I gave my basic understanding of power rankings in the NFL post. A very brief recap: power rankings should give you a sense for how well a team should do in a given contest, not what their record is so far in a given season. For example, through two games, Indiana was 2-0 while Penn State was 0-2. Given only their records, one would assume that Indiana would handle Penn State head-to-head. Power rankings tell a different story, one that gives us a sense of how good a team actually is. Here's my take on the Big Ten teams at the approximate midpoint of the college football season.
1. Ohio State (7-0, 3-0). The Buckeyes have made it clear: even if they're the class of the Big Ten this year, they're simply not going to win pretty. Since obliterating Miami (OH) in their opener, Ohio State struggled to put away Central Florida, needed a horribly botched coverage by Cal on a late-game third-and-long to escape, got past Alabama-Birmingham, won in East Lansing by one, allowed an embarrassing 38 points at home versus Nebraska, and then turned in their worst performance versus Indiana - a 52-49 victory - since the schools tied....in 1990. Still, winning matters and Ohio State has the conference's best two conference wins so far this year over Michigan State and Nebraska. Braxton Miller has proved to be the explosive force many envisioned when he committed to the program, and the rushing attack has been explosive. The defense needs a ton of work, but with the kind of offensive firepower the club has exhibited, they can get away with allowing some points.
Ohio State should have no trouble handling Purdue this weekend. However, the Ineligibowl at Penn State the following weekend could be the (albeit very confusing) game of the year in the conference. If Ohio State beats Penn State, they should head to Madison at 10-0 before hosting Michigan in the finale.
2. Penn State (4-2, 2-0). When Sam Ficken missed his fourth field goal in a devastating one-point loss to Virginia in Week Two, many observers punted on the Nittany Lions season. Since that contest, the club has turned in a run of spirited performances that have turned the season around. Led by All-American-caliber linebacking duo Michael Mauti and Gerald Hodges, the Penn State defense has weathered a miserable off-season to produce excellent results. The loss to Ohio looks better every week (the Bobcats are 7-0), and senior quarterback Matt McGloin has turned from Big Ten laughing stock to respectable starter. It has been a truly incredible turn of events that has new boss Bill O'Brien neck and neck with Urban Meyer for Coach of the Year honors. At this juncture, I wonder if Silas Redd, Justin Brown, and Anthony Fera would be interested in coming back to Happy Valley.
The schedule the rest of the way includes plenty of winnable games. After a trip to the nightmare that is Kinnick Stadium, Penn State hosts Ohio State, enjoys back-to-back trips to Purdue and Nebraska, then closes the season returning home for Indiana and Wisconsin. Any win total between six and nine makes sense. For now, the defense looks good enough to carry the team.
3. Michigan (4-2, 2-0). At this point, I still feel like we don't know too terribly much about this Michigan team. They were unsurprisingly obliterated by an elite Alabama team. They struggled to beat Air Force at home, hardly an embarrassing result against a solid Falcons squad. They crushed Massachusetts. Then they played a turnover-filled contest in South Bend, ultimately losing an ugly 13-6 game to a strong Irish team. Since then, they have outscored Purdue and Illinois 89-13. It's clear that Michigan has the ability to produce a great season; it's also clear that they're not an elite squad. It's also clear that the losing records of the Rich Rodriguez regime are a thing of the past. Denard Robinson has produced a number of beautiful plays, but was completely overmatched against Alabama and turned the ball over five times versus Notre Dame.
We'll know how to rate this Michigan team 10 days from now, after they host Michigan State and travel to Lincoln. If they win both of those games, they should head to Columbus with a top-10 ranking. We'll also know where to rate Robinson in Michigan lore after the next month and a half.
4. Nebraska (4-2, 1-1). Nebraska played a patsy non-conference schedule. Their only decent opponent - UCLA - beat the Huskers. Since then, they enjoyed a tremendous comeback versus Wisconsin, then were blasted for 63 in Columbus. Nebraska has the look of a good team that is truly volatile. Because they miss Illinois, Indiana, and Purdue, they play easily the Big Ten's toughest conference schedule with only a date against a vastly improved Minnesota squad as a reliably likely win. The Nebraska offense has not struggled in the slightest. But the defense just does not resemble the blackshirt defenses of old.
5. Wisconsin (5-2, 2-1). Wisconsin's dreadful start to the season look a whole lot different in mid-October. Squeaking past Northern Iowa is still poor, but losing in Corvalis to Oregon State by three looks just fine as the Beavers are undefeated. Even Utah State looks strong with only a two-point loss to Wisconsin and a three-point loss at Brigham Young. Wisconsin has taken care of business versus Illinois and Purdue and positioned themselves nicely to turn in a solid season. Their lack of a quarterback - both Danny O'Brien and Joel Stave have thrown at least 75 passes - could cripple them however.
