I've gotten a hard time over the past few years for becoming bullish on my favorite teams. I picked the Cubs for a fourth place 73-89 finish (apparently generous). I thought the Bulls would have a great season before losing to Miami in the Conference Finals (plenty realistic before Rose's knee injury). I thought the Canucks had a real chance to take the final step of winning the Cup this past year. Seems pretty optimistic to me.
Yet, I admit that in my push toward objectivity, I've found myself with less senseless hope for my teams. There's just something about looking through the Cubs' lineup before the season and being unable to convince myself that they can be competitive. It's a tough feeling but one I appreciate in that more realistic expectations enables me to be pleasantly surprised.
With that in mind, here's my look at the 2012 Bears through five games. I'll go position by position, first sharing my pre-season expectations on that position followed by my current thoughts on that group. In less-than-traditional fashion, I'm going to start on the lines and work away. Today I'll do the offense; tomorrow, the defense.
NOTE: I like to use a non-inflated grading scheme. I will be using a scale from zero to ten. For reference, zero represents abject failure, a unit that is clearly the worst in the league. Use the 2004 Bears quarterbacks for comparison, the incredible four-headed monster of Chad Hutchinson, Craig Krenzel, Jonathan Quinn, and Rex Grossman that produced an incredible average game of 15.6 completions on 29.4 attempts with 0.6 touchdowns and 1 interception. On the other end of the spectrum, ten represents the 1985 Bears linebacking corps of Mike Singletary, Otis Wilson, and Wilbur Marshall, a unit that is decidedly the class of the league, a combination of big plays and consistency.
Offensive Guards/Center
Pre-Season Expectation: 3.0
I expected Roberto Garza to be a solid, average center. He has been a rock-solid contributor since he came over from Atlanta and should have another year or two of decent production. Lance Louis was a bit tougher to peg. I like Louis a lot, reasoning that he could be an average guard given the chance to blossom in the role. He was clearly outclassed as a tackle last year, but has shown plenty of encouraging signs inside. Chris Spencer, on the other hand, was the worst offensive lineman in all of football last season according to Pro Football Focus. He was bad enough that I expected him to lose his starting spot, and maybe even his job. Needless to say, I expected him to be horrific. When he won the left guard job coming out of camp, I was unhappy. I figured this would be one of the worst - but not the worst - position on the team.
Current Evaluation: 4.0
Garza and Louis have been difficult to notice, which is to say that they've largely done their jobs as interior linemen. If this was only evaluating those two, they'd likely be a 5.0 or 5.5. But Spencer got to play three games and produced predictably terrible results. Had I done this evaluation after the St. Louis game, the position group score would likely be a 2.5 or 3.0. But with two games of Chilo Rachal, the interior of the line has stabilized. Rachal is unlikely to be a special guard, but he's a great bet to represent a consistent improvement over Spencer. As such, this group is currently below-average, but not painfully so. At the same time, there's not much room for improvement. This unit deserves some credit for opening large running lanes in Jacksonville.
Offensive Tackles
Pre-Season Expectation: 1.5
I was still optimistic that Gabe Carimi could be an average right tackle in the NFL, but I also assumed he would experience some rookie growing pains after missing most of his rookie season with another knee injury. My optimism for J'Marcus Webb was substantially less. I don't begrudge Webb for being one of the few worst starting left tackles in the NFL; he's a seventh-round pick who was thrust right into a starting job on the offensive live's toughest spot. And it's not as if he's ever had an excellent left guard playing next to him. Nevertheless, the fact remains that Webb is easily one of the worst left tackles in the league and he is experienced enough that the massive improvement needed to make him approach average production just isn't coming.
Current Evaluation: 2.5
Carimi has been unspectacular at times, bad at others. He was particularly dreadful on the first drive of the third quarter in Jacksonville, committing a holding penalty, then back-to-back false start penalties near the end zone that effectively negated any chance of scoring a touchdown. However, outside of that drive, he has held his own. Webb has been the bottom-five LT I expected, but he has gone long stretches with playing adequately (obviously not in the Green Bay debacle). He might even be pushing his way out of that bottom-five range, but I don't think he's out of the woods just yet.
Tight Ends
Pre-Season Expectation: 4.0
Kellen Davis has had moments where he looks like an above-average NFL tight end given his blocking prowess and ability to use his body in the passing game. I thought he was ready to take the leap. Matt Spaeth is a reliable #2 with his good blocking and reliable hands. Kyle Adams barely made the roster, so expectations were low. I consider Evan Rodriguez a running back.
Current Evaluation: 2.0
Well, Davis simply has not improved his consistency at all. He began the season by badly missing a block against Indianapolis that led to a sack, and while he had made some nice catches - especially on an underthrown ball in Dallas where he stole an interception - I believe he has one drop in each game. Spaeth has been a non-factor in the passing game. While Adams has been a solid contributor, there's not much rescuing this unit by the third-stringer.
Wide Receivers
Pre-Season Expectation: 8.0
Despite off-the-field concerns, Brandon Marshall easily represents the best Bears wide receiver of my lifetime and quite possibly ever. With a formal diagnosis of his Borderline Personality Disorder, Marshall seems more confident and relaxed and should be in line for a great reunion year with Cutler. I loved Alshon Jeffery in college. After Cutler's injury caused the 2011 season to unravel, I was hoping we'd be able to get Jeffery with our first-round pick. We know what happened next: Jeffery put on 30 pounds, so Phil Emery traded up and scooped up a potential #1 WR in the middle of the second round. Tremendous value. And as the second or third banana, Jeffery should be great. Most importantly, he arrived on a veteran roster in a veteran position group where leadership should keep that should keep the weight from being an issue again. Earl Bennett is the safety valve, an exceptionally reliable receiver who occasionally produces big games (like 2011 in Philadelphia). He would have been a strong second option opposite Marshall; as the #3, he should have a huge season facing favorable matchups. Devin Hester, the former nominal #1, gets to slide into his best role as the fourth option. Hester can take 25 or 30 snaps each game, stretching the field and opening up underneath routes for the new big targets. Eric Weems should be primarily a special teams player. Dane Sanzenbacher likely isn't long for the roster. Johnny Knox seems highly unlikely to play this year.
