last second on a ball that flew for over six seconds, the effort required probably wasn't ordinary.

The Comment to the rule provides further insight. It largely explains an incomparable situation where, even if an outfielder catches the ball, the Rule still applies if an infielder could have handled the ball with ordinary effort. However, the last sentence is a dagger: "The umpire's judgment must govern, and the decision should be made immediately."

Immediately. There are some plays in sports where making a decision in the final second could still be considered immediate. The Infield Fly Rule is not one of them.

At this point, the invocation seems almost incomprehensible. So why isn't the call as terrible as we might expect?

The opening sentence of the Comment clarifies that, "the umpire is to rule whether the ball could ordinarily have been handled by an infielder---not by some arbitrary limitation such as the grass, or the base lines." Most of the spectactor's outrage stems from the Infield Fly Rule being applied in a play where the ball travels a significant distance beyond the confines of the dirt infield. MLB took extra caution to explain that, although it is called the Infield Fly Rule, it is more accurately the Infielder Fly Rule. With the location of the ball immaterial to the play, the umpire's call is much more defensible given his broad discretion, though still wrong.

Unfortunately, sometimes the human element of sports appears as a critical mistake. Still, it's important to consider what would have happened on the play had the ball dropped right in front of Matt Holliday, leading to the rare 7-5-4 double play. To be clear, the baserunners played the ball well and a double play would not have occurred in this instance.

Nevertheless, the umpires are trained to enforce the rules considering even those remote possibilities. It's a shame that the Atlanta season ends with such a controversial call. But at least it makes a tiny bit more sense.