6. Michigan State (4-3, 1-2). Easily the conference's most disappointing team. They opened the year with a solid, conservative win over Boise State. Unfortunately, that set the tone for the season more than many expected. The passing offense is yet to click and there is plenty of blame to spread around. New quarterback Andrew Maxwell has left Spartan fans pining for Kirk Cousins. Established, reliable receivers like BJ Cunningham, Keshawn Martin and even Keith Nichol are nowhere to be found. The new batch of receivers has been terribly inconsistent, save for big tight end Dion Sims. Le'Veon Bell has produced in a way that reminds many of former workhorse back Javon Ringer, but the lack of a passing attack has allowed opposing defenses to focus on Bell.
Michigan State absolutely must find a way to win at least one of their next three contests at Michigan, at Wisconsin, and home for Nebraska. Thankfully, their defense has produced a strong season and should keep them in every game going forward.
7. Northwestern (6-1, 2-1). Despite an inconsistent aerial attack, Northwestern's ability to run the ball has propelled the team to an excellent start. Although their BCS-conference slate features the worst of those conference (Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Boston College), Northwestern nonetheless swept their non-conference foes. They handled Big Ten cellar-dwellers Indiana and Minnesota behind versatile leader Kain Colter and stud runner Venric Mark. Thei only loss required three fourth quarter touchdowns from Penn State. They are unlikely to be favored in their next four games ahead of the season-ending clash with Illinois, but Northwestern has finally done exactly what they needed to in advance of the conference schedule.
Thing is, for the first time in many, many years, Northwestern is winning because of their defense, not in spite of it. If the defense continues to perform, the Wildcats could reach eight or nine wins.
8. Iowa (4-2, 2-0). The Hawkeyes would be much, much higher on this list had they not crumbled at home in the final minute versus Central Michigan. Excepting that game, they beat Northern Illinois at a neutral site, lost a tough rivalry game versus Iowa State, beat Northern Iowa and Minnesota at home by multiple scores, and enjoyed a road win at Michigan State.
But choking at home against Central Michigan simply cannot happen. Iowa is definitely good enough to compete in every remaining game they have. Then again, they are shaky enough that bowl eligibility is still a serious question.
9. Purdue (3-3, 0-2). The Boilermakers were a trendy pick before the season to make some serious noise this year. In their non-conference games, Purdue looked strong. They crushed their sub-par competition and played Notre Dame tight to the final gun. However, their first two Big Ten contests have been miserable home flops versus Michigan and Wisconsin. Their defense was strong before their bye week, but they have given up 41 points per game since then. Robert Marve deserves kudos for his toughness in playing through a torn ACL, but the quarterback play of Marve and Caleb TerBush has been only adequate. The offense seems to lack an identity, something that is crippling an otherwise promising season.
They only have two home games remaining; while they should handle Indiana in their finale, Penn State will be tough for them. They're a near-lock to lose this weekend in Columbus, and while they could win any of their other three road contests (Minnesota, Iowa, and Illinois), it would hardly be stunning to see them at home in December.
10. Minnesota (4-2, 0-2). Despite needing triple overtime at UNLV, Minnesota took care of business, running the table in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Marqueis Gray has played strong football, both running and passing effectively. And Max Shortell has filled in nicely for Gray at quarterback. Although they lost in Iowa City and home versus Northwestern, there's still a chance that they can find two more wins and prolong their season. Even if they don't win another game, they'll have their best record since 2009. Here's hoping Jerry Kill's seizure issues don't prevent him from coaching the rest of the way and the team responds to his inspirational leadership.
11. Indiana (2-4, 0-3). Indiana is most likely on its way to another dreadful record. But this record just won't feel the same as some of those in the past. They lost by two versus Ball State and 15 at Northwestern. However, they played two of their best games in many years with both Michigan State and Ohio State needing big second halves to escape with tight victories. If they can play with that type of enthusiasm the rest of the way, the Hoosiers could get to four or fine wins. They will continue to have to overcome a talent gap in their remaining contests, but they should be commended for playing with such resilience.
12. Illinois (2-5, 0-3). Illinois has basically been the antithesis of Indiana. Their only wins are home games over Western Michigan and Charleston Southern. They were crushed by non-conference foes Arizona State and Louisiana Tech. Continuing that trend, they have been outscored 111-21 in three Big Ten match-ups against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Should they continue along this path, first-year coach Tim Beckman may need to start worrying about whether he will survive his new contract.
To be fair, the schedule does get much more forgiving the rest of the way. All five losses so far have come to teams ranked in the top 40 of Jeff Sagarin's college football ratings. Conversely, only one remaining opponent - Ohio State - is inside the top 40.
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