Current Evaluation: 9.0
Marshall has, improbably, been even better than advertised. He is on pace for 112 receptions for 1,587 yards with 10 touchdowns. Marshall is at least a 9.5 on his own. It's still hard to believe he was acquired for just two third-round picks, even with his off the field issues. Jeffery has been excellent as well, particularly for a rookie starter, having lost those 30 pounds. Entering the bye, he is on pace for 45 grabs for 589 yards and six touchdowns. Unfortunately, Jeffery broke his hand catching his second touchdown of the season and he will be out until mid-November. Fortunately, the depth described above should significantly soften the blow as Bennett missed two games with a hand injury of his own but should return for the Monday night clash with Detroit. Obviously he has not produced much, but it's hard to fault him for an injury. Hester has produced roughly what one would expect from a fourth option, unsurprisingly having taken advantage of his speed to make the catch of the year thus far. Sanzenbacher and Weems have been non-factors as expected and hopefully Knox will be able to play football again. It's a shame that Knox is still injured as he'd be a real treat to throw into the passing game given the injuries.
Quarterbacks
Pre-Season Expectation: 7.0
I'm much higher on Jay than most football fans. Some of this clearly stems from my experience as a Bears and Penn State fan. When Daryll Clark (who I absolutely love) is the best quarterback I watched for a decade, Cutler seems like Joe Montana by comparison. Jay definitely has his faults: his extremely aggressive style of play often leads to interceptions and he has less-than-ideal leadership qualities. But overall, he's a tremendous asset, arguably the most important player on the team. He has the ability to make game-changing throws that few quarterbacks can make. He is a fierce competitor - for me, most expertly shown by his helicopter touchdown run against Detroit in 2009. And while he complains about his porous offensive line, it hasn't changed his style of play to the extent that it negates his best attribute: his ability to make big, downfield throws. He takes more hits than any other quarterback in the league in order to make the big pass, and I love him for that. I didn't want to see Jason Campbell, but his presence gave me comfort.
Current Evaluation: 7.5
The Packers have Jay's number. There's no way around that stinker of a performance. St. Louis was an underwhelming showing, although Cortland Finnegan's interception was hardly Jay's fault. His other three games have been masterpieces, especially Indianapolis. He'd have an even higher rating were it not for the terrible pick-six on opening day. Cutler has been the leader of (and reason for) the most productive Bears offense in many years. When he first came to Chicago, he was a good deep ball thrower. Now, he's very, very good. In a similar manner, when he arrived he was inconsistent, though hardly bad, on shorter passes; his consistency has improved dramatically. Cutler reliably turns in a couple of clunkers each season. Thankfully, he also turns in a number of games where he is the difference in a big win. He could absolutely improve on this rating by the end of the season.
Running Backs
Pre-Season Expectation: 9.0
Matt Forte is, and has been, an elite back. After ending last season with an injury but then finally getting paid, I expected great production from an inspired player. Michael Bush looked like a better version of Marion Barber. Evan Rodriguez looked to be a bit miscast as primarily a blocker, but he looks like a good athlete likely to contribute more than any statistics show. It seemed a bit tacky to cut Khalil Bell after he rejected a pay cut, but that's the nature of the business. Armando Allen getting beat out by Lorenzo Booker for the #3 job, then immediately making the team because of Booker's injury easily rates as the most bizarre off-season move. I didn't expect much from either.
Current Evaluation: 9.5
It has been almost impossible to tell that Forte suffered a severe knee injury last year. He has been strong and quick in his running. His pass catching is still tremendous as exemplified by his one-handed beauty against Indianapolis. It's difficult to name a back in the league I would unequivocally take over Forte at this point. He has exceeded my lofty expectations. Bush has exceeded my expectations even more. He has proved to be an excellent compliment to Forte and capable of carrying the full load. This isn't news but bears saying regardless: it's incredibly difficult to find a backup who can be a good feature back too. Allen has played sparingly, but ran well in the waning minutes of the Jacksonville game. He's primarily a special teamer still. Bell returned, but hasn't been a factor. Rodriguez looked very good in the first few games of his rookie year, but a non-severe knee injury kept him out for a few games. We'll see how he returns.
Kicker (include coverage unit)
Pre-Season Expectation: 9.5
Robbie Gould is the best Bears kicker ever. Naturally, I expect him to be among the top few kickers in the league. His placekicking is his calling card, and Dave Toub's coverage unit rarely struggles.
Current Evaluation: 10.0
Gould has been perfect. He hasn't missed a field goal. Just as importantly, in five games, only 11 of his kickoffs have been returned. Of those 11, the longest return allowed has been 28 yards, the second shortest long in the league. This unit cannot reasonably be expected to produce better than it has so far.
Kick Returners
Pre-Season Expectation: 8.0
Hester have never been as good returning kickoffs as he is on punts. Unfortunately, there aren't really other options on this roster. Still, he's Devin Hester. Operating full-time on kickoff returns in a Toub unit, he should be able to get one or two big ones.
Current Evaluation: 5.5
As a unit, they just haven't been all that productive. There's still plenty of hope given Hester and they have been middle-of-the-pack, not poor. Thankfully, with the frequency of touchbacks in the NFL now and the smothering play of the defense, the Bears return unit simply hasn't had a lot of opportunities. Hopefully that doesn't change.
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