1. While Michigan, Michigan State, and Purdue all lost to Notre Dame, at least the Irish look good. Maybe really good. Notre Dame will not run the table this year; there's a better chance of either presidential candidate sweeping the states. Their defensive front, led by a barrage of strong defensive linemen and LB Manti Te'o, will keep their opponents from piling up scores. While their passing offense lacks an identity in the midst of the Everett Golson-Tommy Reese back-and-forth, the rushing attack is strong and the offensive line should provide either signal caller plenty of time to enable a functional pass attack. If the Irish can manage at least three wins in remaining contests against Miami, Stanford, BYU, Oklahoma, and USC - a tall order to be frank - then they should reach double-digit victories for the first time since 2006. A 10-win Notre Dame squad makes the trio of Big Ten losses seem much more palatable, particularly if the Irish can defeat one of Oklahoma and USC.
2. Northwestern's Start. Coach Pat Fitzgerald is a favorite of many Big Ten fans. But there's no disguising the fact that the Wildcats tend to be undermanned compared to their conference competition. Still, Fitzgerald's teams have been a good bet for bowl eligibility and at least one dreadful performance in non-conference play each year (losses to Army in 2011, Syracuse in 2009, Duke in 2007 (Duke's only win), and FCS New Hampshire in 2006; squeaking past Vanderbilt by 2 in 2010, Central Michigan by 5 in 2010, and Duke by 4 in 2008). This year, while I initially pegged the Cats to be 4-1 through five games, they've turned in a perfect 5-0 record thanks to a thrilling 42-41 win in their opener at Syracuse. Northwestern enjoyed the aforementioned win before two-score wins over Vanderbilt and Boston College. While pummeling FCS South Dakota and beating Big Ten cellar dweller Indiana are hardly notable achievements, simply taking care of business means a solid showing in the conference could yield an eight or nine win season as opposed to the six victories I forecast. QB Kain Colter's versatility gives Northwestern the chance to steal a game - perhaps at Minnesota or even home for Nebraska - that would otherwise be a likely loss.
3. Denard Robinson is healthy. This is a minor miracle. After facing two ferocious defenses against Alabama and Notre Dame, the only area of concern for Denard appears to be his confidence in his passing ability. That's a good thing for the Wolverines, especially after he unwisely threw his shoulder into hulking Alabama DB Dee Milliner in the opener. Their trip to Purdue likely determines whether they are a seven or nine win team; a healthy quarterback should make the difference.
4. Ohio State is winning. Sure, the Buckeyes aren't eligible for the postseason this year, but they're playing games and building a program. Urban Meyer has always won. Whether Big Ten fans like it or not, the Ohio State recruiting classes foretell that the conference's best opportunity for a nationally competitive team in the next few years likely resides in Columbus, even considering their postseason ban. There's no better path to relevancy than playing an SEC foe in hostile territory in January and knocking them out. The Buckeyes are laying the foundation.
5. Minnesota is back from the abyss. Since a week six win over Purdue pushed the 2009 Gophers squad to 4-2, Minnesota sported a woeful 8-23 record entering 2012. They've hardly been dominant, but having already surpassed last year's win total, there are reasons for genuine optimism in Jerry Kill's program.
6. Michigan State's defense. The unit has earned their reputation. They play extremely physical, attacking football. As a result, the defense has yielded just 64 points in five contests, included spats with Boise State, Notre Dame, and Ohio State. Although Sparty lost two of those three, the defense is hardly to blame. Should Andrew Maxwell's receivers start catching some passes and making more plays like Keith Mumphery's spectacular touchdown against Ohio State, the Spartans could make a lot of noise.
7. The Resilient Performance of Bill O'Brien's Nittany Lions. Obviously it has been an unprecedented year in Happy Valley. Few would have faulted the program for flopping in the aftermath of the Sandusky scandal, including the notable transfers of top receiver Justin Brown, elite running back Silas Redd, and All-Big Ten specialist Anthony Fera. The second half of the opener versus Ohio - in which the Bobcats scored on every possession except for a missed 39-yd field goal - and Sam Ficken's nightmare performance versus Virginia in a 17-16 loss (1-for-5 on field goals, an extra point blocked) suggested that the season might be as painful as expected by many. But O'Brien's team has responded in a big way. They clobbered Navy, handled a tough Temple squad, and exacted revenge on Illinois, embarrassing them in Champaign. Although the Nitts will not play past late November, they have a leading candidate for Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year - LB Michael Mauti - accompanied by an exciting mix of rookies and veterans on a still-strong defensive side. Penn State could play spoiler in a big way and head toward an especially hard-earned seven win season in the process.
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For reference sake, I picked every game for each Big Ten team on July 13 this year. For whatever reason, I tend to do a much better job picking games before I see teams play than I do evaluating who should win the week of the game. Here are the standings I predicted (mind you this was picked before the Sandusky sanctions caused a large exodus from Penn State):
Leaders
Ohio State 10-2 (6-2)
Wisconsin 10-2 (6-2)
Purdue 7-5 (4-4)
Penn State 6-6 (4-4)
Illinois 5-7 (2-6)
Indiana 3-9 (0-8)
Legends
Michigan 9-3 (7-1)
Nebraska 10-2 (6-2)
Michigan State 9-3 (6-2)
Iowa 8-4 (4-4)
Northwestern 6-6 (3-5)
Minnesota 3-9 (1-7)
I feel good about Ohio State, Penn State, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, and Michigan State. It looks like I underestimated Northwestern, Minnesota, and Purdue while overvaluing both Wisconsin and Iowa. I'll check back in on these picks in a few weeks.
For this week's games, my mid-July picks:
@ Wisconsin 34, Illinois 10
Michigan State 24, @ Indiana 10
Michigan 30, @ Purdue 20
@ Ohio State 23, Nebraska 16
@ Penn State 19, Northwestern 17
For the year, my record sits at 40-12 (5-1).
Enjoy October's first football Saturday tomorrow!
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